Major Storm Next Weekend

Storm 10

Met Office just gave a warning on TV now of a possible major storm hitting Ireland on Friday night Saturday, they say its a very intense storm coming up from the South and would generate very stormy conditions over Ireland, they showed the pressure in the storm at 965MB which if it happens will be a very big storm that could cause a lot of damage. Also going to get stormy on Wednesday of this week as well.

Keep safe out there especially all the folk that go to sea.

I posted this in a new thread because if its going to happen we should keep it seperate and post any news on the storm here.

Sleipnir

any links for this?

Sleipnir

Sorry, found this on www.metoffice.gov.uk

UK Outlook for Friday 13 Nov 2009 to Sunday 22 Nov 2009:

A mild and mostly strong to gale force south to southwesterly airstream is expected across the U.K. on Friday, with rain also spreading to most parts, this heaviest and most persistent in the northwest. Conditions look like continuing very unsettled throughout the weekend, too, with heavy rain or showers in most areas, accompanied at times by gales, severe gales, and perhaps even storm force winds in the northwest. Temperatures are expected to be generally near or a little above normal, especially in the south, and perhaps rather cold at times in the north, with snow possible over the Scottish mountains. There is considerable uncertainty through the remainder of the period, but it is most likely to remain quite unsettled, especially in northern and western areas.

Storm 10

Sleipnir wrote: »

any links for this?

Was on Met Eireanns forecast for the week ahead on RTE I, they usually repeat it on the 6 and 9 news tonight.

Sleipnir

Looks pretty nasty alright.

Storm 10

If a storm of with a low pressure centre of 965 hits Ireland we better head for the hills, would that be a record low it it happens????

Deep Easterly

Storm 10 wrote: »

If a storm of with a low pressure centre of 965 hits Ireland we better head for the hills, would that be a record low it it happens????

No.

Sleipnir

God, I don't know.
"The Halloween Nor'easter" in 1991 off the Coast of Newfoundland reached a low of 972 mbar.
I'm open to correction but I think it's a large differential between the high on the edge of the storm and low in the centre that causes high winds so it would depend.

Min

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=prec&type=temp

Icelandic forecasters put the storm with a centre low of 954mb.

Deep Easterly

Sleipnir wrote: »

God, I don't know.

I'm open to correction but I think it's a large differential between the high on the edge of the storm and low in the centre that causes high winds so it would depend.

Dead right Slepnir. November 2006 was a classic example of Atlantic deep lows:


Pressure fell below 970mb's over many parts of Ireland early on the 25th of that month, yet not much significant wind associated:



As you say, low pressure does not always equate to intense storminess. More to do with alignment with corresponding positions of High Pressure cells and how much of a "squeeze" is taking place.

I am not overly convinced at this stage that this storm will pan out as being shown currently on the models, if at all, but if the latest ECM projection verifies, then it could be a very rough weekend ahead for the Western side of Ireland:



I hope so!

KittyeeTrix

just happened upon this thread and don't know that much at all about weather systems so have a quick question for ye guys.

I'm flying out of Dublin next friday afternoon to Aberdeen airport. What are the chances that this storm will hinder those plans?

Thanks for any replies in advance.......

Duiske

fluffyorganic1 wrote: »

just happened upon this thread and don't know that much at all about weather systems so have a quick question for ye guys.

I'm flying out of Dublin next friday afternoon to Aberdeen airport. What are the chances that this storm will hinder those plans?

Thanks for any replies in advance.......

Far to early to say, but I would not think there would be problems with flights.
Actually, looking at wind speeds and direction, you will probably do the Dublin - Aberdeen route in record time

KittyeeTrix

Duiske wrote: »

Far to early to say, but I would not think there would be problems with flights.
Actually, looking at wind speeds and direction, you will probably do the Dublin - Aberdeen route in record time

Cheers Duiske, booked with ryanair and didn't bother with insurance as it is nearly cheaper to just forgoe the flight if anything happens. I have exams starting on the 7th of Dec so would have to postpone until after Xmas:(.
Which reminds me I should stop posting on boards and get back to the study.
I will keep checking in over the week to see if ye guys have any more updates .
Thanks again:)

Mothman

See March 2008 bulletin for details on 950mb reported at Shannon on the 10th. The whole country saw sub 960mb

M.T. Cranium

12z GFS and GEM global models have abandoned this storm, now we wait to see if 12z ECM follows suit or holds on to the storm.

I am heading out for the day here, so I won't find out until Monday, perhaps someone familiar with the models could post the results of the 12z ECM run some time after about 7:30 pm when it's available.

