Do you think Lisbon will pass?

ChocolateSauce

I haven't seen a poll on this one yet...you may want the treaty to go one way, but what way do you think it will go?

Personally, I'm undecided.

Edit: Ah, missed the poll option. Mods help please?

ei.sdraob

im being pessimistic



ive no faith in the Irish people after the events of last 2 years

people will again fall for lies and vote on issues that have nothing to do with Lisbon Treaty

instead of taking time from their busy lifes to find out the issues and the points

sorry but thats my honest opinion

despite that I will do my best to explain the benefits of Lisbon to everyone i know and of course will continue participating in the interesting debates we have here on boards

why would i continue doing so?

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."

(Edmund Burke)

Dinner

I'm being pessimistic too.

I think enough people will take the "dek took er democracy" view point.
Then you've got the people who will look at the ballot paper and will read the question as "Are FF doing a good job".


I really hope it does pass though and will readily bet anyone one of my legs that if it does pass, nothing bad will happen.

BlitzKrieg

I am quite pessimistic, the unpopularity of the government is what will kill lisbon, not lies (though they will help) or a good *no* campaign.

Really for the yes campaign to win, Labour and Fine Gael have to come out strong and Fianna fail simply has to f*ck off and not get involved.

For a no campaign to easily win, Sinn Fein shouldnt puish too hard, only on their supporters to go out and vote and Fianna Fail should be let go mad on the town trying to drum up support. If labour and Fine Gael give the timmid support they gave last time it wont be enough.

The focus just needs to stay on fianna fail for the no side to win.


If the debates continue to focus on the assurances then facts wont be an issue and it will simply about the current government.

Who are a bunch of asshats.

Actually I am gonna go email my local TD and ask him not to stick his face on anything lisbon related.

FutureTaoiseach

No I don't, but complacency is not an option in my book. I think one thing the no side have going for us is the complete distrust of politics in this country after 11 years of Tribunals. Everyone is assumed to have a vested interest in adopting a policy position. What makes it all the more suspicious, in my opinion, is the spectacle of 95% of our TDs and Senators being on the one side, in sharp contrast to normal politics in this country on domestic issues like the economy and the health-service. The conclusion voters like me draw when that happens is that there must be something in it for them. No doubt some are motivated by idealism and principle. But others are probably motivated by patronage, careerism and money. When you hear persons being floated in the press as candidates for positions created in Lisbon, like the non-rotational President of the European Council, it feeds into that cynicism.

Macha

So what you're basically saying, FutureTaoiseach, is that you're happy you have an irrational belief that the vast majority of politicians are evil on your side? Rather than the facts?

FutureTaoiseach

taconnol wrote: »

So what you're basically saying, FutureTaoiseach, is that you're happy you have an irrational belief that the vast majority of politicians are evil on your side? Rather than the facts?

On it's own it wouldn't cause me to vote no. I'm voting no because I think the Treaty goes far in an integrationist direction. I wouldn't go as far as to clal most politicians "evil" - they are just wrong imho. But they are human beings, and therefore subject to temptation. Thank God for the Constitution then such that we can hold them in check.

Rej

I voted no last time.

This time, im not even sure ill bother to vote to be honest.

Macha

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

On it's own it wouldn't cause me to vote no. I'm voting no because I think the Treaty goes far in an integrationist direction. I wouldn't go as far as to clal most politicians "evil" - they are just wrong imho. But they are human beings, and therefore subject to temptation. Thank God for the Constitution then such that we can hold them in check.

Um..the Constitution makes the EU more democratic and accountable. That makes it easier for them to be kept in check.

Also, the current Irish Constitution is in serious need of revision (but I'll leave that for another thread )

FutureTaoiseach

taconnol wrote: »

Um..the Constitution makes the EU more democratic and accountable. That makes it easier for them to be kept in check.

Also, the current Irish Constitution is in serious need of revision (but I'll leave that for another thread )

You mean Lisbon? I disagree. The Citizens Initiative and advisory powers for the national parliaments are just window-dressing. They are non-binding and intended to provide a veneer of localism to mask the increased centralisation of policy in the hands of the Council of Ministers via expanded QMV.

humanji

I've a feeling that the result will be much the same but with much less than half the electorate turning out and a fairly tight result given to the No's.

