How similar is now to the 1980s?

Fabio

Hi guys,

I've never posted on this forum before but do try keep tabs on current affairs which essentially means the economy right now!

I'm currently reading an exerpt from Joe Lee's book Ireland 1912 - 1985 about the Irish economy from the mid seventies through to the early eighties and the figures struck me.

Is there any strong comparison to be drawn between Irelands position, financially now, between the present time and the 1980s?

Tim Robbins

Fabio wrote: »

Hi guys,

I've never posted on this forum before but do try keep tabs on current affairs which essentially means the economy right now!

I'm currently reading an exerpt from Joe Lee's book Ireland 1912 - 1985 about the Irish economy from the mid seventies through to the early eighties and the figures struck me.

Is there any strong comparison to be drawn between Irelands position, financially now, between the present time and the 1980s?

More people owed far more to the banks for shoe box apartments and tiny houses now then the 1980s. In the 80's it was more a case of the government owing other banks and lenders money. People's private debt was much smaller.

Unemployment is probably higher now.

On the positive side (depending on your perspective), the dole and public service pay is much much much higher than it was in the 1980s.

LostinBlanch

Also in the 80's there was large scale emigration encouraged by the government. Brian Lemihan when he was Tanaiste said that this island was too small to support the amount of people that we produce. You can find the correct quote somewhere. So the flipside of that meant that the population was 99.99999% Irish seeing as noone else came here.

Credit card debt was unheard of seeing as banks didn't give them out to people. People were desperate to get a job, any job but there were very few going. The debt was public debt not private for reasons given above.

Riskymove

basically it was very different then, it was a prolonged period of low employment which forced many abroad.

while the numbers unemployed now may be, in real terms, higher its because we were coming off such a high level in employment but with far too many connected to the construction sector.

as someone says people did not have large mortgages but then again interest rates were sky high making personal debt very difficult to enter into and there was also very high income tax

the government had only basic services in operation so cutbacks really had an impact, especially in health.

Salvelinus

Isn't now like the country went from the 80's through a strange space time continuam pyramid shaped blip that was 1997 - 2008 and back to the 80's?

Electric Sheep

Riskymove wrote: »

basically it was very different then, it was a prolonged period of low employment which forced many abroad.

while the numbers unemployed now may be, in real terms, higher its because we were coming off such a high level in employment but with far too many connected to the construction sector.

as someone says people did not have large mortgages but then again interest rates were sky high making personal debt very difficult to enter into and there was also very high income tax

the government had only basic services in operation so cutbacks really had an impact, especially in health.

Pay rates where a lot lower too - even if you were working, you were barely getting by. People with a few kids were better off on social welfare than working.

If you dared to ask for a raise, you were told that you were lucky to have a job and that plenty of others would take it at that salary so like it or leave it.

Tim Robbins

Electric Sheep wrote: »

If you dared to ask for a raise, you were told that you were lucky to have a job and that plenty of others would take it at that salary so like it or leave it.

That's the way it has been in I.T. for 5 out of the last 8 years.

I think another big difference is that the banks lent way less back then. Maybe they knew the government was so skint they'd never be bailed out and FF didn't have the dominance they have had for the last 12 years.

MrMatisse

Its probably worse now as the debts people have will weigh on consumption for a few more years. We have the right framework for recovery as we did in the 80's but the build up of debt is a problem.

kevteljeur

Personally, I think people are over-cooking this connection to the '80s, for a number of reasons. The economic deterioration is for different reasons, the state's economy is vastly over-valued (hence the strong deflation, which would be a killer in most other economies but is necessary here), massive personal debt, and of course we're using a currency which is primarily outside of our control, and numerous other important issues.

The 'sense of community' which existed in that time has for the greater part gone; you can't rely on friends and neighbours to help out in the same way, because for a lot of people, you have weaker ties to your friends, and you might not even know your neighbours to see. And we are a different people now. Some good changes, some bad changes, and overall different.

In a nutshell, although there will be some similarities in a few years when the recession settles in (seriously, we've barely started tasting the emergency budgets yet) I'd say it has more to do with nostalgia, viewing that time through somewhat rose-tinted glasses. Give it three or four years and then we can make some comparisons.



