UK Recovery

ei.sdraob

I wasn't sure whether to post here or in economics but taught this is more relevant to Ireland

Anyways alot of posters keep saying that the UK and the US are now "recovering" :rolleyes: and all this talk of "green shoots" (why does hearing them 2 words make me think of amsterdam?)

Theres also a lengthy topic about UK here but i didnt want to interrupt the bickering so


So here you have a very interesting article with figures and graphs that shows all of this "recovery" talk is a very bad joke

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/08/recovery-in-uk.html

So exactly what is the source of this recovery? Here is a summary of where we are at:
There is no productivity improvement but a decline
The number of workers in the workforce is in rapid decline
Production is below the levels of 1998
The trade balance of goods and services is negative, the trade in services remains positive but with no growth, and the current account balance is negative. On balance, we are still consuming more than we produce.
GDP growth, a poor measure that exagerates the positive, is still negative. Even if it were to move to the positive, how much of the activity recorded comes from growth in debt?
Altogether, this simply shows that there is no sustainable recovery. A shrinking UK workforce is still consuming more than it produces, and productivity and output are still in negative territory.

So where exactly is the recovery?

Yixian

The UK is using quantitative easing as basically it's only lifeline out of recession.

The problem is... quantitative easing has almost never worked :S

QE basically works by the state directly creating new cash and injecting it into banks in order to maintain the interest rates. The Bank of England has printed a crapload of £££ in the hope that it will entice lending and spending etc.

Japan tried this and it ruined their economy so badly it hasn't recovered fully since - and they have tons of productive industries, Britain has none.

So far the banks in England still aren't lending and so there's no spending, no investments, nothing. Instead the value of the £ is dropping further and further, making it unattractive to foreign investors who will start to pull out if it keeps up.

The dollar is also suffering from devaluation. America isn't in so much trouble because it to has plenty of diverse and robust industries to keep the country chugging along through the recession - but the $ is also unattractive to foreign companies and so a lot of assets are going to start being stored in the euro.

One result of this recession is that the euro will probably be the most powerful currency in the world.

That suits Ireland of course and if NAMA works then they're basically out of the red. The only issue is public spending cuts in the wrong place in Ireland, like the ones that moron McCarthy is suggesting, could cut the bollocks off the Irish work force and leave it relatively poorly educated, unhappy, unemployed and unhealthy in comparison to say.. Finland of Denmark.


The future isn't too bright for Britain, the country is basically fueled by the city of London and the city of London is nothing but a collection of banks. Finance accounts for so much of Britain's GDP that if QE fails and the country faces a complete banking collapse a la Japan it will be screwed on a scale not seen in Europe for 70 years.

There are no green shoots in Britain because the seeds weren't sewn for new industry that would pull them out of any banking crisis, and it's already far too late to start sewing them now. If they had joined the euro they'd be in a much better chance to escape this with their tail still attatched but now their fate seems pretty much sealed unless America and Europe bounce back so hard they can coast along with them - but even then the sterling is kaput.



By the time the recession is over there'll still be enough wind in Ireland's sail for it to pick up where it left off providing it moves toward a more socially-orientated form of economics. The only mistake Ireland can make that will really ruin the country is to not adopt the Nordic model in at least respect to public spending - 1980s Britain made McCarthy style cuts and the NHS plummeted down the charts in European health care, education suffered and the population of the country is now rated by the UN as one of the unhappiest in Europe.

This absolutely cannot be allowed to happen to Éire..

irish_bob

Yixian wrote: »

The UK is using quantitative easing as basically it's only lifeline out of recession.

The problem is... quantitative easing has almost never worked :S

QE basically works by the state directly creating new cash and injecting it into banks in order to maintain the interest rates. The Bank of England has printed a crapload of £££ in the hope that it will entice lending and spending etc.

Japan tried this and it ruined their economy so badly it hasn't recovered fully since - and they have tons of productive industries, Britain has none.

So far the banks in England still aren't lending and so there's no spending, no investments, nothing. Instead the value of the £ is dropping further and further, making it unattractive to foreign investors who will start to pull out if it keeps up.

The dollar is also suffering from devaluation. America isn't in so much trouble because it to has plenty of diverse and robust industries to keep the country chugging along through the recession - but the $ is also unattractive to foreign companies and so a lot of assets are going to start being stored in the euro.

One result of this recession is that the euro will probably be the most powerful currency in the world.

That suits Ireland of course and if NAMA works then they're basically out of the red. The only issue is public spending cuts in the wrong place in Ireland, like the ones that moron McCarthy is suggesting, could cut the bollocks off the Irish work force and leave it relatively poorly educated, unhappy, unemployed and unhealthy in comparison to say.. Finland of Denmark.


The future isn't too bright for Britain, the country is basically fueled by the city of London and the city of London is nothing but a collection of banks. Finance accounts for so much of Britain's GDP that if QE fails and the country faces a complete banking collapse a la Japan it will be screwed on a scale not seen in Europe for 70 years.

