The UK is Finished!! Consequences for Ireland

creeper1

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

amacachi

Some excellent sweeping generalisations in your post, thanks for those.

The UK isn't finished.

ejmaztec

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

:rolleyes:

creeper1

amacachi wrote: »

Some excellent sweeping generalisations in your post, thanks for those.

The UK isn't finished.

Yes it is. 100 percent true. They are finished. This just hot off the press.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/22/recession-uk-recovery-2014-national-debt

blastman

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

Gee, ya think (ever)?

ronbyrne2005

Sterling will devalue making them more competitive and manufacturing will return. Tourism and entertainment is big in uk and finance isnt going away.

cyclopath2001

creeper1 wrote: »

Yes it is. 100 percent true. They are finished. This just hot off the press.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/22/recession-uk-recovery-2014-national-debt

The word 'finished' does not appear anywhere in the article?

Fat_Fingers

creeper1 wrote: »

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

Easier said then done.. Trade what? Potatoes and beef? And lets not kid ourself about "knowledge economy". There is no knowledge economy here. Most of it has moved or is in the process of moving to East. What we have is a few pharmaceuticals that are here only for tax breaks.
You can never import "knowledge economy" in long term, it has to be homegrown.

ei.sdraob

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

Sterling will devalue making them more competitive and manufacturing will return. Tourism and entertainment is big in uk and finance isnt going away.

yes and no

you are ignoring the bad sides of devaluation, and that is every produc and service from outside the economy (energy, raw materials, goods from countries outside the UK etc) become more expensive

if this good or service can be produced in UK then it causes a positive effect, examples could be growing potatoes, making chicken curry in restaurant

now think what happens for goods that cant be produced in UK or cant be produced in UK to meed the demands of the economy, examples could be oranges, diamonds, gold, gas and so on

imho UK is bankrupt they are printing money (quantitative easing euphemism) in order to finance the government (public sector and welfare) now think of what will happen when this money enters economy? yep inflation or worse and poof goes your competitiveness

here in Ireland we are doing the right things and cutting costs (welfare public sector) and raising taxes

printing money wont address the underlying issues and only delay the inevitable

sorry for long post but i can go on and on

btw they were bankrupt for some time, its just everyone is still in denial and gives UK benefit of doubt

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/02/its-official-uk-government-is-now.html

hiorta

Whether 'finished' or not, it certainly is a spent force.
'Britain' per se, was solely a lucrative prop for English values and English interests, with the other inferior elements being ruthlessly exploited.

The make-up of these islands can be reformed in other ways ie. the Celtic elements are probably the numerical superiors, if that would be of any use.

The Saxons (lower Germans) are more naturally in affinity with Continental thinking, but are dismissed by them, hence the desire to prove themselves as good, if not better.

Where and how a different line-up would help in the current self-inflicted situation is hard to say, but real education seems to be a glaring priority.

But, serious change is needed, perhaps all elements assuming full independence and responsibility for their own actions and welfare.

IKOS

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

I doubt this. Do you really believe this? Nice generalisation too.

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

eamonnm79

Economic prediction from the UK
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that it will take another five years until income per head has returned to the level seen before the recession started in the second quarter of 2008"

Economic prediction from Ireland
"If these reforms happen, and the world economy recovers momentum in 2011, the ESRI believes economic growth in Ireland between 2011 and 2015 could be rapid.

Unemployment could be reduced from a peak of 17% next year, to around 7% by 2015, it adds.

But it says it will still take until the middle of the next decade for output to return to 2007 levels"

Thats right 2025!
We are way more vulnerable than the UK.

The UK is way too big to fail!

They could pull out of Afganistan and save billions if the going gets really tough.

The UK has huge weapons exports that the original commentator seems to forget.

ei.sdraob

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

thats down from 4th biggest not too long ago (they were behind us, japan and germany)

eamonnm79 wrote: »

The UK is way too big to fail!

werent they saying that about certain banks last year...

jmayo

creeper1 wrote: »

Jim Rodgers has been saying for a long time that the UK is finished and I tend to agree with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=related

Firstly do you think he is right? His premise is that the UK has only two things to sell the rest of the world. The first being the North Sea Oil which is running out . THe second being that the city of London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke.

