Hurricane Fly -v- Solwhit

Nulty

Whats your selection at Punchestown?

Gotta say 11/4 - 3/1 is a ridiculous price for Solwhit. Im with him

Nulty

deccy15

won it easy too... don't see hurricane turnin the tables anytime soon after that!!!!!

Nulty

He'll be a better horse next time. But so may Solwhit.

Willabong

I thought Masterminded looked a bit heavy and unfit but will come on for the run, what do you think?

Whyno

Willabong wrote: »

I thought Masterminded looked a bit heavy and unfit but will come on for the run, what do you think?

Are you sure you werent looking at a camel on the wildlife channel.
The horse was fit and primed for his first run of the season. Will come on for the run as will Well Chief.MM clearly was ill at ease due to a problem which had him jumping out to his right.

Hopefully its only a minor thing and we get a rematch off levels in MArch. I`m a big fan of well chiefs and have been since he first arrived in the pipe stable.

kingofcastle

well chief and solwit in a nice little double today! Happy days

Nulty

Willabong wrote: »

I thought Masterminded looked a bit heavy and unfit but will come on for the run, what do you think?

I have only seen him run before at Punchestown and Cheltenham last year but he looked alright. 10lbs the difference means he wasn't up to his best.

Sure he jumped to the right but he finished 3rd 4l off Well Chief and the time was 11 sec slow (allow for going).

He was 4/7....silly price.

Willabong

I know 10lbs is a lot on that ground especially at Cheltenham but he was hyped up too much for his first run back. The price didn't reflect the challenge.

RichieLawlor

I'm inclined to forgive Hurricane Fly that run, he travelled really well like a horse who would be much better on a sound surface like mist of these ex flat horses. Also this being his first run since being gelded and he did look as if he needed it. Saying that Solwhit couldn't have been more impressive. But looking at him I suspect he will lack the nessecary speed to win a champion hurdle on better ground at the festival. I think the Aintree Hurdle may end up being his race similar to Al Eile. He skipped Cheltenham for aintree last season sound like connections think the same.

As for MasterMinded not being value, WellChief was 5lbs wrong strictly on the book so you would have to expect a peak form MM who was effectivly 5lbs well in at 4/7 a cracking bet and Nicholls horses don't normally lack on fitness. But obviously there was something up with horse, he hung like a gate and was totally one paced after jumping the last. Not the same horse.

Morgans

4/7 was an awful bet. You are making a lot of assumptions about and simply forgetting the horse's Punchestown run.

5lbs well in does not automatically equate to a 4/7 shot. Far far better 4/7 shots every day of the week.

A good piece of advice is to take the beating and learn from the mistake. Try not to be so dogmatic next time, especially at this of year.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

4/7 was an awful bet. You are making a lot of assumptions about and simply forgetting the horse's Punchestown run.

5lbs well in does not automatically equate to a 4/7 shot. Far far better 4/7 shots every day of the week.

A good piece of advice is to take the beating and learn from the mistake. Try not to be so dogmatic next time, especially at this of year.

I'm agreeing now that 4/7 was a bad bet. What I said was a peak form MM would be a cracking bet on those terms. The injury at Ascot has obviously affected him badly as he has not been the same horse since and possibly never will. The injury, the French bred theory ect ect.

I remember after he won at sandown last year that Ruby said he wants 2 and 1/2 miles and must go right handed, well it certainly looked like that yesterday. I really hope there is a problem and it's not that he has had enough already. He finished behind mahogany blaze yesterday which I make it has him running 2 stone below his best almost

Nulty

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I'm inclined to forgive Hurricane Fly that run, he travelled really well like a horse who would be much better on a sound surface like mist of these ex flat horses. Also this being his first run since being gelded and he did look as if he needed it. Saying that Solwhit couldn't have been more impressive. But looking at him I suspect he will lack the nessecary speed to win a champion hurdle on better ground at the festival. I think the Aintree Hurdle may end up being his race similar to Al Eile. He skipped Cheltenham for aintree last season sound like connections think the same.

As for MasterMinded not being value, WellChief was 5lbs wrong strictly on the book so you would have to expect a peak form MM who was effectivly 5lbs well in at 4/7 a cracking bet and Nicholls horses don't normally lack on fitness. But obviously there was something up with horse, he hung like a gate and was totally one paced after jumping the last. Not the same horse.

