Fall in Live Register numbers - CSO

jhegarty

Source : http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1104/liveregister.html


So , is this a bottom or a temporary reprieve ?

ebmma

There's only so many people. Unemployment can't rise at exactly the same rate forever.

murfie

jhegarty wrote: »

So , is this a bottom or a temporary reprieve ?

Temporary reprieve I would think, reason for the figures according to FAS below.

However, it puts this decline down to increased emigration and a lower number of young people in the labour force because many are choosing to extend their studies.

Job creation needs to be the highest issue on the government agenda, but i fear they are to focused on helping their banking and builder buddies that jobs are 3rd on the list if not 4th behind expenditure cuts

seamus

As above, there are only so many jobs that can be lost ultimately. Aside from the banking and construction sectors, the economy isn't that much in the crapper. People have simply reigned in spending and all businesses have needed to cope with that fact. This is why we've seen job cuts and pay cuts and closures of businesses.

The theory is that there is a certain amount of contraction that will take place as companies restructure themselves and shed the excess fat, and companies with poor/unsustainable models go out of business. We should be approaching the end of that now (companies don't put off cost saving measures), and certainly for the next 6 months* I would expect unemployment rates to remain flat, followed by a very slow drop, probably to 7 or 8 %, where it will stay.

*with the exception of a increase in unemployment in January.

Biggins

Between now and January 6th the numbers are prone especially, to jump a bit around.
Christmas, part-time work as well has a small part to play.

Better to judge how long term things are going around 3/4 month next year I feel.

RedPlanet

It's not the bottom nor a reprieve. They've just shifted the numbers around.
x number are now in FAS schemes therefore off the "live register".
x are now back in college
x number have emigrated

marco_polo

Clearly the most logical explaination is that it is a direct result of Klauss signing Lisbon.

dvpower

Biggins wrote: »

Between now and January 6th the numbers are prone especially, to jump a bit around.
Christmas, part-time work as well has a small part to play.

Better to judge how long term things are going around 3/4 month next year I feel.

Don't they already adjust the figures to take account of these factors?

GSF

Do we know if emigration is helping to keep the numbers down? Or it it to do with FAS course take up? I suspect its not being driven by the number of real jobs out there.

bonkers

this slight drop could be explained by the amount of irish people leaving the country.

maynooth_rules

bonkers wrote: »

this slight drop could be explained by the amount of irish people leaving the country.

This is the big point I imagine. Many people, particularly young males have got the **** out of this country. I too hope to be joining them soon.

jhegarty

dvpower wrote: »

Don't they already adjust the figures to take account of these factors?

Yes, these are the seasonally adjusted figures.

Biggins

jhegarty wrote: »

Yes, these are the seasonally adjusted figures.

True but what I'm weary of is the % degree of what way they sway one way or another and what criteria methods are they applying (that might also be open to advantageous application)?

RealityCheck

It still appears that the levels of employment are decreasing whatever about the unemployment levels.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/1104/1224258025002.html


The number of redundancies for the month of October is 6500, the highest rise since June. Jobs are still being lost, contrary to what some would have have you believe. The live register is not a measure of unemployment.

wrote:

Responding to the redundancy data, Patricia Callan, the director of the Small Firms Association, said the Live Register was giving the Government a “false sense of security” on jobs.
“The Government is taking heart from the flattening of the Live Register index in recent months, yet the redundancy figures clearly demonstrate that the jobs crisis is very real and is spiralling out of control,” Ms Callan said.
The Live Register has stabilised because of a “veritable brain drain” through emigration and because employees who were moved to shorter working weeks this time last year, entitling them to benefits, have now been made unemployed, she said.

jank

January and Feb 2010 will be very telling. Xmas this year will be tough on many and I would expect it to rise again. Come the summer then it will go up again as students leaving education.

Of course emigration will take people off the dole as well.

starbelgrade

jhegarty wrote: »

Source : http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1104/liveregister.html


So , is this a bottom or a temporary reprieve ?

The live register only reflects the number of people who are actually signing on, not the number of people who are unemployed. There are many unemployed people who are not eligible for social welfare, there are others who were signing on, but whose benefits have run out & as previously pointed out, there are many others back in education, have left the country, or returned to their homeland.

The live register is an accurate reflection of only 1 thing - the number of people signing on, nothing more, nothing less.

segaBOY

starbelgrade wrote: »

The live register only reflects the number of people who are actually signing on, not the number of people who are unemployed. There are many unemployed people who are not eligible for social welfare, there are others who were signing on, but whose benefits have run out & as previously pointed out, there are many others back in education, have left the country, or returned to their homeland.

The live register is an accurate reflection of only 1 thing - the number of people signing on, nothing more, nothing less.

Also includes people who are on reduced hours and entitled to some form of assistance.

Live register not equal to unemployment-something RTÉ has had a hard time grasping in the past.

deadhead13

GSF wrote: »

Do we know if emigration is helping to keep the numbers down? Or it it to do with FAS course take up? I suspect its not being driven by the number of real jobs out there.

The CSO published a report on emigration in September - number of emigrants from Ireland in the year to April increased by 40%, from 45,300 to 65,100. You would have to assume that there has been a further increase since last April.

Biggins

deadhead13 wrote: »

The CSO published a report on emigration in September - number of emigrants from Ireland in the year to April increased by 40%, from 45,300 to 65,100. You would have to assume that there has been a further increase since last April.

Check through here: http://www.ria.gov.ie/statistics/ and here: http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/WP07000065

deadhead13

Biggins wrote: »

Check through here: http://www.ria.gov.ie/statistics/ and here: http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/WP07000065

Eh...I was refering to the number of people leaving the country. Over the same period immigration into Ireland fell from 83,600 to 57,300. I think asylum seekers is a separate issue.

Biggins

deadhead13 wrote: »

Eh...I was refering to the number of people leaving the country. Over the same period immigration into Ireland fell from 83,600 to 57,300. I think asylum seekers is a separate issue.

O right, my bad.

gurramok

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/1105/1224258098947.html

The number of people on Fás training programmes “has practically doubled this year from 66,000 to 128,000”, and 25,000 people were on back-to-work and back-to-education schemes.

Are there jobs for those 153,000 people??

finbar10

jhegarty wrote: »

Source : http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1104/liveregister.html


So , is this a bottom or a temporary reprieve ?

I think there are several reasons for this drop (job creation not being one of them):

1) emigration
2) the 9 or 12 month jobseekers' benefit period running out for many people
who, perhaps because their spouses are working, won't qualify for
jobseekers' allowance
3) a certain massaging of figures (those put onto FÁS courses won't be counted but will still of course be getting benefits)
4) the start of many college courses in Sept/Oct for those going back to fulltime education

JONJO THE MISER

bonkers wrote: »

this slight drop could be explained by the amount of irish people leaving the country.

Yes im one of those people who has left the country and the live register last month and ive met many others who have only left in the past 2 months. Hey what can i say im doing my bit for the country and saving the taxpayer 204 euro per week plus:p.

starbelgrade

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yes im one of those people who has left the country and the live register last month and ive met many others who have only left in the past 2 months. Hey what can i say im doing my bit for the country and saving the taxpayer 204 euro per week plus:p.

How's that working out for you?

JONJO THE MISER

starbelgrade wrote: »

How's that working out for you?

Its great, im currently enjoying a few beers and today was a lovely day, for brekfast i had 2 steaks for $5 each and good quality they were too, aus its great, now where did i put that last beer:D