Not that this model development kills all chances for the storm, sometimes these things come and go over at least one cycle of model confusion before clarity sets in.

nacho libre

Paddy1, do you know what year was it we has the low of 939 hectopascals centred 400 miles off the northwest coast of ireland?

i believe the north west had force 12 winds out of it for a brief period

deisemum

Thanks for the heads up, think I'll stock up and have a big tidy-up in the garden to secure everything and batten down the hatches.

I slept through the big storm in October 1987 in the UK and didn't hear a thing, just woke up to devastation all round.

Iancar29

So much for gettin my hopes up!

Doesnt look like its gonna be anything special at all wit the latest runs.
:mad:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

Paddy1, do you know what year was it we has the low of 939 hectopascals centred 400 miles off the northwest coast of ireland?

i believe the north west had force 12 winds out of it for a brief period

I am not sure Nachos. But I reckon it has happened more than once. December 1986 had an unusually deep low in the Atlanitc on the 15th:



As did January 1993:



From what I have read, there was no exceptional weather associated with either event (there may well have been however )
I think the lowest recorded air pressure in Ireland (Belfast I think) went down to somewhere around 920mb's sometime in the late 19th Century. I recall that Met Eireann did a feature on this event, with graphical representations, in one of their older "Monthly Bulletins". You could contact them yourself to find out any interesting stats like this as they are usually very helpful with stuff like that.

Img Sources: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk / http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

Sleipnir

There was "The Big Wind" back in 1839 where pressure dropped to 918 hPa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

Deep Easterly

Sleipnir wrote: »

There was "The Big Wind" back in 1839 where pressure dropped to 918 hPa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

Yep, another storm I would have loved to have experienced. I have a book on this storm with some really great accounts contained within it. It would seem overall that there was some really powerful winds over the country on that night. The Loughrea/Athlone area was particularly badly hit and damage was atrocious in these areas. This may suggest that some sort of tornadic episodes may have occurred. Powerful lightning was also observed in the Midwest (Limerick esp). Much loss of life off the Galway/Mayo seaboard also

nacho libre

Sleipnir wrote: »

There was "The Big Wind" back in 1839 where pressure dropped to 918 hPa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

so it's safe to say any storm this weekend will be a bit of an anticlimax when you consider that one. still to be serious, as much as i love a good storm, i wouldn't want to see a storm giving gusts of that intensity again in Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

For very strong winds in Ireland, the centre of a low needs to pass generally within 100 miles of the Irish coast, this is why the deep lows shown above in 1986 and 1993 were not especially memorable for strong winds, they were too far offshore and they probably generated hurricane force winds well off the coast.

The storm that people were mentioning as having a very low pressure was on 8 December, 1886. Someone above needs to edit their post, where they say 1020 mbs they mean 920 mbs -- astonishing at it may sound, this storm had a central pressure in the 920s (we consider any low with a central pressure of 950 mbs to be intense and 940 mbs exceptional, in particular if they track across land in the British Isles, note how close to Iceland the 916 mb pressure was).

The archived weather map for that date should appear in this link (I am not at home and this internet connection is a bit dodgy):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsslpeur.html

If you at least get to a menu of map dates, select 8 Dec 1886, press zeigen, and you'll see a very wound up low near Belfast. (sorry this link won't take a specific date, you have to enter the date you want to see this). I seem to recall reading somewhere that there was enormous wind damage with this westerly storm force wind in counties between Dublin and Belfast.

I have a link to daily data for Malin Head going back to about 1974 and I recall seeing one day there with gusts to 160 km/hr, if I can find that again I will post the date and the link to a map if possible. That may have to wait until Thursday when I have more time to look.

mike65

Some people have strange idea of whats good for them. Storms kill and cause great distress and financial hardship when they are bad enough to damage property, so lets be thankful of the apparant filling of the low presure rather than being dissapointed.

pauldry

this storm prediction may change again before the end of the week. often the original prediction can come back to haunt us ....especially on Friday 13th.

Ill be keeping an eye on long range weather @ http://weathergossip.com

M.T. Cranium

Winds at Malin Head gusted to near 150 km/hr on the night of 31 Jan and 1 Feb of 1983, if you check the archived weather map for 1 Feb 1983 at 00z you'll see this low just passing to the north of Ireland on a due easterly track.

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

Some people have strange idea of whats good for them. Storms kill and cause great distress and financial hardship when they are bad enough to damage property, so lets be thankful of the apparant filling of the low presure rather than being dissapointed.

i think you'll find it's not just folks into extreme weather who have an interest in potentially dangerous situations. it's our(mankind's) nature to be captivated by danger. this is not to say i'll stand under a tree during a storm, but i will look at trees during high winds and be in awe of their power. i love storms and i'll make no apology for doing so.