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who_ru

Good post Kevteljeur, i agree we are only just entering this thing, speaking as someone who will be out of a job in the new year i'm not overly optimistic regarding employment, i'd say we are facing 15%-17% unemployment before anything good happens. such a shame.

irish_bob

Tim Robbins wrote: »

More people owed far more to the banks for shoe box apartments and tiny houses now then the 1980s. In the 80's it was more a case of the government owing other banks and lenders money. People's private debt was much smaller.

Unemployment is probably higher now.

On the positive side (depending on your perspective), the dole and public service pay is much much much higher than it was in the 1980s.

how is that a possitive for the majority

leincar

irish_bob wrote: »

how is that a possitive for the majority

In fairness I had a friend who was means tested in 1984 and managed to get IR£6. and a butter voucher.

kevteljeur wrote: »

Personally, I think people are over-cooking this connection to the '80s, for a number of reasons. The economic deterioration is for different reasons, the state's economy is vastly over-valued (hence the strong deflation, which would be a killer in most other economies but is necessary here), massive personal debt, and of course we're using a currency which is primarily outside of our control, and numerous other important issues.

The 'sense of community' which existed in that time has for the greater part gone; you can't rely on friends and neighbours to help out in the same way, because for a lot of people, you have weaker ties to your friends, and you might not even know your neighbours to see. And we are a different people now. Some good changes, some bad changes, and overall different.

In a nutshell, although there will be some similarities in a few years when the recession settles in (seriously, we've barely started tasting the emergency budgets yet) I'd say it has more to do with nostalgia, viewing that time through somewhat rose-tinted glasses. Give it three or four years and then we can make some comparisons.



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I couldn't agree with you more.

DublinWriter

There's a lot more happening with the 'internal' economy now. Back in the 80's you'd be lucky if the local shop put an ad up for a part-time assistant. Jobs were that scarce.

I think it's going to be a whole lot worse this time around as people now have a lot more personal debt (only rich people had credit cards in the 80's), we're in a negative equity situation with a greater proportion of home ownership plus the whole black economy hasn't really come back the same way as it was in the 80's.

DeVore

This is nothing like the 80's I came out of school in 1988 and went straight to college because there was nothing at all for me otherwise. I came out of college in 91 and went straight on the dole. I was lucky, I got an interview and landed one of 4 jobs for which 100+ people were interviewed and hundreds more were turned down flat.

All of my mates graduated and just about all of them emigrated too.

Whats happening here is a recession in my language while the 80's was a depression.

Now people are losing their second houses and cars and yes jobs, but then there WERE no jobs to lose, there were no loans to get a house in the first place.

The world already seems to be coming out of the Big Bank Lockup which brought on this "cold snap". In the 80's things were systemically wrong with this country and no one seemed to know how to fix it.

DeV.

mike65

Indeed, while the only technical period of recession was in 1983 the entire decade was in fact a prolonged economic slumber only curtailed by some drastic and frankly co-incidental events that happened to have the right effect.

Back then we had nothing so while it was bad it was sort of normal now whereas now the Celtic Cubs are in shock. The good news though is that your Bimmer/Merc is still a very nice car and it'll not rot in the driveway like a 1977 Escort did the last time.

Fabio

So people reckon that the 80s was a period of massive government debt but now we as individuals are in debt more so than the 80s anyway???

I can understand people saying that now is very different as well because people are losing second cars and stuff compared to losing very little due to the absolute poverty in the eighties and the prospect of no hope at all.

dresden8

DeVore wrote: »

This is nothing like the 80's I came out of school in 1988 and went straight to college because there was nothing at all for me otherwise. I came out of college in 91 and went straight on the dole. I was lucky, I got an interview and landed one of 4 jobs for which 100+ people were interviewed and hundreds more were turned down flat.

All of my mates graduated and just about all of them emigrated too.

Whats happening here is a recession in my language while the 80's was a depression.

Now people are losing their second houses and cars and yes jobs, but then there WERE no jobs to lose, there were no loans to get a house in the first place.

The world already seems to be coming out of the Big Bank Lockup which brought on this "cold snap". In the 80's things were systemically wrong with this country and no one seemed to know how to fix it.

DeV.

