Why and how would there be a change of government before the next general election?

Charlie-Bravo

Excuse my ignorance on this issue, and I know that the local elections are coming up, but what needs to happen in order for this current governement to change to a 'rainbow' type coalition (or other) before the next planned general election?

Souljacker

The current government was formed through a coalition of FF, Greens and independents.

FF won 78 seats, the greens 6 and there were 5 independents.

This made a coalition of 88 TDs, 5 over the necessary 83 to have an overall majority in the Dail. This was seen by a clever move by Bertie because the Greens or all the independents couldn't individually pull out of the government and make it fall.

However since the last general election in 2007 there has been 4 major changes. Séamus Brennan (FF) and Tony Gregory (Ind) both sadly died meaning 2 by elections need to be held on Friday to determin who the new TDs will be. (FF is highly unlikely to win either of these). And the TDs Finian McGrath (Ind) and Joe Behan (FF) both left over the medical cards issue.
That means the current majority is down to 84 meaning it’s now within the power of the greens or 2 governmental TDs to pull down the government by pulling out and the opposition calling for a vote of no confidence.

This would result in either a new government being formed with the current TDs or the far more likely calling of a general election.

Charlie-Bravo

Thanks for that info Souljacker.

I have to say, it is very interesting how it has come to the current circumstances. Passings away, TD's leaving parties etc.

I had some impression that local elections had an influence, and with all the media hype I wasn't seeing the issue on the by-election. So, 84 seats at the moment in agreement on the current government (sort of) - and all it takes is a couple of guys in greens or indo's to do the deed!

So, just to clarify, when Joe Behan (Mr Wicklow himself) climbed down, did he leave the party but sit exists as a TD? And would he be an independant now then?

Souljacker

astrofluff wrote: »

Thanks for that info Souljacker.

I have to say, it is very interesting how it has come to the current circumstances. Passings away, TD's leaving parties etc.

I had some impression that local elections had an influence, and with all the media hype I wasn't seeing the issue on the by-election. So, 84 seats at the moment in agreement on the current government (sort of) - and all it takes is a couple of guys in greens or indo's to do the deed!

So, just to clarify, when Joe Behan (Mr Wicklow himself) climbed down, did he leave the party but sit exists as a TD? And would he be an independent now then?

No problem.

Joe Behan's still a TD but he's now an Independent who sits in the opposition benches.

The local and Euro elections could have a bearing on the government. If FF or/and the Greens do really badly FF back benchers, independents or could pull a Joe Behan and leave the government (out of fear of never being elected again). Or the Greens could get jittery and decide by pulling down an unpopular government they'll earn some brownie points with the election.

If FF have an absolute disaster on Friday the public pressure could become too much pressure all it would take is a couple of FF or Green backbenchers to revolt.

Dalfiatach

Souljacker is correct. BUT, if the Greens or a few FF backbenchers don't switch sides and Cowen can continue to get those 84 TDs (FF, PDs, Greens and Indos) to support him, then barring more deaths this Government could continue till 2012 (when an election must happen, it's in the Constitution, they can't go more than 5 years without a General Election) and there is little that anyone can do about it.

Putting pressure on some FF backbenchers who are locally popular but aren't too closely linked to Bertie or Biffo to defect is the most likely route. Some of them would stand a good chance of survival as Jackie Healy-Rae "Independent FF" types. The Greens would be likely to lose almost all their seats in a General Election, so I doubt they'll risk it.

The Government strategy is to grimly hang in there and pray for an international recovery next year to end the recession, then present themselves in 2012 as the team that stuck with the hard job and saved the country. Everyone who wants them gone has to figure out some way to get 2 or 3 of those 84 to switch sides.

mikedublin

I'm hoping some Fianna Fail TD's have their eye on who will take over after Brian Cowen is gone, and how they can distance themselves now from the current shambles. The best outcome would be one or two good FF TD's to mount a challenge and rally some others around them.
Once Cowen is gone they can help Fianna Fail re-connect with the ordinary people and revive the party.