Ireland set to go bust, claims economic historian

ionix5891

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ireland-set-to-go-bust-claims-economic-historian-1692673.html

A dire warning that the Republic is a prime candidate to go bust has come from one of the world's leading economic historians.

"The idea that countries don't go bust is a joke," said Niall Ferguson, Harvard professor and author of The Ascent of Money.

"The debt trap may be about to spring" he said, "for countries that have created large stimulus packages in order to stimulate their economies."

His chosen prime candidate to go bust is "Ireland, followed by Italy and Belgium, and UK is not too far behind".

very disturbing! i've a lot of respect for this guy


his book "The accent of money" and the recent 5 part channel4 documentary with same name where excellent (and well worth watching)

Small Change

I would imagine the the 'accent' of money has a decidedly D4 twang to it

On a serious note though, it is a cause for concern
It's not long since the idea of established banks going bust would have been laughed at....

Highsider

Ah sure we'll be fine. Anyone for pints?

NewDubliner

ionix5891 wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ireland-set-to-go-bust-claims-economic-historian-1692673.html

Let me guess, the immediate remedy is a mass-sell of of state utilities to civic-minded, newspaper-owning oligarchs?

Martyr

anybody know when this will happen?

NewDubliner

Martyr wrote: »

anybody know when this will happen?

Maybe check the original article:

* This article is from The Belfast Telegraph

Things are bad all round, it helps people feel better thinking that the other guy is going to get it.

ionix5891

Martyr wrote: »

anybody know when this will happen?

watch the bond markets, they are already jittery

Eireannach

Never, if we don't let it

ionix5891

Eireannach wrote: »

Never, if we don't let it

considering we are still borrowing money like crazy to keep the public sector and dole watered...

i dunno i hope the country doesnt go bankrupt, but at this stage nothing will surprise me

Martyr

NewDubliner wrote:

Things are bad all round, it helps people feel better thinking that the other guy is going to get it.

But Niall Ferguson doesn't work for the belfast telegraph?

He also mentioned Italy, Belgium and the UK, so I don't know why you'd suggest journalists at the belfast telegraph would be smug with the news ireland will go bust.

just wondering if i can place a bet at paddy powers when it will happen :P

Martyr

there was a better story on that site about a Blonde parade

ionix5891

Martyr wrote: »

But Niall Ferguson doesn't work for the belfast telegraph?

He also mentioned Italy, Belgium and the UK, so I don't know why you'd suggest journalists at the belfast telegraph would be smug with the news ireland will go bust.

just wondering if i can place a bet at paddy powers when it will happen :P

last i checked his Scottish

if that makes any difference

Myggel

He's a historian, I'd take that opinion of his with a barrel of salt!

nesf

He's an economic historian, not just a historian, he's done major work on the Rothschild family, and national economic histories as well as the Ascent of Money (which is worth picking up if anyone wants to get their head around how modern finance developed and what the different parts of it do).

He has a point in that it is quite possible for a developed Western country like Ireland, the UK, Italy or Belgium to go bust and he is quite right to put Ireland near the top of the list for developed countries most like to go bust. The think people should remember that being the most likely of a bunch of developed countries to go bust is not the same as the likes of Argentina which is top of the riskiest developing country list.

He's quite correct in that article saying that we won't see a repeat of the Great Depression. There is far too much difference in policy etc between now and then for that to happen.

ardmacha

"The debt trap may be about to spring" he said, "for countries that have created large stimulus packages in order to stimulate their economies."

This would be more convincing, except that Ireland hasn't really adopted a large stimulus package. Now trying to tax yourself out of a recession may be equally unwise, but it is not quite the same thing.

ionix5891

Myggel wrote: »

He's a historian, I'd take that opinion of his with a barrel of salt!

those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it :rolleyes:

silverharp

nesf wrote: »

He's quite correct in that article saying that we won't see a repeat of the Great Depression. There is far too much difference in policy etc between now and then for that to happen.

The US was a creditor country at the start of the Geat Depression, I find it absolutely terrifying the policy responses to this crises , its untested and I see no reason why it should actually work.

Hasschu

Niall Ferguson is a fine Scottish lad who writes books that are best sellers. As an entertainer I find no fault with him. It is his predictions that I find fault with particularly as they relate to Ireland. We are a hardbitten bunch who are not likely to cave in at the first sign of hardship. Our gov't has let us down and continue to disappoint on a daily basis. We will change our gov't and impose the measures needed to recover from this debacle. We know that the knowhow we need is not home grown but we are intelligent enough to go to the ECB for advice and assistance. We will implement the ECB recommendations and accept their assistance and repayment terms. We will not point fingers at all and sundry or cry in our beer we will behave like the courageous and independent people that we are. We will drag into a proper court of law the wrongdoers irrespective of their party affiliations or position in the society. And we will never, ever, ever vote for crooks again.

Daithinski

Hasschu wrote: »

...And we will never, ever, ever vote for crooks again.

Unfortunately I'd say at least 25% of "us" (not me) will be voting for the FF crooks today.