THe bottom line I think is that in the future Ireland will have to increase it's trading with Europe and the rest of the world. The UK will become increasingly irrelevant as time goes on.

This ranks up there with your assumption that Germany has to bail us out, since they owe us for joining the Euro :rolleyes: (see other thread on german bailout).
If they have only two things to offer the world then what the f*** have we got ?
Jeeze you reckon it might not be good for us if our biggest and nearest trading partner went belly up ? :rolleyes:

So we have to increase trading links with Europe (i.e. really the EU countries), this would be the same EU that you feel owe us, the same EU you don't want to expand into the third world nations in the East ?

I thought I was bad about who I don't like, but you don't like all 60 odd million of them ?
BTW do you support an English soccer team by any chance ?

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK has something like the 6th biggest economy in the world. They will come out of this alot better than us without a doubt. The main reason being that they have control over their own currency.

ps if you cant get along with anyone out of 61 million people you know its probably not them thats the problem

It's all their fault.

ragg

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

considering that welfare and minimum wage are much higher here than UK

i wouldn't call cutting these down as "harsh"

mike65

creeper1 wrote: »

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people.

However I can't escape the fact that the UK is Ireland's biggest trading partner. It might not be good for us when they go broke .

I'll let those words speak for themselves. :rolleyes:

ragg

ei.sdraob wrote: »

considering that welfare and minimum wage are much higher here than UK

i wouldn't call cutting these down as "harsh"

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

what about cheaper services?

millions of citizens voting with their feet and traveling across the border to do shopping, is not happening right??

ardmacha

In recent years UK had an unsustainable bubble which delivered growth of 3-3.5%, we had an unsustainable bubble which delivered growth rates of 5-6%.
In both cases 3 years of growth are gone (15% and 9%) and living standards in 2015 will be about the same as 2003. Some the UK problems are masked by currency devaluations and the like, whereas in Ireland they are manifest in declining wages and prices. But some of the almost racist comment coming from London earlier implied that Ireland was uniquely a basket case, whereas we share the same anglo-saxon finance model and the UK is not any better off, they just haven't faced up to the facts. At least in Ireland we had it very good for while and we now know there is a problem.

ragg

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

but there comes a point when you cant cut costs more

tesco this side of the border would pay more for shelf stackers than the other side thanks to minimum wage

what happens when you cant lower costs more due to restrictions?

ragg

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

ejmaztec

ragg wrote: »

And have companies not reacted? reports yesterday suggest that 20% has been knocked of grocery prices in this country..
The reason? people voted with their feet. Don't confuse profiteering with high costs.

A good example of recent profiteering is sky box office programs - look at the differece betweeen costs in the UK & Ireland - is that because we are higher costs? No, its the exact same service, same everything. Big UK corporations just like to charge the paddys more

As do small, medium and large Irish corporations, that have been skinning people alive in Ireland a hell of a lot longer, mainly due to lack of competition and captive consumers.

mike65

I suspect a few here have an agenda that is not driven by matters fiscal or economic.

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

being competitive means having lower costs than your competition and/or higher productivity

now since the shelf packers here are not more productive (get more work done in same time than UK counterparts) but wage costs cant be lowered, hence the prices cant be lowered and we end up with higher prices > rip off ireland

now you see what minimum wage does?

btw energy costs are high because we dont have energy resources such as north sea oil and gas to keep prices of these low, you want to cut energy costs? build a nuclear plant, cheap consistent energy, but no we in ireland dont want anything nucular neither do we want to cut minimum wage to something more like the rest of EU

hence why our costs will stay high and we will be continued to be ripped off

femur61

creeper1 wrote: »

I think he has some good points here. I agree with his assesment.

Now I don't care about the UK economy. I don't like the county and I don't like the people. .

I have never heard such tripe in all my life.

ragg

Yes but blaming the high costs in stores such as tesco on staff isn't warrented to my mind.
i don't care how we generate electricity once it is cheaper. my point is, is that our people costs are only marginally over the rest of developed europe.
That diamond company in shannon paid almost €16 an hour. Blaming staff costs is a cop out, considering the they were paying almost double the minumum wage.
To my mind we have a lot of other places to look at reducing costs before we look at the minimum wages - especailly energy costs & the insane amout of stealth taxes & penalties the government put on business inthis country.

