December budget - predictions?

Theboinkmaster

So what do you think is most likley?

Will FF even still be in power?! They've already stated this week that taxes will not be increased, other than for a carbon tax. But with the unions already mobilising will the government have the stomach for PS pay cuts?

My predictions:

- Increased carbon tax on motor fuel and motor tax
- Reduction in child allowance 5-10%
- Reduction in social welfare 5%
- PS pay cuts, in line with salary (so 1% for under €20k, 2.5% for under €30k etc - maybe 10% for those over €70k)

IMO the government do not have the stomach to implement the PS pay cuts however since the ECB are funding us €400m per week I'd say they're calling the shots to a degree, which I think could be our country's salvation...

jimmmy

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

My predictions:

- Increased carbon tax on motor fuel and motor tax
- Reduction in child allowance 5-10%
- Reduction in social welfare 5%
- PS pay cuts, in line with salary (so 1% for under €20k, 2.5% for under €30k etc - maybe 10% for those over €70k)

IMO the government do not have the stomach to implement the PS pay cuts however since the ECB are funding us €400m per week I'd say they're calling the shots to a degree, which I think could be our country's salvation...

You are probably not far off the mark what will happen. Of course the pay cuts the government will propose in the budget will go nowhere near correcting the economic apartheid in the county. ( reducing public pay to levels seen across the border in N. Ireland, and in other European countries). Instead of borrowing 20 or 22 billion a year the govt will propose the token pay cuts above, ensuring govt borrowing still remains nearly as much.

Tipp Man

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

So what do you think is most likley?

Will FF even still be in power?! They've already stated this week that taxes will not be increased, other than for a carbon tax. But with the unions already mobilising will the government have the stomach for PS pay cuts?

My predictions:

- Increased carbon tax on motor fuel and motor tax
- Reduction in child allowance 5-10%
- Reduction in social welfare 5%
- PS pay cuts, in line with salary (so 1% for under €20k, 2.5% for under €30k etc - maybe 10% for those over €70k)

IMO the government do not have the stomach to implement the PS pay cuts however since the ECB are funding us €400m per week I'd say they're calling the shots to a degree, which I think could be our country's salvation...

- Carbon tax of some kind is definite, dearer petrol probably
- Childrens Allowance - taxed/reduced
- Tax - I have a sneaky suspicision that there'll be a 1% increase in higher rate despite what Brian Leno is saying
- Dole to be reduced below €200 (not enough)
- Water rates and/or a property tax introduced
- windfall tax on gains on property sales
- capital gains tax to increase sharply, this won't stop till its the same as the higher income tax rate
- not half enough done on the public sector bill

irish_bob

this is what they should do

politicians , judges , consultants etc , pay cuts of 20% immedietly and another 14% next year

guards , nurses , teachers , 10% this year and the same for the next two years

clerical officers or other lower paid ps workers , 5% pay cut this year and the same for the next year

social wellfare reduced by 10 % across the board in every area including the old age pension , the reason i have left this low is because i feel this is the one area which if targeted heavy could tip the population over

minimum wage reduced to 8 euro per hour

vat reduced back to the same levels as in the uk

themadchef

I predict the working man / woman with children will end up wondering if they will be better off on social welfare.

Carbon tax, tax the benefits, ppffttt, it will save a few quid all right.

Slash and burn through all the government departments and stop dribbling over it Brian!

I predict very little will change for the welathy.

kippy

irish_bob wrote: »

this is what they should do

politicians , judges , consultants etc , pay cuts of 20% immedietly and another 14% next year

guards , nurses , teachers , 10% this year and the same for the next two years

clerical officers or other lower paid ps workers , 5% pay cut this year and the same for the next year

social wellfare reduced by 10 % across the board in every area including the old age pension , the reason i have left this low is because i feel this is the one area which if targeted heavy could tip the population over

minimum wage reduced to 8 euro per hour

vat reduced back to the same levels as in the uk

Okay,
Fair enough, Jimmy and Irish_bob with their usual spiel. Wages need to be decreased la di da.... we are all aware of that and wages will hopefully be decreased HOWEVER
Anyone care to mention anything that may be in the budget in relation to:
1. Achieveing better value for money in the Public service (which to be fair, is where we should be looking)
2. Any kind of stimulus (outside the box thinking) to promote jobs in the greater economy.

These two items are of a serious importance for the medium to long term situation of this country and very few seem to be discussing either.

jady88

1. Tax increases on carbon tax for cars etc. Cigarettes alcohol both increased.
2. Childrens welfare taxed reduced and means tested
3. Social welfare reduced.
4. Public sector pay reduced hiring freezes etc.

Theboinkmaster

kippy wrote: »

Okay,
Fair enough, Jimmy and Irish_bob with their usual spiel. Wages need to be decreased la di da.... we are all aware of that and wages will hopefully be decreased HOWEVER
Anyone care to mention anything that may be in the budget in relation to:
1. Achieveing better value for money in the Public service (which to be fair, is where we should be looking)
2. Any kind of stimulus (outside the box thinking) to promote jobs in the greater economy.

These two items are of a serious importance for the medium to long term situation of this country and very few seem to be discussing either.

Sorry that's not really the point of the thread - we all have our own ideas about what should be done however I'm asking what you think is likely to be done.

IMO they won't introduce a property tax as too costly and complicated to administer, maybe the same with water rates. The government need CASH now so it will be quick and effective measures.

jimmmy

kippy wrote: »

Anyone care to mention anything that may be in the budget in relation to:
1. Achieveing better value for money in the Public service (which to be fair, is where we should be looking)

Reduce waste / improve productivity. Some people are employed who do very little....others work hard as it is. Reduce numbers in some areas...eg why are there 15000 in the dept of Agriculture, for only 100,000 full time farmers in the country ? If people in some areas are paid by direct debit, why pay them for half an hour to cash their cheque ...just because they always got that ? Why do some areas eg HSE have 19 sick days per year ? Why do college lecturers and Institute of Tech lecturers spend so little time lecturing?

kippy wrote: »

2. Any kind of stimulus (outside the box thinking) to promote jobs in the greater economy.

Cut the pay,pension + perks of those at the top in the country....a foreign industrialist told me once that Ireland reminded him of a third world country, how its leaders behaved. Reduce vat to UK levels ...the border counties have been decimated by cross border trade. Reform our education system. None of our universities are in the top league worldwide. Reduce school holidays...our schoolkids + teachers get too many holidays compared to others in Europe. Avoid the many millions of euro wasted on duplicating all government publications and signage in to the Irish language. Cut the number of quangos. Cut the numbers of politicians...we have a TD for every approx 21,000 people....no other European country has a ratio like that. Cut those p.s. pensions over say 20 or 40 k per year. Tax the lump sum windfall of the year and a halves salary lump sum payment for retiring p.s. employees on completion of service. Make the Gardai work more than the 30 years , and judges more than the 15, they have to work before they get the big pension. Reduce the perks + lavish lifestyle of those at the top, from the President down.
All this will help restore confidence in the public finances / encourage people to invest in the country.

kippy

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Sorry that's not really the point of the thread - we all have our own ideas about what should be done however I'm asking what you think is likely to be done.

IMO they won't introduce a property tax as too costly and complicated to administer, maybe the same with water rates. The government need CASH now so it will be quick and effective measures.

To be fair,
Predicting what WILL happen in the budget is pointless really pointless and about as useful as a waterproof teabag.


What WE SHOULD be doing is putting pressure on our local TD's and representatives to produce a budget that will be good for the long term prospects of this country, and not just focus on pay cuts and taxation.

Idbatterim

sterling is predicted to drop to parity with the euro! the vat should definetly be lowered to under 20%!

banquo

Idbatterim wrote: »

sterling is predicted to drop to parity with the euro! the vat should definetly be lowered to under 20%!

