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Maybe another Wind record to come today

  • 18-11-2009 6:05pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭ Sponge Bob


    Not quite at peak demand wgich is between 5:30 and 6 nowadays and 1020Mw of Wind is in the grid as I type ( the record was 1063Mw)

    wind_gen_18_Nov_2009_16_45.jpg

    Which of course handsomely beats LAST WEDNESDAY shown below.

    I do not recall seeing any of those green muppets about then this happened , or since :(

    wind_gen_10_Nov_2009.jpg
    Tagged:


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭ D'Peoples Voice


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Not quite at peak demand wgich is between 5:30 and 6 nowadays and 1020Mw of Wind is in the grid as I type ( the record was 1063Mw)


    Which of course handsomely beats LAST WEDNESDAY shown below.

    I do not recall seeing any of those green muppets about then this happened , or since :(
    the funny thing about these wind records, is that to my memory NEVER has the amount of wind power generated ever exceeded the dispatchable MARGIN.
    In other words, the wind power harnessed is always surplus to our requirements. Assume we produce 1,000 MW right now, this minute, from wind power, and our national demand right now is 4,000 MW, I would put money down that our electricity production right now will be 5,000MW plus. Its something I've only noticed recently and no doubt in a few years we will be investigating. Its bloody depressing as I'm such a strong supporter of wind power but why is the dispatchable margin so high!
    Of course, people will say we need a dispatchable margin in case a power station closes down suddenly, but I'm scepical.


  • Registered Users Posts: 667 ✭✭✭ Altreab


    the funny thing about these wind records, is that to my memory NEVER has the amount of wind power generated ever exceeded the dispatchable MARGIN.

    Of course, people will say we need a dispatchable margin in case a power station closes down suddenly, but I'm scepical.

    In that case can anyone say how often a plant goes down suddenly? How long were they down for? How long to restart to full production again? All these would be vital to know before deciding what dispatchable margin to have on a longterm basis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭ D'Peoples Voice


    Altreab wrote: »
    In that case can anyone say how often a plant goes down suddenly? How long were they down for? How long to restart to full production again? All these would be vital to know before deciding what dispatchable margin to have on a longterm basis.

    :D:D no thats not what i meant,
    I mean the dispatchable margin is not consistent on a daily basis,
    surely comparing two Mondays, you should have the same level of dispatchable margin at every comparable time period, likewise comparing two tuesdays etc.
    But our dispatchable margin, from what i see, is very inconsistent from one Monday to another Monday, very much like wind power, do you see where I'm going with this.
    I want to know that when I'm going with someone like Airtricity that I am in fact saving CO2, but if all wind power is doing is accounting for dispatchable margin, whats the point?
    I would like someone to confirm that this is not the case, and that there are predefined set dispatchable margins set for each peak/oof-peak for each day at the start of every week, and then adjusted as unexpected events occur.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 20,995 Mod ✭✭✭✭ bk


    Of course, people will say we need a dispatchable margin in case a power station closes down suddenly, but I'm scepical.

    It is the other way around, you need the power station on standby if the wind stops blowing (or blows too hard!!).

    That is why wind power is such a scam, you always need almost equal back up to it as the wind can suddenly stop and power stations can't be quickly powered up and down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ ardmacha


    This why we need
    1. smart metering
    2. some quick start powerstations


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 rainbowdash


    ardmacha wrote: »
    This why we need
    1. smart metering
    2. some quick start powerstations

    Yep, when we have loads of wind (or any other excess) energy it should be so cheap that we all turn on our tumble dryers, immersions, electric heaters, ovens etc. etc.

    Basic supply and demand, its not that complicated and people will adjust to it easily enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,781 ✭✭✭ Carawaystick


    ardmacha wrote: »
    This why we need
    1. smart metering
    2. some quick start powerstations

    quick start power stations are very expensive to operate/build/maintain pick any one for any type of station.
    Peaking plant are inefficient so cost a lot to operate,
    hydro costs a lot to build and there's few enough places to build here.
    baseload plant suffer loads of wear starting up.

    People will find it hard to adjust to a random variation in the cost of electricity, if there was a sense or reason to the wind power generated then people could adjust.
    If you put on a dishwasher, how will you know what the price of electricity is going to be in 90 mins?
    Wind power has dropped from 700MW being generated to 300MW in less than an hour at least once.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ ardmacha


    I am by no means expert in power stations, but it seems to me that if there is a demand then rapid start power stations can be designed. These will be more expensive but need not be operated for long periods. If the wind power is geographically distributed and if there is an adequate grid then it should not all die at once. Not all device are suitable for use with variable pricing, but things like really well insulated water heating might be and things like electric car charging might in the future.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 rainbowdash


    quick start power stations are very expensive to operate/build/maintain pick any one for any type of station.
    Peaking plant are inefficient so cost a lot to operate,
    hydro costs a lot to build and there's few enough places to build here.
    baseload plant suffer loads of wear starting up.

    People will find it hard to adjust to a random variation in the cost of electricity, if there was a sense or reason to the wind power generated then people could adjust.
    If you put on a dishwasher, how will you know what the price of electricity is going to be in 90 mins?
    Wind power has dropped from 700MW being generated to 300MW in less than an hour at least once.

    That sounds like a fairly scarce occurance, if that is the extreme scenario then it should be possible to manage a solution back from that. If I could have a billing system that was say 30% cheaper than standard and in return for this I could be subjected to say a maximum of 24 hours of non supply during a year because of lack of power then I might be able to live with that.

    The key is balancing the load with the right mix of tariffs and metering etc.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭ Sponge Bob


    Wind is a mess. Accept that . In one balmy week in October it hardly ever went above 200mw for days .


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,781 ✭✭✭ Carawaystick


    ardmacha wrote: »
    I am by no means expert in power stations, but it seems to me that if there is a demand then rapid start power stations can be designed. These will be more expensive but need not be operated for long periods. If the wind power is geographically distributed and if there is an adequate grid then it should not all die at once. Not all device are suitable for use with variable pricing, but things like really well insulated water heating might be and things like electric car charging might in the future.

    If new design fast starting power plant are built but only used infrequently how can any sane return on investment happen?

    Ireland is a small area and has only weak interconnection to Britain with another interconnection planned. Yet for about a week before Christmas in 2006 there was no wind in Ireland or Britain. You might remember the closure of Heathrow that caused travel chaos several years. How geographically spread do you imagine Donegal to London is?


    If I could have a billing system that was say 30% cheaper than standard and in return for this I could be subjected to say a maximum of 24 hours of non supply during a year [\quote]
    I get about that level of non supply for the existing price. When I asked esb networks they say there was a fault but they don't know what caused it. when I ask if they'll find out they say no. This happens almost bimonthly.


    The drop of 4/7ths of wind power in an hour was a bit of an outlier but as the wind power increases, those 4\7ths become a much larger amount of reserve to have ready to go in an hour. Most normal cycling plant have restrictions on re-starting so a drop in wind shortly after the cycling plant turn off needs another backup system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ ardmacha


    If new design fast starting power plant are built but only used infrequently how can any sane return on investment happen?

    Once again I am no expert. But in principle there could exist a technology that had relatively low capital cost, relatively high per unit cost and a quick start up. Investment in such plant might have to be made by investors who also owned wind plant.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 20,995 Mod ✭✭✭✭ bk


    ardmacha wrote: »
    Once again I am no expert. But in principle there could exist a technology that had relatively low capital cost, relatively high per unit cost and a quick start up. Investment in such plant might have to be made by investors who also owned wind plant.

    That is the point, no such technology exists.

    Dams are the only real quick spin up power source, but they are damn expensive to build, can destroy an area and we have pretty much damned the good locations already.

    Next best are gas power stations, but they still take too long to spin up to support wind and they aren't cheap.

    Go talk to any engineer who works in the power industry about wind power and watch them get very angry about it very quickly. They'll go into detail on why it is so unreliable and basically a scam and why it will never produce more then 20% of our power needs. You will always need at least 80% of your power to come from a steady base load power stations, either fossil fuel burners (coal, gas, etc.) or Nuclear.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭ Sponge Bob


    Wind is at best an opportunity technology , when blowing it should pump ( spirit of ireland scheme) or generate hydrogen for hydrogen cars ( that do not exist yet bar a couple of beemers) and when not blowing it should not count for anything in a grid sense . Daft economics propounded by green fundamentalist idiots like Eamon Ryan :(

    Tidal energy ( starting in 5 years time) looks better , the minimum performance is not as low . Wind in the past 10 days ranged from 1020KW to 20KW across the whole state .

    How can anybody plan for such variability :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 Aidan1


    That is the point, no such technology exists.

    It does, it's called OCGT.
    How can anybody plan for such variability?

    With large scale interconnection to the rest of the EU, as much dispatchable renewables as possible (SoI isn't renewable), and a robust domestic grid.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 rainbowdash


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Wind is a mess. Accept that . In one balmy week in October it hardly ever went above 200mw for days .

    Oil and Coail are a mess too.
    • They are both running out
    • We are at the mercy of other, often volatile, nations for supply
    • The price fluctuates wildly and we could end up in real bother
    Wind is not the total solutution but we need to learn to work with it better. Smart meters are crucial - lots of spare capacity, we use all the appliances we have flexibility with.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 20,995 Mod ✭✭✭✭ bk


    Aidan1 wrote: »
    It does, it's called OCGT.

    Yes, but OCGT is very expensive to build. What do you think is going to happen, Bord Gais build a very expensive OCGT plant and then let it ideal when the wind blows and leave Airtricity earn all the money?

    No Bord Gais are going to want to run it all the time and undercut Airtricitys prices.

    The problem with wind is that you have to build almost equal amount of standby power generation, at great expense and then leave it ideal while the wind blows.

    Sure we can do that, if you don't mind seeing your electricity bill double from what it currently is.
    Oil and Coail are a mess too.
    • They are both running out
    • We are at the mercy of other, often volatile, nations for supply
    • The price fluctuates wildly and we could end up in real bother

    Oil yes, coal not so much.

    Of course coal is being used up, but there are hundreds of years of reserves, estimated to be at least 250 years. Hopefully we will have fusion power by then or switched to Fast Breeder and alternative Nuclear Fission reactors by then.

    Much of the worlds coal supplies come from China, which isn't particularly volatile, we even have very significant coal reserves here in Ireland and the UK, we just don't bother with it as it is cheaper to get from China.

    Coal prices don't fluctuate much at all, unlike Oil.

    I hate to say it as coal is such a dirty and polluting source of energy, but it is cheap and easily available.


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