TNS/MRBI Poll 15.05.09 - FF Meltdown Continues....

Stroke Politics

In tomorrow's Irish Times.....

FG 38% (+6)
FF 21% (-1)
LAB 20% (-4)
SF 9% (nc)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 9%

Government Satisfaction 10% (-4).

Happy days - Election and heatwave in July.....!

galwayrush

Still 21% would vote FF.:eek: Shocking.

GSF

The 1st poll to show FF in 3rd place will be interesting.

Badabing

Labour down 4 now that is shocking! Joan Burton id say is the reason.

GSF

Stroke Politics wrote: »

In tomorrow's Irish Times.....

FF 21% (-1)


Government Satisfaction 10% (-4).

11% are unhappy with the government but want more of the same.

slippy wicket

The beginning of the end for our morally bankrupt so-called government. Just give us one chance to do to them with the ballot box what they have done to us with their inept and sometimes insane policies.

Mr.Micro

Will the 21% for FF make a difference in the local elections? I think not. I see the same old faces on the posters and one or two new ones but generally the same ugly mugs, with the FF posters higher up the on the street posts, to avoid being torn down I guess.

dave-higgz

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Will the 21% for FF make a difference in the local elections? I think not. I see the same old faces on the posters and one or two new ones but generally the same ugly mugs, with the FF posters higher up the on the street posts, to avoid being torn down I guess.

Not all of them

Bottle_of_Smoke

Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

turgon

Remember that FF being up at 21% is partly FGs faults for not capitalizing on FFs poor record.

Dr Galen

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

i'd say it's probably because the intial good press that Gilmore received, notable late last year has run dry. Labour have been failing to come out with any strong new policies, whereas FG has had things like the new Health proposals recently getting headlines.

Stroke Politics

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

i'd say it's probably because the intial good press that Gilmore received, notable late last year has run dry. Labour have been failing to come out with any strong new policies, whereas FG has had things like the new Health proposals recently getting headlines.

Gilmore is up 7%, highest satisfaction rating of any of the party leaders. At 20%, Labour would probably be in the 30/35 seat mark in a General Election. Labour need Howlin, Rabbitte, Quinn to push themselves out there into the limelight a bit more, Joan Burton can be a bit off-putting, even if she is a very effectiv opposition spokesperson, and they LP need to draft a few more policies....

Melange

Never before in the history of the Irish State has Fine Gael managed to secure more seats than Fianna Fail. Looks like history's going to be made in the next GE.

As for the upcoming elections: it'll be interesting to see the internal chaos in Fianna Fail following the near-certain bloodbath. Does anyone here think that a FF coup will be a certainty in 2009?

mike65

I'd say there is every chance that Cowen will be FFs briefest leader by some distance. Its hard to see anything other than a bloodbath in June, at which point a lot of back-benchers will loose their nerve. Biffo calling a snap general election to galvanise the troops would be 'harry-karry' and I imagine FG and Lab wouldn't really want one this year either.

dave-higgz

If Fianna Fail get screwed enough in the next general election could we see FF and FG form into one party?? or will we at least see FF as the third largest party??

am I too ahead of myself on the first one??

Melange

dave-higgz wrote: »

If Fianna Fail get screwed enough in the next general election could we see FF and FG form into one party?? or will we at least see FF as the third largest party??

am I too ahead of myself on the first one??

Yes, I definitely think you're way too ahead of yourself there!

You can only understand the bizarre, anachronistic and somewhat unsettling mutual hatred between FF and FG if you speak to their grassroots and footsoldiers. It almost invariably involves them coming out with the same old civil war guff about their grandfather and the civil war, etc etc. I've even noticed this in their youth memberships. Sad, really.

This is why hell will freeze over before those two parties merge.

jank

So one in five are still going to vote FF regardless....

Expect a bloodbath in June but they will still cling to power for as long as they can. They know they cant win the election Cowen or no Cowen. So they will try and reach the full term... sad really.