Well Chief may be 4 years MM's elder but he's only run 11 more races. Well Chief on top form could be just as good as MM. The QMCC was Well Chiefs first race in 2 years, he's obviously better than that run now.

Perhaps not only did MM run below his mark but Well Chief ran above his.

RichieLawlor

Nulty wrote: »

Well Chief may be 4 years MM's elder but he's only run 11 more races. Well Chief on top form could be just as good as MM. The QMCC was Well Chiefs first race in 2 years, he's obviously better than that run now.

Perhaps not only did MM run below his mark but Well Chief ran above his.

Well Chief at his best was rated in the high 170s and it's not thru bad performances than his rating has dropped. He may still be that good. I'm fairly sure he is better than his 163 rating.

The thing is Mahogany Blaze, who has no real pretensions to greatness, and Newmill, albeit a former champion chaser is nowhere near that standard now, finished very close in behind. I'm willing to accept MB has shown much improved form but how much is hard to say. Whoever you rate the race through it's not going to work out. Well Chief did all he had to do and MM has run far below his best, I thinks thats all we can say.

Morgans

You are of course assuming that Master Minded can still run to something like his best rating these days. He may well do, but apart from the Victor Chandler last year he has been nowhere near as impressive as he was at Chelt in 2007.

convert

I think Solwith won really well. He really seemed to travel on the ground and seems to like the course at Punchestown.

Hurricane seemed to be travelling well, and looked to be going easily, but when asked to go for home, he had nothing to give. The run should help bring him on, which I think was Mullins' plan as, in an interview earlier in the month, he said it wouldn't be the end of the world if Hurricane was beaten on Sunday.

Nulty

convert wrote: »

I think Solwith won really well. He really seemed to travel on the ground and seems to like the course at Punchestown.

Hurricane seemed to be travelling well, and looked to be going easily, but when asked to go for home, he had nothing to give. The run should help bring him on, which I think was Mullins' plan as, in an interview earlier in the month, he said it wouldn't be the end of the world if Hurricane was beaten on Sunday.

Mullins also said he was ready to run. Whether that means he was at his best (considering it was fto) or that the horse hadn't got any other plans for the weekend, I don't know. Solwhit was hugely underestimated, at least by the market. Well, they copped on at the off. What was he - 7/4? I got 3/1.

I'm just really pissed off I didn't take the 7/1 about him for the CH. I've been looking at it all summer and forgot the result at Punchestown would kill the value.

convert

I thought he looked ready to run, and that connections were hoping for a good run. Meh, doesn't really matter anyway, it's all past. He didn't win, and if he came out of the race alright, he should come on from it and only time will tell by how much...

corny

I thought i read somewhere Mullins left quite a bit to work on with HF.

I'd fancy him to reverse the form when they meet next. Mind you i backed Solwihit and was really impressed.

cson

Solwhit is improving all the time and I'd rather be on his side at this stage rather than Hurricane Fly. Having said that.... Hurricane Fly is relatively unexposed and could quite easily come on an enormous amount for that run.

podsieboy

a few of us were told by a connection to solwhit to back him before the aintree hurdle as he wud trot up on that occasion im gutted i didnt get a price that time for him but since the aintree hurdle im a pure fan of solwhit although fly wil be back and i hope the next clash will be epic with maybe binocular thrown in i think the real dark horse in the champion hurdle though is celestial halo

mdwexford

Id much rather have Binocular and Celestial Halo at this stage than Solwhit and Hurricane Fly.

It looks quite likely Master Minded will never repeat the brilliance of his 2008 Champion Chase win but he should still be capable of beating the current crop for 3 in a row if Nicholls can get him back to the form of his first 3 runs last season.

Interesting RPR think he only ran 1lb below his 2009 Champion Chase run on Sunday.

Colonel Sanders

Still on hols so haven't seen much racing, relying on texts and the odd look at the racingpost website

A few friends were in Cheltenham and they said Master Minded looked fitter than Well Chief. Well Chief also drifted from 2/1 out to 11/4

It would be a pity if Master Minded is 'gone' but keeping his Punchestown run in mind I'd have to be wary of him in the Tingle Creek even back on a right handed track. Shaping up to be a cracker this year, is it true Murphy plans to run Big Zeb as well?

