Has EUR/GBP hit its highs?

patbrady877

Want to get a few peoples opinions on this- three months ago all the talk was 1 for 1. Its bounced off .83 and now trading .88

Suggestions are that a sell off to .86/.85 on the cards........?

silverharp

here is one bearish opinion on the GBP. I'd be of the view that the big play between now and the end of the year will be a stonger $ and Yen and weaker GBP and Euro.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wmz32xeNKtU/SpWbgC5uSWI/AAAAAAAABIc/f76ww-K_ASc/s1600-h/British+Pound+10+month+daily+chart+to+8-26-09.png

robmchl

Goin' to have a spin on this one myself. Short from .8838 stop at .8850 targeting .8700 area. Draw a descending trendline on a daily chart and lash the 250 SMA on there too and see how she looks. Let's see how she goes.

robmchl

Chart

robmchl

Going to take profit here at the 4hr 20 @ .8776. Waiting for pull back up to 1 Hr 20 @ around .8800 for a 1-2-3 south again depending on price action. Lets see how it plays out.

robmchl

Price action was a bit hectic and flew through the 60 min 20EMA so no 1-2-3 for me. Had a tiny little punt all the same but stopped out. Didn't affect my initial position. I'm goin to hit this short again if we get it up to .8830+ mark depending on price action.

rugbyman

hello Rob, am very interested in forex. in my work over the years I change stg to euro, and study as I might I can never forecast which way it is going.
e.g. in the last week stg has fallen 10%. Can you enlighten me on this.

If you can take time to explain in easy speak how your above transaction went, i would be obliged.

in my work ,sometimes the stg in is changed at a better/worse rate than we had anticipated. While the gains are a bonus ,the losses can spoil the business transaction. I had some notion that I could place a spread bet to negate the losses. (by the way if you have any formulae for changing base metals into gold, they would be appreciated also!)

regards ,Rugbyman

patbrady877

?

robmchl

My next entry will be if the current level (.8779 area) is broken. I'll enter at this price short but only if we see a break of support, a pullback and find resistance off .8779 Again, we'll see how it all pans out but i think this 4HR 20 isn't going to hold.

Chart

robmchl

Hi Rugbyman,

The majority of my trades wouldn't be over a period of days or weeks so forcasting wouldn't be my speciality as such. Sometimes, opportunities do come up longer term where the risk is nothing compared to the gain (given the right entry) and the setup is fairly strong such as the EURGBP above. Forex trends quite well on most timeframes so stick with the trend as much as possible. It would take far too long to explain the ins and outs of how I trade here but i'll try give a few simple steps. For EURGBP, if EURUSD is trending upwards and GBPUSD is trending downwards then you want to be long EURGBP obviously as it is strongest in relation to the dollar. In relation to the GBPUSD -10% question, I haven't looked at it in detail but GBPUSD will move in the same direction as oil for the most part. Oil met resistance a few days ago (chart with triangle attached) so this would limit any upside GBPUSD would have resulting in the pullback you mentioned. I didn't trade any GBPUSD last week so wasn't watching.

Guaging the trend:

Put a 20 Exponential Moving average and a 50 Simple moving average on a daily chart. Make sure it's a candlestick or bar chart and then apply a 3 Exponential moving average to go through the candles. If the 20 Moving Average is above the 50 Moving Average, EURGBP will generally be in an uptrend. If the 20 Moving Average is below the 50 Moving Average EURGBP will generally be in a downtrend. That is a very simple way for you to guage the direction of the currency pair. You could probably use those two averages right down to a 5 minute chart and get pretty good results too but i'm not sure what time frames you need to work on.

In relation to that formula. No a clue.

Rob

robmchl

Busy little day for this pair. I'm staying away with all this news. The fall should have happened by now and was looking very good until the news hit. More news in a few minutes.
8:55am EUR
German Unemployment Change
-1K
33K -5K
9:00am EUR
Final Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.9 47.9
9:30am GBP
Manufacturing PMI
49.7
51.5 50.2
9:30am GBP
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-0.6B
0.4B 0.2B
9:30am GBP
Mortgage Approvals
50K
51K 48K
10:00am EUR
Unemployment Rate
9.5% 9.4%