Boccy's American Football betting thread

boccy23

I like punting on American Football and claim to know a little about the subject so I am going to start a thread with a number of bets.

I am not ging to prefer any wisdom on who wins it all at this stage. In all american sports and especially with Football, it's a case of get into the postseason and anything can happen. This has been proved by the Cardinals last year, the Giants the year before and may more. It is a long time since the "best" two teams in the AFC and NFC have played for the Superbowl and also a long time since the favourite won it all. So for this reason, any long term picks will be made at a later stage.

Week 1 games are notoriously hard to call and often playing the over line can be profitable. Defenses are generally not set and the very warm weather can lead to high scoring games.

But I will make two choices:

Atlanta Falcons giving 4
Indianapolis Colts giving 7

Both of the above are 10/11 shots so a €20 wager will return 72.90.

Best of luck to anyone who samples the delights of the NFL this year.

boccy23

No joy this week.

The Falcons covered easily and except for a meaningless end of game TD, the Colts would have done as well.

Ah well, there's always next week.

More to follow....

fippy

I will be following this thread closely

jacool

am doing a FF on the NFL.
Picked 6 this weekend and yes, the Colts let me down too.
I'll be here weekly too !!!!

pandyx

For some reason I've got interesed in the NFL this year, and I can't say that since the Bears won against the New England with McMahon, Payton and The Fridge....

Anyway, a great sport to have a punt on so going to pay much more attention to it this year.

boccy23

Will have a watching brief tonight as the spreads are wide, 10 and 11 points.

But I could see the Raiders beating the spread and the Pats blowing it away.

Matt Santos

I am not going to say much about the weekends game only to say that I have got my treble up and out of the 14 ties that have been played I have had 12 correct predictions!
I can tell you also that I was very surprised by the Jets in Houston but I should have taken into account that the Texans are notoriously slow starters.. But even in saying that I still thought they would handle the Jets under Sanchez..

With that gone by now we only have tonights games...
New England host the Buffalo Bills and the spread is 11.5 points. The Patriots will tear this crew asunder and could really put paid to a lot of wrangling that is going on in the Buffalo franchise.. Heads could really roll after tonights result.

The Oakland Raiders host the San Diego Chargers with the spread of 10 points on offer. Oakland have been awful this past few years and have made a few plunges into the free agent market. But, this San Diego team under Phillip Rivers really have all the guns to belittle the home team. I think that the Chargers have a point to prove this year after a topsy turvy start to last season with decisions going agaist them on the field of play.. I would be keeping them onside for the whole lot even at this early stage of the season!!

Prediction therefore is for both favs to cover the handicap (and maybe very comfortably as well!!)

boccy23

Had a look at this again and I agree with you Matt. I will go for a double for €20 and hope for the best.

I did have a double on the Saints and Falcons which came up over the weekend. Originally posted one didn't and then the Bungles fecked up an 8 timer. But hey it was my fault for thinking the bungles could change their stripes.

alphapa

intersting always saw amercian football as a good place to make some cash ill be taking ur tips lads!!!!!!!!!

Raoul

Stuck ten on Patriots -13.5 and Chargers -10. Returns 34.60! Come on!

Anyone know anywhere good to watch?

Matt Santos

Buffalo 7 Patriots 0 after the first quarter.
Owens running all over the place but not getting much action.
Brady starting to piece a nice run here though at the start of the 2nd quarter.

Matt Santos

7 all now.......... Middle of the 2nd quarter.
Patriots starting to click.:D

Matt Santos

Bills 24 Patriots 25

What could only be described as a Houdini special by Bellichick and Tom Brady!!

A wild last 2 and a half minutes gets a Patriot touch down followed by a dropped kick return! Pats go in again to take a single point lead. They go for two 2 point conversions and fail on both of them. Still had to hold on for the last 40 odd seconds to see if Trent Edwards and Co. could get close enough to kick a winner..

Patriots win but I think I will have to re-access this Bills package.

Warper

From what little I know about AF, the 1/4 back has to be decent if a team is to have any chance. Tom Brady is the best there is so the Patriots have to have a decent chance and at 9-2 I think I will be having a punt on them. I see some tipsters like the Eagles but McNabe is a known choker in the big games so no thanks. I dont know what the Patriots defense is like but hey who cares - Brady will carry them.

pandyx

I came across an interesting video clip yesterday regarding the NFL...It was something about not paying too much attention to the previous weeks results...I found it a bizarre bit of advice. I'll have a search for it, probably on Youtube.

boccy23

This weeks main bet is as follows:

New orleans over Philadelphia

With no spread it's an even game. McNabb most likely will not play and in a pretty even game I will take Brees over Kolb any day.