As for Solwhit he was my Champion Hurdle pick on the Festival thread I started and I still think he has an outstanding chance (alas I didn;t back him tho :rolleyes:). Stays 2m 4 so I don't think the hill will be a problem but won the 2m champion at Punchestown so speed isn't an issue either. Hopefully runs in the Bula, huge bonus up for grabs for winning that and the champion and this race could also involve both Celestial Halo and Binocular

If Binocular gets beat again in the Bula there'll be no more excuses round Cheltenham. FWIW I recently looked at the Champion Hurdle from last year again and he was finding all the way to the line so I don't think he had any excuse. Having said that he was only a 5yo so an extra year on his back may be a huge advantage. Hopefully we'll find out in the Bula

Colonel Sanders

Edit that Racingpost reports Binocular will run in the fighting fifth (and The Xmas hurdle if he wins I assume) and Punjabi runs in the Bula

Pity, will keep the Binocular guessing game going til March!

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Pity, will keep the Binocular guessing game going til March!

Binocular stays every yard of the CH trip, he was closing down Celestial Halo and Punjabi all the way to the line (he was in front 10 yards after the line) I think possibly McCoy was worried he wouldnt see it out and thus didnt ride him the best. Run last years CH again and Binocular wins imo, AP rode him to get the trip rather than being certain he gets it. A year stronger and im sure he will be the one to beat.

corny

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular stays every yard of the CH trip, he was closing down Celestial Halo and Punjabi all the way to the line (he was in front 10 yards after the line) I think possibly McCoy was worried he wouldnt see it out and thus didnt ride him the best. Run last years CH again and Binocular wins imo, AP rode him to get the trip rather than being certain he gets it. A year stronger and im sure he will be the one to beat.

+1

mdwexford

I disagree he could have won last years race, he had plenty of time from the back of the last to get there and he couldnt do it. AP gave him every chance in my view.

However i think another summer and a year more of strengthening up will hopefully have improved him a ton like it did for Punjabi last year.

Rio 2016

The horse that will win the Champion Hurdle in May will be the horse that is primed solely fo that day. At the moment there are five notable contenders: Binocular, Celestial Halo, Punjabi, Solwit and Hurricane Fly. Of these five Solwit is the only one that has run that has looked noteabely forward in hs preparation and for me this is a bad sign as his progreesion between now and March will not be able to proceed in a linear fashion. I would be more inclined to lean towards Hurricane Fly and even if he gets beat every time between now and Cheltenham I would not be too disheartened. Connections have a clear choice, either they can win everything before March or they can win on the day that matters.

Morgans

Interesting theory but it should be noted that Punjabi won his debut last year (around this time) and was ready for the Christmas Hurdle. Katchit also was kept busy and not hidden until the festival.

I cant see how Hurricane Fly's loss could be viewed as a positive. We will know
more of course next time out, but if he doesnt pick up when asked again, questions will need to be asked. He is still a silly ante post price.

Solwhit, a horse that has proven to stays a lot further than 2m, was confidently ridden to beat Hurricane Fly for toe. While he was landing a gamble in the November Handicaps last year, the trainer was good enough to have him right at Aintree, last years aim. I definitely think that assuming that Byrnes doesnt understand when the horse needs to peak is dangerous.

Also, anyone thinking about the champion hurdle has to put Zaynar in the mix.

Rio 2016

Punjabi was far from his best in the Fighting Fifth last year and would surely have been beaten at Kempton.

Zaynar I imagine will be targeted at the World Hurdle or the Aintree Hurdle

On the same note, what a team of hurdlers Nicky Henderson has: Binocular, Punjabi, Zaynar and Punchestowns.

Morgans

It would be a surprise for Zaynar to go to the World Hurdle according to the trainer.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/karabak-ascot-triumph-star-zaynar-shows-champion-class/655649/reports/

Best priced 8/1 for the champion, Punjabi 14/1. He is definitely a player. Looked all class yesterday.

It is wrong to assume that the trainers with top class prospects are prepared to leave Cheltenham behind them before christmas. Some trainers do target the early season races with good prospects. Probably the most notable trainer is Nigel Twiston Davies, Noel Meade possibly in ireland. Imperial Commander was good enough to win the Ryanair after being cherry ripe for the Paddy Power last year. Horses dont win just races this time of the year because they are fitter, its also because they are more talented.

