Law of Averages..

Former Great · 17-09-2009 12:03am #1

Just wonderin what you people think of sundays all ireland football betting and what way it will go .. I think Cork are a huge price at 4/5 outright and im thinking of lumping on them ..This kerry team have been on the way down since last year in my opinion , they should have been beaten by longford and Sligo this year and the law of averages is favouring Cork, they've failed four times in recent years to beat Kerry at Croke Park,there due a win.. Cork have been fairly impressive all year,i think there a long ways better than this kerry team, surely there time has come..

profitius · 17-09-2009 12:13am

Its a hard one to call. It all comes down to who wins the midfield battle and Corks mentality. It could also be decided by a bad refereeing decision. Kerry have also lost only once all year.

I think its Corks year though. They destroyed Kerry in Cork and should have beaten them in Kerry and I disagree with all the pundits who said Kerry were not trying. They were trying in both games. Corks new coach seems to have given the players new belief and they look like a team thats on a mission. That said if I do have a bet on it I won't put too much money on it.

Gone West · 17-09-2009 12:17am

Former Great wrote: »

the law of averages is favouring Cork, they've failed four times in recent years to beat Kerry at Croke Park,there due a win

My god I hope youre joking?
Law of averages? Due a win?
While yeah I do fancy cork to win the all Ireland, basing it on fake science and hilarious flawed logic is foolish.

Former Great · 17-09-2009 12:34am

FuzzyLogic wrote: »

My god I hope youre joking?
Law of averages? Due a win?
While yeah I do fancy cork to win the all Ireland, basing it on fake science and hilarious flawed logic is foolish.

Even if you leave the law of averages out of it u would still have too strongly fancy Cork ,i agree with you profitus , its bull that Kerry werent full trottle , no team when it comes to the championship goes out not trying there best to win..Dont remember much of the first game this year but yeah Cork were by far the better team in the replay..Any truth in the rumour that donaghy and tommy walsh wont start?

cashback · 17-09-2009 12:46am

Although this Cork team have a great chance of winning, I'd be vary wary of lumping on them. This Kerry side lives to play in Croker and performs best on the big day. So many times I've thought they would be beaten and when they're cantering to another big win, I always ask myself why I thought that.
There must be safer bets out there.

Mellor · 17-09-2009 6:38am

[ ] Law of Averages

donglen · 17-09-2009 7:17am

I think it's definitely Corks year, the past few meetings between the two in Croker you always felt that Kerry had a bit of a psychological advantage in that they believed they were better than Cork and Cork believed that too. This year however Conor Counihan has brought a huge change to this Cork team, as well as playing their best football for years (sorry Billy), they're physically and mentally tougher and I believe that this year they're actualy relishing the chance of a crack at Kerry on All-Ireland day.
4/5 sounds a great price to me.......through these rose-tinted glasses.
Rebels Abú.

Mellor · 17-09-2009 7:37am

I'm taking kerry. Any price > evens for Kerry is +EV imo

Boxfresh · 17-09-2009 8:45am

I've got Cork done since the start of the campaign at 9/1. C'mon Cork!

Former Great · 17-09-2009 12:41pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

I've got Cork done since the start of the campaign at 9/1. C'mon Cork!

Fair play do you stand to win much.. I couldnt decide weather to back Cork or dublin earlier in the year and ended up goin for dublin.. It was an accum and if i had of put cork in instead id be waiting on them for an absolute fortune..

Boxfresh · 17-09-2009 1:07pm

Former Great wrote: »

Fair play do you stand to win much.. I couldnt decide weather to back Cork or dublin earlier in the year and ended up goin for dublin.. It was an accum and if i had of put cork in instead id be waiting on them for an absolute fortune..

Nah it was only a few quid I've got on them. Nothing major.

ingo1984 · 17-09-2009 2:46pm

i cant see past kerry for this game, and think they will win it quite comfortably.

Former Great · 17-09-2009 4:01pm

ingo1984 wrote: »

i cant see past kerry for this game, and think they will win it quite comfortably.

Whats your reasons for thinking that ..They ve been bad all year ,only decent result they got was dublin and thats was due to d dubs collapsing after a few early scores ..They were poor against Meath aswell

Reginald P. DuM · 17-09-2009 4:12pm

The law of averages is tremendously flawed betting theory, one which would see a man in the poor house before long.