/fills car with petrol
/heads north with heavy pockets

irish_bob

kippy wrote: »

Okay,
Fair enough, Jimmy and Irish_bob with their usual spiel. Wages need to be decreased la di da.... we are all aware of that and wages will hopefully be decreased HOWEVER
Anyone care to mention anything that may be in the budget in relation to:
1. Achieveing better value for money in the Public service (which to be fair, is where we should be looking)
2. Any kind of stimulus (outside the box thinking) to promote jobs in the greater economy.

These two items are of a serious importance for the medium to long term situation of this country and very few seem to be discussing either.

cutting the wages of nurses and consultants and guards is a way of getting more value for money from the public service , that and what jimmy said above

Soldie

What I'd like to see happen? Large cuts in expenditure together with lower taxes.

What will probably happen? Insignificant cuts in expenditure together with higher taxes.

helimachoptor

I'd like to see a carbon tax but VRT/Road tax abolished and the a duty put on petrol diesel.

Wouldnt mind stampy duty being axed and a property tax.

Admin people in the PS pay reduced, Gardai, Firefighters, Nurses, Doctors pay freezes. Teachers pay reductions.

College fees €1000 per year for everyone no Admin fee.

A reduction in staff in the PS, more automation.

optocynic

FiannaFailum Budgetus Lenihanus

The latin: meaning.. removing a working person's entire finances through his anus!!

jimmmy

helimachoptor wrote: »

College fees €1000 per year for everyone no Admin fee.

Yes...in my list of constructive suggestions to help the public finances I forgot to mention third level fees...this is an area where a lot of reform is needed. Have a good look at the lifestyle of many of those in section 50 student accomodation around the country. Some people get paid to study. The car parks are overflowing in some complexes, but not as much as a year ago. Very very few cycle. The off-licence sales speak for themselves.

Dickerty

helimachoptor wrote: »

A reduction in staff in the PS, more automation.

What does that even mean?
You remember how much money the country has wasted on trying to increase automation in the Public Sector?

eVoting machines?
PPARS?
The Reach Services website that was shut down?

This government have ZERO concept of value for money when it comes to such projects. Any private sector company would do it better, they appreciate the bottom line...

Dickerty

Anyway, I think the key to surviving this budget is for everyone to feel the same pain.

Income tax bands MUST increase by 2%, or an equivelant pay levy.
All non-critical projects shelved, whether they be infrastructure, automation or art/sport types.
Property tax, though it pains me to say it.
Cut in social welfare and other benefits. The cost of living has decreased, we are in a deflationary environment, so this is the best chance to redress the balance.

ei.sdraob

I predict another emergency budget early in 2010

Long Onion

Water charges will not be introduced.

A levy will be placed on fossil fuels (petrol/diesel/coal/gas) possibly with an increase in the fuel allowance for the unemployed/elderly

The two tier pension tax reliefs will be replaced with one 30% band

The salaries of senior civil servants will be cut by 20%

The income tax bands will be raised and the levies abolished - Lenihan will deny that this amounts to a hike in tax as the net effect will be the same.

Childrens benefit will be cut by 15%-20%

Rent reliefs for those on welfare will be cut along with additional allowances, the current payments will be frozen at present levels, as will the state pension.

A property tax may be introduced.

dvpower

• Modest carbon tax.
• Child Benefit slashed by ~25%.
• Dependent child allowance increased to compensate poorer parents.
• No change to Income tax rates (but also no changes in the bands).
• Public sector pay cuts of 5-10% (targetted at the higher paid).
• Continued embargo on recruitment.
• Dole reduced by 5%
• Other cuts to social welfare including rent allowance.
• Large cuts in spending across most departments.
• Some quangos abolished. At least one goverment department merged.
• Committments on a property tax, water rates, but no immediate action.
• Some committments on large infrastructure projects (Metro North or DART interconnector)
• Abandon the airport passenger tax.

ednwireland

why call the carbon tax a carbon tax, considering there are no corresponding measures to reduce consumption. its seems to me politicians use this a s handy way of raising revenue and saying its for the environment so its allright, greenwash BS of the highest order /end rant

call it a revenue raising measure cos thats all it is, it has nothing to do with reducing carbon emissions

voxpop

They cant tax child benefit - its too complicated to tax. The may reduce it along with all social welfare, using deflation as the reason.

