Are the markets heading down again?

MrMatisse

Big kick downwards today.

Has the rally of the last 5 months been overdone?

pog it

The sense I'm getting is downward for the short term on stocks- long term good prospects. Am holding off myself as I've heard oil is short term bearish and it's looking to be coming true.

Definitely seek other opinions.

pirelli

1.The dollar has bottomed.
2.The shanghai index ( SSE Composite Index ) Ticker sha:0001 has in technical terms a double top or to the fundamentalist the chinese bank had some sobering news, but its dropped from a high very steeply particularly on monday.
3.A strong correction was in the works.
4. This could be serious and we might have a strong drop/
5. Tuesday should be better the shanghai has still opened negative but no where near as bad as monday and its once already trended up.

SO get ready to throw your money back on the stock:)

strmin

I'd say get in while you can.

david....

Really-Stressed wrote: »

Big kick downwards today.

Has the rally of the last 5 months been overdone?

i was expecting the aib shares to head down back to 1.20 or there abouts and a month back that did not happen.

then i turned my attentions to when there losses were being announced and still after a 900million loss the shares still went up

i am still waiting to invest in aib at my target but i am not 100% sure that they will not even return to 1.50 even with bad news

there are also a lot of very low volumes in the banks lately like only 460,777 in boi today. that could sense that a lot of people are waiting to buy the shares at at lower price!

pog it

david.... wrote: »

i was expecting the aib shares to head down back to 1.20 or there abouts and a month back that did not happen.

then i turned my attentions to when there losses were being announced and still after a 900million loss the shares still went up

i am still waiting to invest in aib at my target but i am not 100% sure that they will not even return to 1.50 even with bad news

there are also a lot of very low volumes in the banks lately like only 460,777 in boi today. that could sense that a lot of people are waiting to buy the shares at at lower price!

The Irish banks (together with Irish government) are a law onto themselves- I think the OP was talking about the global rally that has been going on.
There is a thread specifically about the banks where they are debating investing in the banks.

pog it

pirelli wrote: »

1.The dollar has bottomed.
2.The shanghai index ( SSE Composite Index ) Ticker sha:0001 has in technical terms a double top or to the fundamentalist the chinese bank had some sobering news, but its dropped from a high very steeply particularly on monday.
3.A strong correction was in the works.
4. This could be serious and we might have a strong drop/
5. Tuesday should be better the shanghai has still opened negative but no where near as bad as monday and its once already trended up.

SO get ready to throw your money back on the stock:)

They were saying yesterday that a lot of the rally was down to companies cutting back their costs and overheads in a major way and was not itself down to more sales per se or more consumer confidence.

Stocks are relatively low but it's important not to forget there is potential and room to go lower.

pirelli

pog it wrote: »

They were saying yesterday that a lot of the rally was down to companies cutting back their costs and overheads in a major way and was not itself down to more sales per se or more consumer confidence.

Stocks are relatively low but it's important not to forget there is potential and room to go lower.

Thats very true and there is a punch cartoon in the wall street journal that depicts the companies as a speed boat pulling a very slack rope attached to a water skier that labeled jobs.

The irony is the companies are making thousands of employee redundant which in turn makes their balance sheets look better in the short term but the knock on effect is higher unemployment.


However the unemployment figures released in the usa are getting better, and more importantly the Federal reserve noted that the economy is in recovery and leveling out and forecasting a better third quarter with a positive GDP in the near future.


Negative Consumer spending and employment are a big obstacle but there are companies making money.


Germany and France have already had a positive GDP.

patbrady877

September is never a great month for stocks ...... nearly all daily news is positive (results, reports ect) - that cant last forever

pog it

pirelli wrote: »

Thats very true and there is a punch cartoon in the wall street journal that depicts the companies as a speed boat pulling a very slack rope attached to a water skier that labeled jobs.

The irony is the companies are making thousands of employee redundant which in turn makes their balance sheets look better in the short term but the knock on effect is higher unemployment.


However the unemployment figures released in the usa are getting better, and more importantly the Federal reserve noted that the economy is in recovery and leveling out and forecasting a better third quarter with a positive GDP in the near future.


Negative Consumer spending and employment are a big obstacle but there are companies making money.


Germany and France have already had a positive GDP.

That's interesting alright. I guess there can't be another massive financial fall-out worldwide. Surely the worst is over and it's onwards and upwards, no matter what the speed?

Lexus1976

Looks like a another dip in the market is very likely on Monday. Gives me another opportunity to buy into under priced shares

GoldBullion

I believe we are in a bear market rally. Bear markets do not end with stocks still trading at nearly 20 times earnings and the dividend yield barely at 3%. And they don’t end when people are hoping, praying and expecting them to end. They end in despair... after people have given up hope. They end with dividend yields over 5% and prices at only 5 to 8 times earnings.

Bullish

I pasted this info from another site, It is not my own analysis.

In my attempt to determine the seasonal trendencies of the S&P 500 based on the data associated with the 59 years between 1950 and 2008, inclusive, I found there were 41 years (69.49%) when the index moved higher from January to August and 18 years (30.51%) when it moved lower during the same period.

In the 41 years when SPX rose over the first eight months, it rose in September 19 times (46.34%), was flat in September once (2.44%), and fell in September 21 times (51.22%).

In the 18 years when SPX fell over the first eight months, it rose in September six times (33.33%) and fell in September 12 times (66.67%).

Accordingly, I believe it would be fair to say September is a pretty lousy month under both conditions, but it is more lousy in years when the S&P 500 has fallen during the preceding eight months and less lousy in years when the index has risen during the preceding eight months.

silverharp

GoldBullion wrote: »

I believe we are in a bear market rally. Bear markets do not end with stocks still trading at nearly 20 times earnings and the dividend yield barely at 3%. And they don’t end when people are hoping, praying and expecting them to end. They end in despair... after people have given up hope. They end with dividend yields over 5% and prices at only 5 to 8 times earnings.

A bit to go I think

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SqCiLW9lQ2I/AAAAAAAAGzI/DBHBZRH7ilM/s1600-h/S%26P+PE+Ratio.png

AARRRGH

I suspect a lot of companies are only now making drastic cuts (or planning drastic cuts) as their wait and see approach has been going on too long.

I'd be getting nervous if I were an investor!

MrMatisse

For those fans of technical analysis out there the fibonacci measure is now starting to point to a very big downward movement starting between the 24 Sep - 16 of oct

Valuations starting to look stretched. Very high p/e ratios across europe without commensurate high expectations for corporate profitability.

Signs for a drop getting stronger.

Lexus1976

I found this article interesting.

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/central-banks-have-inflated-yet-another-bubble-93813.aspx

karltimber

Really-Stressed wrote: »

For those fans of technical analysis out there the fibonacci measure

Hi,

do you have any really good infomation/learning websites for this info on fibonacci - i have looked at a few but would like to learn more.

The whole idea of number sequences working with stock prices and their pull-backs etc is amazing.

thx

K