World Championships Betting

Kiptanui

Paddy Power is taking no chances on David Gillick!!!!
50/1 to win a gold medal - a fair enough price, perhapsa little tight.
9/4 to win a medal!!

These prices are in no way correlated!! A 50/1 shot should be a minimum of 6/1 for a medal.

myflipflops

I'll have some 6/1 if you're laying.

Kiptanui

Would'nt oppose an irish athlete. Merely pointing out that the price is poor!!

ecoli

Kiptanui wrote: »

Would'nt oppose an irish athlete. Merely pointing out that the price is poor!!

Looking at athletics prices over the last while and the fact is they are always pretty poor

TheRoadRunner

ecoli wrote: »

Looking at athletics prices over the last while and the fact is they are always pretty poor

except for last years interclub cross country. The odds were mad. I cleaned up quite nicely.

sleapy235

I think they are pretty fair prices. He's 50/1 for gold because thats certain to be between Wariner and Merritt, 9/4 is fair for a medal as he's in good form and is ranked in the world's top 5 this year, it wouldn't be a surprise as such. The name over the door is Paddy Power, not St Vincent de Paul

Kiptanui

Do you really believe he is a 2/5 shot to make the final? That is basically an absolute certainty?!! I don't think so! I like a bet on a number of sports and I wouldn't touch that with your money!!

28/1 to break the European record? No value there. David has made massive progress this year. To ask for a further 0.45 second this season is quite frankly far-fetched.

Consider I backed Silese Sihine to come second to Bekele in the Olympic 10000m at 6/4, I think 9/4 on Gillick for a medal is NO value!! Bekele could be backed to win his last two Golden League races at prices similar to and better than what David is to make the final in Berlin. In terms of value, no comparison.

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Gillick take a medal and he does have a chance. Its just not reflected in the prices.

sleapy235

Yes, but you must remember that its an Irish bookmakers, sopeople are more likely to bet on Gillick out of patriotic interest. Thats why they are giving special odds in the first place, but don't want to give too large a price in case he does win a medal, which is a distinct possibility, as he is the only athlete they will have to pay out on in such a market. I'm sure you wopuld get much better odds from foreign bookmakers if they took bets on this market.

Edit: and a 2/5 shot is by no means an absolute certainty, I've often lost on 1/7 shots.

eon1208

Kiptanui wrote: »

Do you really believe he is a 2/5 shot to make the final? That is basically an absolute certainty?!! I don't think so! I like a bet on a number of sports and I wouldn't touch that with your money!!

28/1 to break the European record? No value there. David has made massive progress this year. To ask for a further 0.45 second this season is quite frankly far-fetched.

Consider I backed Silese Sihine to come second to Bekele in the Olympic 10000m at 6/4, I think 9/4 on Gillick for a medal is NO value!! Bekele could be backed to win his last two Golden League races at prices similar to and better than what David is to make the final in Berlin. In terms of value, no comparison.

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Gillick take a medal and he does have a chance. Its just not reflected in the prices.

Well said kiptanui, 2/5 odds on making final is ridiculously low. Sleapy ,were talking global championships here, Id say david himself would puke if he saw those odds....

eon1208

sleapy235 wrote: »

I don't think so, I'm sure it would give him a lot of confidence because its not often the bookmakers are wrong. Lets face it, while highly possible, it would be a huge disappointment if Gillick failed to make the final, he's top 5 in the world this year nad hasn't been out of the top 3 in any race, many against high class fields.

Well done to Brian Gregan on an excellent PB, 46.26 is excellent stuff for a young fella and he looks like he's shaping up for sub 46 next season, provided he stays injury free, which would be great.

Sorry Sleapy, 2/5 on for something thats highly possible is a totally unreasonable price and makes no sense whatsoever...

Kiptanui

50/1 to win Gold
3/1 fo a medal (On the drift from 9/4)
2/5 for a place in the final.

His price for a medal increased by almost 50% while no change in his odds to reach the final?
We are merely dragging this thread off topic, anyone with a comprehension of betting and prices knows there is no correlation between these prices. Its the bold PP banking on a few people betting with their heart at chronically deflated prices. :mad:

Has anone seen prices elsewhere for all events? None on Betfair yet.

Best of luck to the team!!

sleapy235

50/1 to win Gold
3/1 fo a medal (On the drift from 9/4)
2/5 for a place in the final.

His price for a medal increased by almost 50% while no change in his odds to reach the final?
We are merely dragging this thread off topic, anyone with a comprehension of betting and prices knows there is no correlation between these prices. Its the bold PP banking on a few people betting with their heart at chronically deflated prices.

Has anone seen prices elsewhere for all events? None on Betfair yet.

Best of luck to the team!!