Anywho - its seems we have dragged this WAAAAAAY off topic

ei.sdraob

ragg wrote: »

Yes but blaming the high costs in stores such as tesco on staff isn't warrented to my mind.
i don't care how we generate electricity once it is cheaper. my point is, is that our people costs are only marginally over the rest of developed europe.
That diamond company in shannon paid almost €16 an hour. Blaming staff costs is a cop out, considering the they were paying almost double the minumum wage.
To my mind we have a lot of other places to look at reducing costs before we look at the minimum wages - especailly energy costs & the insane amout of stealth taxes & penalties the government put on business inthis country.

Anywho - its seems we have dragged this WAAAAAAY off topic

yes it has gone offtopic, continue it here please

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055629586

Noffles

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.

ei.sdraob

Noffles wrote: »

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.

schadenfreude is the word

I see it alot on UK forums when it comes to discussing Irish economic troubles

its a 2 way hate it seems

Noffles

ei.sdraob wrote: »

schadenfreude is the word

I see it alot on UK forums when it comes to discussing Irish economic troubles

its a 2 way hate it seems

There probably is, I haven't seen or looked for it though, just commenting on what I read here..

I also like the word Schadenfreude, it means bad friend or something doesn't it?

jmayo

ragg wrote: »

Like others have said, the UK won't fail. It is however in a very long period of recession - just as we are. Both our economies were built on the same house of cards.

Both countries will come out of the recession stronger - with more sustainable growth

For our part, we are taking the pain now, cutting expenditure, reforms of the public sector (hopefully), higher taxes, investing in the right areas - even with all this our export market has stayed almost constant.

The UK are in a position that they can print money, but they can also raise interest rates when that becomes an issue & they can restore competitveness by devaluing the £ - where as we have to take pretty harsh measures like cutting the minimum wage.

In summary, we are both screwed now, but its only temporary

I didn't know the UK economy was as dependent on the construction industry as us :rolleyes:
I don't recall them drastically increaing public spending based on the influx of taxes from a construction bubble ?
So how exactly are both our eocnomies built on the same hosue of cards again ?

Actually some of your post reads like a FF ministerial broadcast.
How are we taking the pain now ?
The major cuts in public sector spending have not even been implemented.
They have been proposed alright, but we haven't even seen a 10th of what needs to be done to get our public spending deficit back in line.

Where are we investing in the right areas or are you just regurditating coughlan and ryan (both grade A spanners talking out their ar**s) ?

ragg wrote: »

I would, we don't really deal in the business of low end manufacturing where by people earn less then €350 a week to work on production lines.. If we were to go down that road, we would never be able to compete with the east. Cheap, low end manufaturing in this part of the world is finished.
The minimum wage at the level it is now, is keeping families in homes and people off the streets. A complete property market crash is unthinkable - That is what will happen if we force people to lose their assets just because they lost their jobs

It is not alone low end manufacturing that is suffering or did you fail to notice Eircsson closed development centre in Dublin, Motorolla closed in Cork leaving hundreds of highly skilled engineers and developers out of work.

So we should screw our competitiveness, forcing companies out of business to ensure people keep the properties they paid too much for in the first place.
Are you saying we should base our economy on house prices ?

Why is a complete property crash unthinkable ?
At the moment we are keeping a false economy in terms of our house prices and it is becasue of that nothing is moving propertywise and there is a lot of uncertainty.

ragg wrote: »

That equiblibrium point will hit every business at some point - does that mean to make themselves more competitive they should just cut salaries?
Of course not. The real difference in minimum wage is only an issue now anyway due to the weak sterling, at its normal rate the difference is only about a £1.

Our barriers aren't the price we pay our staff, its the energy costs, the ancillary taxes. In fact, our people are probably our main strength

Our competition has suffered greatly and one of the reaons is increasing labour costs, as well as the other things you mentioned like energy and fuel.

We don't just compete against sterling on the issue of minimum wage.
We compete against the world and in particularl Eastern Europe & Asia.