FutureTaoiseach

Can we have a poll on this question?

tolosenc

I'm fearful that it will fail again, though I stop short of reading anything into a boards poll on the matter. I'll be flying in from France to vote, and should it fail, I can tell you I'll be in no rush to return ever after that.

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

What makes it all the more suspicious, in my opinion, is the spectacle of 95% of our TDs and Senators being on the one side, in sharp contrast to normal politics in this country on domestic issues like the economy and the health-service. The conclusion voters like me draw when that happens is that there must be something in it for them.

What an extrordinarily paranoid outlook on things.

tonycascarino

No I honestly don't think it will pass but it might be tighter than the last time.

FutureTaoiseach

The green-shoots in the economy (industrial output up 9.3%) will not help scare the Irish people into voting yes:

Eurozone industrial output fell back in June, wiping out gains made in May and dampening expectations of a recovery in the region, official figures show.

Output fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month, and by 3% between April and June. The first three months of the year saw a fall of 7.5%.

Output fell most in Denmark and Italy, but the Irish Republic saw a big rise.

sink

I'm pretty sure it's going to be a no again. Out of the people I know personally, not one has changed from a no to a yes, but I know several that have changed from a yes to a no. Most will cite their hatred of the government and are pinning their hopes on a no vote damaging the government enough to make it collapse. Most don't even care what's in the treaty or how a no vote will be perceived outside of Ireland, 'Our vote our choice and two fingers to the rest of ya'.

K-9

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

The green-shoots in the economy (industrial output up 9.3%) will not help scare the Irish people into voting yes:

Europe is doing ok considering. There are signs of a pick up. I'll get more up to date stats, not ones picked to suit your point of view.

You do realise the same Multi Nationals who want a Yes vote are responsible for our rise?

On topic, I agree with Sink. It is sad to see spin over substance but that is the way of politics now.

FutureTaoiseach

K-9 wrote: »

Europe is doing ok considering. There are signs of a pick up. I'll get more up to date stats, not ones picked to suit your point of view.

You do realise the same Multi Nationals who want a Yes vote are responsible for our rise?

On topic, I agree with Sink. It is sad to see spin over substance but that is the way of politics now.

I only hear Irish figures in these multinationals calling for a yes vote, and they never cite specific elements of the Treaty. Instead, they focus on the generalities of EU membership, such as the importance of trade, as if somehow this would stop on October 3rd after a no vote. You have to wonder why they are supporting Lisbon, and how much of it reflects personal political opinion as opposed to the views of the company's American bosses. Is patronage in Brussels a factor?

K-9

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

I only hear Irish figures in these multinationals calling for a yes vote, and they never cite specific elements of the Treaty. Instead, they focus on the generalities of EU membership, such as the importance of trade, as if somehow this would stop on October 3rd after a no vote. You have to wonder why they are supporting Lisbon, and how much of it reflects personal political opinion as opposed to the views of the company's American bosses. Is patronage in Brussels a factor?

Hmmm, I doubt they are out of sync with their American bosses. You're entitled to that opinion of course but the American Chamber of Commerce here disagrees with it.

Why our exports rose:
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017363.shtml

China not doing great:
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017368.shtml

Bank of England not that upbeat on GB:
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017385.shtml

Europe doing ok:
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017386.shtml

US not doing great:
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017387.shtml

P. Breathnach

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

I only hear Irish figures in these multinationals calling for a yes vote, and they never cite specific elements of the Treaty. Instead, they focus on the generalities of EU membership, such as the importance of trade, as if somehow this would stop on October 3rd after a no vote. You have to wonder why they are supporting Lisbon, and how much of it reflects personal political opinion as opposed to the views of the company's American bosses. Is patronage in Brussels a factor?

Why not take it at face value: that they are for Lisbon because they believe it is a good thing for the companies they represent and thus for themselves also?

Impugning their motives is a dishonourable tactic.

I'm beginning to understand your concern about human rights: you want to be free to deny people the right to their good name if it suits your purpose to suggest that they are corrupt.