Yes of course the prices are deflated because its a specialist market, as I said the only winner they will possibly have to pay out on is David Gillick! If they offered a fair price there is the possibility that quite a bit of money could be put on and they will lose. they are covering themselves by offering the market but not being overly generous with the prices. They know they can offer 50/1 for gold cos its not going to happen. But there is a reasonable possibilty of him sneaking bronze, as I said if you were to look for prices abroad if they were offered, you would get better prices. Its how bookies operate on relatively obscure (betting wise) sporting events. For example, I could only get 3/1 on Ken Egan winning gold before the quarter final stage last year. I took it, and luckily enough got paid out on gold, even though he didn't win (They're not completely evil people in Paddy Power see!). It wasn't a fair price, but the majority of people in Ireland betting on this market backed him out of patriotic fervour.
I'm not saying the prices are fair in an ideal world, but given the natire of the market, I think they're reasonable enough. If I was to offer prices they would be something along the lines of 4/7 to make the final and 100/30 for a medal.

thirstywork

Boylesports have odds up.4-1 gillick to medal

Id pick the mens 800m for a suprise gary reed e-w at 20-1

heffernan to win a medal 4-1 with PP good odds.

sleapy235

Gillick now out to 3/1 with Powers, guess there wasn't many takers at 9/4. This thread has gone off on a bit of a tangent with betting, I think I'll start a dedicated Berlin betting thread.

sleapy235

Given that the other Berlin thread went off on a bit of a betting tangent, I reckoned its time there was a thread dedicated to betting on Berlin, especially considering that its not often we get the chance to bet on athletics. I recognise that there's a boards gambling forum, but I can't see many outside of the athletics board having much interest in this to be honest! So any tips for Berlin to make a few bob, or anyone seen any good value bets from the various bookies offering odds on Berlin. I notice Paddy Power have odds up on all the Irish athletes to win a medal:
Gillick 3/1
Heffernan 5/1
Loughnane 9/1
Hession 66/1
McGettigan 80/1
O'Keeffe 80/1
O'Rourke 80/1
Cragg 100/1
Chamney 250/1
Carey 500/1
Costin 500/1
Griffin 500/1
Ryan 500/1
Byrne 500/1
I think Loughnane is great value at 9/1, I think she is in with a great shout of a medal in Berlin if she performs to the best of her ability.
From looking through Powers outright odds on the various bets here are my other tips:
LJ Van Zyl 6/1 for the mens 400m hurdles (been around a few years but still only 24 and still improving, 47.94 this year in beating Clement and Jackson)
Sally McLellan 7/2 for the womens 100m hurdles (in great form and has really pushed on from Beijing)
Anna Alminova 7/1 for the women's 1,500m (Much better value at Boylesports 12/1)
Usain Bolt to break 100m WR 8/13 (A certainty in my book)

Rineanna

As per Sleapy235's suggestion, the betting topic has a thread of its own as a lot of people seem to be interested in the topic and are clued into the ins-and-outs of athletics betting. I've brought the previous posts over from the Road to berlin thread.

I'm interested in placing a few bets myself, so any suggestions would be appreciated.

Rineanna.

myflipflops

Took 20/1 with Boyles on Angelo Taylor for the 400 hurdles the other day.

LaShawn Merritt was a bet @ 8/11 for the 400 flat with Bluesq but the price is gone i think.

Very few companies up so far and almost no each way being offered so the big price value is hard to find.

VR46

Ethiopian double Olympic 5000m and 10000m champion Tirunesh Dibaba’s chances of competing in the 12th IAAF World Championships in Berlin, Germany are doubtful after she aggravated a leg injury in training last week.

Defar 7/4
Quick before PP finds out:D

Also Kiprop 6/1 in the 800 is great value if he's running it??

And Choge each way in the 1500.

walshb

Has anyone posted Bolt's odds?

I see he is 1/7 on. That's pretty strong.
Gay is 9/2; good odds and maybe worth a bet!

In the 200 metres, he is 1/16 on, even stronger odds, with
Gay at 5/1

I have to say, I have awaited many WC athletic events, but none
with as much anticipation as this. IMO, it's the sporting highlight
of the year and the Bolt races, the cream of the crop.

The guy is simply so so good for the sport and sport in general, and it's
not simply because he's so good. It's his character and charisma
and playfulness and all that goes with him. He's an all around entertainer.

I cannot remember such an athlete lie him from the world of track&field!
Embrace this guy completely, his likes may not come around too often!

ecoli

Kerron Stewart a strong price 8/11

SA Fraser according to reports and her facebook (real one not fan one) confirm that she is fighting to run in Berlin after missing mandatory training camp making her ineligible to run along with Powell

dpo

Kiprop at 2/1 for the 1500m looks a fairly good bet.

The 11/10 from earlier today about Tyson Gay w/o Bolt in the 100m was the bet of the year; either that or the even money Gay w/o Bolt in the 200m. The market has been taken down now by Bluesquare.

