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advice on a bet...!

  • 15-05-2009 5:47pm
    #1
    x in the city
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭


    I have this outlandish acc and just man u/barca [need a draw] and everton flopping at wembley [need everton not to lose] away from around 7k

    any options available.?

    I can back chelski @ 1.8

    and man u/barca [to win] @ 1.33

    but would have to lay thousands...seems mad


Comments

  • #2
    twerg_85
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭twerg_85


    Manu/barca draw is about 3.6
    Everton not to lose is about 2.15

    These odds say that there's about a 13% chance of these two things happening, or you'd get about 7.74 on both happening.

    You can guarantee about a €800 profit at this stage, but it's still a long shot.


  • #3
    freshtodeath
    Closed Accounts Posts: 36 ✭freshtodeath


    x in the city wrote: »
    I have this outlandish acc and just man u/barca [need a draw] and everton flopping at wembley [need everton not to lose] away from around 7k

    any options available.?

    I can back chelski @ 1.8

    and man u/barca [to win] @ 1.33

    but would have to lay thousands...seems mad

    My advice would be to leave the Everton/Chelsea match until after you know what has happened in United/Barca.

    If you lay the draw in Utd/Barca, if you lay it for 1900 you are guaranteed that amount if the game is won by either team. If the draw does come through, your max profit off the accumulator will be 1965*, which you can lay off to guarantee around 900 profit.

    If you play it right you will guarantee yourself at least 900, it's up to you then whether you consider it worth the risk to not interfere with it by laying it off etc...
    If you don't touch the United/Barca match and it ends up a draw, you can guarantee yourself 3,000 by backing Chelsea for 4k, but again it's whether you consider the risk of not touching the united game is worth it...

    Best of luck anyway, it's a big dilemma. Needing the money myself, I'd probably lay it off, my attitude is one of "any profit is a welcome profit" and €900 would go a long way, it's down to whether you think that yourself really


    * Odds on laying the draw are 3.65 on betfair, meaning you would be liable to pay 2.65 on the betters stake - (7,000 - (2.65 x 1,900)) = 1965


  • #4
    Warper
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    twerg_85 wrote: »
    Manu/barca draw is about 3.6
    Everton not to lose is about 2.15

    These odds say that there's about a 13% chance of these two things happening, or you'd get about 7.74 on both happening.

    You can guarantee about a €800 profit at this stage, but it's still a long shot.

    If these are the correct odds you can calculate what you are up so far and work accordingly.

    7000 / 2.15 = 3259
    3259 / 3.60 = 905

    So you are up 905 at the moment - tbh i would leave it for the moment. There is a good chance the CL final will be a draw - based on last years semi and this year's semi. Leave it and then put 3.5k - 4k on Chelsea @ 1.8 (if it works out obv).


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