Unless there is a push from inside the party which I just cant see right now.

FG are close enough to a majority judging by those figures. Things on the ground might be very different though. The only poll that matters is the one on voting day. FF will hold out just in the rural areas but say goodbye to them in the urbans areas.

Mr.Micro

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

I think its a snobbery thing with many of the Irish voters who perhaps see Labour as a bit lefty and below them.

Melange

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I think its a snobbery thing with many of the Irish voters who perhaps see Labour as a bit lefty and below them.

God no, I wouldn't think that's the case at all. Most likely it's because of the soft, floating pro-opposition vote tending towards FG at the expense of Labour due to FG's headline-grabbing healthcare reform policies.

mike65

10-12% is about the extent of Labours natural constituency anything above is a bonus.

brianthebard

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I think its a snobbery thing with many of the Irish voters who perhaps see Labour as a bit lefty and below them.

Personally don't think this is the case at all, Labour has taken steps towards the centre and made themselves more middle class friendly.

Souljacker

brianthebard wrote: »

Personally don't think this is the case at all, Labour has taken steps towards the centre and made themselves more middle class friendly.

Definitely. Didn't the February poll show FG had a bigger support base amongst the working class than Labour?

Labour's belief in universal free 3rd level education is a sap to the middle classes at least FG are making proposals in education for real equality. A graduate tax seems more than fair to me, it would not only insure proper funding for our Unis and Institutes but would also free up some desperately needed money for the early years and primary education sectors.
If we want equality of opportunity for our children this is where the money should go. Paying 3rd level fees is the prime example of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted and for the life of me I can’t understand labours stance.

Sully

Just the bits that were missed in this thread..

Regarding satisfaction with the way party leaders are doing their jobs, Brian Cowen scores just 18%, a fall of six since February.

Enda Kenny is up three at 33%, while Eamon Gilmore has the highest satisfaction rating at 51%, up 7.

John Gormley at 25% is down four and Gerry Adams at 34% is up two.

Dalfiatach

I'd say the Labour fall - and FGs rise - is down to a few things.

They've been great at opposing everything but not actually saying what they would do different, while FG have been quietly and steadily churning out good solid policies on public sector waste & reform, how to handle the banks, the health service etc.

FG now have a top class economic team in Richard Bruton and George Lee, that people can have some confidence in. At least the two of them clearly know what they are talking about, especially compared to Lenihan and Coughlan :eek:

There's a lot of anger out there at public-sector unions and their messing, and Labour trying to defend what private sector workers see as sheer greed and waste and overpay isn't going down well

The voters want FF out, but Labour are still sitting on the fence and everyone knows that if FF + Lab had 83 seats after the election then the two of them will jump into bed together in a second. There's a danger that if you vote Labour, you end up with FF - again.

All this is steadily pushing the wavering anti-FF voter into taking a deep breath and jumping over to FG, even if they might not be particularly fond of FG. At least you know you are getting a) a decent economic team and b) definitely not FF and c) Reilly instead of Harney in Health. You also get Enda, but again he might be a charisma-free zone but he does seem to be able to pick a good team, organise and motivate them. So he can't be all bad, and as long as he lets Richard and George get on with fixing the economy then he can play at being leader all he wants.

I think this is the sort of thing that is slowly going through people's minds. Well, it's what went through mine over the last few months anyway...

nesf

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

Gilmore's rating went up the most to over 51%. It's a problem of a lack of depth in the party in my opinion. An excellent frontman not being matched by the second and third speaker in interviews from the party. Joan Gilmore being a particular culprit.

InFront

I think that after the local and European election, the biggest political question shall be how long will the greens retain their support for FF. They are most likely to secure seats in the next cabinet by pulling out before they are pulled out, and this must be running through their minds at the moment.

The June 5th elections will be very telling, but I would not be surprised to see this government still operating past the summer and on until the next budget. A lot depends on the Greens in this regard.