On Sunday I can't see past Kerry, have a small sum on them at evens just for the interest. Folk can make a very good case for Cork without doubt, but for me tradition will win the day.

Former Great · 17-09-2009 4:25pm

Tradition doesnt give Kerry the right to win the game , this Kerry team havent the legs to live with Cork , i dont think .. they've alot of miles on the clock .. If its a wet day i can see Cork goin to town on them , i think the wet day wouldnt suit kerry ..Kerry like to move the ball with short handpassing and short kicks they like to play through teams in croker , a wet day wont suit that .. If its wet it will suit Cork big time i would think there a much bigger team..Havin said all that i havent heard the forecast but u know this country , it will surely be a wet day...

candlegrease · 17-09-2009 5:19pm

Former Great wrote: »

Even if you leave the law of averages out of it u would still have too strongly fancy Cork ,i agree with you profitus , its bull that Kerry werent full trottle , no team when it comes to the championship goes out not trying there best to win..Dont remember much of the first game this year but yeah Cork were by far the better team in the replay..Any truth in the rumour that donaghy and tommy walsh wont start?

Lol

Former Great · 17-09-2009 5:36pm

candlegrease wrote: »

Lol

What are you lol for?

Reginald P. DuM · 17-09-2009 6:29pm

Former Great wrote: »

Tradition doesnt give Kerry the right to win the game , this Kerry team havent the legs to live with Cork , i dont think .. they've alot of miles on the clock .. If its a wet day i can see Cork goin to town on them , i think the wet day wouldnt suit kerry ..Kerry like to move the ball with short handpassing and short kicks they like to play through teams in croker , a wet day wont suit that .. If its wet it will suit Cork big time i would think there a much bigger team..Havin said all that i havent heard the forecast but u know this country , it will surely be a wet day...

I know tradition doesn't entitle a team to win anything, but it does equip the Kerry team with the necessary experience and mental strength to secure Sam. The fanfare that goes with an All Ireland is something that should never be under-estimated, and it will be entirely new to a lot of these Cork players. Kerry are at home when they play in Croke Park and I expect them to come through on Sunday, though not by much. The thoughts of defeat to Cork in the final will be too much to bear, and after losing earlier in '09 they won't let it happen again. If I didn' have euros on it I'd be shouting (hoping) for Cork, just to see the honours spread around more.

modmuffin · 17-09-2009 7:23pm

Itll be tight enough Sunday, lets not forget Kerry drew the first Munster final, and if my memory serves me right, in the replay Kerry had scored 5 or 6 consecutive points at the start of the 2nd half to get within a point of Cork when they got a penalty and finished well to win.

I wouldnt lump on at 4/5, it will be a tight oul one as they say.

Rev. BlueJeans · 17-09-2009 7:29pm

I think Cork will scrape it, but I wouldn't put my shirt on it!

17-09-2009 7:51pm

Kerry in an All Ireland final @ 5/4.

Yes please :cool:

Mellor · 17-09-2009 11:57pm

Former Great wrote: »

What are you lol for?

He is laughing because your logic is ridiculous. The law of averages has no place here. How can you apply the law of averages to a one off bet?

Add to that the fact that you think kerry were full trottle/playing at their best in the first game and its a rather funny old situation. I think fair odds for the match would be to swap the two prices

Former Great · 18-09-2009 12:41am

Mellor wrote: »

He is laughing because your logic is ridiculous. The law of averages has no place here. How can you apply the law of averages to a one off bet?

Add to that the fact that you think kerry weren't full trottle/playing at their best in the first game and its a rather funny old situation. I think fair odds for the match would be to swap the two prices

I said Kerry were full trottle ...

Mellor · 18-09-2009 2:13am

Former Great wrote: »

I said Kerry were full trottle ...

sorry typo above, I meant to say you think they were full trottle, not weren't

profitius · 18-09-2009 11:45am

I've backed Cork.

jacool · 18-09-2009 3:29pm

the standout bets for the weekend are
1) the draw 15/2 both sides have pros and cons. i see a tight niggly game with both trying to deny the other playing their own styles or dictating the game. also this gives the option of laying later on if it stays tight. the only risk would be one side scoring an early goal.
2) O'Leary red card 10/1 low stake
3) Galvin red card 10/1 equal stake to 2

Law of Averages..

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