Just Smudge - 2.10 Bangor-On-Dee (Wednesday)

Fineform · 10-11-2009 6:45pm #1

Venetia Williams has had a slow start to the season and when Green Belt Flyer won at Chepstow last week it was the first time for more than 3 months she had been in the winners enclosure. With the ground now softening I expect her yard to start moving swiftly into top gear now.

A previous maiden hurdler who had suffered with tendon problems, Just Smudge demonstrated the positive effect a change of stable can have on a horse at the start of the year when joining Venetia Williams and winning twice over fences at Doncaster and Ludlow in 8 days off marks of 98 and 105. Following these comfortable victories, Just Smudge performed disappointingly in his 3 subsequent races. I put his next 2 sub-standard displays down to him losing his confidence. Turned out in a decent contest at Haydock, Just Smudge landed awkwardly at the first fence and jumped the remainder slowly, making no real impression. Haydock’s fences are notoriously stiff and the after-effects of this unpleasant experience were evident with another poor round of jumping on his next outing at Uttoxeter. Just Smudge was last seen at the course he races at tomorrow - Bangor. He put in an improved display of jumping that day until fading under pressure. I think that the drop in trip on better ground counted against him on this occasion.

Just Smudge has also had a wind operation since last season and work will undoubtedly have been put in to improving his jumping in readiness for this return. It is also worth noting that Venetia Williams has a decent record with chasers here (33% strike rate) and Bangor's turning track is sure to suit his prominent style of racing. Most importantly, Just Smudge is a horse that runs well fresh. He resumes tomorrow off 117. With further progress likely, ground conditions ideal and back at what I feel is his best trip of 3 miles, he may well prove to be the best handicapped horse in this race.

Early evening offers of 11-2 and 6-1 from Bet365 and Paddy Power respectively are more or less in line with my prices as I have him marked up as worth chancing at 6-1 or better.

growler · 10-11-2009 8:15pm

think its the 2.10 hes in.

good write up , thanks

mike65 · 10-11-2009 9:14pm

7/1 on PP.

Timeform says: Went wrong way after landing back-to-back staying handicaps over fences on joining his yard in January. Chance break may have done him good, though, and dangerously handicapped if back to best.

ATR says JUST SMUDGE ran out an easy winner of novice chases at Ludlow and Doncaster last season so these fences will prove no problem to negotiate. Venetia Williams's chasers are in fine form and this proven stayer can make a winning reintroduction.