The anti-consensus

dsmythy · 15-08-2009 1:51pm #1

A log of virtual bets where i look at the team(s) who everyone is backing and put up the opposite of it happening. The theory being that the bookies know what they want you to bet on, so doing the opposite may be a wise move. Like i said i'm not actually doing the bets i put up, just seeing how it would go to swim against the tide of opinion.

This weekend everyone seems to be looking at Leeds and Notts County winning because of presumed superiority. So we go against. Everyone is not fans of Portsmouth because of their presumed difficulties so they go in too.

Using the best odds on the site oddschecker.com.

Portsmouth to beat Fulham 19/10
Wycombe to beat Leeds 16/5
Macclesfield to beat Notts County 3/1

dsmythy · 15-08-2009 3:56pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Portsmouth to beat Fulham 19/10 -1
Wycombe to beat Leeds 16/5 -1
Macclesfield to beat Notts County 3/1 -1

Bets: 3
Wins: 0
Consensus 3 Anti-consensus 0
Profit/Loss: -3

mike65 · 15-08-2009 4:20pm

Ah well!

Some peeps only bet this way, figuring that when they win they win big and it happens often enough to be viable.

I imagine you'd have got a very decent price on Wigan HT/FT for example.

dsmythy · 15-08-2009 4:51pm

mike65 wrote: »

Ah well!

Some peeps only bet this way, figuring that when they win they win big and it happens often enough to be viable.

I imagine you'd have got a very decent price on Wigan HT/FT for example.

True true. Wigan were roughly 9/2 for the straight win if my memory is correct.

Anyway i'll continue to scour the forum for further consensus.

Healio · 16-08-2009 2:22am

All I'll say is stick with it, and in 6 months time review it, and see hows its going.

Best of luck!!

Chucky the tree · 16-08-2009 2:38am

No statsitical proof or anything but I'd guess a lay the favourite approach would be more successful.

8-10 · 16-08-2009 6:05am

Chucky the tree wrote: »

No statsitical proof or anything but I'd guess a lay the favourite approach would be more successful.

Agreed, it'd make more sense I reckon.

You say "This weekend everyone seems to be looking at Leeds and Notts County winning because of presumed superiority. So we go against."

To go against the bet and win there's 2 outcomes, Leeds drawing or Leeds losing. Both are anti the consensus which as you say is a Leeds win, although you've only backed one outcome. So you either want to lay Leeds or back a Wycome/Draw.

dsmythy · 16-08-2009 12:07pm

Chucky the tree wrote: »

No statsitical proof or anything but I'd guess a lay the favourite approach would be more successful.

8-10 wrote: »

Agreed, it'd make more sense I reckon.

You say "This weekend everyone seems to be looking at Leeds and Notts County winning because of presumed superiority. So we go against."

To go against the bet and win there's 2 outcomes, Leeds drawing or Leeds losing. Both are anti the consensus which as you say is a Leeds win, although you've only backed one outcome. So you either want to lay Leeds or back a Wycome/Draw.

Perhaps i'll go with laying instead. All virtual of course.

dsmythy · 18-08-2009 1:00pm

Lots of buzz for Wigan this midweek so the anti-consensus shall lay them. 1 unit bet by an imaginary backer on the current Betfair lay odds at time of writing of 1.74. So our liability is 0.74

funnyname · 19-08-2009 12:42am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lots of buzz for Wigan this midweek so the anti-consensus shall lay them. 1 unit bet by an imaginary backer on the current Betfair lay odds at time of writing of 1.74. So our liability is 0.74

high 5

dsmythy · 19-08-2009 1:21am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lots of buzz for Wigan this midweek so the anti-consensus shall lay them. 1 unit bet by an imaginary backer on the current Betfair lay odds at time of writing of 1.74. So our liability is 0.74

Winner! We win 1 unit.

Bets: 4
Wins: 1
Consensus 3 Anti-consensus 1
Profit/Loss: -2

dsmythy · 19-08-2009 12:16pm

Following their win against Reading people seem to be digging Newcastle. We lay them at 1.81 to a 1 unit bet.

EDIT: Going to add Notts County in too because they are in quite a few picks. Lay price 2.38.

dsmythy · 19-08-2009 8:48pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Following their win against Reading people seem to be digging Newcastle. We lay them at 1.81 to a 1 unit bet.

EDIT: Going to add Notts County in too because they are in quite a few picks. Lay price 2.38.

Newcastle lay -0.81
Notts County lay +1

Bets: 6
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -1.81

Gillington · 19-08-2009 10:25pm

City woulda been good at 5/1 away to Barca!

mike65 · 19-08-2009 11:21pm

Not too mention Burnley tonight

Or would that not really match the criteria?

Chucky the tree · 19-08-2009 11:45pm

Typical, all the odds on favourites in the championship last night lost or drew last night.

dsmythy · 20-08-2009 12:00am

mike65 wrote: »

Not too mention Burnley tonight Or would that not really match the criteria?

Well there's no strict criteria i'm just taking an instinctive look at what i think is a match where posters seem near all in agreement that it is to be backed a certain way. Think i'd end up spending the time laying the obvious big Prem teams if i didn't make it harder for them to be considered a consensus.

dsmythy · 20-08-2009 2:12pm

Everyone likes Fulham tonight in the Europa League.

Lay Fulham 1.46

dsmythy · 20-08-2009 9:47pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Everyone likes Fulham tonight in the Europa League.

Lay Fulham 1.46

We lose 0.46

Bets: 7
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -2.27

dsmythy · 22-08-2009 12:38pm

Man City and Arsenal appear to be the buzz teams this weekend. Arsenal on the handicap.

Lay Man City 1.42
Lay Arsenal -2 (AH) 2.09

Arsenal possible results:

Win by 3 or more: -1.09
Win by 2: push
Do not win by 2 or more +1

dsmythy · 24-08-2009 9:07pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Man City and Arsenal appear to be the buzz teams this weekend. Arsenal on the handicap.

Lay Man City 1.42
Lay Arsenal -2 (AH) 2.09

Arsenal possible results:

Win by 3 or more: -1.09
Win by 2: push
Do not win by 2 or more +1

We lose both (-2.09)

Bets: 9
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -4.36

8-10 · 24-08-2009 9:41pm

Where was the bet on Villa? Nobody was giving them a hope earlier.

dsmythy · 24-08-2009 10:15pm

8-10 wrote: »

Where was the bet on Villa? Nobody was giving them a hope earlier.

Ah wasn't on earlier. Would of went in otherwise.

dsmythy · 31-08-2009 7:12pm

Everyone likes Barcelona, for obvious reasons admittedly. But we must lay them for small liability. 1.17 the current price.

dsmythy · 01-09-2009 2:37pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Everyone likes Barcelona, for obvious reasons admittedly. But we must lay them for small liability. 1.17 the current price.

We lose 0.17

Bets: 10
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -4.53

The forum must be doing pretty well at the moment

dsmythy · 03-09-2009 6:55pm

Lay Poland at 1.61

dsmythy · 05-09-2009 9:26pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Poland at 1.61

Win 1

Bets: 11
Wins: 3
Profit/Loss: -3.53

dsmythy · 12-09-2009 1:26pm

Lay Bordeaux at 1.3

dsmythy · 13-09-2009 11:17am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Bordeaux at 1.3

Lose 0.3

Bets: 12
Wins: 3
Profit/Loss: -3.83

dsmythy · 17-09-2009 1:31pm

Lay Ajax v Timisoara @ 1.32

dsmythy · 18-09-2009 11:29am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Ajax v Timisoara @ 1.32

Win 1.

Bets: 13
Wins: 4
Profit/Loss: -2.83

TomD101 · 18-09-2009 1:15pm

anti - consensus is also know as contrarian. It is a well known fund management style used by some equity investment mandates.

dsmythy · 19-09-2009 1:13pm

Lay Exeter v Tranmere @ 2.14

dsmythy · 20-09-2009 11:58am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Exeter v Tranmere @ 2.14

Lose 1.14

Bets: 14
Wins: 4
Profit/Loss: -3.97

dsmythy · 26-09-2009 11:45am

Lay Everton @ 2.1 v Portsmouth

dsmythy · 28-09-2009 1:40pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Everton @ 2.1 v Portsmouth

Lose 1.1

Bets: 15
Wins: 4
Profit/Loss: -5.07

funnyname · 29-09-2009 8:28pm

Would have done very well tonight

Liverpool
WBA
P'boro
PNE

dsmythy · 30-09-2009 12:51pm

funnyname wrote: »

Would have done very well tonight

Liverpool
WBA
P'boro
PNE

Yeah i keep missing out on some gems through not having the time to look at what people are backing.

funnyname · 30-09-2009 2:50pm

here's a good place for finding out which games to go against, it's usually the away team with a prediction of 10.

http://www.soccervista.com/bet.php?sh=-1

7 out of 8 last night

dsmythy · 30-09-2009 6:41pm

Everyone is backing the bigger favourites at home this midweek in the Champions League so we shall go after them.

Lay Milan 1.3
Lay Bordeaux 1.31
Lay Man Utd 1.34
Lay Real Madrid 1.34

dsmythy · 01-10-2009 12:30am

dsmythy wrote: »

Everyone is backing the bigger favourites at home this midweek in the Champions League so we shall go after them.

Lay Milan 1.3
Lay Bordeaux 1.31
Lay Man Utd 1.34
Lay Real Madrid 1.34

+1
-0.31
-0.34
-0.34

Bets: 19
Wins: 5
Profit/Loss: -5.06

dsmythy · 01-10-2009 12:33am

Lay Everton @ 1.73 v BATE

dsmythy · 02-10-2009 9:37am

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Everton @ 1.73 v BATE

Lose 0.73

Bets: 20
Wins: 5
Profit/Loss: -5.79

dsmythy · 03-10-2009 11:55am

Lay Wigan @ 2.5 v Hull

dsmythy · 04-10-2009 12:58pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Lay Wigan @ 2.5 v Hull

Win 1

Bets: 21
Wins: 6
Profit/Loss: -4.79

The anti-consensus

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