Scofflaw

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

I only hear Irish figures in these multinationals calling for a yes vote, and they never cite specific elements of the Treaty. Instead, they focus on the generalities of EU membership, such as the importance of trade, as if somehow this would stop on October 3rd after a no vote. You have to wonder why they are supporting Lisbon, and how much of it reflects personal political opinion as opposed to the views of the company's American bosses. Is patronage in Brussels a factor?

I have to wonder if you've really thought that aspersion through - if Brussels patronage were an important deciding factor in the thinking of the bosses of US multi-nationals, then their message to vote Yes would become more rather than less weighty.

cordially,
Scofflaw

marco_polo

Then And now

Opinion polls ahead of 2 October 2009 referendum:

Date For Against Don't know
1 June 54% 28% 18%

18 May 52% 29% 19%

16 February 51% 33% 16%

Opinion polls ahead of 12 June 2008 referendum:

Date For Against Don't know
6 June 30% 35% 35%

17 May 35% 18% 47%

26 January 26% 10% 64%

52.5% of voters rejected the Lisbon treaty on 12 June 2008

http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/irish-voters-tilt-towards-a-%E2%80%98yes%E2%80%99-for-the-lisbon-treaty/65632.aspx

I must say it doesn't feel like those recent 2-1 Yes figures are accurate (I am not questioning the poll, just my perception from chatting to random people) and there is of course preceedent for a massive swing in no support as the date gets nearer.

A notible factor may be that there seems to be a much smaller pool of undecided voters.

Red Sleeping Beauty

ChocolateSauce wrote: »

I haven't seen a poll on this one yet...you may want the treaty to go one way, but what way do you think it will go?

Personally, I'm undecided.

Edit: Ah, missed the poll option. Mods help please?

I think there's a fair chance it'll pass. All main parties are on board and someone's still voting for them. The media's on board as well and the 50/50 rule's been switched off apparently.

If you take the local elections results as a guide marker, you could stagger a guess that there may be support for a no vote from certain sections in Dublin. On the MEP elections I think it's only Higgins who openly opposes Lisbon.

K-9 wrote: »

Europe is doing ok considering. There are signs of a pick up. I'll get more up to date stats, not ones picked to suit your point of view.

You do realise the same Multi Nationals who want a Yes vote are responsible for our rise?

On topic, I agree with Sink. It is sad to see spin over substance but that is the way of politics now.

I think it's sad that the Lisbon Treaty has turned into a referendum on Ireland's member status within the EU but ye know.

Martin 2

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

I only hear Irish figures in these multinationals calling for a yes vote, and they never cite specific elements of the Treaty. Instead, they focus on the generalities of EU membership, such as the importance of trade, as if somehow this would stop on October 3rd after a no vote. You have to wonder why they are supporting Lisbon, and how much of it reflects personal political opinion as opposed to the views of the company's American bosses. Is patronage in Brussels a factor?

FT, I’m sure you have heard of Occam’s razor, ie., if you have 2 explanations for the same outcome, then the simplest one is probably the correct one and in this case the simplest explanation for multinationals supporting a YES vote is because it’s in the best interests of their companies and employees.

Imagine you’re the MD of the Irish operation of a major multinational and you are visiting the US boardroom to look for further investment (for continued operation), which would you prefer to have in your back pocket a Yes or a No? remember also that we’ll be competing with other countries who will have no qualms about using our No against us.


If the MNC’s are advocating a Yes vote, then we should listen, not for the sake of a small number of executives but for a very large number of employees. I live in a town where 2 multinationals employ nearly 9000 people, I think it’s risky to assume a final No vote will have no effect, a yes vote can only help maintain employment.
.

ixtlan

I cannot really say which way it will go.

I am somewhat pessimistic. I see no indication that people are taking a more active interest.

Last week on the radio I heard a man say he was voting against Lisbon because the EBS had raised interest rates. Nothing to do with Lisbon he was told. His reply... I don't care... that's what "they" will get for raising the rates on him...

With all due respect to democracy, it is people like this who are making a mockery of it in Ireland.