Ismail must have a big chance in the mens 800m at 18/1.

myflipflops

dpo wrote: »

Kiprop at 2/1 for the 1500m looks a fairly good bet.

The 11/10 from earlier today about Tyson Gay w/o Bolt in the 100m was the bet of the year; either that or the even money Gay w/o Bolt in the 200m. The market has been taken down now by Bluesquare.

Ismail must have a big chance in the mens 800m at 18/1.

Where the hell did you see those Gay prices?!! That's unbelievable!

Kiprop is certainly a bet at 2/1. I like Brimun Kirputo @ 11/4 in the Steeple too.

dpo

Bluesquare had it up earlier today in the without the favourite section.
Crazy prices alright.

thirstywork

accum
kiprop 1500m 6-4 BS
sanya richards 1-7
bolt 1-10
stewart 4-6
bekele price 1-10
merrit 4-6
robles 1-6
return for 10euro = 110.20


outsiders
anna willard 1500m 20-1 e-w
adam nelson 10-1 ew shot putt
veronica campbell brown over priced at 3-1 for the 200m as i don't think felix is in shape to win(4-7)

Woddle

Well I allocated myself 30.44 euro and I went with the following
4 euro on Heffernan to win any medal 5/1
3 euro each way on LJ Van Zhy in the 400m hurdles 6/1
3.50 euro each way on Gary Reed mens 800m 20/1
3.44 euro on O Loughanane to win any medal 9/1
5 euro each way on Ismail in the mens 800m 12/1

So I would love an Ismail and Reed podium finish , as you can see I'm a huge spender but it'll keep things interesting.

Pherekydes

thirstywork wrote: »

sanya richards 1-7

...as i don't think felix is in shape to win(4-7)

Richards is very bad value with her Championships record. Felix, on the other hand, is the defending champion and ran 21.88 in Stockholm on July 31, and so is in great shape.

the_real_lamp

I backed

• Ryan Braithwaite in 110h w/o Robles at 5/1 (Boyles)
• Angelo Taylor 8/1 400h (Boyles)
• Dawn Harper 4/1 e/w (Paddy Power)
• O. Loughnane to win a medal 10/1(Boyles)
• Anna Willard 20/1 e/w (boyles)

Reaganomical

some interesting prices there.
Anna Jesien @18/1 400H
Saladino @9/4 LJ

An accumulator looks like the way to go though.

ecoli

Always do one huge accum that usually about 80% of comes off for the major championships and this one no different as comes off as a 690-1 shot which i have 5e on

Mens 100m : Outright Betting Bolt, Usain 1/10
Mens 200m : Outright Betting Bolt, Usain 1/14
Mens 400m : Outright Betting Merritt, La Shawn 4/6
Mens 110m hurdles : Outright Betting Robles, Dayron 1/6
Mens 400m Hurdles : Outright Betting Clement, Kerron 11/8
Mens Pole Vault : Outright Betting Hooker, Steven 6/4
Mens Javelin : Outright Betting Thorkildsen, Andreas 8/11
Mens 1500m : Outright Betting Kiprop, Asbel 6/4
Mens 5000m : Outright Betting Bekele, Kenenisa 1/10
Mens 10,000m : Outright Betting Bekele, Kenenisa 1/10
Womens 100m : Outright Betting Stewart, Kerron 8/11
Womens 200m : Outright Betting Felix, Allyson 4/7
Womens 3000m Steeplechase : Outright Betting Galkina, Gulnara 1/2
Womens 400m Hurdles : Outright Betting Demus, Lashinda 2/7
Womens 400m : Outright Betting Richards, Sanya 2/9
Womens 1500m : Outright Betting Jamal, My 1/2

Woddle

I tried to do accumulator but didn't know how, any chance you know how to do it through PP online

the_real_lamp

VR46 wrote: »

Defar 7/4
Quick before PP finds out:D

Also Kiprop 6/1 in the 800 is great value if he's running it??

And Choge each way in the 1500.

Paddy power can alter the odds if a favourite pulls out and change odds given out previous to a favourites withdrawal.

Peckham

Woddle wrote: »

I tried to do accumulator but didn't know how, any chance you know how to do it through PP online

Just keep adding selections to the betslip that pops up on the right hand side of the screen. It will tell you the available bets options for the number of your selections (i.e. double, treble, accumulator etc.). Enter the amount you want to bet in the accumulator box (or double/treble if you have only two/three selections), and then it will tell you your potential returns.

If you ring their customer service while doing it, they'll talk you through it (they're only too happy to take your money off you!).