Sully

Gilmore is a better speaker then Kenny and speaks much more freely. What he says warms with the peoples hearts and minds, which I think is starting to wear off. People were looking for someone for ages and Labour and Gilmore were there. Jumping on anything that would get them support. Gilmore was down here recently speaking about Waterford Crystal - which will score him points as its an issue that is so close to peoples hearts and there is a lot of anger with FFs lack of support about it. Gilmore is a much better communicator which is what the people see. Kenny doesn't have that spark but offers a very strong leadership skill set and presents an excellent party, picking the best squad. Gilmore is an instant hit with the people, while Kenny is slower to grow on people who don't actually see the man for what he really can offer and do for the country if he was elected. I guess you cant have everything!

Labour knock the government on everything. There never happy. There problem is; they offer nothing in return. There polices, compared to FG, are not great. There team overall is not as strong as FG. FG have the new support because not only are they hitting the government on issues that matter, there offering alternative plans on what they knock. There not jumping on everything and they will happily give the government a thumbs up on anything they consider good - no matter how small. Some of what FF are doing is based on FG plans. This explains why the party is doing better then Labour. I haven't covered the fact Labour still, to this day, wont rule out going into government with FF. Gilmore knows this is their weak point, but wants to be in power so will take the hit.

In short: Gilmore is a better speaker and presenter, knows what will make people happy and targets that. Not a strong leader, offers a poor team and will do anything to get into government. Kenny is a good speaker, but not as good as Gilmore. Very strong leadership and offers an excellent party and troops to pull this country together.

Iv left out Gerry Adams & Co. as there smaller party's who, at the moment, are not worth talking about in depth.

eoinbn

GSF wrote: »

The 1st poll to show FF in 3rd place will be interesting.

That would of been the last poll- Labour 24%, FF 22%.

nesf

brianthebard wrote: »

Personally don't think this is the case at all, Labour has taken steps towards the centre and made themselves more middle class friendly.

Agreed, the only thing Labour haven't shaken is their closeness to the unions but in times like these that's not a bad thing for quite a few of the electorate so perhaps not an unwise move to try and keep that with their move to the centre.

nkay1985

It's going to be very interesting to see just how the anti-FF feeling is going to translate into real losses in terms of seats come June 5th. A lot of people seem to forget just how disastrous the 2004 Local Elections were for FF. I remember talking to Martin Cullen the day of them as poll results were coming in and him basically saying they were getting a hammering and that he'd have to be on defending it!

Here is the overview of the 2004 Locals. FF lost 80 seats! 80! They were edged out in lots of constituencies. So, while they won't be turning those near losses around this time out, I wonder just how many seats are there to be lost? That will be very interesting to see on June 6th.

Scofflaw

One minor point - ZANU-FF is neither funny nor clever, and it is extremely unoriginal. Don't use it.

immoderately,
Scofflaw

nesf

nkay1985 wrote: »

Here is the overview of the 2004 Locals. FF lost 80 seats! 80! They were edged out in lots of constituencies. So, while they won't be turning those near losses around this time out, I wonder just how many seats are there to be lost? That will be very interesting to see on June 6th.

Bear in mind also the abolition of the Dual Mandate allowing TDs and Senators to also hold Local Councillor seats in 2003, it saw a lot of "household names" being replaced with new faces which only made things worse I imagine for FF in the election. Cork North Central lost all but one of it's elected councillors and all the new faces lost a nice few percentiles of the vote when 2004 came around versus their predecessors performances, with the Socialist Mick Barry turning a 4% First preference showing into a 17% one in that time.

nkay1985

nesf wrote: »

Bear in mind also the abolition of the Dual Mandate allowing TDs and Senators to also hold Local Councillor seats in 2003, it saw a lot of "household names" being replaced with new faces which only made things worse I imagine for FF in the election. Cork North Central lost all but one of it's elected councillors and all the new faces lost a nice few percentiles of the vote when 2004 came around versus their predecessors performances, with the Socialist Mick Barry turning a 4% First preference showing into a 17% one in that time.