There are no green shoots in Britain because the seeds weren't sewn for new industry that would pull them out of any banking crisis, and it's already far too late to start sewing them now. If they had joined the euro they'd be in a much better chance to escape this with their tail still attatched but now their fate seems pretty much sealed unless America and Europe bounce back so hard they can coast along with them - but even then the sterling is kaput.



By the time the recession is over there'll still be enough wind in Ireland's sail for it to pick up where it left off providing it moves toward a more socially-orientated form of economics. The only mistake Ireland can make that will really ruin the country is to not adopt the Nordic model in at least respect to public spending - 1980s Britain made McCarthy style cuts and the NHS plummeted down the charts in European health care, education suffered and the population of the country is now rated by the UN as one of the unhappiest in Europe.

This absolutely cannot be allowed to happen to Éire..

finland ( which is a nordic country ) pays its teachers 55% less than we do yet finland comes in at number 3 in a list of the countrys with the best education in the world , ireland is not in the top 20 , cutting the amount spent on education need not have a negative effect on pupils , the same goes for the health service , the difference between ireland and the likes of the nordic countries when it comes to public service is , here , nearly all the money spent goes towards wages , we need to look at where the money is spent , not simply throw more money at it

ashleey

It's probably wise to get your facts straight or re read your economics books.
Japan tried QE after several years of trying to hide the insolvency of their banks (sound familiar?).
QE doesn't 'maintain' an interest rate. It is an attempt to reduce long term rates by reducing the amount of gilts left over in the market i.e. the boe is the main buyer in the face of supposedly limited supply.
If buying 'assets' at way over market value is a good thing then Nama is a great idea despite the fact that the taxpayer will be paying the difference for years.
QE is causing a fall in sterling which hurts existing outside investors but makes new investments cheaper for a market of 60 million people.
Obviously QE doesn't work for small economies but is probably the least worst option for large. Membership of the euro would have caused way more serious problems. Consider the gold standard and Europe 60 years ago.
The only reason Ireland isn't at the IMF now is the syndication of Govt bond issues. The Irish banks are placing them for cash immediately with the ECB. That's why the govt. is so scared of nationalising them as only private banks are allowed to use the discount window.
I think you'll find the McCarthy report is designed to keep the Germans onside with this arrangement. The alternative...

You are right about the green shoots bs though.

stepbar

Green shoots. I would love to shoot the person who coined this phrase.

ashleey

And also shoot the next person who says 'the rate of decline is slowing'. It's only slowing because if it carried on at the original rate everyone would be unemployed by next week.
The only solution is 'top down'. The current 'bottom up' approach will destroy everything

hiorta

http://taboard.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=101288&st=0&gopid=1471061&#entry1471061

creeper1

The UK now has nothing. No commodities. There is no gold, diamonds, etc. Gordon Brown sold the UK's gold at a terrible price. I guess he doesn't know what he is doing.

You have a very resource poor country. I will admit that their universities are among the most prestigious in the world (Oxford/Cambridge) and they probably make some money through students paying high fees.

NAH come to think of it their universities are in a terrible shape.

Their population are degenerating as well. Did you ever see the Jeremy Kyle show? The guests that frequent that show are the future of Britain - After all they are the ones having the babies.

Do you think a recovery is going to come from the types of people that frequent Jeremy Kyle? Do they look like an educated workforce ready to start a smart economy - the one Ireland is in the process of developing? Ha:rolleyes:

I can;t blame them. They are losing their resolve and dignity through umemployment. They have totally no future so they just give up on themselves and come to look like Jeremy Kyle guests. Having babies not knowing who the dad is, taking drugs - the list goes on and on.

The future of Britain - Major cities look like Bangladesh. We should move now and exclude them from the EU. They'll only drag us down.

ejmaztec

creeper1 wrote: »

The UK now has nothing. No commodities. There is no gold, diamonds, etc. Gordon Brown sold the UK's gold at a terrible price. I guess he doesn't know what he is doing.

You have a very resource poor country. I will admit that their universities are among the most prestigious in the world (Oxford/Cambridge) and they probably make some money through students paying high fees.

NAH come to think of it their universities are in a terrible shape.

Their population are degenerating as well. Did you ever see the Jeremy Kyle show? The guests that frequent that show are the future of Britain - After all they are the ones having the babies.

Do you think a recovery is going to come from the types of people that frequent Jeremy Kyle? Do they look like an educated workforce ready to start a smart economy - the one Ireland is in the process of developing? Ha:rolleyes:

I can;t blame them. They are losing their resolve and dignity through umemployment. They have totally no future so they just give up on themselves and come to look like Jeremy Kyle guests. Having babies not knowing who the dad is, taking drugs - the list goes on and on.

The future of Britain - Major cities look like Bangladesh. We should move now and exclude them from the EU. They'll only drag us down.

I didn't realise that the entire population of the UK had been on the Jeremy Kyle show to give you such a definitive guide.

Dr Galen

creeper1 wrote: »

The UK now has nothing. No commodities. There is no gold, diamonds, etc. Gordon Brown sold the UK's gold at a terrible price. I guess he doesn't know what he is doing.

You have a very resource poor country. I will admit that their universities are among the most prestigious in the world (Oxford/Cambridge) and they probably make some money through students paying high fees.

NAH come to think of it their universities are in a terrible shape.

Their population are degenerating as well. Did you ever see the Jeremy Kyle show? The guests that frequent that show are the future of Britain - After all they are the ones having the babies.

Do you think a recovery is going to come from the types of people that frequent Jeremy Kyle? Do they look like an educated workforce ready to start a smart economy - the one Ireland is in the process of developing? Ha:rolleyes:

I can;t blame them. They are losing their resolve and dignity through umemployment. They have totally no future so they just give up on themselves and come to look like Jeremy Kyle guests. Having babies not knowing who the dad is, taking drugs - the list goes on and on.

The future of Britain - Major cities look like Bangladesh. We should move now and exclude them from the EU. They'll only drag us down.

a population of Jeremy Kyle guests, and then the statement about cities looking like Bangladesh......do we need to even start on this one?

Fratton Fred

The analysts i work with aren't talking about green shoots of recovery (and I'll ask, but I don't think any of them have been on the Jeremy Kyle show), what they are all talking about is that the UK economy will recover in a large "U" shape, with the bottom being rather long and drawn out. The general consensus is that the UK has hit bottom and is now trundleing along the bottom and will do so into next year before it starts to recover.

What people are excited about at the moment is that there is movement in the housing market and property prices have stopped dropping and are showing signs of increasing slightly. Consumer spending is actually up as well, one example i will cite is my brother having work done on his house, a lot of the small builder/decoraters in London are stacked out with work, mainly because people with large mortgages have seen the repayments slashed over the last 9 months, so they are now spending money on their properties and putting money back into circulation. it is small stuff, but it is something.

The Car manufacturers have started making cars for export again (Honda produce cars in the UK for export into Japan and the US believe it or not) and I believe that cars are once again being sold (thanks in no small part to the scrappage scheme). so in all, it is not all bad news, but I think it is too early to start talking about green shoots of recovery.

Fratton Fred

creeper1 wrote: »

The UK now has nothing. No commodities. There is no gold, diamonds, etc. Gordon Brown sold the UK's gold at a terrible price. I guess he doesn't know what he is doing.

You have a very resource poor country. I will admit that their universities are among the most prestigious in the world (Oxford/Cambridge) and they probably make some money through students paying high fees.

NAH come to think of it their universities are in a terrible shape.

Their population are degenerating as well. Did you ever see the Jeremy Kyle show? The guests that frequent that show are the future of Britain - After all they are the ones having the babies.

Do you think a recovery is going to come from the types of people that frequent Jeremy Kyle? Do they look like an educated workforce ready to start a smart economy - the one Ireland is in the process of developing? Ha:rolleyes:

I can;t blame them. They are losing their resolve and dignity through umemployment. They have totally no future so they just give up on themselves and come to look like Jeremy Kyle guests. Having babies not knowing who the dad is, taking drugs - the list goes on and on.

The future of Britain - Major cities look like Bangladesh. We should move now and exclude them from the EU. They'll only drag us down.

was that a comment on the UK economy, or just your own narrow minded prejudices coming out? If you want to exclude any country from the EU it should be Ireland, Ireland has done nothing but drag the EU down since it joined.

ardmacha

If you want to exclude any country from the EU it should be Ireland, Ireland has done nothing but drag the EU down since it joined.

Not at all. Notwithstanding some self indulgence on referenda, Ireland is an EU success story. It has risen from two thirds of EU GNP to the average. We used our prosperity to by BMWs and Bordeaux wines and so the EU model has worked. We opened our labour market to people from new accession countries. We did lose the run of ourselves in recent years, but we had a decade of solid growth before that and are an EU success story.

creeper1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The analysts i work with aren't talking about green shoots of recovery (and I'll ask, but I don't think any of them have been on the Jeremy Kyle show), what they are all talking about is that the UK economy will recover in a large "U" shape, with the bottom being rather long and drawn out. The general consensus is that the UK has hit bottom and is now trundleing along the bottom and will do so into next year before it starts to recover.

What people are excited about at the moment is that there is movement in the housing market and property prices have stopped dropping and are showing signs of increasing slightly. Consumer spending is actually up as well, one example i will cite is my brother having work done on his house, a lot of the small builder/decoraters in London are stacked out with work, mainly because people with large mortgages have seen the repayments slashed over the last 9 months, so they are now spending money on their properties and putting money back into circulation. it is small stuff, but it is something.

The Car manufacturers have started making cars for export again (Honda produce cars in the UK for export into Japan and the US believe it or not) and I believe that cars are once again being sold (thanks in no small part to the scrappage scheme). so in all, it is not all bad news, but I think it is too early to start talking about green shoots of recovery.

Jeremy Kyle is just like a random cross section of Britain. Ofcourse not everyone in Britain has been on Jeremy Kyle but if you were to pick randomly 20 people of the streets of Manchester or whatever hole you find most of them are typical of the guests on this show.