Jeeze can people ever stop swallowing the BS being fed by government and it's state bodies about how fe**ing great our workforce are.
A big reason for our real celtic tiger was fact that we were cheap not alone in terms of reasonable educated english speaking labourforce, but also in coporation taxes and we were in the EU market.
Our workforce were/are reasonably educated, but for lots of positions we had to import immigrants to fill them.

diverdriver

Noffles, schadenfreude means taking pleasure in another's misfortune. Which the OP appears to be enjoying. Don't be too offended, there is still a rump of Irish people whose distorted version of patriotism involves disliking Britain and the British for all the usual tiresome oft repeated reasons. YAWN! Negative patriotism I call it. You Brits have your own version, I'm sure.


As for the original, the UK isn't finished. It's in trouble to be sure but the British are very good at getting themselves out of trouble. Would that we were the same.


jmayo's post, I completely agree with. It would be hard to better it. I do believe we are in for tough times. Tougher than people realise. People talk about our recovery. I wonder where it'll come from. It can't come from the construction sector. That's screwed. It will come back a bit but the old days of 40 or 50 tower cranes looming over Dublin's skyline are long gone. The builiding trade will never go back to the way it was.


Manufacturing is in decline and had been in decline for some time. The recovery won't come from there. I very much doubt even a significant reduction in wages will save that sector from more cuts. I worked for a major medical devices manufacturer once. The pay was rubbish. Many people had second jobs to keep themselves going. But right now, the word on the inside is that their new manager is desperatley trying to cut costs further in order to prevent head office from closing the operation and moving it somewhere cheaper. This is a big operation too.
There is a lot of talk of 'high end' jobs being created for graduates. That always annoys me. Most people can't do 'high end' jobs. Most people need low end jobs. Even during the 'Tiger' years many of these 'high end' jobs went to migrants because we didn't have the skill base.

A big reason for our real celtic tiger was fact that we were cheap not alone in terms of reasonable educated english speaking labourforce, but also in coporation taxes and we were in the EU market.

That is so true. Worse still, all too often many of these jobs were filled by migrants because the Irish were simply not available and frankly in my experience the migrants worked harder.



One thing, I don't understand is the enthusiasm for high taxes by some of the posters here. Exactly how are you going to stimulate an economy by taking earned money off people? If there was any lesson learned from the original manufacturing based tiger economy is that low taxes generate more taxes for the simple reason that people with money spend it more. The more the government lowered taxes the greater the revenue from tax. High taxes have a depressing effect on the economy. Many people are already on lower incomes, taking more off them in tax simply reduces the amount they spend in the economy. It's a vicious circle.



I seriously believe that we in this country do not have the basis for recovery. Where is it coming from? What industry? We have no natural resources. The original reason for the start of the upturn was an influx of multinationals attracted to Ireland. They are now in the process of disengaging. What will replace them?




Ten or twelve years ago when all this started rolling. There was a cynical view among my contemporaries that it would all last about ten years. All of us had seen the not so good times and I thought perhaps they were a bit pessimistic. Turns out they were right. I got a job in one of the big multinationals back then. The younger guys and girls were shocked at the attitude of some older people that the plant would be gone in ten years. Actually they were wrong, it was seven years.




I remember telling some of the younger people I worked with the enjoy those times. 'These are the good old days, enjoy them, They won't last'. They didn't believe me. But boy, do I seem like a prophet now.:(

ragg

I don't have the time nor inclanation to respond to all that - pop it in bullet points, and i'll have a look

diverdriver

Diddums there you are. Is that easier?:p

jmayo

ragg wrote: »

I don't have the time nor inclanation to respond to all that - pop it in bullet points, and i'll have a look

Brian is that yourself ?
Yep concise nice little slogans and bullet points...
How about ...

• we are building a knowledge economy
• we are investing in a smart green economy
• we have a highly skilled workforce better than everyone else
• we are so special that we must maintain high house prices in order to protect people's investments

Is that more what you had in mind ?

johnathan woss

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

Aaron1

diverdriver wrote: »

Noffles, schadenfreude means taking pleasure in another's misfortune. Which the OP appears to be enjoying. Don't be too offended, there is still a rump of Irish people whose distorted version of patriotism involves disliking Britain and the British for all the usual tiresome oft repeated reasons. YAWN! Negative patriotism I call it. You Brits have your own version, I'm sure.


