Has the worse yet to come for us all???

Antrim_Man

Euro zone exits recession with 0.4% growth

[URL="javascript:showPlayer('eurozone_av.html')"] [/URL] Friday, 13 November 2009 20:59
The euro zone economy jumped out of recession in the third quarter, data showed today, but with slightly less spring than expected after the area's top three economies fell short of market forecasts.
Gross domestic product in the euro zone rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after five consecutive quarters of shrinking output, but was 4.1% lower year-on-year. Economists had on average forecast quarterly growth of 0.5% and a 3.9% annual decline.
Germany, France and Italy all reported a third-quarter increase in economic output, but the German 0.7% quarterly growth was below expectations of 0.8%, the French 0.3% increase only half of what was expected and the Italian 0.6% fell short of the 0.7% consensus.
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More details on the German and French growth here
The growth ends the deepest economic downturn in Europe since World War Two, brought on by a global financial crisis, but economists say recovery is likely to remain fragile.
The European Commission forecast earlier this month that fourth-quarter growth would slow to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2009 and then to 0.1% in the first two quarters of 2010.
Growth is seen accelerating steadily from the third quarter of 2010 to reach 0.5% in the second quarter of 2011.
The European figures compare with a 0.9% improvement in third-quarter economic output in the US. Japan already exited from recession in the second quarter with 0.6% growth.
The challenge policymakers face now is deciding when to end the fiscal and monetary stimulus credited with averting a steeper slump and limiting the cumulative loss of GDP to five percentage points in the EU since GDP started falling in the second quarter of 2008.
That, the European Commission says, is three times as big as average output losses in three previous recessions since the 1970s.
While the largest economies of Europe are growing again, Britain, Ireland, Spain and others have yet to do so even if there is evidence that the worst of the crisis has passed.
Spain today reported a third-quarter GDP drop of 0.3%, versus a second quarter where the contraction was a far heftier 1.1%.
Beyond the euro currency area, Britain reported its sixth quarter of shrinkage in a row in the third-quarter, when GDP fell 0.4% versus the previous one. But Ireland's economy shrank at an annual rate of 7.4% in the second quarter.
On Europe's eastern flank, accustomed to far racier growth rates before the downturn, Czech GDP rose 0.8% in the third quarter and Hungarian GDP fell 1.8% in the same period, both compared to the second quarter.
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With the next budget to be a stinker, what's the betting the ECB up interest rates soon and really shaft us in Ireland

mitchsantos

I think the economy will get better soon and we just have to think positive.
It throws up an opportunity to and the necessity of enhancing your knowledge base. The intervening time in getting into jobs or in getting a new job can be utilized in acquiring additional qualification to enhance your suitability in your area of expertise. It is also absolutely necessary to equip yourself with higher qualification to get ahead in competition. It is the only way to beat the blues of recession.

Antrim_Man

mitchsantos wrote: »

I think the economy will get better soon and we just have to think positive.
It throws up an opportunity to and the necessity of enhancing your knowledge base. The intervening time in getting into jobs or in getting a new job can be utilized in acquiring additional qualification to enhance your suitability in your area of expertise. It is also absolutely necessary to equip yourself with higher qualification to get ahead in competition. It is the only way to beat the blues of recession.

My point is next year we will have less money due to the next budget and our one saving grace the interest rates will probably rise as well, resulting in a very hard year ahead.

Euroland

No worries, the worse is over

GoldenTickets

Nah, there's nothing to worry about. Once the Public Service wages are cut in the next budget that'll sort the economy out. We'll be laughing then and there'll be another celtic tiger I'd say.

Happy days are just round the corner, once the public servants get rode. Sure that's what nearly everyone on boards is saying, so it must be true.

Antrim_Man

Euroland wrote: »

No worries, the worse is over

But not for the man in the street

ixoy

Look all we need to do is tax the rich and shoot the bankers and everything will be fine! It's easy! Reckon I'll ask for a 10% pay increase in January when it will all definitely be sorted out.

PaddyThai

There's a time for joking and there's a time for seriousness.

I fear many people do not realise how serious the situation is. Some may feel their situation is secure but others are facing catastrophe everyday.

RichieO

It is a lot more serious than is realised, because Ireland built a house of cards based on a paper economy with a casino mentality... There is no large manufacturing industry base to get moving again as in Germany and France... I am not a pessimist, the fact is things are bad here and the government is NOT sending the right signals for investment nor is it putting down foundations for building a reliable economy...

The way out is up, but you cannot build up without a solid foundation...Right?

jimmmy

PaddyThai wrote: »

There's a time for joking and there's a time for seriousness.

I fear many people do not realise how serious the situation is. Some may feel their situation is secure but others are facing catastrophe everyday.

+1. It will be a tough year or two at least.

Hasschu

Germany and France are not Ireland. In Germany and France homes are for living in, not a debt overburdened road to riches as in Ireland and Spain or a line of credit cash box as in the USA. Germany has a workforce very well educated in science and engineering as well as a high regard for skilled manual workers. In some areas of high tech manufacturing Germany has over 80% of the world market only Japan comes close in market dominance. It is not surprising that German exports have held up very well as many others declined markedly. Social cohesion is also very important, in too many countries employees are seen as disposable commodities. The Germans have the 13th months pay system, essentially a bonus if the company is profitable and an 8% wage cut if it is not. No fuss no muss efficient and effective. It should be noted that the cash for wrecks stimulus in Germany, France, UK and USA has been the driver of improved output figures. It should also be noted that this was a coordinated effort to produce good news and lift the spirits. The downside is that moves business to the here and now and results in poorer sales when the stimulus ends. In the US unemployment is rising and bankruptcies both commercial and individual are rising. The recovery will be rather slow in the heavily indebted countries.

syberspud

There is little question that economically, Ireland is pretty bunched. We top the league in terms of the economic fallout; huge GDP contraction, massive budget deficit leading to constrained public investment stemming from the hardcore domestic property, banking, retail collapse and associated rise in unemployment. Essentially a depression since we're looking at what, 12 or so straight quarters of contraction. One crumb of comfort is that our exports have held up so we will eventually return to growth albeit painfully slowly (and with very high unemployment) as we and the world deleverage. We surely won't be helped by our ludicrously high private debt - all 400 billion euro of it! :eek: And we all know the public debt is rapidly ballooning into the moneysphere as we type. Unfortunately, we're heavily indebted even by the atrocious standards of our neighbours.

The short to medium term picture is extremely ****ing grim. One thing is for sure, if I wasn't tied down to the place, I'd be out of here. This economy is dead for 5+ years.

Peering into the future however, we are a very small and relatively youthful country and enviably dynamic! We will adapt. We're counted among the most sustainable and peaceful societies on earth not to mention isolated or protected from the vast majority of the worlds ills. I'd take our position in the long term, over the US or Germany any day! The bigger they come, the harder they fall. And so forth. :pac: