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Seasonal Forecasts

  • 30-09-2009 8:45am
    #1
    MetEireann
    Company Representative Posts: 55 Verified rep ✭


    Some people might find this to be of interest.

    What are Seasonal Forecasts?
    Ray McGrath, Head of Research and Applications, Met Éireann

    The day-to-day forecasts produced by Met Éireann are “deterministic” in the sense that they provide specific details regarding the weather with respect to location and time (e.g. “rain will reach Dublin around noon on Sunday...”). While great strides have been made in recent years in extending the range of forecasts, for fundamental reasons deterministic forecasts will never have any skill in predicting the weather weeks or months ahead. Seasonal forecasts take a different approach: they predict the climate, or more accurately the departures from the average climate, for the coming seasons. They are probabilistic in nature (e.g. “there is an 80% probability that the season will be drier than average...”) and always relative to a mean climate. If the coming seasons are “average”, the seasonal forecast may not be particularly useful. However, a forecast that can correctly identify the future occurrence of large departures or anomalies from the average has considerable potential. The key to success lies in the correct identification and modelling of the factors that push the climate away from the average.

    Read the rest of the article here.


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