As for the original, the UK isn't finished. It's in trouble to be sure but the British are very good at getting themselves out of trouble. Would that we were the same.


jmayo's post, I completely agree with. It would be hard to better it. I do believe we are in for tough times. Tougher than people realise. People talk about our recovery. I wonder where it'll come from. It can't come from the construction sector. That's screwed. It will come back a bit but the old days of 40 or 50 tower cranes looming over Dublin's skyline are long gone. The builiding trade will never go back to the way it was.


Manufacturing is in decline and had been in decline for some time. The recovery won't come from there. I very much doubt even a significant reduction in wages will save that sector from more cuts. I worked for a major medical devices manufacturer once. The pay was rubbish. Many people had second jobs to keep themselves going. But right now, the word on the inside is that their new manager is desperatley trying to cut costs further in order to prevent head office from closing the operation and moving it somewhere cheaper. This is a big operation too.
There is a lot of talk of 'high end' jobs being created for graduates. That always annoys me. Most people can't do 'high end' jobs. Most people need low end jobs. Even during the 'Tiger' years many of these 'high end' jobs went to migrants because we didn't have the skill base.


That is so true. Worse still, all too often many of these jobs were filled by migrants because the Irish were simply not available and frankly in my experience the migrants worked harder.



One thing, I don't understand is the enthusiasm for high taxes by some of the posters here. Exactly how are you going to stimulate an economy by taking earned money off people? If there was any lesson learned from the original manufacturing based tiger economy is that low taxes generate more taxes for the simple reason that people with money spend it more. The more the government lowered taxes the greater the revenue from tax. High taxes have a depressing effect on the economy. Many people are already on lower incomes, taking more off them in tax simply reduces the amount they spend in the economy. It's a vicious circle.



I seriously believe that we in this country do not have the basis for recovery. Where is it coming from? What industry? We have no natural resources. The original reason for the start of the upturn was an influx of multinationals attracted to Ireland. They are now in the process of disengaging. What will replace them?




Ten or twelve years ago when all this started rolling. There was a cynical view among my contemporaries that it would all last about ten years. All of us had seen the not so good times and I thought perhaps they were a bit pessimistic. Turns out they were right. I got a job in one of the big multinationals back then. The younger guys and girls were shocked at the attitude of some older people that the plant would be gone in ten years. Actually they were wrong, it was seven years.




I remember telling some of the younger people I worked with the enjoy those times. 'These are the good old days, enjoy them, They won't last'. They didn't believe me. But boy, do I seem like a prophet now.:(

Good post diverdriver, it is very hard to see where any significant upturn in Ireland will come from. Construction is finished for at least a decade, multinationals are cutting back, and manufacturing has been contracting for a long time.

Disagree with your point about tax however. Lower taxes leading to higher revenue became a mantra that the likes of McCreevy and the PDs kept repeating over the years. It was the phony debt lead construction boom that gave temporary higher revenue, not lower taxes. This year there will be approx 33bn taken in taxes - thats only about 23% of GNP! I don't want to pay more taxes, but the budget deficit will have to be bridged with more taxes as well as cuts.

On the UKs problems, it seems to me that the main consequence for Ireland is around emigration. It is still the place that the jobless are most likely to go to, and that safety valve is not really available at the moment. Unfortunately, if the UK starts to recover, it's back to the 80's for Ireland again.

Ibrahimovic91

johnathan woss wrote: »

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

Judging by the numbers I reckon Spain.

RealityCheck

johnathan woss wrote: »

I feel Britain is in deeper long term trouble than us for one simple reason .... it is more densely populated and cannot feed itself.

However, where do you think some of that population will look to move to ?

I dont think I could disagree more, but I suppose stranger things have happened. They are definately not coming here, maybe australia or Canada, like ourselves:p.

RealityCheck

jmayo wrote: »

• we are building a knowledge economy
• we are investing in a smart green economy
• we have a highly skilled workforce better than everyone else
• we are so special that we must maintain high house prices in order to protect people's investments

Its a real pity they didnt actually prepare the economy for such a seismic shift in direction. I think they failed to alert people, like the one time 18 year olds who left education to work on the building sites or the low skilled factory workers who were working in the multinationals. Add that to the fact that there has been a chronic shortage of graduates in science and engineerings courses for years and well the consequences are quite reasonable to expect :rolleyes:. Smart economy for who exactly .

blastman

I love the way politicians, most recently our esteemed Tániste, talk about the knowledge economy like they actually know what it means. I've yet to hear any of them say anything about it beyond the buzzword.