I wouldnt rip up any Hurricane Fly ante post dockets yet but I think there are far more questions about him now after the Morgiana. I'd back Solwhit to beat him every time.

RichieLawlor

Zaynar will defo need a really strong run Champion Hurdle, which he will most likely get. This makes him a serious player imo.

Looked awesome yesterday but saying that he probably beat nothing. Karabak needs further for sure, Katchit has had enough, too small for fences and Red Maloney is some dodger wouldn't battle past Anything, send him back to the flat.

Taking nothing away from Zaynar but we will prob learn a lot more when he takes on something of substance. Not sure where they can go with him though to avoid Binocular and Punjabi

Colonel Sanders

Denman won a gold cup having been on the go from the hennessy, Kauto won 2 after being on the go from November, Rooster Booster won the greatwood etc etc

I don't think being fit at this time of year is a huge handicap as long as a trainer doesn't go to the well too many times. Solwhit had won a competitive flat handicap this time last year and placed 2nd in another yet was still able to win at Aintree over 2m 4 & Punchestown over 2m

Rio 2016

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Denman won a gold cup having been on the go from the hennessy, Kauto won 2 after being on the go from November, Rooster Booster won the greatwood etc etc

I don't think being fit at this time of year is a huge handicap as long as a trainer doesn't go to the well too many times. Solwhit had won a competitive flat handicap this time last year and placed 2nd in another yet was still able to win at Aintree over 2m 4 & Punchestown over 2m

Leave the Gold Cup aside because there is a bigger gap between 3 mile chasers and their rivals than there is between 2 mile hurdlers.

As for Rooster Booster he won, reletively speaking, an uncompeditive Champion Hurdle. In a compeditive race like the one we will have in March you need to be peaked for the big day. Hardy Eustace won two Champion Hurdles, the second time he beat both Brave Inca and Macs Joy, despite being beaten by both of them all season long, in addition to Harchibald. Sublimity never faced any of his major rivals before the big day, while Katchit lost the Fighting Fifth, as well as being beaten by Osana in the Bula, before turning the tables in March.

Morgans

Why do you think that horses winning in the autumn have peaked? All horses towards the head of the market in the championship races are being targetted to peak in March.

Sure, if you dont include the examples contrary to your theory, you will always be right. Punjabi, Rooster Booster, 3m chasers. (Kauto Star won the Old Roan CHase Betfair Chase, Tingle Creek, King George before winning his first Gold Cup)

The biggest difference between Cheltenham in March and November/December is ground and course.

In context of Hurricane Fly, he was clearly the best novice in mid winter and went to Punchestown fresh. He has plenty to prove, even more so after the Morgiana.

Rio 2016

Morgans wrote: »

Why do you think that horses winning in the autumn have peaked? All horses towards the head of the market in the championship races are being targetted to peak in March.

Sure, if you dont include the examples contrary to your theory, you will always be right. Punjabi, Rooster Booster, 3m chasers. (Kauto Star won the Old Roan CHase Betfair Chase, Tingle Creek, King George before winning his first Gold Cup)

The biggest difference between Cheltenham in March and November/December is ground and course.

In context of Hurricane Fly, he was clearly the best novice in mid winter and went to Punchestown fresh. He has plenty to prove, even more so after the Morgiana.

You obviously didn't read all of what I said.

How far did Punjabi beat Sublimity in the Fighting Fifth and then in the Champion Hurdle?

Kauto Star was 10 pounds better than any other 3 mile chaser in the 06/07 season andthe ran below par in both the AON and the Gold Cup.

My theory only operates in a championship race where there is only two or three pounds seperating four or five horses.

Morgans

I have read what you have said in all your posts, but in fairness, you keep adding qualifications to defend your original position. Now, the only divisions where the theory should be used is where there are a group of horses within a few pounds of each other. Ok. Fair enough. When things are that tight it is whoever is on better form on the day in any case, cheltenham in march or leoparstwon at christmas. One mistake is crucial when things are that tight.

By your reckoning, it doesnt matter what happens in any race up to the festival. Its all down to those who are ready on the day. There is a grain of truth in this, but as I said it oftentimes more down to the ground and course than Autumn preparation. Also some horses are spring horses plain and simple.

You seem to suggest that is nothing to worry Hurricane Fly fans when he was beaten well in the Morgiana, on the basis that you assume that Solwhit was more ready for the race than Hurricane Fly. I am asking why?