Timistry

nacho libre wrote: »

i think you'll find it's not just folks into extreme weather who have an interest in potentially dangerous situations. it's our(mankind's) nature to be captivated by danger. this is not to say i'll stand under a tree during a storm, but i will look at trees during high winds and be in awe of their power. i love storms and i'll make no apology for doing so.

Well said! I love a good storm. Being 23 i can only remember the xmas eve storm of 1997 vividly and that one had no heavy rain associated with it! Obviously i wont put myself in harms way for no reason but i get so sick of this crap wet weather all year round, a bit of action is welcome. Hopefully we will get something as the models are not awe inspiring, even in FI

Redsunset

Remember this one in 05.





BBC

Community shock over storm deaths

The deaths have shocked a close community
A school teacher on South Uist has described how the tight-knit community is in shock following tragic deaths among a local family.
The bodies of five-year-old Hannah, Archie MacPherson, 36, his wife Murdina, 37, and her father Calum Campbell, 67 have been found.

Search teams are continuing to look for seven-year-old Andrew.

Headteacher Mary MacInnes said local people are very upset.

The men's bodies were found near a causeway between South Uist and Benbecula on Wednesday and Murdina's body was found later in the day.

Hannah's body was found on Thursday afternoon.

It's a real great tragedy. Everyone in this community knows each other and it's been a terrific blow for us

Donald MacdonaldNeighbour

The family is thought to have left the MacPhersons' home in South Uist in two cars on Tuesday evening to escape rising flood water.

Ms MacInnes told BBC Radio Scotland of the dismay felt throughout a tight-knit community.

She said: "There was a lot of interaction with these people and in a small community - the school has just under 70 pupils - everyone knows everyone else and Murdina being the secretary at the local school was everyone's first point of call.

"People are just dreading going out and searching for the bodies that are missing.

'Degree of realism'

Donald Macdonald, 51, from Benbecula, echoed the headteacher's sentiments.

He said: "It's a real great tragedy. Everyone in this community knows each other and it's been a terrific blow for us.

"Archie and Murdina were a tip-top couple, a lovely couple to have in the community and it's just so sad."

Another neighbour, Andrew MacKinnon, 52, said: "Everyone is just stunned that this could happen, they were all very, very nice people.

"It's a terrible loss to our community. This will haunt us all for many years to come."

Local MSP Alasdair Morrison told BBC Scotland's news website it was a tragedy for the community.

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

Some people have strange idea of whats good for them. Storms kill and cause great distress and financial hardship when they are bad enough to damage property

I think people who enjoy storms and all things weather are well aware of the hardship and tragedy they can bring, just as those who love cars know that cars can kill and so forth.

I love witnessing storms, and the more violent the better as far as I am concerned. Like Nacho, I will make no apology for that. I have been moved to tears more than once when I have seen lightning ripping open the sky. I lose all reason when I hear thunder. I will run to the Salthill or Furbo beach if there is a force 10 or 11 gale in full swing and enjoy every second of it. It is not the danger factor that thrills me but I just enjoy witnessing nature in all glory and it is a glory that I want to feel in my soul. No logic behind my thinking at all, but then there is no logic to Mother Nature.

We are a perfect match I suppose!

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The storm that people were mentioning as having a very low pressure was on 8 December, 1886. Someone above needs to edit their post, where they say 1020 mbs they mean 920 mbs

Thanks for spotting that stupid mistake MT. What was I thinking? Post edited.

Anyway. this is the chart you speak of:



The low was to cross over the North Channel later that day and deepen even further.

pauldry

woah! thats pretty impressive.

system admin
http://weathergossip.com

patneve

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think people who enjoy storms and all things weather are well aware of the hardship and tragedy they can bring, just as those who love cars know that cars can kill and so forth.

I love witnessing storms, and the more violent the better as far as I am concerned. Like Nacho, I will make no apology for that. I have been moved to tears more than once when I have seen lightning ripping open the sky. I lose all reason when I hear thunder. I will run to the Salthill or Furbo beach if there is a force 10 or 11 gale in full swing and enjoy every second of it. It is not the danger factor that thrills me but I just enjoy witnessing nature in all glory and it is a glory that I want to feel in my soul. No logic behind my thinking at all, but then there is no logic to Mother Nature.

We are a perfect match I suppose!

I must say that I agree 100% with what you say...I'd like to add that humankind is great with all that it has built and accomplished, but we are all powerless in front of the wrath of mother nature. I get pissed off when mankind starts to play with nature, like the following story (it's from a while back):

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-10/moscow-mayor-pays-russian-air-force-wage-war-winter

Iancar29

IS NOBODY ACTUALLY FOLLOWING THE "WEEKEND STORM" IN THIS THREAD OR WAT?