You're assuming this is as bad as it gets.

We're in a downward spiral at the moment. Post Bord Snip and post budget 2010, people who are currently bailing out the banks will lose their disposable and base income to taxes and levies, to bail out those banks.

Banks will expect repayment of credit cards and mortgages out of that income and when those repayments can't be made, they will turf their benefactors out of their houses. No NAMA for householders.

We're in phase 1 of the collapse still. There's more to come.

The developers have collapsed. The morgage and credit card markets are still intact. This cannot be sustained.

Collapse 2 & 3 are yet to come.

The retail market is bad enough as it is, when disposable income is hoovered up by the the government the retail market will also disappear.

Collapse number 4?

If, as you say the world is coming out of the "lockup" the recovery will lead to higher oil prices and interest rates to dampen down inflation in mainland Europe.

Collapse numbers 5 & 6?

What happens after that, who knows.

There is a long way to fall.

DJDC

Originally Posted by DeVore
This is nothing like the 80's I came out of school in 1988 and went straight to college because there was nothing at all for me otherwise. I came out of college in 91 and went straight on the dole. I was lucky, I got an interview and landed one of 4 jobs for which 100+ people were interviewed and hundreds more were turned down flat.

From talking to friends graduating this year, it has proved almost impossible to find a job so the current situation for college grads isn't far off what you describe above. There's too many grads chasing too few jobs.

I think the big difference between now and the 80s was the relative difference between Ireland and other developed countries. In the mid 80s, Irish unemployment was at 18% but in the US and UK it was only 6%. What a difference! Likewise the GNP, average wages etc. were all much lower. The country had been devasted by years of corruption from the state. We were a genuinely poor country back then and The Economist ran a famous cover "poorest of the rich" in 1988, although I can only get a rubbish image here:

http://wpcontent.answers.com/wikipedia/en/e/e7/CelticTigerEconomist.PNG

The worrying thing is high Debt/GDP, high unemployment, emigration all seem to be coming back for the same reasons as before: an incomponent state unable to react quickly enough to world events.

DJDC

How things come full circle:

http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3261071

The Economist proved no better than anyone else at predicting this turnaround. Our most recent previous survey of Ireland, “The poorest of the rich”, published in 1988, concluded that the country was heading for catastrophe, mainly because it had tried to erect a welfare state on continental European lines in an economy that was too poor to support one.

lostinsuperfunk

another big difference is that the banks lent way less back then. Maybe they knew the government was so skint they'd never be bailed out

Sadly not that different... remember in 1983 the taxpayer coughed up £400,000,000 [*] to get AIB out of a spot of bother, admittedly not caused by bad lending practices, but due to its misadventures in the reinsurance world.

Good ol' AIB. Where would we be without a strong indigenous banking sector?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaperfinance/2008/0919/1221690003389.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_Irish_Banks

[*] figure is from wikipedia so maybe not reliable

Bren Jacob

I know the general tone of the discussion on this thread is about the economic comparisons but on a human level you now have mobile phone technology, 24 hour a day multichannel satellite tv, wireless broadband and a far greater choice of live entertainment................a recession for softies as Iv taken to calling the present situation.

gurramok

As i said on aonther thread here, we just have to wait and see what the jobs market is like for graduates and school leavers alike.(suspect badly)

If it is indeed that bad with a severe lack of jobs with no alternative to emigration for a few years, it will become a depression for a lost generation.

kevteljeur

DJDC wrote: »

How things come full circle:

http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3261071

They could hardly have predicted the ingenious way in which successive Irish Governments managed to temporarily turn Ireland into a wealthy state, not entirely unlike re-mortgaging your house twice and then treating the resulting cash like a Lotto win in the hands of a less-than-prudent 17 year-old, and telling everyone that you're loaded. By the end of it, you have no friends, no money, and no house, but at least you'll be the butt of bitter jokes for decades to come.

In a sense, Ireland should have been stuffed, but just managed to delay it for a bit. I still think comparisons with the '80s are only useful to help understand where we are at now, not as a direct comparison. Equally we should compare with the early '90s, and see where it all went wrong...



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Riskymove

DJDC wrote: »

From talking to friends graduating this year, it has proved almost impossible to find a job so the current situation for college grads isn't far off what you describe above. There's too many grads chasing too few jobs.

there is a difference in that in the 80s there literally were no jobs at times

there were queues of people, including grads, for jobs in places like Mcdonalds

while grads and those made redundant may not be able to get jobs within their professions there are still jobs albeit in other areas/lower levels

the connected issue there is, as discussed on these threads, the level of welfare and the disincentive to work up to a certain salary. This was not there in the 80s

Tim Robbins

irish_bob wrote: »

how is that a possitive for the majority

It's not at all. And it's certainly one reason it's going to be very difficult for the country to get out of the recession. It's only a positive for those who work in the public service.

I see no political party with the will to cut and snip and I despair because I think the IMF will inevitably tell the government to do it.

GUIGuy

The 80's was worse in terms of living standards and overall outlook I'd say. People talk a lot about absolute numbers rather than relativities and capabilities.

Currently we have 12% unemployment but we had 20% and higher in the 80's. Yes, the absolute numbers are higher now... but our population is almost a million more than then.

There wasn't much non mortgage debt back in the 80's and house prices were a lower multiple of earnings but mortgage rates tipped 15%!
There were no free fees for university, almost everything was means tested and our infrastructure wasn't crap... it was non existant. Clothes and food were far more expensive relative to earnings.

The in period 1980-83 PAYE wages dropped by 17.7% and the upper PAYE rate was 65% on top of 8.5% of insurance and other levies. Some even talked about taxing odd jobs people did at home for themselves as it denied a worker employment that could be taxed.

700,000 people marched in protest in 1980 against the PAYE tax burden (it was and still remains the largest ever protest as a % of a states population in a single campaign in mordern history).

We had trouble in the north and we weren't too welcome abroad at the time. We had massive inflation, travel outside the country was a lifetime decision and we hadn't many of the gorgeous foreigners we have today.

We had governements failing and elections/referenda every other year and the threat of WWIII.

So not really comparible at all if you ask me.

Tim Robbins

GUIGuy wrote: »

We had trouble in the north and we weren't too welcome abroad at the time. We had massive inflation, travel outside the country was a lifetime decision and we hadn't many of the gorgeous foreigners we have today.

That's a very good point about the North. It really things more depressing.
Also about cheap travel, it didn't really exist. I remember the odd time we went abroad we used the car ferry. I'm sure it was the same with everyone else. And the RC Church had the entire nation under a spell which thankfully has broken.

However, I don't think you're correct w.r.t. inflation. I remember FG got this right down.

So not really comparible at all if you ask me.

In some respects no way. We had no Argos, Dixons, Power City or Ikea.

But in many respects we were better off in the 80's. A place like Cabra was consider for people who didn't go the third level and lived on very low wages or none at all to live.

Now, highly educated professionals live there but in negative equity.

In fact Cabra is a step up from the average dwelling considering the majoriy of us live in shoe box apartments.

Tech3

This current recession cant be compared to the 1980's well not just yet anyway. Were only a year in recession and if it does end next year then we still have over 120 billion of debt to deal with.

We can only compare this to the 1980's in about 3 to 4 years when we are taxed through the roof, public sector cut heavily and mortgage interest rates increased. It could potentially be worse than the 1980's eventually.

jmayo

dresden8 wrote: »

You're assuming this is as bad as it gets.

We're in a downward spiral at the moment. Post Bord Snip and post budget 2010, people who are currently bailing out the banks will lose their disposable and base income to taxes and levies, to bail out those banks.

...
There is a long way to fall.

Whole heartedly agree.
We have seen nothing in terms of government cuts and tax increases as of yet. They have to bring the deficit back form 20 odd billion.
Added to that we have been lucky in that oil prices decreased and ECB rates are very low.
Niether of these can be guaranteed to stay as is for long term.
Also they are out of our hands. :mad:

lostinsuperfunk wrote: »

Sadly not that different... remember in 1983 the taxpayer coughed up £400,000,000 [*] to get AIB out of a spot of bother, admittedly not caused by bad lending practices, but due to its misadventures in the reinsurance world.

Good ol' AIB. Where would we be without a strong indigenous banking sector?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaperfinance/2008/0919/1221690003389.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_Irish_Banks

[*] figure is from wikipedia so maybe not reliable

Well that was what you got for insuring a space shuttle that blew up and all the telegraph or electricity poles that were burned down in bush fires in NSW Australia :rolleyes:

Bren Jacob wrote: »

I know the general tone of the discussion on this thread is about the economic comparisons but on a human level you now have mobile phone technology, 24 hour a day multichannel satellite tv, wireless broadband and a far greater choice of live entertainment................a recession for softies as Iv taken to calling the present situation.

Yeah but you have forgotten the little elephant in the corner, all of thse new necessities that make the recession softer cost money.
People who were on the dole in the 80s didn't have a phone (even land line), satelite TV subscriptions, broadband, new 2.0 litre cars, etc.

Now poeple's kids have phones, broadband and thus bills :rolleyes:

gurramok wrote: »

As i said on aonther thread here, we just have to wait and see what the jobs market is like for graduates and school leavers alike.(suspect badly)

If it is indeed that bad with a severe lack of jobs with no alternative to emigration for a few years, it will become a depression for a lost generation.

IMHO this is going to be much worse than the 80s.
In the 80s people didn't have anything so we had nothing to lose, we weren't used to all the trapping of a good standard of living.
It is going to be a massive culture shock for a lot of people, especially the young generations.
People didn't have huge mortgages, they didn't have all the anciliary bills we have today that goes with sat tv, broadband, mobile phones, etc.

In the 80s Ireland was a cheap manufacturing location, offering reasonably bright English speaking cheap labour, membership of EU market and low corporation tax.
We no longer have those advantages over other countries when trying to attract FDI and it was FDI that kicked started our Celtic Tiger and our march out of the dark 80s.

To make the whole thing worse, the alternative of emigration is no longer as available to help the government rid itself of some of the unemployment burden and to give individuals a chance of a better life.
The US is haemorrhaging jobs and the days of surviving long term as an illegal is long gone thanks to 911.
The UK is a mess also so no great glut of jobs there.
Eastern Europeans are now competing in the likes of Germany so not as much of an option as before.
Forget Australia they are in recession or nearly there thanks to slowdown in China.
Canada maybe option but they will want the skilled and educated.

For those lucky to be in a job taxes are going to increase, education fees are going to come back and public services, as bad as they are now, will be cut back.
People will be stuck in negative equity land for years.

Oh and notice I did not even mention the anchor dragging us to the bottom -
NAMA :mad::mad:

Bren Jacob

Totally agree but the point I was trying to make is that there is more outlets to offer you at least some relief from the sheer bleakness of a full blown recession.
One of the worst parts of the 80's for me personally was the fact that it was so bleak on a social level and there was very little to do to escape the claustrophobic feeling that prevailed in the country at the time bar going to the pub and getting pissed.

jmayo wrote: »

Yeah but you have forgotten the little elephant in the corner, all of thse new necessities that make the recession softer cost money.
People who were on the dole in the 80s didn't have a phone (even land line), satelite TV subscriptions, broadband, new 2.0 litre cars, etc.

Now poeple's kids have phones, broadband and thus bills :rolleyes:

Sand

One of the worst parts of the 80's for me personally was the fact that it was so bleak on a social level and there was very little to do to escape the claustrophobic feeling that prevailed in the country at the time bar going to the pub and getting pissed.

Welcome to Ireland 2009

Electric Sheep

Bren Jacob wrote: »

Totally agree but the point I was trying to make is that there is more outlets to offer you at least some relief from the sheer bleakness of a full blown recession.
One of the worst parts of the 80's for me personally was the fact that it was so bleak on a social level and there was very little to do to escape the claustrophobic feeling that prevailed in the country at the time bar going to the pub and getting pissed.

Little to do? You could look at moving statues, hear novel theories about women having twins with two different fathers, wonder why teenage girls die having babies under a non-moving statue, write letters to your friend who emigrated, engage in endless circular debates about contraception, abortion and divorce...

The 80s in Ireland really were hell on earth. The big mystery is that anyone ever wanted to go back there once they got out of it. I certainly never even considered going back there to live, phony "boom" or not...

ardmacha

One of the worst parts of the 80's for me personally was the fact that it was so bleak on a social level and there was very little to do to escape the claustrophobic feeling that prevailed in the country at the time bar going to the pub and getting pissed.

I had great craic in the 1980's.

nesf

Right, seriously we've seen nothing like the 80s.

Think of it this way, the 80s were a continuation of the economic slump of the 70s. There was some pick up between the two but in general we had an underperforming economy with long term chronic employment. This is a dramatically different past to what we have now. We've just entered a depression, we're not loaded with a previous decade's worth of Government Debt, we're not loaded with a previous decade of lack of investment. One of the key things about the Celtic Tiger years was we were paying catch-up investment wise in our infrastructure. There was **** all investment over a 20 year period and we were still not ahead of the curve when the bubble burst despite having poured money in over the previous decade.

This is painful yes, but people have very short memories if they think now is as bad as then. I was lucky, I was only in school during the 80s but I remember my uncles all struggling for work and thinking that chocolate once a week was a luxury etc and my father earned a good wage back then (not professional but enough that we never had serious money problems).

ronbyrne2005

Not sure how to compare with 80s. My father worked for Council in an average job whole time and we never wanted for anything and my mother didnt have to work. He could buy a good house in a good part of Dublin on that wage. Thge black economy back then was large meaning the unemplyment figures were'nt as bad as they seemed as loads of people on dole were also working on the side when they could get it. Money was being sent back from abroad too to keep households going and debt was scarce.

I think we could getmuch worse than 80s if right thigns arent done. Private debt is very big and governmnet debt will also become huge over next decade as budget deficits stay and NAMA net costs finally settle north of 30billion. I dont see where the employment is gonna come from. I dont see how the debt is gonna be quickly paid off. I see disposable income being cut significantly by pay cuts and higher taxes. I see emmigration becoming more and more common as economies around the world recover meaning less people here paying taxes, less retail and housing demand etc and more tax to be paid by those staying here to pay for the government debt from Budget deficits and NAMA.
~They say exports are key to our future prosperity but we didnt develop one major Irish exporter/MNC during the boom. Vast vast majprity of our exports come from a few major foreign companies.

gurramok

We have Ryanair to help fly the emigrants out!

nesf wrote:

we're not loaded with a previous decade's worth of Government Debt

Nama? Even if it is not offically added to the national debt, the cost of it still has to be paid back through our taxes?

nesf

gurramok wrote: »

Nama? Even if it is not offically added to the national debt, the cost of it still has to be paid back through our taxes?

No, you miss my point, we're not starting this recession already loaded with an enormous amount of debt. Imagine NAMA if we already had 100% of GDP worth of public debt..

Salvelinus

What do people think caused the bad patch in the 80's to end and did anything happen to prolong it? It mazes me that we have a great workforce who can do so well abroad but at home we just can't get things going.

jmayo

nesf wrote: »

No, you miss my point, we're not starting this recession already loaded with an enormous amount of debt. Imagine NAMA if we already had 100% of GDP worth of public debt..

But at the individual level there are far more crippling debt.
40 year mortgages where repayments are based on two salaries.

Salvelinus wrote: »

What do people think caused the bad patch in the 80's to end and did anything happen to prolong it? It mazes me that we have a great workforce who can do so well abroad but at home we just can't get things going.

Well haughey's government, with McSharry at the helm of finance, got it's act together in 1987 backed by Dukes and the Tallaght strategy.
Social partnership helped and we were lucky in that we managed to attract in Microsoft, Intel and Dell world leaders in their respective areas.
Of course the cheap corporation tax, access to EU markets and cheap educated workforce helped in no small measure.
Also in late 80s-early 90s Reynolds' government managed to swing big cash injection from Brussels that also brought money into the country.
That kicked started the celtic tiger.

PS building houses from 2002 onwards first castrated it, then skinned before finally making us all pay for it's burial.

nesf

jmayo wrote: »

But at the individual level there are far more crippling debt.
40 year mortgages where repayments are based on two salaries.

Indeed, however; this is a fundamentally different problem to that of the 80s which was public rather than private debt. I'm not arguing that we don't have problems right now, only that they're different to those faced in the 80s.

Salvelinus

jmayo wrote: »

But at the individual level there are far more crippling debt.
40 year mortgages where repayments are based on two salaries.