Carbon tax has already been mentioned - probably on gas/elec/petrol/diesel

VAT has to be reduced
Scrappage allowance introduced

maybe water tax

Definite cuts in public sector wages - the unions are already mobilising against this now

dvpower

ednwireland wrote: »

why call the carbon tax a carbon tax, considering there are no corresponding measures to reduce consumption. its seems to me politicians use this a s handy way of raising revenue and saying its for the environment so its allright, greenwash BS of the highest order /end rant

call it a revenue raising measure cos thats all it is, it has nothing to do with reducing carbon emissions

Isn't the tax itself a measure to reduce consumption (e.g. running the car gets more expensive; people shift to public transport)?

voxpop wrote: »

VAT has to be reduced

Maybe a rolling back of last year's hike

voxpop wrote: »

Scrappage allowance introduced

I wouldn't be in favour of Irish taxpayers subsidising the German car industry.

voxpop wrote: »

maybe water tax

Can't imagine how they could bring this in without metering.

Kered75

banquo wrote: »

/fills car with petrol
/heads north with heavy pockets

Why fill car with petrol before heading north when petrol will be cheaper up there

A carbon tax will close every petrol station in the border counties and maybe many more,putting more people out of work

max 73

voxpop wrote: »

They cant tax child benefit - its too complicated to tax. The may reduce it along with all social welfare, using deflation as the reason.

deflation in the cost of services is a myth - the above, childcare costs have risen by up to 20%, the child benefit we get goes towards creche fees as we both work & pay quite alot for creche fees for 4 days (mum minds one day) so reducing/taxing/etc would hurt us financially. if i was on a TD's salary then i wouldnt mind but i'm not, so do we give up one job & claim social welfare or continue working and come out every week with maraginaly more than the social welfare payments????? we'll keep on working but this is a small thing in the bigger picture but can they see the big picture?????????

voxpop

max 73 wrote: »

deflation in the cost of services is a myth - the above, childcare costs have risen by up to 20%, the child benefit we get goes towards creche fees as we both work & pay quite alot for creche fees for 4 days (mum minds one day) so reducing/taxing/etc would hurt us financially. if i was on a TD's salary then i wouldnt mind but i'm not, so do we give up one job & claim social welfare or continue working and come out every week with maraginaly more than the social welfare payments????? we'll keep on working but this is a small thing in the bigger picture but can they see the big picture?????????

Im in the same boat - looking at creche fees of 800 quid a month for 5 half days. Thats one of the cheapest as well !!!

Im not in favour of my predictions- I just think thats what FF will do and use the reduction in the cost of living as the reason.


@dvpower
Pretty simplistic view to think that a boost to the motor industry just benefits the germans. There are plenty of irish ppl employed in selling/servicing of cars.
I think they will introduce the scrappage allowance because it has been a success in UK and car sales (so vat/vrt) have collapsed.

On water charges - I was thinking more of a flat rate rather than pay for what you use.

dresden8

jimmmy wrote: »

a foreign industrialist told me once

Wow, foreign industrialists now. Is there no end to this man's interviewing skills?

How the hell did Tubridy get the Late Late show when jimmmy was available?

amacachi

If they put cigarettes or alcohol up they're very silly.

dvpower

voxpop wrote: »

@dvpower
Pretty simplistic view to think that a boost to the motor industry just benefits the germans. There are plenty of irish ppl employed in selling/servicing of cars.
I think they will introduce the scrappage allowance because it has been a success in UK and car sales (so vat/vrt) have collapsed.

On water charges - I was thinking more of a flat rate rather than pay for what you use.

It is a bit simplistic, but I think if we want to spend stimulus money, we should spend it on something where our economy retains more of it.