There are educated and sophisticated people in the UK I guess but they aint having babies. As I already mentioned it's the Jeremy Kyle guests. That's where the population explosion is going to happen. Those people are the future of the UK.

U-shaped recovery? What a joke. How about my analysis? Complete crash followed by absolutely no recovery. Major cities look like Calcutta.

The UK produces practically nothing. Honda produces cars in the UK destined for Asian markets. Is that the best you can do? Wouldn't appear to me to be the safest industry with no chance of going abroad.

You aren't a world player anymore. Your power needs to be pruned. There will be no return for your Brittania.

As I said 100% finished. You are finished.

Board-in-work

creeper1 wrote: »

Jeremy Kyle is just like a random cross section of Britain. Ofcourse not everyone in Britain has been on Jeremy Kyle but if you were to pick randomly 20 people of the streets of Manchester or whatever hole you find most of them are typical of the guests on this show.

There are educated and sophisticated people in the UK I guess but they aint having babies. As I already mentioned it's the Jeremy Kyle guests. That's where the population explosion is going to happen. Those people are the future of the UK.

U-shaped recovery? What a joke. How about my analysis? Complete crash followed by absolutely no recovery. Major cities look like Calcutta.

The UK produces practically nothing. Honda produces cars in the UK destined for Asian markets. Is that the best you can do? Wouldn't appear to me to be the safest industry with no chance of going abroad.

You aren't a world player anymore. Your power needs to be pruned. There will be no return for your Brittania.

As I said 100% finished. You are finished.

What are you - 12 years of age ? I thought this was a discussion about the UK economy - If you have nothing constructive to add, perhaps you should contribute nothing.

Fratton Fred

ardmacha wrote: »

Not at all. Notwithstanding some self indulgence on referenda, Ireland is an EU success story. It has risen from two thirds of EU GNP to the average. We used our prosperity to by BMWs and Bordeaux wines and so the EU model has worked. We opened our labour market to people from new accession countries. We did lose the run of ourselves in recent years, but we had a decade of solid growth before that and are an EU success story.

i would say Ireland is half a success story, it was going exactly to plan, but when ireland was supposed to start chipping in and helping out with the costs towards redeveloping the succession states, it turns up at the EU cap in hand asking for a bail out. The same as greece and Spain.

creeper1 wrote: »

Jeremy Kyle is just like a random cross section of Britain. Ofcourse not everyone in Britain has been on Jeremy Kyle but if you were to pick randomly 20 people of the streets of Manchester or whatever hole you find most of them are typical of the guests on this show.

There are educated and sophisticated people in the UK I guess but they aint having babies. As I already mentioned it's the Jeremy Kyle guests. That's where the population explosion is going to happen. Those people are the future of the UK.

U-shaped recovery? What a joke. How about my analysis? Complete crash followed by absolutely no recovery. Major cities look like Calcutta.

The UK produces practically nothing. Honda produces cars in the UK destined for Asian markets. Is that the best you can do? Wouldn't appear to me to be the safest industry with no chance of going abroad.

You aren't a world player anymore. Your power needs to be pruned. There will be no return for your Brittania.

As I said 100% finished. You are finished.

you really have no idea what you are talking about.

wasper

In the morning they announced that the UK is emerging from recession before the USA, then 3 - 4 hours later, they announced that the UK government was to give £50bn more to the banks.

hiorta

This thread is really about the Irish economy, but I think creeper1 has a fair point.
The UK has declined from steel to plastic, from innovative manufacturing to client assembly, from a maritime nation to the Jeremy Kyle parodies of people, from strutting dung heap roosters to a nation in disbelieving shock.

There are still many positives of course.

The naturally aging Queen seems to have become an quiet embarrassment rather than a dynamic symbol of faded glory, judging by the failed attempts of touch up artists to create a desireable iconic profile. No shame in growing old - we all practice it daily.
The symbology seems suitably apt though.

History tells us that they must all limp off into the sunset sooner or later.

Fratton Fred

hiorta wrote: »

This thread is really about the Irish economy, .

actually this thread was about UK Recovery, but it seems that it is just an excuse to spout a load of baseless bollox about the old enemy.

You carry on watching Jeremy kyle if that is what floats your boat and let the rest of us live in the real world.

Yixian

I don't know if Jeremy Kyle is that good a representation of Britain but there are many lessons to be learned from the UK.

• Choosing financial industries over science, tech and real exports will doom you to eventual failure.

• Privatisation is the quickest way to lower the standard of public services in the country, no matter how proud a tradition you've had of them in the past.

• When the public reacts to the failure of the government by becoming apathetic rather than passionate and insistent on change, you'll find the cycle will repeat itself until bankruptcy.

Britain is a country 20 years ahead of Ireland economically. Ireland stands where Britain did in the late 80's and if opinion polls are anything to go by it looks like it'll make all the same mistakes.

That is so, so sad.