DangerMouse27

i pretty much copied ecoli's accumulator apart from Campbell/Brown for 200m and Tyson Gay for 200m.
How did you get the combined odds? the woman in paddy power said 'il get them as they come in'..in other words,lets deal with it if you manage do do it
its time stamped so im away with it...just need Bolt to false start a few dozen times!

ecoli

the_real_lamp wrote: »

Paddy power can alter the odds if a favourite pulls out and change odds given out previous to a favourites withdrawal.

They can only change for placing a new bet only time a bet can be settled at prices originally taken at apart from those ones which are blatant price errors which defar is not.
Also huge variants between PP and Boyles on womens high jump so if you a fredrich fan PP way to go but If you want to back vlasic do with Boyles

ecoli

DangerMouse27 wrote: »

i pretty much copied ecoli's accumulator apart from Campbell/Brown for 200m and Tyson Gay for 200m.
How did you get the combined odds? the woman in paddy power said 'il get them as they come in'..in other words,lets deal with it if you manage do do it
its time stamped so im away with it...just need Bolt to false start a few dozen times!

i got prices on all the and the odds calculator counts potential return from there just worked it out (winnings divided by stake)

sleapy235

They can only change for placing a new bet only time a bet can be settled at prices originally taken at apart from those ones which are blatant price errors which defar is not.
Also huge variants between PP and Boyles on womens high jump so if you a fredrich fan PP way to go but If you want to back vlasic do with Boyles

They can take Rule 4 deductions from the winnings which can be quite substantial if one of the favourites pulls out. Unfortuneately Antepost rules do not apply as they would in horse racing for a race in a couplle of weeks whereby there would be no Rule 4 deductions. Its hard to win sometimes, even when you do win!
Yes, I see Vlasic is 11/10 with Boyelsports and only 4/6 with Paddy Power. Despite the fact that its in Berlin I think Blanka will do it (although I usually make the mistake of backing with my heart rather than my head!). Unfortuneately theres no Boylesports nearby and I'm not setting up a Boylesports online account when I already have a Paddy Power one, I think thats going a bit too far down the road which ends at Gamblers Anonymous!

Edit: Just seen that Galkina is 8/11 with PP for the Steeplchase, great value if you ask me! (Unless they know something I don't!)

Woddle

Just put some of my winnings from Olive on Choge in the 1500m each way at 7/1

myflipflops

Didn't want to back Ennis fo the Heptathlon because of doubts over Dobyrnska's 'credibility' but I've backed her at 110 on Betfair for BBC Sports Personality of the Year. Hopefully a star is born!!

Radcliffe won the New Yorl Half Marathon today in 69 mins and this should mean that she runs the marathon in Berlin. With Mikitenko out, I'll be keeping a very close eye on what prices become available.

myflipflops

sleapy235 wrote: »

They can take Rule 4 deductions from the winnings which can be quite substantial if one of the favourites pulls out. Unfortuneately Antepost rules do not apply as they would in horse racing for a race in a couplle of weeks whereby there would be no Rule 4 deductions.

For info sake (covered as many as i can think of off the top of my head):

Bookies with Non runner, no bet. Rule 4 may apply:

Paddy Power, William Hill


All in, run or not: Ladbrokes, Stan James, Bet365, Coral, Sportingbet (i think, not clear on rules), Totesport, VCbet, Betfair.

Both rules Quoted: Boylesports (also quote a rule where in the event of a listed non runner, they reserve the right to void the whole market and open a new one)

mrgaa1

I wonder what odds on Bolt running under 9.6 this evening - he was awesome running 9.89 in the semi's today.

mrgaa1

unbelievable - i predict something and it happened

ChickenTikka

Paddy Power's latest odds on Bolt for the 200m are 1/50!

And 10/1 on any of the other competitors to win it!

walshb

Any ideas on how to do special betting, like Bolt to break 200 record or run a certain time.
Paddy Power just have him as the winner at 1/50

ecoli

walshb wrote: »

Any ideas on how to do special betting, like Bolt to break 200 record or run a certain time.
Paddy Power just have him as the winner at 1/50

mail them requesting a price though PP have specials on site under 200m specials as far as i know

ecoli

mrgaa1 wrote: »

unbelievable - i predict something and it happened

Unfortunately the price for this was only 4/7

LambDave

Anyone know what the odds were on the 1,2,3 in the 100m last night? Thought it was a great bet but couldn't make a bookies.

ecoli

lads dark horse for tonight Maggie Vessey at 14/1 worth a punt

dpo

ecoli wrote: »

Unfortunately the price for this was only 4/7

No, he predicted sub 9.60, i think you're referring to the price for bolt to break the 9.69 world record, which was actually 4-5. Sub 9.60 wasn't priced up but i'd imagine would've been at least a 5-1 shot. Credit where it's due, a good prediction!

PS- the 1,2,3 would've only been about 2-1 or 3-1.
And please people, check oddschecker.com before blindly surrendering your money to paddy power or boyles at prices which are often extremely scabby. It pays to shop around.