On water charges - a flat water charge isn't a water charge at all; its just another tax if you can't relate it to your water usage at all.

voxpop

dvpower wrote: »

On water charges - a flat water charge isn't a water charge at all; its just another tax if you can't relate it to your water usage at all.

and FF would never introduce a stealthy tax like that :pac:

BroomBurner

Agree with previous posters that value-for-money in the PS is needed. There is plenty of it about, but also plenty of waste. Perhaps a more transparent system of expenditure?

Anyway, possibilities on the budget:

- reduction of social welfare by €20-€25
- reduction of child benefit
- would like to see a slight reduction in corporate tax, just ever so slight(0.5-1%), to see if it will encourage more companies to relocate here. If it doesn't work, raise it back up next year
- Motor tax to increase
- Reduction in stamp duty
- Increase of the higher tax-band by 1% (to make a big deal of showing that they're capable of "taxing the rich")
- Reduction in funding to third level education

Hmm, can't think of much more at the minute.

mrgaa1

I also think that the carbon tax will extend to home heating oil as well as the usual fuels.
I would also favour removal of stamp duty and the introduction of a property tax but done in a fair way e.g. anyone who has paid stamp duty is exempt until the new property tax amounts up to what they paid over a number of years
reduce the amount of welfare
reduce the public servants by 20-25% over the next 2 years
reduce the tax on cigs, alcohol to encourage more drinking and smoking which would drive the cheap ciggies out of the country

gerry28

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I predict another emergency budget early in 2010

Or a press conference with a shook looking Lenihan and a stern faced IMF chief announcing a sizable loan!!

lmimmfn

said on the news there will be a 7% decrease in public sector pay across the board.

cyclopath2001

lmimmfn wrote: »

said on the news there will be a 7% decrease in public sector pay across the board.

That's not correct. What's proposed is a cut in the pay bill.

In talks with Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan at Government Buildings on Tuesday night, union leaders were told that the Cabinet was looking to cut the public sector pay bill by 6.85 per cent, or €1.3 billion.

Union leaders were told this reduction could come about by pay cuts or through alternative measures. Reducing the public sector pay bill does not necessarily involve cutting basic pay as it could be achieved, for example, by scaling back on numbers employed, curbing allowances, overtime or premium rates (variable or non-core pay) or pension payments.

Some departments have alreday acheived cuts, it remains to be seen if their staff will have to bear the burden of the profligacy of other departments, especially those whose ministers are still buying votes.

RealityCheck

As per Newstalk this morning it looks like the Government are planning to half the dole for those under 24. This accounts for some 90000 people, considering 25% of those under 25 are unemployed. This will more than likely account for a vast chunk of the welfare adjustment, with a decrease in child benfit also likely.

Dickerty

It really bothers me that the unions are going to pull so many strings around with the government does with it's own departments.

They need to get control back - these are providing services based on government policy and the public need, and they should be able to make every decision on the direction of those services. If they get it wrong, they will be judged accordingly.

Where were the ******* unions when public sector bodies were wasting money and being inefficient and overstaffed? They certainly weren't offering up any saves...

Diarmuid

RealityCheck wrote: »

As per Newstalk this morning it looks like the Government are planning to half the dole for those under 24. This accounts for some 90000 people, considering 25% of those under 25 are unemployed. This will more than likely account for a vast chunk of the welfare adjustment, with a decrease in child benfit also likely.

Great way to encourage emigration.

Nody

Diarmuid wrote: »

Great way to encourage emigration.

It is all part of the plan as the young once can send home money to their family to spend!

mac09

it looks very likely that a carbon tax will be introduced but will this pave the way for the abolishing of vrt?

what do people think?

ardmacha

Reduction in funding to third level education

On what basis, that less students are taken in, that registration fees increase? Third level education did not increase hugely during the boom.

I also think that the carbon tax will extend to home heating oil as well as the usual fuels.

Logically it has to apply to heating oil , green diesel etc. Not sure how it will work with natural gas and electricity.

it looks very likely that a carbon tax will be introduced but will this pave the way for the abolishing of vrt?