Rule number 1. in economics: don't do what the Brits do. They try to ape American style neo-liberalism but are too small and insignificant to even manage that and end up cutting public spending everywhere while unemployment skyrockets and the bankers hide out in underground bunkers for 10 years until it's safe for them to come out and enjoy the next short-lived boom.

hiorta

Hi Fred. You are absolutely correct about one thing - the thread is about a UK recovery, my apologies.

However, aren't you being a wee bit 'creative' about the other bits - as well as jumping to speculative conclusions?

AlekSmart

Oh it`s about the UK alright....but it`s about the real world of UK life.

Bringing their ageing Monarchy into it serves no useful purpose at all and in hiorta`s example just appears mean-spirited and petty in a personal sense..."Say NO to ageism,I say" even when referring to a monarch ?

Our own Eamon DeValera clung grimly to the Presedential reins for long enough and one can only imagine the height of dudgeon we Irish would have felt if some "Brit" had dared to point out the all too obvious advances of old age on the man and his wife....

The Brits difficulties mirror our own,or perhaps ours reflects theirs.....chicken and egg ?

This truly massive wedge of private debt...largely to fund a dubious notion of compulsory Property Ownership first popularised by Margaret Hilda Thatcher or Baroness Thatcher as she now is.....ah...the rewards of bubble-making.

The average European Joe is far better placed to take advantage of even slight upswings in mood and performance largely due to the fact that EuroJoe ain`t stuck up the forward end of a 40 year mortgage on a shoe-box in some far flung peripheral town..... :rolleyes:

Yet,our major Cities are stuffed full of vacant semi-delerict resedential dwelling space over almost every shop......just walk along any Dublin City Centre street and cast your gaze one floor up.....row after row of emptiness.....broken panes of glass....overgrown gutters....boarded-up doorways....and the working population now struggling to commute from Cavan....Portarlington.....Wexford...and points beyond....

Who in Gods name ever put this forward as being "Sustainable"....The Dáil Barmen must have been dishing out Absynthe to the Members..... :eek:

Fratton Fred

One of the worst things to happen to the UK economy, in hindsight, was Sarbanne oxley.

When SOX hit the US, a lot of US companies jumped ship and came to the UK. This had the effect of not only bumping up property prices in London but also created an expolosion in the city that not even the IRA could imagine.

Money was being thrown about like crazy, there was insider dealing, corruption and all sorts because it had become the financial capital of the world but with a lot less regulation than the US.

All the best graduates, rather than becoming engineers or scientists were fannying around with spreadsheets in the city for 6 or 7 figure salaries. People were getting paid **** loads of money for doing not a lot, the banks were going mad and buying everyone and everything and lending money out to people who had no chance of ever paying it back.

Then it all came crashing down and brought the rest of the country down with it.

Fratton Fred

hiorta wrote: »

Hi Fred. You are absolutely correct about one thing - the thread is about a UK recovery, my apologies.

However, aren't you being a wee bit 'creative' about the other bits - as well as jumping to speculative conclusions?

such as?

ardmacha

While I profoundly resent HRH making me her subject by force, the above comment was out of line. QE II has a dignified and dutiful approach to things, quite the opposite of the people on Jeremy Kyle.

As I said on the other thread Ireland has real problems, but most people know this. We have a recent model in the 1992-2000 period to offer ideas about what to do about this. We had the mother of all booms and we largely know it could not have lasted. Britain has a similar problem but hasn't fully faced up to it.

They also have a problem relating to Scotland and NI. The UK economic model is to have a thriving City of London, raise money there and dole it out to the periphery. There hasn't really been much interest in having real economic activity in these places. Now the engine in broken and the government is in hock up to its neck and so cannot give big subsidies to these potentially fissiparous regions.

Yixian

AlekSmart wrote: »

Who in Gods name ever put this forward as being "Sustainable"....The Dáil Barmen must have been dishing out Absynthe to the Members..... :eek:

Sustainable? What makes you think there is even any interest in sustainability in the anglo-american model? The plan is functioning as smoothly as anyone in a position of power could hope for - see, as far as anyone in any kind of position of power is concerned we don't live in boom-bust cycle but a boom-parachute cycle in which the inevitable credit crunch resulting from a decade or so of financial skull duggery and lawful corruption is negated by bank nationalisaton at the expense of the tax payer until enough money can be borrowed from the future that another boom based on the utterly imaginary wealth of the western world reemerges.

We don't live in a capitalist society, capitalism is a relatively progressive, proto-socialist philosophy in which the consolidated power of the aristocracy is made available to the public to be competed for in a free market. No sooner, however, had the intellectual world moved on from capitalism to yet further more egalitarian forms of economics, the world took a giant leaped backwards and reconsolidated power in private hands in the form of chartered corporations.

That's what we live in, a corporatist world that relies on borrowing from the future in order to make us richer in the present... It couldn't get more inherently unsustainable. The minority who manage to make any amount of money through the buying and selling of actual physical goods, or those who simply inherit it from their megarich Saudi uncles set about trying to directly buy even more money with the money they already have by investing in schemes, ideas, projects and prospects that have not even happened yet.

Of course the future has an annoying tendency never to arrive and stubbornly lie just out of reach of the present, and thanks to this infuriating quality of space-time our economist overlords find themselves unable to repay the debts of the present with the fantastically over-exaggerated predictions of the future and boom - you have a recession.

This is all working as intended. Any assets ludicrously invested in the public are simply butchered up and sold on to negate oh... 1% of the financial losses, whilst billions of non-existent dollars are printed to bail out the perfectly legally corrupt individuals who created the entire mess in the first place.


Things are only ever really not going according to plan when bank executives wages are going down. As it happens they're continuing to rise so it's safe to assume that ther anglo-american model is a wonderful success as always!

AlekSmart

Things are only ever really not going according to plan when bank executives wages are going down. As it happens they're continuing to rise so it's safe to assume that ther anglo-american model is a wonderful success as always!

Yup...It must have been hallucinogenic rite`nuff....

Mind you them Nigerians appear to be able to give it stick when necessary...... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8208932.stm

ashleey

Can we just clear something up please?
Not all of us English love the Queen.
Not all of us are rabid xenophobes.
A bad Uk economy is bad for Ireland and vice versa and each bad economy is bad for the eu. Consider how much the ecb is now lending here? It does have to be paid back.
This doesn't have to be a discussion of I'm better than you.
If Ireland is in such a great position why is it borrowing so much? If the Uk is so good why is it doing the same. I think you'll find only Germany has got it right. They produce everything we want to buy, paid for east germany, paid for the Irish farmers etc. And haven't complained once.

creeper1

ashleey wrote: »

Can we just clear something up please?
Not all of us English love the Queen.
Not all of us are rabid xenophobes.
A bad Uk economy is bad for Ireland and vice versa and each bad economy is bad for the eu. Consider how much the ecb is now lending here? It does have to be paid back.
This doesn't have to be a discussion of I'm better than you.
If Ireland is in such a great position why is it borrowing so much? If the Uk is so good why is it doing the same. I think you'll find only Germany has got it right. They produce everything we want to buy, paid for east germany, paid for the Irish farmers etc. And haven't complained once.

Yes a bad UK economy is bad for the EU. Which is the reason why I'd kick the UK out of the EU if I had my way so hard you wouldn't feel the landing. Same goes for Latvia, Estonia and all the other Eastern European third world crap holes. I would simply tell them to go to hell.

Now don't respond to me about how Ireland was poor when it first joined. There was no crisis then.

I am patriotic and I want what is in the best interest of Ireland. I think only of Ireland. In my mind, Ireland is number one. I say with force - Western Europe is where the wealth and advanced economies are - for the love of God cut off these Eastern Europeans.

What the hell gives the EU the right to enlarge like that?? Do you think we like our Industries like Dell going to fecking Poland!!! The real reason Ireland said no to the Lisbon treaty is because we don't want those countries coming in. Is this a democracy? Let our voice be heard/ These countries will just sponge up money. They are already bankrupt.

Do I fancy competing in a job in Ireland with Bulgarians and Romanians? Like hell I do!!! Yet the expanding EU allows these countries in! Although we closed our employment market to them, the feckers still have the right to come to IReland - and dawm it they will work illegally.

Kalashnikov_Kid

creeper1 wrote: »

Yes a bad UK economy is bad for the EU. Which is the reason why I'd kick the UK out of the EU if I had my way so hard you wouldn't feel the landing. Same goes for Latvia, Estonia and all the other Eastern European third world crap holes. I would simply tell them to go to hell.

Now don't respond to me about how Ireland was poor when it first joined. There was no crisis then.

I am patriotic and I want what is in the best interest of Ireland. I think only of Ireland. In my mind, Ireland is number one. I say with force - Western Europe is where the wealth and advanced economies are - for the love of God cut off these Eastern Europeans.

What the hell gives the EU the right to enlarge like that?? Do you think we like our Industries like Dell going to fecking Poland!!! The real reason Ireland said no to the Lisbon treaty is because we don't want those countries coming in. Is this a democracy? Let our voice be heard/ These countries will just sponge up money. They are already bankrupt.

Do I fancy competing in a job in Ireland with Bulgarians and Romanians? Like hell I do!!! Yet the expanding EU allows these countries in! Although we closed our employment market to them, the feckers still have the right to come to IReland - and dawm it they will work illegally.

Wow...just wow. You are suggesting that the UK be kicked out of the EU and Ireland be left in? How can you justify that?!

Have you any idea how many millions of pounds worth of EU money has been thrown at Ireland over the years to bring it out of an economic backwater to make it the country it is today? There was no crisis, just no money and no progressive economy to speak of.

Ever heard of CAP, and how many Irish farmers have made a living off this?

Eastern European = third World - youre having a laugh no? By that rationale Ireland was Third World before it joined the EU.

Ireland cant have its cake and eat it.

'Our industries like Dell'... mate you might wanna take a step back and have another look at what you have just written there.

This is hilarious. Post of the year. Hats off to you Sir.

Fratton Fred

the UK will be paying £6.94Bn into the EU this year.