Well haughey's government, with McSharry at the helm of finance, got it's act together in 1987 backed by Dukes and the Tallaght strategy.
Social partnership helped and we were lucky in that we managed to attract in Microsoft, Intel and Dell world leaders in their respective areas.
Of course the cheap corporation tax, access to EU markets and cheap educated workforce helped in no small measure.
Also in late 80s-early 90s Reynolds' government managed to swing big cash injection from Brussels that also brought money into the country.
That kicked started the celtic tiger.

PS building houses from 2002 onwards first castrated it, then skinned before finally making us all pay for it's burial.

too much too soon?

jmayo

nesf wrote: »

Indeed, however; this is a fundamentally different problem to that of the 80s which was public rather than private debt. I'm not arguing that we don't have problems right now, only that they're different to those faced in the 80s.

Give it a chance, our public debt is rocketing up what with the huge public spending deficit and that doesn't even bring into the consideration we are buying a lot of worthless property.

My point is that for a lot of individuals the future looks a lot bleaker today than in 1982.
In 1982 an average late twenty something college educated recently unemployed person probably hadn't a huge 35 odd year mortgage hanging around their neck and they had somewhere to emigrate to.
Today emigration options are more limited and what do you do with the negative equity strewn shoebox apartment that you own in a commuter town ?

Salvelinus wrote: »

too much too soon?

Do not start blaming EU for our problems.
But for them we would have f*** all altoghether.
Not alone is a lot of our infrastructure due to some of their money but also they dragged us socially into the last century.
Most of the employment equality and anti discimination laws are due to them.

Also it is not their fault we wasted structural funds unlike some other EU countries who have pushed through huge amount of infrastructure in less time and at less cost than ourselves.

Salvelinus

jmayo wrote: »

Give it a chance, our public debt is rocketing up what with the huge public spending deficit and that doesn't even bring into the consideration we are buying a lot of worthless property.

My point is that for a lot of individuals the future looks a lot bleaker today than in 1982.
In 1982 an average late twenty something college educated recently unemployed person probably hadn't a huge 35 odd year mortgage hanging around their neck and they had somewhere to emigrate to.
Today emigration options are more limited and what do you do with the negative equity strewn shoebox apartment that you own in a commuter town ?



Do not start blaming EU for our problems.
But for them we would have f*** all altoghether.
Not alone is a lot of our infrastructure due to some of their money but also they dragged us socially into the last century.
Most of the employment equality and anti discimination laws are due to them.

Also it is not their fault we wasted structural funds unlike some other EU countries who have pushed through huge amount of infrastructure in less time and at less cost than ourselves.

Seriously wasn't trying to, and I agree with your points. My point was maybe that we got we hadn't the capacity to handle it and plan ahead.

jmayo

Salvelinus wrote: »

Seriously wasn't trying to, and I agree with your points. My point was maybe that we got we hadn't the capacity to handle it and plan ahead.

Sorry about that but there are some spanners about who blame the EU/ECB for cheap interest rates and the fact that credit was easy.
Of course it is always someone elses fault :rolleyes:

You mention one word i.e. Plan that is not used in Irish version of the Enlgish language.

Have you ever taken a look at how cockeyed our planning is ?
M50 is good example.

nesf

jmayo wrote: »

Give it a chance, our public debt is rocketing up what with the huge public spending deficit and that doesn't even bring into the consideration we are buying a lot of worthless property.

My point is that for a lot of individuals the future looks a lot bleaker today than in 1982.
In 1982 an average late twenty something college educated recently unemployed person probably hadn't a huge 35 odd year mortgage hanging around their neck and they had somewhere to emigrate to.
Today emigration options are more limited and what do you do with the negative equity strewn shoebox apartment that you own in a commuter town ?

Issues definitely lie in the future, individually the future may look bleaker but I'm unsure whether it's bleaker for the country as a whole or not.

Mainly I'm just arguing that people need to be extremely cautious with drawing parallels with the 80s and making any argument based on what happened then happening now.

AlekSmart

In 1982 an average late twenty something college educated recently unemployed person probably hadn't a huge 35 odd year mortgage hanging around their neck and they had somewhere to emigrate to.