Under 42 points in the Tampa Bay V Buffalo game.

Both offenses are poor and I feel that while it may be an even game, 6 touchdowns between them is a stretch.

€20 pays €72.89.

I will also be doing an Accumaltor on the following:

Tennesse giving 6.5 versus the Texans
Atlanta giving 6 versus the Panthers
Jaguars giving 3 versus the Cardinals
Patriots giving 3 versus the Jets
Ravens getting 3 versus the Chargers
Giants getting 3 versus the Cowboys

A €10 accum would bring in €1564 so here's hoping.

Vikings

Have a small accumulator on todays games, 2 down 2 to go.

(Money Line) OAK Raiders 7/5 Won
(Point Spread) NO Saints +0.0 10/11 Won

(Money Line) CLE Browns 8/5 To Run (down 7-6 but like their chances, still early on)
(Money Line) BAL Ravens 29/20 To Run (think they will take the chargers, 7-7 at the minute)

4 Folds 5.00 returns 140.93

boccy23

No joy last night but did some doubles with the game selections for a break even night.

I fancy that Miami at home in a big game tonight will come good. A number of 0-1 teams played well in week 2 after bad losses, Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago and even Washington won!

So at 2.64 on Betfair, €20 on a Miami win.

Matt Santos

Week 3 and the waters should be becoming a little clearer........
A few good match ups this week with certainties in
1. Jets at home to a surprisingly poor Tennesse.
2. Ravens at home to a very poor Cleveland.
3. A rampant Giants hot from a great win in Dallas in Tampa Bay.
4. A stuttering yet winning Chicago away to an injury ravaged Seattle.
5. The Free scoring Saints away to an inconsistent Buffalo.

Ties to stay away from are
1. 49'ers away to Minnesota
2. Jacksonville away to Houston
3. Miami visiting San Diego
4. A horrible Green Bay travels to St. Louis.
Even the handicap betting is awful with these 4 ties with the 49'ers +7, Jaguars +3.5, Miami +6 and Green Bay an incredible -6.5!!

I know its early in the week but the treble at the moment looks like this....
1. Jets -3
2. Giants -7
3. Chicago -2.5
The handicap with the Ravens is a little tough with it being -13 so I will leave them out and The Saints should cover 5.5 but the other choices look enough for me.
Tempted to play the Denver Broncos in there to but I am going to give Orton another week or two to fill in the gaps..

Happy punting:D

KrustyUCC

NFL
Sunday, 27 September 2009
Arizona Cardinals v Indianapolis Colts Wouldn’t touch
Baltimore Ravens v Cleveland Browns Ravens
Buffalo Bills v New Orleans Saints Saints but just about
Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers Wouldn’t touch
Detroit Lions v Washington Redskins Skins
Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars Texans
Minnesota Vikings v San Francisco 49ers Wouldn’t touch
New England Patriots v Atlanta Falcons Wouldn’t touch
New York Jets v Tennessee Titans Jets but Titans dangerous as they badly need win
Oakland Raiders v Denver Broncos Wouldn’t touch
Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs Eagles even with Kolb
San Diego Chargers v Miami Dolphins Chargers
Seattle Seahawks v Chicago Bears Wouldn’t touch
St Louis Rams v Green Bay Packers Packers. Rams are horrible
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New York Giants Giants
Monday, 28 September 2009
Dallas Cowboys v Carolina Panthers Cowboys should do it

Will have a bet on Ravens, Skins, Texans, Giants, Eagles and Cowboys to win. Prob not good odds

boccy23

Houston giving 3.5 over the the Jags

Houston had a good bounce back last week. They are 6-1 against the spread versus the Jags at home.

The Jets giving 3 over the Titans.

The Titans are plain brutal and the Jets could be very good. The Jets are also 5-0 versus the spread when playing the Titans.

The Saints giving 5.5 to the Bills.

I have played the Saints in both week 1 and 2 happily and will continue to ride the Brees train until it derails. Might be never though.

In_tuition

I'll add my tuppence worth for this week if you don't mind.

San Diego total points under 25 5/6
NY Giants total points under 25 5/6
New Orleans total points under 29 5/6

all prices with Ladbrokes, €25 treble at 5/1

€50 Miami to beat San Diego 21/10

€50 Buffalo to beat New Orleans 9/4

Mysterypunter

In my book Houston are 2/7 chances and Buffalo 5/4, less than 2/1 ladbrokes go 10/19 and 9/4 which makes up at just on 4/1, take advantage.

In_tuition

San Diego total points under 25 5/6
NY Giants total points under 25 5/6
New Orleans total points under 29 5/6

all prices with Ladbrokes, €25 treble at 5/1

All under for a return of €125 profit.

€50 Miami to beat San Diego 21/10

€50 Buffalo to beat New Orleans 9/4

Sadly neither of the above won.

Overall €25 profit

Matt Santos

Great to take the shops for a few quid there..:D

Giants absolutely blew the Tamba Bay out of it with power Football. Brandon Jacobs really putting in a super performance.
The Jets got off to a flyer against Tennesse going 14 nil up very fast but had to hold out in the end. Hard believe that the Jets are 3 - 0 and that the Titans are a terrible 0 - 3.
The other game of the Treble of Doom was Chicago. Seattle started very fast with a quick 13 - 0 lead but fair play to Cutler and the Bears to reel them in and run out a relatively comfortable 25 - 19 winners. The killer for me was that with only a few minutes left on the clock Chicago were a point down and I was certain they would settle for the field goal and hence not cover the 2.5 handicap! But, they get the touchdown and the bet is up:D

Denver are really looking impressive and they may be worth looking at in the next few weeks ties. The other game that could have made it into a right good accum was Baltimore but I got spooked with the huge +13 handicap. But again, the Ravens spank the Browns by an impressive 31!!

Money up! Hope some of you took notice and shared in the luck and till next week Adieu.....

Chucky the tree

Matt Santos wrote: »

Denver are really looking impressive and they may be worth looking at in the next few weeks ties.

Avoid tbh. They've beaten the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. Hardly stellar oppostion. While the Bengals is now looking a good result it was the first game of the season and they won it on a fluke last minute miracle. Denvers following matches are Cowboys, Pats, @chargers, @ravens, Stealers. That's a brutal schedule. I'd be surprised if they pick up 1 win.

KrustyUCC

"Will have a bet on Ravens, Skins, Texans, Giants, Eagles and Cowboys to win. Prob not good odds "

Good thing i didn't make it to the bookies at the weekend

Warper

Anyone think the Patriots are value @ 8-1 to win the Superbowl with Ladbrokes?

Matt Santos

Warper wrote: »

Anyone think the Patriots are value @ 8-1 to win the Superbowl with Ladbrokes?

Ok, There are 32 teams that can win a superbowl. Well, 32 teams will start off trying to win a Superbowl! Of the 32 teams there are at least 16 that can and will not win a Superbowl. Out of the 16 teams that are left you can find probably 8 teams that will have serious ambitions to winning the Superbowl. Of that 8 teams You would have to think that the New England Patriots are one of those eight teams and really in the top 4 of teams that can go the whole way..
They have an exceptional offense lead by Tom Brady who is certainly in the top 3 QB's in the league at the moment and many peoples pick of the best. They have a very solid defence and are coached by the best tactician in the game at the moment in Belichick. They have suffered a few injuries and have lost Wes Welker and still stuffed a very progressive Atlanta all be it at home.

In a purely mathematics point of view they are sure value at 8/1 to win it all but its a long way out and anything can happen in the post season but I think the AFC is still a long way ahead of the NFC so its really a 5/1 shot that you are getting for 8/1.

I dont think that they will win it but 8's is value at the moment..;)

In_tuition

Anyone think the Patriots are value @ 8-1 to win the Superbowl with Ladbrokes?

They were 7/1 last night on Lads?

I placed 2 bets last night with my winnings!! on Baltimore at 10/1 & Pittsburgh at 16/1, fantastic prices I think.

The best value out there is New Orleans at 10/1 with Stan James. Chaotic price.

Warper

I backed the Patriots @ 8-1 with Lads. They were general 9-2 shots at the start and drifted due to 2 unimpressive opening games. Tom Brady is the best QB in the game and as stated, they have a fantastic coach. 8-1 just seemed too big for a team that most pundits picked at the start.

Royal Seahawk

Lost my stones last night. Lumped on a handicap treble of Giants -6.5, Packers-6.5 and Steelers -3.5.
Giants and Packers did the business but the ****ing Steelers gave up a touchdown to the BENGALS(!!!) with 14 seconds to go to lose the game. Sick.

cruiserweight

Stuck 40 on the Bengals at 9-4 during the final drive Was thinking about betting on the Lions but was not brave enough in the end

boccy23

Royal Seahawk wrote: »

Lost my stones last night. Lumped on a handicap treble of Giants -6.5, Packers-6.5 and Steelers -3.5.
Giants and Packers did the business but the ****ing Steelers gave up a touchdown to the BENGALS(!!!) with 14 seconds to go to lose the game. Sick.

