Pacquiao v Cotto

menoscemo

Some serious value about on this fight.
Boyles are offering 5/2 on a Cotto win in what I essentially see as a 50/50 fight.

For thjose who fancy pacman, Pacquiao despite being 1/3 to win is 7/2 to win on points :eek: Cotto is a full blown welterweight in his prime- they are putting way too much stock in Pacmans KO of hatton (an over the hil light welter). Cotto has great durability and I would expect him to last the distance.

Cotto at 15/2 to win on points is also crazy odds IMO

Jeez my only decision is which to lump on...

oconnon9

pacman will destroy him

by far the best p4p fighter in the world

full stop.

menoscemo

oconnon9 wrote: »

pacman will destroy him

by far the best p4p fighter in the world

full stop.

Grand and all that's your opinion. Personally, I think it will be a close fight but this is a betting thread so do you not think Pacquiao on points at 7/2 is a great bet then?

Vanbis

menoscemo wrote: »

Some serious value about on this fight.
Boyles are offering 5/2 on a Cotto win in what I essentially see as a 50/50 fight.

For thjose who fancy pacman, Pacquiao despite being 1/3 to win is 7/2 to win on points :eek: Cotto is a full blown welterweight in his prime- they are putting way too much stock in Pacmans KO of hatton (an over the hil light welter). Cotto has great durability and I would expect him to last the distance.

Cotto at 15/2 to win on points is also crazy odds IMO

Jeez my only decision is which to lump on...

Totally agree some crazy odds offered for the fight and i think it has the all the makings to be a great fight. I expect these to knock lumps out of each just not sure if it will go the distance. I think you if i do decide to throw money on the fight then it will be on Cotto to win on points. I think its such a good fight with two of the best its very hard to call.

Reginald P. DuM

While he won't make it look as incredibly easy as he did again Hatton, Pacquiao will defeat Cotto with plenty to spare I believe.

Pacman by KO

R6 - 12/1
R7 - 12/1

R8 - 14/1

R7 - R9 is 7/2.

Fill your boots!!

oconnon9

menoscemo wrote: »

Grand and all that's your opinion. Personally, I think it will be a close fight but this is a betting thread so do you not think Pacquiao on points at 7/2 is a great bet then?

Yeah 7/2 is a great price, but if your backing it because of the price then your prob gonna lose. If you think its gonna come out, without even looking at the odds, then back it. Don't let great odds short-sight your judgement.

Personally I think the fight won't go the distance because their two extremely attacking fighters, as most boxers are at this weight. Think about it, whens the last big fight at welterweight that you saw going the distance?

Anyways, my advice is back what u think is the winning bet, not the one with the most attractive odds.

Good luck with whatever u go for!

oconnon9

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

While he won't make it look as incredibly easy as he did again Hatton, Pacquiao will defeat Cotto with plenty to spare I believe.

Pacman by KO

R6 - 12/1
R7 - 12/1

R8 - 14/1

R7 - R9 is 7/2.

Fill your boots!!

looks good!

mikethemouth

i,m all over cotto for this fight

i have cotto at 7/2 to win the fight from 2 weeks ago .

this is a complete 50/50 fight and i think cotto will take it on points myself

Warper

I took the 7-2 on Pacquiao a few days ago to win on points. Cotto is a seriously tough Puerto Rican. I watched his last fight with Clottey and it was very close. Cotto was hampered by the nasty cut he got due a clash of heads but it showed how tough he is. I wouldnt read too much into Pacquiao's demolition of Hatton as Hatton was never going to win that fight.

I wouldnt be surprised if Cotto won this but Pacman can be electric. Either way it should be the fight of the year.

mikethemouth

agreed fella . think it ll be a great fight

masseyferguson

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

While he won't make it look as incredibly easy as he did again Hatton, Pacquiao will defeat Cotto with plenty to spare I believe.

Pacman by KO

R6 - 12/1
R7 - 12/1

R8 - 14/1

R7 - R9 is 7/2.

Fill your boots!!

cottos a good fighter but way too slow for pacquaio,roach reckons 8 rds so thats good enough for me,he predicted 8 rds for the delahoya fight and said hed be dissapointed if the hatton fight went past 3 rds

Davey Devil

oconnon9 wrote: »

Anyways, my advice is back what u think is the winning bet, not the one with the most attractive odds.