Its easy to see that horses can improve for their first run, and some more than others. Not being best fresh was something that Hurricane Fly didnt show last year. It will be an interesting match the next time they meet. (Either the AIG or Cheltenham) But I find it hard to accept that Solwhit is not the superior horse at this stage. OR 165 vs 157 for Hurricane Fly is the handicappers interpretation. At 8lbs difference does that qualify for your theory? Hurricane Fly has to come on A LOT to be in contention. He may do, he is the right hands and looked very good last year once.

I dont see why Solwhit cant increase his winning margin over Hurricane Fly in the champion hurdle, just as Punjabi did over sublimity. He showed a very impressive turn of foot for a horse with proven stamina. Had I backed Hurricane Fly ante post I would be worried if he didnt win a race until the festival. Not sure he truly stays a properly run 2m at this stage, and it appeared from the Morgiana that Russell could have sat on HF rear for another furlong and simply waited to press the button when he needed.

I think Celestial Halo, Zaynar, Binocular and Punjabi are all bigger threats at this stage.

Warper

Fighting Fifth is shaping to be a great race with Binocular and Solwhit engaged- odds here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/wbx-fighting-fifth-hurdle

Should be a fascinating race and will tell us a lot of how good Solwhit really is. He travelled like Harchibald in the Morgiana but unlike hero he quickened impressively. Wonder will he challenge for favouritism on Sat. Will back him on the day if all sounds well.

Nulty

Warper wrote: »

Fighting Fifth is shaping to be a great race with Binocular and Solwhit engaged- odds here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/wbx-fighting-fifth-hurdle

Should be a fascinating race and will tell us a lot of how good Solwhit really is. He travelled like Harchibald in the Morgiana but unlike hero he quickened impressively. Wonder will he challenge for favouritism on Sat. Will back him on the day if all sounds well.

I don't see how you can question his ability - hes won 3 grade 1's in a row. anyhow, Binocular is first time up so the result wont be that solid if he gets beat. I cant understand how binocular is favorite to be honest. I dont think it matters which is the best horse, Solwhit is flying and has a run.

6/4 is a very reasonable price if you ask me

meriwether

Nulty wrote: »

I don't see how you can question his ability - hes won 3 grade 1's in a row. anyhow, Binocular is first time up so the result wont be that solid if he gets beat. I cant understand how binocular is favorite to be honest. I dont think it matters which is the best horse, Solwhit is flying and has a run.

6/4 is a very reasonable price if you ask me

I'll be stunned if Binocular doesn't win Saturday.

The boys are going for the million bonus with this, the Christmas hurdle and Cheltenham.

I'll admit I got my pants badly pulled down last year with him in Cheltenham (I had to sell my pants to pay the bookie) but he is still the best horse from that race last year. The interrupted prep was a serious dampner on his chances. Henderson has also said if he had 10 more days, they'd have won it minimum fuss.
Henderson and McCoy know he's better than Punjabi. They know.

Anyone who says he doesn't get the hill either should be placed in a large canvas sack. He was ahead 2 strides after the line.

He's going to muller them on Saturday, muller them in the Xmas hurdle, and then fight it out with Hurricane fly.

Mate of mine has a nag with Mullins, Mullins tiold him 11/2 is a phenomenal price for Cheltenham at the moment.

As much as I like Binocular, if Mullisn told me my mammy had a got shat in winning ther national, Id be inclined to believe him.

Whyno

Charles Byrnes stated after the Morgiana that if they didnt beat Hurricane Fly today they never would. What does that tell us??
I pick up that they had there horse fairly well forward and were expecting to win. HF imo travelled like the best horse but didnt quicken after the last which may result in him needing the race. Mullins wasnt to upset over the result.
Also we have to factor in that HF has had some training problems and this was his first time against the big boys.
Solwhit is a fantastic animal but we'll see how good he is this weekend when he takes on Binocular. Binocular deserves to be favourite as he has done nothing wrong in his career, proven to be a superstar on a flat track, an unlucky 3rd in last years champion and imo the top 2m hurdler at this time.
He`ll be wound up by henderson as there is no one better to have a horse ready for the big day. Sure it`ll be his first run of the season but there is a big bonus on offer and for one sure thing JP wo't want that to be left behind if he has a chance of winning it.
Zaynar was very impressive saturday but as richie has stated he beat pretty much an ordinary field. Karabak will be much better over further and Alan Kings horses are running like 3 legged donkeys at this stage in the season.
Celestial Halo suprised all involved with him on his first run this season and was also very impressive when not expected. Hes a live contender but again when he comes up against the crack 2 milers we'll see how good he is. Finished 2nd in the champion last year so doesnt have to improve to much to be right there again.
Sublimity is past his best and i dont think he'll be a factor come march.
Punjabi is the champion but from my reading and understating of it hes no.2 in the pecking order at hendersons behind Binocular.
The most exciting thing is that if come march we get all of these lining up with possibly Voeur de Vedette, Go Native, Walk on, Go Native etc we could possibly get one of the greatest champion hurdles of modern times to be ran.
I`ll sit on the ditch for the time being with Hurricane Fly but come march with Ruby up providing he has proven his melt in the trial races beforehand he could be value at 11/2.

Nulty

meriwether wrote: »

I'll be stunned if Binocular doesn't win Saturday.

The boys are going for the million bonus with this, the Christmas hurdle and Cheltenham.

I'll admit I got my pants badly pulled down last year with him in Cheltenham (I had to sell my pants to pay the bookie) but he is still the best horse from that race last year. The interrupted prep was a serious dampner on his chances. Henderson has also said if he had 10 more days, they'd have won it minimum fuss.
Henderson and McCoy know he's better than Punjabi. They know.

Anyone who says he doesn't get the hill either should be placed in a large canvas sack. He was ahead 2 strides after the line.

He's going to muller them on Saturday, muller them in the Xmas hurdle, and then fight it out with Hurricane fly.

Mate of mine has a nag with Mullins, Mullins tiold him 11/2 is a phenomenal price for Cheltenham at the moment.

As much as I like Binocular, if Mullisn told me my mammy had a got shat in winning ther national, Id be inclined to believe him.

You quoted my post but your reply had barely anything to do with what I said. I'm talking about this Saturday.

Conditions should - I dont know yet - be very testing. Solwhit has won 3 of his last 4 in heavy ground whereas Binocular has only seen soft, at worst, once. It's Binoculars seasonal debut, and Solwhit showed he's potentially as good as Binocular with his travelling, turn of foot, handling of conditions, and determination in the finish.

Theres officially 4lbs between them and the conditions should favour Solwhit coupled with his fto promise.

Binocular shouldn't be favorite.

podsieboy

well look at it this way if binocoluar wasnt fav and j.p is a man who knows the odds then hed be hittin the bookies for six so they cant take the chance so they have to make the horse fav

mdwexford

I think Binocular will win on the bridle on Saturday if the ground isnt completely bottomless, maybe even then as well.

Just think his tactical speed will be far too much for anyone in the trials all season.

Morgans

I think all told Binocular should be fav for the champion hurdle at the moment. I dont think McCoy was at his best in the champ last year and has least to prove. However, I dont think he is that far ahead of Solwhit at the moment and its a far tougher fighting fifth that Henderson may have been expecting. Solwhit has a tough run under his belt and has a sound chance of catching him. I think its clear that Byrnes and owners are looking at the bonus and they have a horse that will travel through the race. (I definitely dont think Hurricane Fly travelled any better than him at Punchestown and it would have taken a top class turn of foot to beat him from the last)

Every year I try to maintain an interest in the flat but every November its clear why National Hunt is so more interesting.

podsieboy

well the evens has been taken on binocular now odds on

Rio 2016

Morgans wrote: »

I have read what you have said in all your posts, but in fairness, you keep adding qualifications to defend your original position. Now, the only divisions where the theory should be used is where there are a group of horses within a few pounds of each other. Ok. Fair enough. When things are that tight it is whoever is on better form on the day in any case, cheltenham in march or leoparstwon at christmas. One mistake is crucial when things are that tight.

By your reckoning, it doesnt matter what happens in any race up to the festival. Its all down to those who are ready on the day. There is a grain of truth in this, but as I said it oftentimes more down to the ground and course than Autumn preparation. Also some horses are spring horses plain and simple.

You seem to suggest that is nothing to worry Hurricane Fly fans when he was beaten well in the Morgiana, on the basis that you assume that Solwhit was more ready for the race than Hurricane Fly. I am asking why?

