House prices adjusted for inflation

SkepticOne

A basic graph of a number of indices (Dept. of Environment, PTSB/ESRI, Daft)

The red line is second-hand homes from the Dept. of Environment site. The blue is new houses from the same site. The yellow is the often quoted PTSB/ESRI index which starts in 1996. The green is the Daft asking price index which begins in 2005.



The figures are adjusted to 2006 prices. From this it looks like the long run price in Ireland is around 100,000 in 2006 price terms. In 1996 it looks like a bubble started based on improvements in the economy. The bubble finally burst in late 2006/early 2007 and we're currently about a 33% into the correction, looking at another 4-5 years before prices hit their long run value.

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Link not working?

SkepticOne

nm wrote: »

Link not working?

Added image as an attachment. That should work.

spockety

No doubt you'll get a few on here telling you you're off your rocker, that there are certain factors that make Ireland different etc.

Anyway, what I'd also love to see is a graph that shows since 1978 what the ratio of dwellings to population was.. be interesting to see how supply/demand has changed over the years.

dazberry

So any takers on whether we're still in denial (that's a river in Egypt) or we're returning to "normal" ???

D.

Senna

SkepticOne wrote: »

looking at another 4-5 years before prices hit their long run value.

I would hope a bit quicker, maybe 3 years, the end result is inevitable i predict an average house price nationally of €120k, but the sooner we get there the better for everyone, not just FTB's. The usual timescale for these asset bubble burst is 7 years from peak to bottom, but our's was a particularly massive bubble and the country is going into ruin. So maybe Ireland is different maybe the drops will continue at pace and we wont have 2-3 years of a stagnant stand-off market towards the end.

SkepticOne

Senna wrote: »

I would hope a bit quicker, maybe 3 years, the end result is inevitable i predict an average house price nationally of €120k, but the sooner we get there the better for everyone, not just FTB's. The usual timescale for these asset bubble burst is 7 years from peak to bottom, but our's was a particularly massive bubble and the country is going into ruin. So maybe Ireland is different maybe the drops will continue at pace and we wont have 2-3 years of a stagnant stand-off market towards the end.

Government policy is likely to drag things out, imo.

Diarmuid

And always a good reference, our friends over the water
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
13 years from the peak to reach that point again.

So who still thinks we have bottomed out?

Victor

We're still above the long-term trend - and remember, in this phase, we have to go below the long-term trend.

Does someone have those figures in a spreadsheet?

SkepticOne

Victor wrote: »

We're still above the long-term trend - and remember, in this phase, we have to go below the long-term trend.

Does someone have those figures in a spreadsheet?

The CSO website is good for these figures. Output available in spreadsheet format.

http://www.cso.ie/px/DoEHLG/Database/DoEHLG/Housing%20Statistics/Housing%20Statistics.asp

The one I used was [FONT=Verdana,geneva,helvetica]Average Price of Houses by Quarter, Statistic and Area [/FONT]. Ideally those figures should be adjusted for inflation given the long-term nature of the market.

It looks to me that the long term trend is for average houses to be about 100,000 in 2006 prices.

It would be interesting to do graphs for each of the areas in the survey Dublin. Cork, Galway etc.

SkepticOne

Final version in PDF format attached.