Awful advice. Your number one aim when gambling is to look for mistakes made by the bookmakers. If Pacman is 7/2 to win on points and you feel it should only be a 5/2 shot, then that's a good bet to make.

oconnon9

Davey Devil wrote: »

Awful advice. Your number one aim when gambling is to look for mistakes made by the bookmakers. If Pacman is 7/2 to win on points and you feel it should only be a 5/2 shot, then that's a good bet to make.

now theres some awful advice. if it doesn't come out you lose your money, regardless of the odds. why do you think the bookies offer such attractive odds, to lure people in. Listen mate, if your backing things because their attractive odds your gonna lose 95% of the time.

In that case, aren't liverpool a great price to win the prem, their 25/1? No because its not gonna happen!

Think you need 2 rethink d way u do ur betting!

Davey Devil

oconnon9 wrote: »

now theres some awful advice. if it doesn't come out you lose your money, regardless of the odds. why do you think the bookies offer such attractive odds, to lure people in. Listen mate, if your backing things because their attractive odds your gonna lose 95% of the time.

In that case, aren't liverpool a great price to win the prem, their 25/1? No because its not gonna happen!

Think you need 2 rethink d way u do ur betting!

[insert facepalm]

Read these articles, you might learning something about value betting:

http://www.betfinder.co.uk/articles/article4.asp

http://www.punters-paradise.com/betting-theory/concept-value.php

http://www.bettingadvice.com/showInfo.php?id=21

oconnon9

value is important in betting.

But the main part (the aim) is winning!

And ive yet to see a winner who was bad value, if ya get what I mean..

I'm not saying back the favourite, I'm saying back what u think will happen, be it 1/5 or 50/1 - a winner is a winner

a 7/1 that should be a 5/1 is no good if it doesn't win..

Anyways I think weve exhausted this debate, good luck with whatever your going for!

Davey Devil

I'm not backing anything in the fight. Can't see anything that stands out.

You obviously didn't read the articles or maybe you just don't understand.

Either way, good luck also with your gamblings.

candlegrease

oconnon9 wrote: »

value is important in betting.

Yes.

oconnon9 wrote: »

But the main part (the aim) is winning!

Really? I thought we were all trying to lose our money.

oconnon9 wrote: »

And ive yet to see a winner who was bad value, if ya get what I mean..

...so you pick the winner every time?

oconnon9 wrote: »

I'm not saying back the favourite, I'm saying back what u think will happen, be it 1/5 or 50/1 - a winner is a winner

If you think a 1/2 chance will win, and in reality it is a 5/6 chance, on average you will lose in the long term.

oconnon9 wrote: »

a 7/1 that should be a 5/1 is no good if it doesn't win..

It is if you bet on it 6 times and it wins once (on average this will be the case). 6 €5 stakes sets you back €30. The return from the win is €40. Net profit of €10.

To summarise, not understanding probability/value = FAIL

menoscemo

Was going to pull up oconnon on his earlier statement but decided there is no point arguing about value with a man making statements like that.

Anyway amazingly the odds of points victories has drifted since I last posted. Pacman to win on points now 4-1 with boyles :eek: and cotto pts is 8-1. I slapped €40 on both outcomes with the backup bonus that Boyles are refunding bets in this market if Cotto KO's pacman in an even numbered round.

Really think this fight is offering loads of value.

Vanbis

menoscemo wrote: »

Really think this fight is offering loads of value.

I've wacked some money on Cotto to win and decision on points. I also threw a few on him to win either rounds 4 to 9. Its going to be a great fight. If i manage to stay awake i'll be keeping and eye on the live betting once it starts.

Kod-box

maybe a stupid question here but i dont often bet on the boxing, when they say points or decision what do they mean by that?

Fizman

Kod-box wrote: »

maybe a stupid question here but i dont often bet on the boxing, when they say points or decision what do they mean by that?

That the fight goes the full distance, but the judges scorecards deem that Cotta deserves it over the course of 12 rounds.

menoscemo

It's points or technical decision actually. If a fight is stopped after the first 4 rounds due to a cut caused by an acidental headbut it goes to a technical decision.

Kod-box

ah right, cheers, will do pacman on pts so i think.

oconnon9

lads lads lads.. not listening to a word i said..

pacman by KO = easy money

cya later

:D:D

PIMPHO

oconnon9 wrote: »

lads lads lads.. not listening to a word i said..

pacman by KO = easy money

cya later

:D:D

He won by TKO

oconnon9

yep the bookies offer odds on KO/TKO, or points