I was similarly f****ed up by the Bungles. I had the same three in doubles and a treble. Just about covered myself.

Same thing for the Texans. They are as flaky as feck. I had them with the Saints and the Jets.

kryogen

this week was great for me but as i didnt post previously i wont gloat, i will complain however that the Titans awful mistakes on special teams and the receivers inability to hold onto a pass in the fourth quarter ruined a perfect run for me

this season is shaping up well and a lot of teams could make a big push this year

except the Browns who i fancy to go 1-15 or possibly 0-16 this season

Matt Santos

This coming week will sort out the men from the boys in so far as a selection betting week is concerned. This is the week that 3 and 0 records get smashed and the teams that beat them are the least likely!
Will be interesting to see who picks what here........

KrustyUCC

NFL
Sunday, 4 October 2009
Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions Bears
Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals Bengals
Denver Broncos v Dallas Cowboys Cowboys
Houston Texans v Oakland Raiders wouldn't touch
Indianapolis Colts v Seattle Seahawks Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans wouldn't touch
Kansas City Chiefs v New York Giants Giants
Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills wouldn't touch
New England Patriots v Baltimore Ravens wouldn't touch
New Orleans Saints v New York Jets wouldn't touch
Pittsburgh Steelers v San Diego Chargers Steelers
San Francisco 49ers v St Louis Rams 49ers
Washington Redskins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn't touch
Monday, 5 October 2009
Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers packers

Out of that lot i'll take Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Colts & Steelers

boccy23

KrustyUCC wrote: »

NFL
Sunday, 4 October 2009
Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions Bears
Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals Bengals
Denver Broncos v Dallas Cowboys Cowboys
Houston Texans v Oakland Raiders wouldn't touch
Indianapolis Colts v Seattle Seahawks Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans wouldn't touch
Kansas City Chiefs v New York Giants Giants
Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills wouldn't touch
New England Patriots v Baltimore Ravens wouldn't touch
New Orleans Saints v New York Jets wouldn't touch
Pittsburgh Steelers v San Diego Chargers Steelers
San Francisco 49ers v St Louis Rams 49ers
Washington Redskins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn't touch
Monday, 5 October 2009
Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers packers

Out of that lot i'll take Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Colts & Steelers

Straight Up or against the spread Krusty?

KrustyUCC

can't get odds in work so i'll get back to ya on that one. the spread on some of those games would be big me thinks

boccy23

Bears -10
Cowboys -3
Giants -8.5
Colts -10.5
Steelers -6.5

are the lines.

KrustyUCC

Bears -10 i'm thinking no at this point as Detroit will be pumped up after their win last week
Cowboys -3 yes
Giants -8.5 yes
Colts -10.5 yes
Steelers -6.5 yes they can't afford to be 1-3

boccy23

I'm struggling a little bit this week. The obvious ones have a decent spread to overcome and the tight ones are very close to call.

I may stick with winning teams, NO / IND / NYG, and take them to cover the spread. I will look at it tonight and post up tomorrow.

Warper

I really like the Patriots @ 5-6 with Boyles for the straight win against the Ravens. I saw the Chargers V Ravens 2 weeks ago and SD should have won it. Rivers got his highest ever yardage around 430. They were in the red zone 4 times and had to come away with FG's. I cant see Brady being that profligate especially at home. NAP Material. In Tom we trust.

kryogen

Warper wrote: »

I really like the Patriots @ 5-6 with Boyles for the straight win against the Ravens. I saw the Chargers V Ravens 2 weeks ago and SD should have won it. Rivers got his highest ever yardage around 430. They were in the red zone 4 times and had to come away with FG's. I cant see Brady being that profligate especially at home. NAP Material. In Tom we trust.

Ravens have an excellent D though, if Welker is not in the team i see the Ravens turning my team over!

one other big problem for pats, brady still doesnt look comfortable when stepping up and has been hesitant when pressured and still finding his rythem (he will find it of course!!) and with a defence led by ray lewis i can see him being put under alot of pressure..... patriots have injury concerns in defence aswell as the possible loss of welker to contend with

not saying i will back the ravens, i never back against the patriots, but i think i would just leave the game alone

kryogen

my picks this week are


Texans
Titans
Ravens
Bengals
Giants
Bears
Skins
Colts
Saints
bills or dolphins? probably bills, just
49ers
Cowboys
Steelers
Vikings

those who i will be betting on the handicap are possibly

bengals -6
cowboys -3
giants -8.5

100 returns 711.57

then for a longer cheaper bet i might do

bengals-6 10/11 cleveland are just awful
titans 4/6 they are too good to keep losing
saints 10/31 just backing drew brees to win the shoot out
cowboys 20/29 they dont usually fall apart till january
vikings 10/19 this one is based on nothing other then wanting a 5th team and whenever i back the packers they lose so i may aswell go against!