Its easy to see that horses can improve for their first run, and some more than others. Not being best fresh was something that Hurricane Fly didnt show last year. It will be an interesting match the next time they meet. (Either the AIG or Cheltenham) But I find it hard to accept that Solwhit is not the superior horse at this stage. OR 165 vs 157 for Hurricane Fly is the handicappers interpretation. At 8lbs difference does that qualify for your theory? Hurricane Fly has to come on A LOT to be in contention. He may do, he is the right hands and looked very good last year once.

I dont see why Solwhit cant increase his winning margin over Hurricane Fly in the champion hurdle, just as Punjabi did over sublimity. He showed a very impressive turn of foot for a horse with proven stamina. Had I backed Hurricane Fly ante post I would be worried if he didnt win a race until the festival. Not sure he truly stays a properly run 2m at this stage, and it appeared from the Morgiana that Russell could have sat on HF rear for another furlong and simply waited to press the button when he needed.

I think Celestial Halo, Zaynar, Binocular and Punjabi are all bigger threats at this stage.

Leaving my theory aside for a minute can I ask you who was the most impressive novice: Binocular, Solwhit, Punjabi, Celestial Halo, Zaynar or Hurricane Fly?

Morgans

I hope your theory has been left aside for only a minute. Your question isnt straightforward to answer.

I'm guessing you want me to say Hurricane Fly. Its quite possible that his win over Go Native at Christmas was the most impressive 2m novice hurdle last year. It looked very good. The turn of foot he showed from the last was something you dont see too often in National Hunt. (not completely unlike Solwhit two weeks ago)

However, I dont think its nearly as straightforward as that. I do think he was flattered by the win, as Go Native travelled to the last just as well as him, and was allowed to coast home after his sloppy jump at the last cost him all chance. He would never have beaten HF that day, but would have got maybe within 5l of him, giving 3lbs. It definitely was a hugely eyecatching performance of what was a slow pace. I presume you think he was the most promising novice on the back of this. I wasnt blown away by his Punchestown performance, did what he had to do, and showed the Mullins had him back. It didnt have Champion Hurdle winner written all over it for me.

What he didn't do however was prove he could travel to England and take in CHeltenham with the emphasis on stamina and strong pace. There are countless horses that looked world beaters in the less competitive Irish races. Cousin Vinny looked a long way ahead of Go Native before Cheltenham. On Hurricane Fly's form with Go Native, he has it in the book to have won at Cheltenham last year, it doesn't always work out that way. 3/1 before the season started was a ridiculous price.

Solwhit didn't race in the British Isles as a novice and was aimed at for a proper touch on the flat before going back over hurdles. His only defeat since he went jumping here was a messy defeat to Ninetieth Minute which in hindsight was no disgrace. He is pretty much a second season novice hurdler this year. And has been as impressive. He should not be frightened of Hurricane Fly.

The others, Binocular, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Zaynar were all juveniles in their novice season and are best judged in a division by themselves. Its pretty much the norm for 4yos. Binocular cheltenham second in the Supreme Novices (beating the likes of Snap Tie and Kalahari King having travelled like the best horse throughtout) and his win at Aintree was every bit as impressive as Hurricane Fly.

What Binocular, Punjabi, and Celestial Halo have done is proven that they are within a length of Champion Hurdle winning class, over course and distance and importantly on a strong pace. They set a strong target that Solwhit and Hurricane Fly have yet to meet.

meriwether

Nulty wrote: »

You quoted my post but your reply had barely anything to do with what I said. I'm talking about this Saturday.

Conditions should - I dont know yet - be very testing. Solwhit has won 3 of his last 4 in heavy ground whereas Binocular has only seen soft, at worst, once. It's Binoculars seasonal debut, and Solwhit showed he's potentially as good as Binocular with his travelling, turn of foot, handling of conditions, and determination in the finish.

Theres officially 4lbs between them and the conditions should favour Solwhit coupled with his fto promise.

Binocular shouldn't be favorite.

So?

I addressed one point you made. Then I talked about something else I wanted to talk about, all on topic regarding the thread title.

Rio 2016

Hurricane Fly - 11/2 - will be primed for the big day - looks good now- anyone care to disagree

mdwexford

Rio 2016 wrote: »

Hurricane Fly - 11/2 - will be primed for the big day - looks good now- anyone care to disagree

How did anything that happened today have any bearing on his Champion Hurdle chances?