Odds on Lisbon Treaty?

Red Sleeping Beauty

Hiya, is any bookies taking bets for the Lisbon Treaty outcome in October yet ? If so, has anyone idea who's giving what odds ?

Cheers,
and yeah I read last year's thread :P

ArmaniJeanss

Basically they all are.

The odds are roughly 1/8 Yes, 7/2 No at the moment.

wb

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Basically they all are.

The odds are roughly 1/8 Yes, 7/2 No at the moment.

Just goes to show the over-round at work all the same.

1/8 = 88.89% chance of winning
7/2 = 22.22% chance of winning

Total: 111.11%

An 11% over-round is pretty shabby in a two 'horse' race really.

At the moment, the over-round on the machine is 3% which is a good bit better.

ArmaniJeanss

I probably did them a bit of an injustice. Powers are 1/7 4/1 and Laddies are 1/12 11/2, (both around the 108% mark).

http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/lisbon-treaty-referendum/win-market

Red Sleeping Beauty

What's "over-round" ?

Mellor

Alan Rouge wrote: »

What's "over-round" ?

Basically the little bit a bookie takes off a markey to make profit.

Imagine betting on a coin heads or tails. Each has a 50/50 chance, so the true odds should be Even money, or (2.0 on BF)

However, if I bookie spread this, then he would probably price it at 10/11 or so. Which is 1.91 on BF.

To get the over round you take each option in decimal format, and divide into 100, then add them all up

Heads___10/11___1.91____100/1.91____52.4%
Tails___10/11___1.91____100/1.91____52.4%

Total market is 52.4+52.4 = 104.8% (the closer this number to 100%, the better the market is priced for the punter, or the lower even, as 90%>100% in theory)

Red Sleeping Beauty

I had a look at PaddyPower's site for the "Yes vote %". How come there's no "No vote %" ?

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/lisbon-treaty-referendum?ev_oc_grp_ids=111802

Mellor

lol
You not really thinking about it are you.

If the yes vot is 70%, then the no vote is 30%,
So every yes option, has a corresponding no option that isn't listed (as its more confusing to list two)

Red Sleeping Beauty

Ah... I didn't actually think of it like that

8-10

PP are offering NO @ 5/2, but offering YES = 50% and under @ 5/1.

For NO to win YES can't be greater than 50%. However YES can still win with exactly 50% or even under if there's enough spoiled.

So surely the 5/1 bet includes a NO win and also covers a narrow YES win?

Or am I reading it wrong? Seems like a no-brainer if you're betting NO (which was offered @ 5/2 v 1/4 YES last time around FYI)

But like the rest of the country (hopefully), the bookies shouldn't get it wrong a second time!

wb

They actually have a Yes/No market too! The over-round is roughly 8% at the moment.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/lisbon-treaty-referendum?ev_oc_grp_ids=62873

peterwhilluk

Who would you believe the pros or the anti's?
Ireland is not a neutral country as it stands, it allows US military craft to land at shannon and then to head on to the Middle East. And during the second world war it was sympathetic to the Germans.
So it kind of like suits itself , pretends its neutral just to suit its own economy.

Maybe i should vote yes, let Brussels have more power in Ireland, as it is now in such a shambolic state. Maybe the EU will bring in heavier laws against youngsters in pointlessly souped up cars.

Ireland cant stay neutral just to suit the USA and itself, .

You know what , even if the whole country votes no, it will be passed as a yes.

8-10

peterwhilluk wrote: »

Who would you believe the pros or the anti's?
Ireland is not a neutral country as it stands, it allows US military craft to land at shannon and then to head on to the Middle East. And during the second world war it was sympathetic to the Germans.
So it kind of like suits itself , pretends its neutral just to suit its own economy.

Maybe i should vote yes, let Brussels have more power in Ireland, as it is now in such a shambolic state. Maybe the EU will bring in heavier laws against youngsters in pointlessly souped up cars.

Ireland cant stay neutral just to suit the USA and itself, .

You know what , even if the whole country votes no, it will be passed as a yes.

Have you anything to add about betting on the outcome? You can discuss the treaty in a number of threads here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1069 by the way.

(and yes, you should vote yes, there's a lot more to it than neutrality issues, and your last statement is ridiculous beyond belief...but all points for discussion somewhere else, not here.)

peterwhilluk

no

Red Sleeping Beauty

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE57K2DN20090821

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Bookmaker Paddy Power has cut the odds on a "No" vote in a second Irish referendum on the European Union's Lisbon treaty after a flow of punters gambled on another defeat, a spokeswoman said Friday.

Irish voters, representing less than 1 percent of the 27-nation bloc's population, will once again decide the fate of the charter on October 2 after their shock rejection last year delayed its reforms, which are designed to streamline the EU's decision-making and give it a stronger voice in world affairs.

The most recent opinion poll, published in early June, showed 54 percent of respondents backed the treaty but last year surveys also showed a majority in favor until a few weeks before the referendum.

"We have seen a shift toward the 'No' side in the last couple of weeks and it appears our punters think things could be just as tight second time around," Sharon McHugh, a spokeswoman for Paddy Power, said.

