Calculating your edge?

Catenaccio!

Yet another thread from me...

How do you guys go about calculating your edge? Take tonight's match for example. The odds are as follows:

Newcastle 1.86
Draw 3.61
Leicester 5.09

All taken from Soccerway.com as that's the only thing I can access currently (all are best available odds).


So my question is, how do you price up this game? Some people will say that Newcastle should be closer to evens, are they just plucking this from the air?


Thanks.

Catenaccio!

Obviously not too popular here!

AARRRGH

I've posted something like this before, so apologies for repeating myself.

I used to work in the HQ for a large bookies. 99.9% of punters were down money. The 0.1%, if their profits were a few thousand or more, their accounts were closed.

Why were so many people down money? My conclusion is that they focussed on the odds. This meant they either chose bets which offered "value" or did accumulators.

I decided to strictly follow a plan where I ignore the odds (although I do shop around for the best odds) and instead only bet on who the "obvious" winner is. This strategy works for me as I am a few thousand in profit.

So my system is: pick who the winner will be, and then shop around for the best odds.

AARRRGH

PS That's not to say I don't enjoy the odd risky bet (I do), but when it comes to generating income I stick to the above system...

wireless101

^You'd want v. good knowldge for that sytem. What do you bet on, football?

directed at aaaargh btw

AARRRGH

wireless101 wrote: »

^You'd want v. good knowldge for that sytem. What do you bet on, football?

directed at aaaargh btw

Yeah, I only bet on football at the moment as it's the sport I know best.

In general there will be at least one "banker" every week. For example, last weekend Rangers were at home to Hamilton. I stuck €700 on it.

Basically if a big team are at home against a small team who have some injuries, it's worth (IMO) risking a decent bit of cash on the game.

Catenaccio!

AARRRGH wrote: »

I've posted something like this before, so apologies for repeating myself.

I used to work in the HQ for a large bookies. 99.9% of punters were down money. The 0.1%, if their profits were a few thousand or more, their accounts were closed.

Why were so many people down money? My conclusion is that they focussed on the odds. This meant they either chose bets which offered "value" or did accumulators.

I decided to strictly follow a plan where I ignore the odds (although I do shop around for the best odds) and instead only bet on who the "obvious" winner is. This strategy works for me as I am a few thousand in profit.

So my system is: pick who the winner will be, and then shop around for the best odds.

Appreciate your reply but I can't say I agree with it all. I know that very few people make money out of this game but it obviously can be done. Also, I typically use Betfair so the chances of my account being closed are pretty slim I'd imagine.

Why were so many people down money? My conclusion is that they focussed on the odds.

I'd disagree with that and say the opposite. I think they didn't even think about the odds and backed their selection regardless of the price they were being given. Over time, this would have lost them quite a lot of money.

ArmaniJeanss

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Appreciate your reply but I can't say I agree with it all. I know that very few people make money out of this game but it obviously can be done. Also, I typically use Betfair so the chances of my account being closed are pretty slim I'd imagine.



I'd disagree with that and say the opposite. I think they didn't even think about the odds and backed their selection regardless of the price they were being given. Over time, this would have lost them quite a lot of money.

I'd agree with this. Most people lose because they go into the bookies 'to back Newcastle' and will back Newcastle regardless of the price.
Whereas winning strategy would be to go into the bookies with an openmind as to whether to back Newcastle, Leicester, the Draw or No Bet depending on the odds.

As to how you go about pricing up the event yourself, its an inexact science but I guess 'tonnes of practice' is the best answer.

AARRRGH

Yeah, do whatever works for you. Just be sure you're being honest with your profit/losses.

thedini

As ArmaniJeanss said it's all about practice. Whatever sport you are interested in do your research and write down what you think the odds should be. Don't look up the forecasted odds, rinse and repeat and see how you get on. When you are pricing it up, up you will be calculating a 100% 'book' whereas the bookies will always include an overround.

Tbh if it's the premiership you are looking at then the bookies very rarely 'get it wrong' with regard to match odds. Of course it's easy for somebody to pick winning selections, most of the time the selection is chosen as Man Utd should win etc. The key is they don't factor in the true odds and so over time will lose. However, there are plenty of other markets which are relatively new, overs on corners etc where it may be possible to gain an edge.Gl with it.

AARRRGH

thedini wrote: »

The key is they don't factor in the true odds and so over time will lose.

If you are careful with your selections you can nearly be guaranteed a win every time. I would agree blindly betting on every Man Utd game doesn't make sense.