20 returns 217.06


havent fully decided on bets yet and will finalise when i her more on injury reports and team news

boccy23

Dallas Cowboys -3 @ Denver Broncos

Tennessee Titans -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants -9 @ Kansas City Chiefs

€10 on 1 Treble and 3 Doubles

Potential of €185.44 for €40 total stake.

cruiserweight

I will probably do a few accumulators of odds on bets, but undecided as to who to add yet. The two bets that I will place as singles will be 50 on the Patriots at 4-5 and 50 on the Chargers at 9-4.

Patriots are improving all the time and the Ravens did give up a lot of passing yards against the Chargers. I will probably make a decision closer to game time, depending on the fitness of Welker and Moss.

As for the Chargers at the Steelers. Neither team has had any success running the ball this year, if the Chargers get Bennett involved they might get some more production as he will grind it out where as Sproles will not. If it comes down to the passing game, I think that Chambers, Jackson and Gates are a much better core of receivers than Hines, Holmes and Miller. Plus the Steelers are missing Polamalu in the secondary, making it slightly easier for the Chargers to both pass and run on them. My only fear for the Chargers is their red zone production.

I am being tempted to bet on the Redskins to beat the handicap against the Buccaneers. They got a lot of yards against the Lions and Rams, but no end product. It is crunch time now, they need to click or some of the coaches could be shown the door. Could be a break out weekend, but do not know if I am brave enough.

Matt Santos

Right guys I know its late in the day but I had to post before the off anyway!

This week is a tough week. Teams like Tennesse do not want to go 0-4 but away to Jacksonville is not the place to be looking for the first win!
Detroit will be bouyed up with last wekks win but a still stuttering Chicago in Soldier field is not the route to fruit. The handicap is +10 but I still think the Bears may still cover it. Tampa Bay are travelling to Fedex to play a Jim Zorn side that MUST win to save his redskin! No Byron Leftwhich for Tampa so its an unknown IMO. Colts at home to Seattle that got off to a flyer last week against the Bears but still got reeled in. Peyton should cover the required 10 points.
Possibly the match of the weekend unless you are a Favre fan is in Boston with Baltimore trying to move past a hesitant Patriot team that still needs to drop the clutch and move up the gears. Defence wins these games and I think the Ravens may just sneak by. But my treble of doom looks like this.............

1. New York Giants to slam Kansas and cover the 9 point spread.
2. Cincinnatti to blow past the simple worst football team in Cleveland.
and..............
3. Dallas to go to Mile High and take out the Broncos. 3 points to cover.

Looked at Oakland to stay with the Texans (+8.5) Pittsburgh to give Rivers a nightmare and beat San Diego by at least 6.5, Miami at home to Buffalo being a level scratch game and New Orleans to take full advantage of home turf to slow the rampant Jets.

Green Bay (+4) is a huge rick IMO and I think that they really punch the Vikings in the face. The Packers to give it all for AAron Rodgers in this real grudge match with Brett now the other side!


Best of look boys!!:D

kryogen

I will not be backing the titans again this year! shocking display tonight..... Cowboys were poor tonight also and i dunno who they can blame it on now that TO is gone. Pats were very good i thought and ran the ball very well using 4 different backs!

i did the bets i posted on a previous page so you can work out that im not happy but i did have a saver bet so im not too bad

Matt Santos

Simply put.......... Tony Romo is not consistent enough at this level. Moments of genius is not enough for Americas team. To take the Cowboys in 46 odd seconds at the end to the red zone and come up short is just so frustrating its criminal. I sais it a few weeks ago that Denver were worth a look and I am now convinced that they may be the genuine article now.
New York Giants just do the job as per usual and are World class. Eli and Co do the Chiefs like they were a tin of kippers! Peyton does another number on Seattle. This may be the year of the Manning Bowl yet!!
Chicago stuff the Lions and Jacksonville rail road the Titans. New Orleans run a huge score up against the Jets! Why could I not pick two of those selections instead of the Bengals and the infuriating Cowboys!!
The Steelers were in a huge lead and let the Chargers back but still covered..
:mad:

KrustyUCC

Cowboys -3 yes
Giants -8.5 yes
Colts -10.5 yes
Steelers -6.5 yes they can't afford to be 1-3

bloody broncos :mad: