GIRO Stage 12 : ITT

niceonetom

Predictions. Give me them.

This looks like a monster course for a TT. I hadn't actually realised how serious the climbs are until looking at this link. It's neither a pure uphill TT that will favour the climbing specialists, nor is anything like the kind of parcours that a normal TT specialist would like. People don't even seem sure what kind of bike to use...



It's too long. It's definitely too hilly. It's hot. Today could decide the whole thing. I love it.

Who's your money on?

ednwireland

god that is a monster

whats the tin of hammerite for ?

Muller_1

Think Levi will be hard to beat today

Caroline_ie

> would Armstrong + rest day top up do well on that?

scottreynolds

Money still has to be on Levi - after the Tour Of California TT he looked good and that was hilly as well.

Carlos Sastre will consolidate I think today and not lose too much time -- he is still the dark horse.

Not really sure about the other GC contenders but I expect LA to have a good day as well.

Di Luca expects to lose minutes he said.

TinyExplosions

Think Levi or maybe Menchov to do well today. I suspect they'll use standard bikes, but also think Di Lucca won't lose a huge amount of time. The more I see him ride, the more I think there's something a bit suspect about him....

Izoard

This has Lance written all over it.

Even though Horner is gone, I doubt Johan would dare tell him to "take it handy" so he can be fresh to drag Levi up the next mountain.

I don't think he's ready to take out a mountain top stage (little support for a start), so this is his day.

niceonetom

ednwireland wrote: »

whats the tin of hammerite for ?

oops. Link fixed.

I think Sastre might go for it.

Junior

Missed the last few days following the Rás - where's Rogers overall ?

Caroline_ie

Pos Rider Country Team Time Gap
1 Danilo DI LUCA ITA LPR 48h51'28" 0
2 Denis MENCHOV RUS RAB 0 1'20"
3 Michael ROGERS AUS THR 0 1'33"
4 Levi LEIPHEIMER USA AST 0 1'40"
5 Franco PELLIZOTTI ITA LIQ 0 1'53"
6 Carlos SASTRE ESP CTT 0 1'54"
7 Ivan BASSO ITA LIQ 0 2'03"
8 Thomas LOVKVIST SUE THR 0 2'12"
9 David ARROYO ESP GCE 0 2'35"
10 Gilberto SIMONI ITA SDA 0 2'58"

Junior

I'm going to go for Rogers and Basso..

biker_joe

I read somewhere that the descents are too Difficult and technicial for TT bikes, so it looks like riders will be using Road bikes .... but it will be interesting to see who is willing to take a gamble by using a TT bike !!

Chips Lovell

Levi "Thrilling is My Middle Name" Leipheimer. But not by as big a margin as he may hope. Reckon Sastre, Menchov and Rogers will put in strong times. Today's Basso's big test and I've no idea how well he'll do. Most likely to be sandbagging = Di Luca. I've a suspicion that 2007 Di Luca is here, rather than 2008.

I can't remember a TT I've looked forward to more. Shame I have to wait till tonight to see it.

E@gle.

biker_joe wrote: »

I read somewhere that the descents are too Difficult and technicial for TT bikes, so it looks like riders will be using Road bikes .... but it will be interesting to see who is willing to take a gamble by using a TT bike !!

maybe road bikes with added tt bars i heard Sean kelly saying yesterday.

Caroline_ie

I put 2 Euro on Raam!

Chips Lovell

E@gle. wrote: »

maybe road bikes with added tt bars i heard Sean kelly saying yesterday.

I'd say that's the set up most guys will opt for. If some people do go for TT bikes we could see some Rasmussen style thrills and spills.

cantalach

Strange that nobody's mentioning Cancellara (or is this thread focussing only on the GC contenders?). His work in the mountains for Schleck and Saste last July, followed by his stellar performance on the hilly Olympic TT course against Contador and Leipheimer showed us that the man can more than handle a climb or two!

TinyExplosions

el tonto wrote: »

Levi "Thrilling is My Middle Name" Leipheimer. But not by as big a margin as he may hope. Reckon Sastre, Menchov and Rogers will put in strong times. Today's Basso's big test and I've no idea how well he'll do. Most likely to be sandbagging = Di Luca. I've a suspicion that 2007 Di Luca is here, rather than 2008.

I can't remember a TT I've looked forward to more. Shame I have to wait till tonight to see it.

Glad I'm not the only suspicious one!

biker_joe

Caroline_ie wrote: »

I put 2 Euro on Raam!

If I were you I'd put more than 2 Euro on Raam, not only did he finish his race last night in the swords league.....

He WON it !!!


Biker Joe.

Chips Lovell

cantalach wrote: »

Strange that nobody's mentioning Cancellara (or is this thread focussing only on the GC contenders?). His work in the mountains for Schleck and Saste last July, followed by his stellar performance on the hilly Olympic TT course against Contador and Leipheimer showed us that the man can more than handle a climb or two!

Not his kind of course. Not the same rider as he was last July. And more importantly, he's already abandoned the race.

DirkVoodoo

I'm gonna jump on the Levi bandwagon too. All of Lance's talk has to mean something, he has been saying Astana's work has been building up to this.

Would like to see Basso do well also.

Sastre looked good earlier on in the week, as did Menchov. I know they are good climbers but know nothing about them in a time trial (I believe this will be my 3rd TT that I have watched).

cantalach

el tonto wrote: »

Not his kind of course. Not the same rider as he was last July. And more importantly, he's already abandoned the race.

When did he abandon??? He was dragging the peleton along the sea front with 5km to go yesterday and there's no mention of it on cyclingnews. That said, I was wondering why Paddy Power weren't offering any odds for him...

DirkVoodoo

biker_joe wrote: »

If I were you I'd put more than 2 Euro on Raam, not only did he finish his race last night in the swords league.....

He WON it !!!


Biker Joe.

That was a quick zero to hero move. Now I can't sell the movie rights (I was writing a screenplay based on his depressing race reports). No one wants to see the guy come good after 10 minutes on the screen.

Chips Lovell

cantalach wrote: »

When did he abandon???

Last night.

cantalach

el tonto wrote: »

Last night.

Were you talking to him or something? I'm not seeing it on the news sites and some online gambling sites (albeit not Paddy Power) are still offering odds on him. Velonews even has an interview with him conducted last evening and there's no mention of him pulling out. Wouldn't it be a bit like the High Priest retiring suddenly on the eve of Yom Kippur?

Chips Lovell

Link

cantalach wrote: »

Wouldn't it be a bit like the High Priest retiring suddenly on the eve of Yom Kippur?

Wouldn't be the first time we've seen him do something unexpected.

cantalach

el tonto wrote: »

Link

Wouldn't be the first tiem we've seen him do something unexpected.

Thanks for that. Somebody should tell the gambling sites so that they'll stop taking bets that can never be won! Actually, maybe not...at least one of them is offering head-to-head odds against other riders. That's an opportunity to make an easy few euro. Just google and you'll find them.

biker_joe

General classification after stage 11

137 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 1.40.56

Chips Lovell

cantalach wrote: »

Thanks for that. Somebody should tell the gambling sites so that they'll stop taking bets that can never be won! Actually, maybe not...at least one of them is offering head-to-head odds against other riders. That's an opportunity to make an easy few euro. Just google and you'll find them.

Would there be something in the small print about not honouring bets if the rider is a DNS?

cantalach

el tonto wrote: »

Would there be something in the small print about not honouring bets if the rider is a DNS?

Yeah, possibly. I'm not really a gambler. I only look to the gambling sites to see who they think is going to do well. Every now and again I take a punt when I think they've got it badly wrong (as they did when they were offering Cadel Evans at 28/1 for the TdF this time two years ago - I went each way and made a tidy sum).

AstraMonti

They seem that they will be using aero bars on road bikes. (watching a bit of Rai Sport)

ROK ON

el tonto wrote: »

Would there be something in the small print about not honouring bets if the rider is a DNS?

(Off topic, but to answer) - Would not be necessary. Bets are not legally enforcable in contract law. On that basis, a bookmaker can decide what they like - there is no obligation to pay out on a bet.

Chips Lovell

cantalach wrote: »

Yeah, possibly. I'm not really a gambler. I only look to the gambling sites to see who they think is going to do well. Every now and again I take a punt when I think they've got it badly wrong (as they did when they were offering Cadel Evans at 28/1 for the TdF this time two years ago - I went each way and made a tidy sum).

Not a gambler myself either but any time I've looked at online bookmakers I've always thought that the people setting the odds don't know enough about cycling. I get the impression they just go by previous results in grand tours and don't track riders' form through the season.

cantalach

ROK ON wrote: »

(Off topic, but to answer) - Would not be necessary. Bets are not legally enforcable in contract law. On that basis, a bookmaker can decide what they like - there is no obligation to pay out on a bet.

(Continuing off topic, sorry...) We're talking about online gambling here so it depends on the jurisdiction in which the bet is considered to be taking place. This is usually specified somewhere in the T&C of the website. Betting is legislated for to a much greater extent in some jurisdictions.

AstraMonti

Beautiful race, i really enjoyed it. Now i have to stay until 9 to do the work i wasn't doing while watching it

Caroline_ie

I lost 2Euro I had put on Sastre ... balls

I had really great odds too ... I would have wont 148Euro ... fecking spaniards

Dodge

Good ride by Deignan today (35th). Dan martin finished second on a mountain finish stage in Catalunya too.

Giro shaping up well. I constantly underestimate Menchov. He's easily strong enough to hold on to most of the other GC boys in the mouontains to come. Sastre is probably the best climber about (followed by di Luca)

niceonetom

@Astra - nice sig!

cantalach

Caroline_ie wrote: »

I lost 2Euro I had put on Sastre ... balls

I had really great odds too ... I would have wont 148Euro ... fecking spaniards

You got 74/1 on Sastre? Who in God's name was crazy enough to offer that?

Diarmuid

TinyExplosions wrote: »

The more I see him ride, the more I think there's something a bit suspect about him....

True, and a guy with a chequered past to put it mildly.

Caroline_ie

cantalach wrote: »

You got 74/1 on Sastre? Who in God's name was crazy enough to offer that?

Got that in the morning from Betfair.
Went down to 25/1 by the start of the race.

ednwireland

wonder what odds you would have got on todays winner some finsh lots of bumping and barging you need balls the size of beach balls in those sprints

CAVENDISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! he may b e arrogant but talk abot delivering the goods

bcmf

great finish the eventual winner seemed to be getting faster as the line approached.Although the second place really stormed up to him.3Certainly a lot of handbagging going on.