Probably the biggest single contributory factor to depressing what should be the most productive elements in the country....this huge weight on individual shoulders..voluntarily taken on by a generation which bought in wholesale to the Liam Lawlor era....... :mad:

I`m not certain that the Government adequately recognize just how few people will be able to remain productive in Éire Nua.
For sure there appears very little in any of the ramblings of the two Brian`s that recognises the need to keep people of vision and vibrancy in this country.....NAMA and it`s dodgy looking premise sure would`nt make me want to cling to the ould sod for too long !!!

jmayo

nesf wrote: »

Issues definitely lie in the future, individually the future may look bleaker but I'm unsure whether it's bleaker for the country as a whole or not.

Mainly I'm just arguing that people need to be extremely cautious with drawing parallels with the 80s and making any argument based on what happened then happening now.

The country no longer has the attractiveness for FDI it did in the 80s.
IMHO we will never create an enterprise complex like other countries.
And I don't mean the US in this but the likes of Finland.
Even here in the dot com boom of the late 90s, the primary aim of most people who did create enterprises was to sell them on and not take them further.

AlekSmart wrote: »

Probably the biggest single contributory factor to depressing what should be the most productive elements in the country....this huge weight on individual shoulders..voluntarily taken on by a generation which bought in wholesale to the Liam Lawlor era....... :mad:
...

And not alone will these huge mortgages be a huge drain on individuals, even if they have good productive jobs, but the negative equity tying to the properties prevent the owners from easily moving.

ardmacha

The country no longer has the attractiveness for FDI it did in the 80s.

Costs have risen since the 1980's and other competitor countries exist in Eastern Europe. But Ireland in the 1980's was a hard sell as an FDI location, since then it has become the constant competitor for FDI and the default location. If costs can be kept under control then we can get our share.

IMHO we will never create an enterprise complex like other countries.
And I don't mean the US in this but the likes of Finland.
Even here in the dot com boom of the late 90s, the primary aim of most people who did create enterprises was to sell them on and not take them further.

More needs to be done, but there are more people interested in enterprise. Selling out may well the wise thing to do and may well lead to more business activity and employment in Ireland as a consequence.

EastWallGirl

AlekSmart wrote: »

Probably the biggest single contributory factor to depressing what should be the most productive elements in the country....this huge weight on individual shoulders..voluntarily taken on by a generation which bought in wholesale to the Liam Lawlor era....... :mad:

I`m not certain that the Government adequately recognize just how few people will be able to remain productive in Éire Nua.
For sure there appears very little in any of the ramblings of the two Brian`s that recognises the need to keep people of vision and vibrancy in this country.....NAMA and it`s dodgy looking premise sure would`nt make me want to cling to the ould sod for too long !!!

This is one of the main reasons that if there is any revaluation done, it should perhaps include domestic mortgages. NAMA will not 'lift all boats' as the saying goes. I think if the banks were forced as part of NAMA to revalue every house mortgage with say a 30% reduction on the mortgage patments, it will relieve some of the pressure of wage earners, it will allow for house holds to cope better with 1 income, there will be extra money either to save, go back to school start a business.

Obviously I have not thought out the finer details, but there is a necessity to free up funds at all levels, not at the elite.

One poster made a comment that there is nowhere to emmigrate to. I do not quite agree with that. Those with partners from Australia, Canada, US who will have a toe hold in the other country may take their chances.

There are also opportunties still in the Middle East and Asia.

Dob74

This is way worse than the 80's.
it was easy to get a job back than. All you had to do is go to the UK or the states.
The returning immigrants pumped alot of money into the economy. Now that well has dried up.
We have massive individual debt which will take years to pay back.

Considering all the Banks in the country need the state to prop them up. In the 80's only one went to the wall and had to be bailed out.
This in definately worse and we havent seen the worst of it yet.

irish_bob

NBB Bohs wrote: »

Actually always thought about that, how did the UK cope with so many Irish when they were in recession at the time to?

from late 1982 to the end of 1987 , the uk boomed under thatcher as did the usa under reagan in the same period , japan boomed throughout the 80,s , thier was no international rescession in the 80,s like now , ireland was pretty unique back then , our problems were our own making