premiership 09/10

automaticflare

Thinking of betting on the top 4 all season. how profitable do you guys reckon it would be to back the top 4 all season and an accy all to win every week???? obviously except the week that one of em may be playing against eachother????

how much return would ye get off this weekend for example???

Saturday 2nd May 2009
Middlesbrough 0-2 Manchester United
Chelsea 3-1 Fulham
Portsmouth 0-3 Arsenal
Liverpool 3-0 Newcastle United

Seems to me like it could be a decent strategy maybe not yielding huge profit but any profit is better than a loss no???

or heres another week???
Arsenal 4 -1 Stoke
Hull 0 - 1 Man Utd
Liverpool 3 - 1 Spurs
Sunderland 2 - 3 Chelsea

mike65

Tricky, typical Big 4 odds are 1.3 and while most weeks they will avoid loosing, getting all 4 to win is somewhat harder. Also the weeks you have chosen above were end of season games where top were playing sides that either had little to play for or were just plain crap. The top teams get stronger as the season progresses relative to the rest so by April/May its often men against boys. Its tighter in August/Sept.

SomethingElse

I wouldn't think there would be any value there either, as mike pointed out there are a lot of weekends where at least one of the top 4 slip up. I would concentrate on finding games where one of the top 4 are playing against a team in good form - there might be some value that route

Trafford Lad

I know at the tail end of last season there was a run of weekends where all 4 won but in my experience at least one of them f**ks up each weekend. But I'd fancy all 4 to win on the first weekend of the prem, in theory they should be ready to go and focussed etc, although over the last 2 seasons United let me down on the opening day drawing with Reading and then Newcastle last season.

ArmaniJeanss

automaticflare wrote: »

a decent strategy?

This would be a losing strategy as the bookies know the Premiership and the Big4 in particular inside out. So you are never going to get a price which represents their true odds of winning.

Arguably you might even get 'extra-bad' odds (as opposed to the usual 5% bookies margin) as the bookies might deliberately shave an extra % or two off the Big4 win prices on weekends where they all have winnable looking games.

orourkeda

If there's profit to be made then it's likely to be paltry. If you consider that Arsenal drew 12 times last season and Liverpool drew 11 times. They did draw twice against each other but even still that leaves 10 and 9 draws respectively.

As mntioned above you will be down 6 fixtures from each club during the season when they play each other before you even start

Singles route may be a touch better off

Bubs101

I'd recommend against it tbh. Look across Europe if you really want to find top team accas. Probably more consistency in a Inter, Man Utd/Chelsea, Real and Barca acca.

I remember reading somewhere last year that the top 4 have only won the same weekend (over the past 5 seasons) 10% of the time , so OP I wouldn't bother.

Fearthelight

Not only do you get terrible odds on big 4 teams playing much weaker sides. You have to consider that they can not only DRAW (most likely) but they can also LOSE.

Two examples at the top of my head last season:

Liverpool V Middlesborough (Liverpool lost 2-0, worst game of the season)
Manchester Utd V Fulham (Man U lost 2-0?)

So not only do you have to worry about the big 4 team drawing, they could also lose! Of course, you could take the DRAW NO BET market to increase your chance of winning but the odds offered wouldn't be worth your while at all!

What I did last season at times, was to bet the underdog as a DRAW NO BET. I won more money than I lost.

dsmythy

It's definitely a loser. Probably slightly better laying them all week in week out. None of the top 4 have strengthened much so far from last year.

mike65

The best bet last season would have been Liverpool draw no bet (lost only two games) but you'd have needed to be a big time player to make any money so poor were the odds.