"Until a few polls emerge however, there's just no telling how close."

Paddy Power cut the odds of a "No" vote from 5/1 against to 5/2 against -- a probability of two in seven.

Ireland is one of four countries that have yet to ratify the treaty.

Germany is expected to ratify the charter before elections on September 27 but Poland and the Czech Republic have said they will wait until Ireland approves the treaty before they endorse it.

The Irish government is hoping that concessions wrung from Brussels, fears of isolation during a global recession and a vigorous "Yes" campaign will swing them the vote.

So far, much of the impetus for the "Yes" side has come from civil society and business groups with little government campaigning.

Opponents of the treaty, who include disparate groups from the left and right, formally launched their campaign earlier this week, arguing the charter would leave workers worse off.

(Reporting by Carmel Crimmins; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

I'd imagine the odds will shift once some more polls come in and the main parties on the "yes" side get their campaign going. A few "no" campaigns have begun, including Coir.

Noland

backed last result no @ 10/3 150 win.
backed this time around again no vote @ 4/1 100 win.

i will be voting no since they didnt seem to get the message.

Red Sleeping Beauty

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/lisbon-treaty-referendum?ev_oc_grp_ids=113552

Will the Lisbon Treaty be passed the second time around? Thursday 1st October 2009, 21:00 Second Time Lucky?

Singles Only.
Applies to the re-run of the Lisbon Treaty Referendum 2nd October 2009.

Yes 1/25
No 8/1


Not much to be made so when the yes vote comes in.
They're also doing a constituency bet.

cashback

I can see it being a yes vote of 55.01% to 60% at 9/4.

It's going to be reasonably close but I think the Yes side will have a bit to spare.

Warper

cashback wrote: »

I can see it being a yes vote of 55.01% to 60% at 9/4.

It's going to be reasonably close but I think the Yes side will have a bit to spare.

I think about 63% Yes

8-10

Warper wrote: »

I think about 63% Yes

That's what it was last time with Nice II, though not really a valid correlation, but the first Lisbon was very similar to the first Nice:

First time Nice - YES 46.1%, NO 53.9%
First time Lisbon - YES 46.6% NO 53.4%

Second time Nice - YES 62.9% NO 37.1%
Second time Lisbon - ???

As for constituencies they're odds-on for nearly everything. Here's a quick breakdown of the Top 10 NO constituencies the first time around, and current PP odds for it being NO again:

Dublin South West - 65.1% NO 1st time, 7/4 for another NO
Donegal North East - 64.7% NO 1st time, 1/2 for another NO
Cork North Central - 64.4% NO 1st time, 11/10 for another NO
Dublin North-West - 63.6% NO 1st time, 11/8 for another NO
Donegal South-West - 63.4% NO 1st time, 8/13 for another NO
Mayo - 61.7% NO 1st time, 9/4 for another NO
Dublin South-Central - 61.0% NO 1st time, 2/1 for another NO
Dublin Mid-West - 60.4% NO 1st time, 2/1 for another NO
Kerry North - 59.6% NO 1st time, 5/1 for another NO
Louth - 58.1% NO 1st time, 11/4 for another NO

Unfortunately you can't do doubles or anything but I'd be very confident on both above Donegal constituencies voting NO again. I'd also say there's more money to be made betting on NO's in Dub SW, Dub NW, Dub MW and Cork NCentral than there is predicting YES's in constituencies other than these ones as the odds are very poor, odds on in EVERY constituency bar Donegal SW, which makes that constituency's 8/13 NO very attractive.

My 2cents.

amacachi

8/1 for NO is very tempted. I'm trying to get my dad to back it so that a yes vote goes through. Won't work if I give him the money, the universe knows somehow. :pac:

Red Sleeping Beauty

8-10 wrote: »

That's what it was last time with Nice II, though not really a valid correlation, but the first Lisbon was very similar to the first Nice:

First time Nice - YES 46.1%, NO 53.9%
First time Lisbon - YES 46.6% NO 53.4%

Second time Nice - YES 62.9% NO 37.1%
Second time Lisbon - ???

Lisbon I had a higher turnout than Nice I, surely that plays a factor ?

8-10

Alan Rouge wrote: »

Lisbon I had a higher turnout than Nice I, surely that plays a factor ?

I would certainly say so, I just thought it was interesting how close both were the first time to each other and how Warper predicts the same margin.

Personally I'd go 55-60% Yes but to be honest I couldn't give a fudge as long as it is Yes in the end.

With my betting hat on, I'm looking at the constituencies, and as I said, the Donegal two as I'm very familiar with the area. There's no money in betting on Yes IMO.

8-10

Noland wrote: »

backed last result no @ 10/3 150 win.
backed this time around again no vote @ 4/1 100 win.

8/1 now....

PhatPiggins

8-10 wrote: »

8/1 now....

17.5 on betfair

Have laid the yes for 1.06 for shi ts and giggles.

Red Sleeping Beauty

I take it no one won anything then ?http://www.rte.ie/news/features/lisbontreaty/overview.html