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AIB or BOI

  • 25-05-2009 7:02pm
    #1
    liberal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 291 ✭✭


    My thinking:

    there is a 3/1 chance of AIB being nationalised, if their share price "returned" to 2007 highs one would realise a 20/1 profit.

    simple decision if one likes to gamble

    the question is BOI or AIB?

    Of course the ultimate question is FF or FG, but for the sake of conversation lets assume AIB or BOI aren't nationalised anytime soon.

    Also any thoughts on investing in Ryanair holdings, anything in the pipe lines that I don't know about? I'm thinking that O Leary will defeat the EU trade commision next time round and will have a majority in Aer Lingus
    within 3 years

    that was my attempt at humour by the way


Comments

  • #2
    marathonic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,684 ✭✭✭marathonic


    You may be right about the 1 in 3 chance of full nationalisation. However, I think there is a very high chance that they will be partially nationalised.

    In my opinion (and I could be way off the mark here), the chances of seeing the 2007 highs again are way less than 20/1. There's probably going to be a hell of a lot of restrictions placed on the banks by the NAMA legislation.

    The 2007 highs were based on shares with large dividends, high growth rates and a loan book secured on properties with decreasing LTV's. With increasing LTV's (due to decreasing properties values) and the restrictions that will likely be placed on dividends and growth rates, I don't see the banks hitting the 2007 highs for a hell of a long time, if ever.

    Why take the risk when there are so many high quality shares out there?


  • #3
    baldeagle1999
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4 ✭baldeagle1999


    pray tell more Marathonic... which (irish) shares do you think are 'high quality' these days?


  • #4
    pirelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭pirelli


    baldeagle1999 wrote: »
    pray tell more Marathonic... which (irish) shares do you think are 'high quality' these days?

    Tsk, You have just started and you get owned within minutes.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055571863


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