How far through the recession are we?

hobochris

I just wanted to get a few opinions on this(particularly those of people more knowledgeable then myself in this matter):

If lets say we marked our progress through the recession on a scale of 1-10.

1 being the start of the recession and 10 being recovery with small growth in the economy and a more optimistic jobs market.

Where do you think we are in this recession?

I'd like to think we are around 6, but I am being optimistic.

AlekSmart

I`m thinking a 3,Bob

population

1

We are nowhere near coming out of this

merlynthewizard

We are as of last wednesday 2.34% of the way through this recession.

spank_inferno

we're a '6' into the recessaion.

regarding repairing the lives ruined by FF incompetence: '1'

RiverWilde

Lets see ... where are we on that scale. I'm not an economist, just a typical citizen living here and from what I see this isn't a recession, it's a depression and I doubt it has bottomed out just yet.

I'd give it a 1 - and that's pushing it.

Riv

Économiste Monétaire

7

who what when

Around 4 i reckon

consultech

This thread... Jesus.

Ah well; for what we lack in economic stability at least we make up for in optimism...

harsea8

I'd say the recession will end the next time we have a full day without rain (ie, f*cking never!)

ejmaztec

consultech wrote: »

This thread... Jesus.

Ah well; for what we lack in economic stability at least we make up for in optimism...

Pessimism is the new optimism:(

dvpower

I'd give it a 5, in the expectation that we might see a quarter of growth sometime towards the end of next year.

On the effects of the recession; unemployment figures, tax receipts ..., a 2.

Martyr

i'd say it depends on who you are.
for some, it hasn't started..we still have next year to get through...

zootroid

RiverWilde wrote: »

Lets see ... where are we on that scale. I'm not an economist, just a typical citizen living here and from what I see this isn't a recession, it's a depression and I doubt it has bottomed out just yet.

I'd give it a 1 - and that's pushing it.

Riv

I don't see us recovering for a long time. Other countries are starting to come out of recession now, but will take a few years for unemployment to fall. And thats whats so scary about Irelands case, even when we come out of recession in a few years time, it will still take years for unemployment to fall. Hardship for the better part of a decade.

Sand

I reckon the economy is about a 1.

The banks...depends on if NAMA is passed. Anything that helps the banks will **** the productive/taxpaying parts of the economy though.

Think a Goodbodys analyst said it best, anything that protects the taxpayer with regards to NAMA will hurt the BoI/AIB shareholder/bondholder. Its us or them in this new world...

Jaysoose

Going purely by the complete lack of urgency to get ANYTHING sorted out by our politicians i would say we are at .5

They can get a blasphemy bill through quick smart but when it comes to anything important they sit on their fat arses and feck off on summer holidays.

We are screwed people.

ashleey

Nama will have the effect of holding up property prices. That makes it more expensive for new entrants to start a business. That keeps growth down until costs in other countries rise to reach the level here. Looks like we'll need a good few years of growth everywhere else before ireland gets a chance. All the new taxes here just make life more expensive. Corporation tax may be low but workers need high wages to pay the levies etc. A further drag on growth. Then all the borrowing has to be paid back too...

Dublin_Gunner

How far through the recession are we?

I'd say about 1.5 - 2 years

jmayo

RiverWilde wrote: »

Lets see ... where are we on that scale. I'm not an economist, just a typical citizen living here and from what I see this isn't a recession, it's a depression and I doubt it has bottomed out just yet.

I'd give it a 1 - and that's pushing it.

Riv

We have a 20 to 30 billion budget deficit and the necessary expenditure cuts and tax increases haven't been made to go anywhere close to correcting this.
BTW I stated 20 billion in earlier thread and was corrected so I am using the Dept of Finance method of calculation stick finger in the air type method
Either way is it very bad. :mad:

When the increased taxes and ultimate cuts in public services and cuts in public expenditure finally arrive, then we will be back to 80s type scenario.

All the while productive industries are being hamstrung by lack of credit facilities and too high costs such as labour, energy and service charges.

Our comeptivitive advantage that we had circa late 80s early 90s no longer exists so don't hold out much chance of us coming out of this recession thanks to huge FDI.
That means we are on own to a degree.

The government appears to be waiting for something, anything that will come along to rescue the situation.

It is as if they are sitting on the deck of the Titanic in the vain hope that someone comes along to rescue them.

The cuts should already have been made.
Instead they farmed out the decisions to An Bord Snip and the Commission on Taxation.
Then these reports come in and we have to wait until November until decisons are actually made by government.

We have a huge overhang of property, that isn't hitting the markets because the developers and their bankers are waiting for the arrival of NAMA to take them. And NAMA proposers to hang onto these properties until the prices recover i.e. go back to 2007 prices :rolleyes:

Thus we have complete stagnation in the property sector, this has huge knock on affects across the economy and society.

And please note I do not think an economy is dependent on house prices or an economy should ever be based on selling houses to each other.
But the unknown market just adds unncecessary uncertainty to both personal homeowners and businesses.

Dublin_Gunner

With any bit of luck, just like 20 years ago, Ireland will go to the World Cup, and we'll drink ourselves out of it.

flanzer

Dublin_Gunner wrote: »

With any bit of luck, just like 20 years ago, Ireland will go to the World Cup, and we'll drink ourselves out of it.

Better start distilling them spuds as we won't be able to afford gargle next year

jimmmy

jmayo wrote: »

Our comeptivitive advantage that we had circa late 80s early 90s no longer exists so don't hold out much chance of us coming out of this recession thanks to huge FDI.
That means we are on own to a degree.

The government appears to be waiting for something, anything that will come along to rescue the situation.

It is as if they are sitting on the deck of the Titanic in the vain hope that someone comes along to rescue them.

The cuts should already have been made.
Instead they farmed out the decisions to An Bord Snip and the Commission on Taxation.
Then these reports come in and we have to wait until November until decisons are actually made by government.

I have to agree. When other countries recover the interest rates, oil etc will probably increase so will hit Ireland even harder. We are going deeper and deeper in to recession by borrowing 400 million a week + squandering it, in this economic apartheid society. Our children + grandchildren will be asking in the future why did the bulk of the population tolerate a government + their employees who are even still the highest paid in the known world?

jmayo

Dublin_Gunner wrote: »

With any bit of luck, just like 20 years ago, Ireland will go to the World Cup, and we'll drink ourselves out of it.

I would n't count on that either as now the best we can do is finish second in the group and we could end up meeting Russia, France, Portugal or Croatia in the playoffs :mad:

flanzer wrote: »

Better start distilling them spuds as we won't be able to afford gargle next year

What do you mean start ?

ashleey

Lets hope it's croatia. Anyone see the goalie clearance to rooney?

irish_bob

ashleey wrote: »

Lets hope it's croatia. Anyone see the goalie clearance to rooney?

i intend to put a hundred on england to win the world cup next year , they have no weakness and thier midfield , lampard , gerrad is in the form of its career

Max Power1

id say we are at a 2-3.

There is a ctual jobs being advertised now which wasnt happening six months ago. The rate of increasing unemployment is dropping (but the live register is still rising). Once the government doesnt **** up too badly with NAMA and valuations, and they cut public expenditure as expected (eg 10% cut in dole payments, tax child benefit etc) we should make some progress in q4 this year and more importantly q1 & q2 of next year.

Seth Brundle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo

bangersandmash

Max Power1 wrote: »

Once the government doesnt **** up too badly with NAMA and valuations, and they cut public expenditure as expected (eg 10% cut in dole payments, tax child benefit etc) we should make some progress

Most would agree that the likelihood of the many of the above happening is pretty slim.

Feckinhellman

This is the thin end of the wedge in my opinion .
We made it through the 80's to emerge with the Tiger (them were the days).only because we had no major dept hanging over us .Even if you kept your finances in order before you get lumped with the rest of the countries bad depts .Sinking your ship .


A very good question -how far through the recession are we ?-
Between 1 &10 .I'd say 1 .