How on earth can VRT be abolished when the country has a €20bn deficit?

irish_bob

Diarmuid wrote: »

Great way to encourage emigration.

like an unemployed person would recieve more wellfare abroad , this is a good although at the same time an utterly predicatble move by the goverment

the under 24,s are less likely to have dependants , those in their thirties are most likely to have dependants and the elderly , well they have middle aged kids who dont want to see their inheritence spent on pills and doctor bills as shown by the street protests this time last year

tough descisions have to be made and the under 24,s being stripped of a large chunk of thier dole wont raise the ire of the liberal media to the same degree as cutting other demographics might , having too generous a wellfare state robs young people of the incentive to better themselves through a solid work ethic so all in all i dont see too much wrong with this move

Diarmuid

irish_bob wrote: »

like an unemployed person would recieve more wellfare abroad ,

People don't emigrate to take advantage of the dole elsewhere. They emigrate to get a job.

irish_bob wrote: »

l, having too generous a wellfare state robs young people of the incentive to better themselves through a solid work ethic so all in all i dont see too much wrong with this move

Well it's cynical, they have no voice and don't have some special interest group behind them. It is encouraging the people we need here, to get the hell out of the country. Again.

BraziliaNZ

irish_bob wrote: »

guards , nurses , teachers , 10% this year and the same for the next two years

so you're saying a 30% decrease of their wages in the next 3 years? Are you insane? How on earth are those people supposed to live on 70% of what they've got now? They will put up the prices of alcohol and cigs as usual, introduce more hidden taxes, and the cost of living is not really getting any cheaper in Ireland. There's no way people can still pay their mortgages and live normal lives, the cost of living needs to be lowered dramatically.
You need to realise that the public/civil service makes up a huge percentage of Irish workers, and cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

BraziliaNZ

mrgaa1 wrote: »

reduce the public servants by 20-25% over the next 2 years

Yeah really great idea, 25% less nurses and Gardai, because our healthcare system is so great and the streets are really really safe. What planet are you living on?

ParkRunner

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/budget2010/readyreckoner10.pdf

Thought this was interesting..calculations of various proposals for the 2010 budget in relation to income tax and the various credits that are available

dvpower

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

Yeah really great idea, 25% less nurses and Gardai, because our healthcare system is so great and the streets are really really safe. What planet are you living on?

It may be that planet where you need to pay your own bills.

dvpower

EF wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/budget2010/readyreckoner10.pdf

Thought this was interesting..calculations of various proposals for the 2010 budget in relation to income tax and the various credits that are available

Interesting bit in there on the cost of reintroducing a child tax credit.
It might be a good idea to abolish Child Benefit and replace it with a mix of tax credits and targetted social welfare payments.

eoinbn

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

so you're saying a 30% decrease of their wages in the next 3 years? Are you insane? How on earth are those people supposed to live on 70% of what they've got now? They will put up the prices of alcohol and cigs as usual, introduce more hidden taxes, and the cost of living is not really getting any cheaper in Ireland. There's no way people can still pay their mortgages and live normal lives, the cost of living needs to be lowered dramatically.
You need to realise that the public/civil service makes up a huge percentage of Irish workers, and cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

Well if their biggest worry is about how they will afford to buy fags and alcohol then I think they need to rethink their lifestyle.

30% sounds huge, and it is, but it will probably be close to that by the time this is over. As you point out any cuts will hurt the economy in the short-term as it reduces the amount of money in the economy. This means ANY cut, or tax, we make will not have anywhere near the effect that it appears to give on the surface. The proposed €4b in spending cuts will probably only end up saving us €2b as PS workers will be paying less income tax, and everyone that has a few euro less will be paying less VAT/excise duty etc.

cutting their wages by that much could really damage the entire economy, thus deepening the hole we're already in.

If you follow that logic, which is the unions line, then pay increases are the answer to all our problems. It's a bit like a heroin addict saying that the best solution to his problem is to easy the pain by taking another hit instead of going cold turkey.