Maybe creeer could tell us what Ireland's contribution will be

Noffles

I've noticed that any thread with the term UK in the subject turns into an British bashing exercise....

ei.sdraob

im kinda disappointed as some of the posts are downright racist

this was meant to be an economics thread and i hoped for a discussion with further facts being brought into view

since whatever happens in UK affects ireland

ashleey

Just got back from a weekend in krakow. You're having a laugh if you think they will be a drain on the eu. They work twice as hard as us. Their economy didn't go into recession. Bet you in 5 years time Ireland is still a net recipient of funds and Poland is a net contributor. The uk will be paying in as it votes a another bunch of incompetents in. I think you'll find Dell went to Poland for a reason. I think you'll find the move East of the centre of Europe will be more acceptable to the Germans given some of the games that went on in the ifsc by some of their banks.

ei.sdraob

ashleey wrote: »

Just got back from a weekend in krakow. You're having a laugh if you think they will be a drain on the eu. They work twice as hard as us. Their economy didn't go into recession. Bet you in 5 years time Ireland is still a net recipient of funds and Poland is a net contributor. The uk will be paying in as it votes a another bunch of incompetents in. I think you'll find Dell went to Poland for a reason. I think you'll find the move East of the centre of Europe will be more acceptable to the Germans given some of the games that went on in the ifsc by some of their banks.

you right

often the xenophobia against eastern Europeans is born out of resentment of them

they are just harder working and better looking than the Irish for most part, theres no denying that

ashleey

It's about economic management. You can still be patriotic but you have to admit when the country is run by fools and generally corrupt at that. Until that changes there will be no recovery in uk or ireland

Martyr

IMO there won't be any recovery in Ireland for many years ahead.

I plan on leaving myself and i'm sure many others will too..pretty sad that you have to leave your own country because of the corrupt politics..but what can you do, eh?

ei.sdraob

Martyr wrote: »

IMO there won't be any recovery in Ireland for many years ahead.

I plan on leaving myself and i'm sure many others will too..pretty sad that you have to leave your own country because of the corrupt politics..but what can you do, eh?

Im on same boat as you planing to row away

I dont feel like paying taxes for next 30 years to payoff bankers and developers

There are plenty of places with lower taxes and cheaper living (Caymans, Dubai, Panama) or better government (Canada) that spends the tax money more wisely (Canadian banks are rock solid and barely scratched by recession)

And the best part my job only requires and internet connection and electricity, since the money is earned from online business with all customers being outside of Ireland, if only i can persuade the family

/

ashleey

It's not really the amount of tax you pay it's what they do with it that determines how really successful a country is. Denmark pay high rates, Canada pay lower. I don't think any real patriot would say that Ireland is better placed than either. Back to the original point. A business survey index doesn't mean recovery. Only unemployment rates should be the real guage. There's no economic well being if huge numbers are on welfare either by choice or for no alternative. When unemployment starts falling then the uk is in recovery. If the country is well run then that should be the objective. Don't trust a politician who bills you for a limo for a 5 minute walk or to have his moat cleaned in the uk.

grahamo

creeper1 wrote: »

Jeremy Kyle is just like a random cross section of Britain. Ofcourse not everyone in Britain has been on Jeremy Kyle but if you were to pick randomly 20 people of the streets of Manchester or whatever hole you find most of them are typical of the guests on this show.

There are educated and sophisticated people in the UK I guess but they aint having babies. As I already mentioned it's the Jeremy Kyle guests. That's where the population explosion is going to happen. Those people are the future of the UK.

U-shaped recovery? What a joke. How about my analysis? Complete crash followed by absolutely no recovery. Major cities look like Calcutta.

The UK produces practically nothing. Honda produces cars in the UK destined for Asian markets. Is that the best you can do? Wouldn't appear to me to be the safest industry with no chance of going abroad.

You aren't a world player anymore. Your power needs to be pruned. There will be no return for your Brittania.

As I said 100% finished. You are finished.

Wind up merchant. He's obviously 11 years old

Yixian

Martyr wrote: »

IMO there won't be any recovery in Ireland for many years ahead.

I plan on leaving myself and i'm sure many others will too..pretty sad that you have to leave your own country because of the corrupt politics..but what can you do, eh?

An emigration complex is the last thing any country needs right now...

Ireland will be out of recession by 2013 in a much more stable way than the UK. The point is unless democratic socialism and a knowledge economy is instated, Ireland will neither regain the quality of life it had before te crash nor avoid future crashes.

The knowledge economy is on the way but both FF and FG are Brit-clone incompetant third way assholes that will achieve nothing but stagnation.

Labour isn't perfect but it's the only real option that won't result in "same **** different day".

getz

Yixian wrote: »

An emigration complex is the last thing any country needs right now...

Ireland will be out of recession by 2013 in a much more stable way than the UK. The point is unless democratic socialism and a knowledge economy is instated, Ireland will neither regain the quality of life it had before te crash nor avoid future crashes.

The knowledge economy is on the way but both FF and FG are Brit-clone incompetant third way assholes that will achieve nothing but stagnation.