It was plainly obvious to most people with half a brain and one eye open that this bust was coming. I remember having coversations over lunch in the canteen 3-4 years ago as we watched manufacturing jobs go east by the shedload wondering why no-one in government seemed to notice the economy had basically become a giant property pyramid-selling scheme, and precious little else.

maninasia

Healthy and stable economies depends on interlinked factors.
For instance a 'knowledge economy' is built both on manufacturing, R&D and sales channels. Where the govt. and many large govt. led research organisations went wrong is they thought that by funding expensive R&D centres and projects and institutions that this will automatically create world-leading organisations and high paid jobs (actually most of the money just goes into spending on administration of the govt. programs).

A knowledge economy cannot succeed unless it's part of an integrated business strategy. That's why minimum wage being too high IS a problem for the knowledge economy as local and foreign businesses would rather base most of their operations outside of the state and just get govt. funds for as long as the grants last but not really truly develop their business as an Irish organisation giving jobs in manufacturing, quality control, logistics, supplier jobs, sales and marketing jobs in addition to a few highly paid researchers.

I too have seen Ericsson close their base recently and it what it came down too undoubtedly was the engineers were highly paid but not a part of 'core' Ericsson business...it was easy to shut down and reduce the cost as their core business was not based in Ireland. I also know the govt. has given grants a few years ago of 25 million for telecommunication R&D with no result..pfff...gone. Unfortunately the truth is it would be better to abolish many EI and IDA programs and use the money instead to reduce rates and taxes for business. Of course you will never hear Santa campaigning to cancel Xmas..otherwise what would he do?


R&D is not separate from manufacturing nor is sales and marketing. Each feed in to the other. You cannot engineer a good product if you don't have any link the manufacturing base. In the same manner you cannot understand what the market wants if you don't have the experience of selling to the customer. The country needs to develop the SME base and SMEs are excellent in providing a wide range of both low, medium and high paid jobs. What SMEs need more than anything is a lower (read- not lowest, just competitive) cost base to justify putting their core operation in Ireland.

Victor McDade

Noffles wrote: »

The initial post seems to be more about not liking the UK and it's people and hoping it's going to "break" than about the recession both countries are facing...

Personally being British I find the post offensive and pathetic, sadly seems to be the consensus of quite a few Irish people.

I really don't think there are many Irish people with an IQ of 70 or above who have a dislike for Britain, or British people. Everyone else, well, just leave them to it

Victor McDade

creeper1 wrote: »

London as a financial centre which is only a shadow of its formal self.

That's nonsense. London will always be one of the big 3 (with New York and Tokyo) due to its location, it means that the global market is effectively open 24 hours a day. The other European cities trying to develop a financial system at London's expense are Paris and Frankfurt, so far they've not had much success.

ei.sdraob

savemejebas wrote: »

That's nonsense. London will always be one of the big 3 (with New York and Tokyo) due to its location, it means that the global market is effectively open 24 hours a day. The other European cities trying to develop a financial system at London's expense are Paris and Frankfurt, so far they've not had much success.

Never mind them European cities

Shanghai is where its at, China already has 3rd largest economy and still rapidly growing

the ship has sailed to the east it seems and so has the money

Victor McDade

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Never mind them European cities

Shanghai is where its at, China already has 3rd largest economy and still rapidly growing

Not to mention Hong Kong and Singapore...

I agree with what you said there (although I thought China was now No. 2), I was just trying to point out that London's stock market is under no threat due to its location and the fact that other Euro cities aren't doing much of a job in catching up.

kcphoto

Could have been an interesting post and discussion if you hadn't started with such a sweeping and bigoted statement.
Why don't you start your next one with - I hate people but.....

Complete nonsense .....

You won't know when the UK is finished because Ireland will have gone a long time before that!

ei.sdraob

savemejebas wrote: »

Not to mention Hong Kong and Singapore...

I agree with what you said there (although I thought China was now No. 2), I was just trying to point out that London's stock market is under no threat due to its location and the fact that other Euro cities aren't doing much of a job in catching up.

no not yet 2nd but thats the aim for the near future

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/14/china-world-economic-growth

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-03/10/content_7559222.htm