I must add that I feel, and I'm sure some would debate this, that people who vote yes because they figure the politicans know best, are behaving reasonably. If they don't have the time to study the treaty, then the logical thing to do is vote yes. If you want to vote no, against the wishes of almost all the political leadership in the country then you need to have a good reason, directly related to the treaty. And you need to work on making sure you explain this clearly to your elected representatives.

That might seem harsh imposing more responsibity on no voters, but it really should be this way. Unfortunately in reality the reverse is the case. Many many people are voting no to protest things which have nothing to do with the treaty, which is crazy and is doing terrible damage to the concept of democracy. People should be asked whether they would vote no to the future referendum on children's rights to protest about whatever they are protesting about.


Ix.

djpbarry

ei.sdraob wrote: »

ive no faith in the Irish people after the events of last 2 years

I must admit I lost a good deal of faith in democracy when Fianna Fáil were re-elected in 2007 and then the Lisbon Treaty was rejected on the basis of lies and misinformation.

However, a little of that faith was restored when Libertas failed to win a seat in the Euro’s. Also worth pointing out that almost all of our newly-elected MEP’s are pro-Lisbon.

K-9 wrote: »

Europe is doing ok considering. There are signs of a pick up. I'll get more up to date stats, not ones picked to suit your point of view.

There are indeed; both Germany and France experienced economic growth last quarter.

-=Shamrock=-

Im voting against.

Then again im opposed to more non-economic integration.
I dont see how all the states in the EU will benefit by coupling things such as foreign policy.

ei.sdraob

-=Shamrock=- wrote: »

Im voting against.

Then again im opposed to more non-economic integration.
I dont see how all the states in the EU will benefit by coupling things such as foreign policy.

A typical no voter i see :cool:


the thread title is "Do you think Lisbon will pass?"

not "How will you vote?"


then again reading comprehension and logical thinking seem to be sadly absent from some people
:mad:

-=Shamrock=-

ei.sdraob wrote: »

A typical no voter i see :cool:


the thread title is "Do you think Lisbon will pass?"

not "How will you vote?"


then again reading comprehension and logical thinking seem to be sadly absent from some people
:mad:

My reading comprehension is fine.

What is the answer to the question if Lisbon will pass? Thats right! If more people vote for it than against it!! Good boy! How do you find out before the actual vote takes place? *drum roll* a survey of what individuals think!

You need to relax and concentrate on your own "issues" instead of pointing the finger at others criticizing them.

Daftendirekt

I have no idea, but the general debate on this forum doesn't make me optimistic.

That said, with the guarantees in place, the arguments against have become more transparently weak, and I'd expect at least a percentage of former No voters to change their stance. Whether this will be a significant percentage or not remains to be seen.

The Commission issue is a little bit jarring for me. While the retention of the bloated Commission might be a saving grace of Lisbon 2, it actually seems like a slightly worse deal to me because of this. I guess if it makes the No voters comfortable knowing there'll always be a Commissioner from Ireland in place, it's a small compromise.

One thing that depresses me though: whether Lisbon passes or fails, I don't think it'll be on the basis of the treaty itself. I think it'll either be passed by people who think that another No will ruin what's left our economy, or rejected by people who think holding referenda is somehow undemocratic.

It'll be interesting either way though.

ei.sdraob

-=Shamrock=- wrote: »

My reading comprehension is fine.

What is the answer to the question if Lisbon will pass? Thats right! If more people vote for it than against it!! Good boy! How do you find out before the actual vote takes place? *drum roll* a survey of what individuals think!

You need to relax and concentrate on your own "issues" instead of pointing the finger at others criticizing them.

what issues would that be?

if you take your blinkers off you would have noticed this thread titled (dum dum dum) Lisbon vote October 2nd - How do you intend to vote?

Martin 2

Daftendirekt wrote: »

The Commission issue is a little bit jarring for me. While the retention of the bloated Commission might be a saving grace of Lisbon 2, it actually seems like a slightly worse deal to me because of this. I guess if it makes the No voters comfortable knowing there'll always be a Commissioner from Ireland in place, it's a small compromise.

One thing that depresses me though: whether Lisbon passes or fails, I don't think it'll be on the basis of the treaty itself. I think it'll either be passed by people who think that another No will ruin what's left our economy, or rejected by people who think holding referenda is somehow undemocratic.

It'll be interesting either way though.

It's not just No voters who take comfort in knowing there will always be a commissioner from Ireland, I've always been a yes supporter and I see this as the main achievement of the first referendum. I think a lot of the smaller EU countries will thank Ireland for this. However, with the commissioner retained, the guarantees obtained and the economy in crisis, it's time for a Yes vote.

Btw, I was agnostic towards the contents of the treaty during the last referendum, however after watching the debates on boards over the last 6 weeks and considering Sink's 10 reasons for voting Yes, I now believe the contents of the treaty are sufficient reasons on their own to vote yes.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Martin 2 wrote: »

I think a lot of the smaller EU countries will thank Ireland for this.

Why smaller countries? The proposed system gave exactly the same amount of time to every country.

I think this is a big loss from L1.

Martin 2

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Why smaller countries? The proposed system gave exactly the same amount of time to every country.

I think this is a big loss from L1.

Maybe it's just perception, if you're a large country you feel you have clout because of the size of your economy or the number of MEP's you have, if you're a small country you don't have that but having a permanent commissioner is a compensation even thought commissioners are not supposed to represent the interests of their countries of origin

djpbarry

Daftendirekt wrote: »

The Commission issue is a little bit jarring for me. While the retention of the bloated Commission might be a saving grace of Lisbon 2, it actually seems like a slightly worse deal to me because of this.

At a time when people in this country are calling for the cost of the public sector to be slashed, it does seem odd that those same people are adamant that the bloated EU commission be retained.

Red Sleeping Beauty

Daftendirekt wrote: »

I have no idea, but the general debate on this forum doesn't make me optimistic.

That said, with the guarantees in place, the arguments against have become more transparently weak, and I'd expect at least a percentage of former No voters to change their stance. Whether this will be a significant percentage or not remains to be seen.

The Commission issue is a little bit jarring for me. While the retention of the bloated Commission might be a saving grace of Lisbon 2, it actually seems like a slightly worse deal to me because of this. I guess if it makes the No voters comfortable knowing there'll always be a Commissioner from Ireland in place, it's a small compromise.

One thing that depresses me though: whether Lisbon passes or fails, I don't think it'll be on the basis of the treaty itself. I think it'll either be passed by people who think that another No will ruin what's left our economy, or rejected by people who think holding referenda is somehow undemocratic.

It'll be interesting either way though.

The guarantees aren't legally binding unless (or until) they're anexed on to the next passed treaty .

I think you're right that the next referendum won't be voted on based on the issues. Neither side did itself any favours last time and this time the main proponents of a "Yes" vote are wheeling out the usual baseless twaddle about making Ireland stronger in Europe, we're in dire trouble if the treaty's rejected, we'll be kicked out of the EU , the EU will move on witout us etc.
None of which has anything to do with the treaty. Similarily the adoption and conscription angle from the "No" side was off the wall.

I wouldn't be too sure about it being rejected solely on the "undemocratic" arguement though. It really depends on what the politicians say and what the media reports when the crazyness returns to Kildare St. All the main players are involved and are backing the treaty but if FF come across as overly autocratic and start telling people they need to vote Yes for the greater good then that could do more harm than "good". It's also worth noting that Ganley and Libertas are out of the picture now it would seem.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Alan Rouge wrote: »

The guarantees aren't legally binding unless (or until) they're anexed on to the next passed treaty .

They'll be as binding as the Belfast Agreement before they are annexed, for what it's worth.

K-9

Alan Rouge wrote: »

It's also worth noting that Ganley and Libertas are out of the picture now it would seem.

It's good to see that the vast majority of No voters see this as a good thing too.

Red Sleeping Beauty

I didn't vote last time based on anything Ganley said. He became too big an issue in the aftermath and he did indeed sully the "No" side.

Scofflaw

Martin 2 wrote: »

Maybe it's just perception, if you're a large country you feel you have clout because of the size of your economy or the number of MEP's you have, if you're a small country you don't have that but having a permanent commissioner is a compensation even thought commissioners are not supposed to represent the interests of their countries of origin

I don't regard it as an open and shut case that a smaller Commission is automatically preferable. I think there's a reasonable argument that while the Commission is thinking for Europe rather than for the individual member states, it's advantageous that one of the Commissioners has direct experience of Ireland.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

ei.sdraob wrote: »

what issues would that be?

if you take your blinkers off you would have noticed this thread titled (dum dum dum) Lisbon vote October 2nd - How do you intend to vote?

Enough with the handbags already.

moderately,
Scofflaw

P. Breathnach

Alan Rouge wrote: »

... this time the main proponents of a "Yes" vote are wheeling out the usual baseless twaddle about making Ireland stronger in Europe, we're in dire trouble if the treaty's rejected, we'll be kicked out of the EU , the EU will move on witout us etc...

Really? Show me.

djpbarry

Alan Rouge wrote: »

...this time the main proponents of a "Yes" vote are wheeling out the usual baseless twaddle about making Ireland stronger in Europe, we're in dire trouble if the treaty's rejected, we'll be kicked out of the EU , the EU will move on witout us etc.

I don’t think that’s true, but seeing as we’re on the subject, suppose you were designing a placard for the ‘Yes’ campaign – what would it say? Regardless of whether you intend to vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, how would you sum up the pro’s of Lisbon in a short slogan?

PopeBuckfastXVI

djpbarry wrote: »

I don’t think that’s true, but seeing as we’re on the subject, suppose you were designing a placard for the ‘Yes’ campaign – what would it say? Regardless of whether you intend to vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, how would you sum up the pro’s of Lisbon in a short slogan?

Dunno, there's probably a few snappy things you can say.

- Lisbon means a more Democratic EU.
- Yes to Lisbon, No to Global Warming.
- Give Ireland and Europe a Strong Global Voice.
- Yes to Lisbon, Yes to Cheaper Cleaner Energy.
- Keep Ireland's Commissioner, vote Yes!
- Make your MEP Stronger, vote Yes!

I'm sure there's other points you can sum up in a line or two...

SkepticOne

On the "yes" side, the removal of equal air time will help somewhat, though I believe that the main "no" campaigners were never really that influential in the first place.

On the no side, anger over the NAMA developer bailout will anger people into punishing the government. If the government cared about Lisbon they would put off the NAMA legislation until after the Lisbon vote.

On balance I think Lisbon is likely to fail.

PopeBuckfastXVI

SkepticOne wrote: »

On the no side, anger over the NAMA developer bailout will anger people into punishing the government. If the government cared about Lisbon they would put off the NAMA legislation until after the Lisbon vote.

Ah yes, the 'cut off our noses to spite our faces' lobby, hopefully there won't be too many of them.

SkepticOne

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Ah yes, the 'cut off our noses to spite our faces' lobby, hopefully there won't be too many of them.

I'm not saying I admire people who vote to punish the government but we have to respect their right to do so and we have to be realistic that there will be people voting along these lines.

K-9

SkepticOne wrote: »

I'm not saying I admire people who vote to punish the government but we have to respect their right to do so and we have to be realistic that there will be people voting along these lines.

I think people are realistic enough to know it will happen, however not everybody has to respect it, especially on a Referendum that has nothing to do with the Govt.

PopeBuckfastXVI

SkepticOne wrote: »

I'm not saying I admire people who vote to punish the government but we have to respect their right to do so and we have to be realistic that there will be people voting along these lines.

Oh yes, I respect their right to do it, but I don't respect their action in doing it, if you get me. These people are there, but should probably be ignored by both campaigns, as it is counter-productive to spend time attempting to persuade or reason with the irrational.

Macha

SkepticOne wrote: »

I'm not saying I admire people who vote to punish the government but we have to respect their right to do so and we have to be realistic that there will be people voting along these lines.

By all means we should be realistic but don't ask me to respect someone whose actions make me question democracy!

SkepticOne

taconnol wrote: »

By all means we should be realistic but don't ask me to respect someone whose actions make me question democracy!

You don't have to respect the people themselves. You don't have to agree with them, but you have to respect their right to vote as they see fit. Likewise they don't have to agree with your position or respect you but they have to respect your right to vote as you see fit.