OR IS IT JUST BECAUSE EVERYONE HAS LOST HOPE! HA

....I AGREE WIT ALL THE ABOVE COMMENTS, NATURE IS AN AMAZING THING TO WITNESS IN ALL ITS GLORY.

TheGreenGiant

The weekend storm doesn't look like its gonna be a storm as such. Looks like mostly rain as 2 lows seem to circulate around each other for the weekend. Not good for the match in Croker. Hope its at least dry for the game!

Duiske

Even though its 3 days away,this storm looks like its going to bring some pretty atrocious conditions to the sea's off the south coast initially (roughly 12pm Fri -6am Sat) and then the strongest winds move up the Irish sea (6pm Fri - 11am Sat).

Have to agree with Deep Easterly above. Theres nothing more humbling than the raw power that nature can unleash. From a personal point of view, the timimg of this storm is disapointing. I was hoping to get down to Hook Head at the weekend to watch this storm in action and shoot some video, but sadly most of the action is going to occur during the night hours

Just look at the winds hammering into The Hook around midnight...

JanuarySnowstor

Well if the 18z is anywhere near the mark, Friday 13th will see a major storm hit Ireland.
If the French are coming over for the match by ferry they might make the last 5mins:D:D

Hooter23

METCHECK now have an advance weather warning fo the whole of ireland for friday & saturday i dont think they know yet how bad it might be until 2moro

Timistry

This will be difficult to predict until thursday i reckon due to the presence of 2 low centres. There relative positions will affect windspeeds wont they?

pauldry

this bad? http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


system admin
http://weathergossip.com

mad DIY

pauldry wrote: »

this bad? http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


system admin
http://weathergossip.com

That's bad. Looks like everything was blown clean off the page

Storm 10

Met Check warning it looks bad if it happens





Forecasters Warning Heavy Rain and Severe Gales

Affecting: Southwest England, Wales, west and northwest England, western Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

Valid: 13:00 Friday 13th November to 23:00 Saturday 14th November 2009

This is an Advanced Weather Warning issued by Metcheck at 20:40 on Tuesday 10th November.

A deepening area of low pressure is expected to track north/north-eastwards across western parts of Britain and Ireland during Friday and Saturday, bringing heavy rain and the risk of severe gales.

Greatest concern is currently focused on western Britain and Ireland where the heaviest of the rain and strongest winds are likely to occur.

Rainfall totals of up to 2 inches (50mm) may fall during Friday afternoon and night in places, whilst severe south-westerly gales gusting up to 80mph could affect the southwest during Friday night and Saturday, before affecting other western areas during Saturday.

These conditions will result in hazardous travelling conditions, and some localised flooding may occur in areas where the land is saturated after recent rainfall. In addition, some damage to buildings and trees may occur in the severe gales.

This Advanced Weather Warning will be updated tomorrow, Wednesday 11th November.

Issued by: Paul Barber for Metcheck
---END---

TheGreenGiant

Timistry wrote: »

This will be difficult to predict until thursday i reckon due to the presence of 2 low centres. There relative positions will affect windspeeds wont they?

make it 3 lows now! Yep the weekend looks like its gonna be very stormy indeed and that low centered over us will bring some amount of rain! Certainly 2 inches in places

Rougies

12z has the low center further south, downgrading the storm potential for Ireland. Southern/eastern areas still looking fairly blowy through Fri night though...

JanuarySnowstor

Severe flooding all over Cork this evening.
Where did that come from
Some road closures in Carrigaline and Midleton

Rougies

Not suprised Cork got flooding today...

Timistry

Some heavy rain in that band! Seemed to intensify as it progressed inland. So whats the story with Friday/Saturday. The models cannot make up there mind as to the position of the storm. GFS has the heaviest rain and winds off the S coast

Deep Easterly

This positioning and track of this weekend's low will should be coming into hi-res territory over the next 12hrs or so, and even then I doubt they will be exact until 12hrs before hand. It is going to be interesting to see what will happen in the end. I think all the major models have handled this developing low quite well over the last 8 days or so.

Psygnosis

Its been absolutely bucking in Rush for the last hour roads will defo be flooded should be fun in the morning

Timistry

metcheck think that it will track to the south, only affecting the South of england. All guesswork up to this point from the models. It looking like it will be a nowcast situation. Exciting to say the least;)

Redsunset

Not everyday you see a forecast fax like this.

all lows trapped by all high pressures surrounding them.

The more high pressure systems surrounding lows usually means greater wind potential because air moves from areas of relatively high pressure towards areas of relative low pressure to create equilibrium. The greater the pressure difference, the stronger the wind.these lows are not that intense so fairly moderate gales to strong in gusts.