Labour isn't perfect but it's the only real option that won't result in "same **** different day".

its so nice to know we have clever people like you to sort out the UK economy.

ei.sdraob

ashleey wrote: »

It's not really the amount of tax you pay it's what they do with it that determines how really successful a country is. Denmark pay high rates, Canada pay lower. I don't think any real patriot would say that Ireland is better placed than either. Back to the original point. A business survey index doesn't mean recovery. Only unemployment rates should be the real guage. There's no economic well being if huge numbers are on welfare either by choice or for no alternative. When unemployment starts falling then the uk is in recovery. If the country is well run then that should be the objective. Don't trust a politician who bills you for a limo for a 5 minute walk or to have his moat cleaned in the uk.

i sort of agree with you

but, do remember that:

* populations are increasing (hence more competition for jobs unless the creation of these increase at same rate)
* new technologies mean more automation or efficiencies gained leading to less jobs (example robotics displacing people from factories, or IT leading to loss of the more repetitive of jobs)
* alot of people are working less, underemployment != unemployment

also what is a "perfect" unemployed:empoyed ratio?

and what about them 2-3% of people who dont bother working even in the best of times?

Yixian

getz wrote: »

its so nice to know we have clever people like you to sort out the UK economy.

I'm diaspora with a re-immigration complex xD

big syke

creeper1 wrote: »

our Industries like Dell

Are you for real? first of all dell is not an industry and second of all even if it was an industry it would not be OUR industry its an American company that located plants here.

And kick the UK out of the EU. Good luck to you they give billions every year to the EU which we gladly put our hand out to take.

Martyr

Yixian wrote:

Ireland will be out of recession by 2013 in a much more stable way than the UK.

based on what evidence?

and do you expect me to stay here in ireland paying high taxes until 2013? ha!

Yixian

Martyr wrote: »

based on what evidence?

and do you expect me to stay here in ireland paying high taxes until 2013? ha!

Where exactly are you going to move to to find lower taxes than Ireland? o_O

patbrady877

in my opinion there seems to be a bit of confusion out there between 'improvement' and 'recovery' - there has been an improvement, but they are a long way away from a recovery.

there are a lot of suggestions about it being a double dip recession-

MiniDriver

The UK won't recover to anywhere near pre-2007 levels. Neither will Ireland. Both countries are just going to have to get used to (re-acquaint themselves with) a lower standard of living.

In the USA they're already talking about a "jobless recovery", and even a "recoveryless recovery". The global economy has spend a decade over-producing and putting the profits into asset bubbles. Those bubbles have burst once and for all. Combined with looming peaks for all sorts of commodities, there'll be nowhere to run to either.

Using the Kubler-Ross grief cycle:

Denial > Anger > Bargaining > Depression > Acceptance

I suggest we go straight from denial to acceptance.

Martyr

Yixian wrote:

Where exactly are you going to move to to find lower taxes than Ireland? o_O

So you don't have any evidence?

I never said I'd move to north america or uk, i'm thinking more about east europe and asia.

Yixian

There was so much waste in the boom periods of pre-2007 that the quality of life in Ireland can be maintained with a knowledge economy and good social welfare, education, health care etc. - the biggest threat is cuts in these areas in order to make short term savings, doing so always results in a lower quality of life, higher unemployment and crime.

Ireland is in a better position than the UK to be honest. Being a small country with a small population but a still high GDP, with the right government changes can be made fast and like Finland, Denmark etc. Ireland could be a fast adapter.

But if it keeps trying to ape Britain with the anglo-american model it's going to follow their road into oblivion. The quality of life in the UK is already vastly below that of Ireland, crime is far higher in London than Dublin, by a factor of probably a few trillion. If you get the impression the UK is a rich, flourishing country it's because you're not seeing the whole picture, the North is still utterly neglected, and no sooner had unemployment and vagrantism started to improve it's going to drop right back down to 1980's style stagnation.

There's really very little going on in the UK beneath the surface. A double dip recession with the second dip being maybe a decade long is almost guaranteed. It happened to Japan in the same situation only Japan had a vast electronics and automobile industry to export, Britain has nothing bar a little oil - and it's not going to be able to quickly adapt to new industries like Ireland or Finland could.


Compare the north with the republic over the next 10 years and I really think you'll see what I mean, all wealth will be sucked back to London to keep Whitehall nice and clean so there's at least one part of the country with a high standard of living, even if it is only a Square Mile. Belfast is in for a rough time.

Martyr wrote: »

So you don't have any evidence?

I never said I'd move to north america or uk, i'm thinking more about east europe and asia.

Ride the booms in HK by all means but it'll be right back where London is in 15 years.

And no I don't have a single citable document that gives 2013 as a specific date, it's just a prediction, and a conservative one at that - the actual period of recession doesn't last very long you know, unless you slump into a lost decade like Japan, but there's no reason to think Ireland will to be honest with you. That's not to say it's not all a huge ****ty mess, but it just happens to be that a lost decade is unlikely. Maybe with really massive public spending cuts and no knowledge economy drive.

Ireland's lost decade would be 10/15 years from now if it didn't change it's ways I guess.