Yeah so a lot of those "new faces" from last time have now had four years to build up their profile locally. Granted, this will be more than evened out by the anti-FF sentiment that is present, but I just get this feeling that the Locals will end up being a lot better for FF than some people expect. Not a meltdown anyway.

nesf

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah so a lot of those "new faces" from last time have now had four years to build up their profile locally. Granted, this will be more than evened out by the anti-FF sentiment that is present, but I just get this feeling that the Locals will end up being a lot better for FF than some people expect. Not a meltdown anyway.

FF are going to get massacred I think. The 2004 thing affected all major parties and benefited the smaller parties the most. This time around there's a hunger to punish FF for the last two budgets and quite a few FF councillors and MEPs are on the way out, generally "2nd seaters".

nkay1985

nesf wrote: »

FF are going to get massacred I think. The 2004 thing affected all major parties and benefited the smaller parties the most. This time around there's a hunger to punish FF for the last two budgets and quite a few FF councillors and MEPs are on the way out, generally "2nd seaters".

Yeah, you might be right. But FG made a big gain last time out. Presumably in areas where they had been knocking on the door. I don't though. I just don't think it'll be that straight-forward. Hope I'm wrong.

nesf

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah, you might be right. But FG made a big gain last time out. Presumably in areas where they had been knocking on the door. I don't though. I just don't think it'll be that straight-forward. Hope I'm wrong.

Well massacre here is a relative term. I mean, FF could lose 2/3rds of their seats and they'd only be down to Labour 2004 level of representation. They can take a big hit and still stand a decent chance of being the second biggest party at local level.

SF did extremely well in 2004 and it'll be interesting to see if they can hold onto and build on their gains. Labour and FG should make up ground and what happens to the Greens might shape their future policy regarding being in Government. They've only 18 seats at local level, FF have 302. It wouldn't take much to knock the Greens almost totally out of local politics and that I imagine would have serious repercussions come the next party conference and with their strange democratic system within the party the party could easily vote to pull out of Government (the Greens are set up so it is the party rank and file who make these decisions, not the Parliamentary wing of the party which is a risky and odd way of doing business).

nesf

More details in today's Irish Times: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0515/1224246568699.html?digest=1

An interesting statistic. 93% of Green supporters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance.

nkay1985

nesf wrote: »

More details in today's Irish Times: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0515/1224246568699.html?digest=1

An interesting statistic. 93% of Green supporters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance.

Wow, that is a very interesting stat. We could see a general election very, very soon. I don't think FG would necessarily want that.

jank

I think FG would like to have FF in power just a bit longer maybe for one more budget.....

jmcc

nesf wrote: »

Well massacre here is a relative term. I mean, FF could lose 2/3rds of their seats and they'd only be down to Labour 2004 level of representation. They can take a big hit and still stand a decent chance of being the second biggest party at local level.

And if it is above that level of loss? How would FF like to be competing with SF for third place?

Regards...jmcc

spank_inferno

The news of the survey IMO is the support for FF hasn't quite collapsed yet.

There is still nearly a quater of likely voters who would vote for them, no matter how bad they perform.

Relatively speaking Cowen could have it a lot worse

irish_bob

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Don't understand why labour taking a hit.

the general public have no time for thier absolute refusal to call for any real reform of the public sector , the public are clearly tired of populism beit BERITIESM or the kind of leftist populism labour have been engaging in for the past number of months

the poll is a green light for fine gael to move away from the centre and to call for outright reform of the PS and the wellfare state
only thing stopping fine gael now is thier leader , were they to have someone like the charismatic IVAN YATES at the helm, every non public sector worker or swing voter in the country would vote fine gael plus rural fianna fail voters who cant stand labour for the most part , all that fianna fail would have left is core , that core is shrinking by the month

MoominPapa

irish_bob wrote: »

only thing stopping fine gael now is thier leader ,

I disagree. I think Endas lack of flash is turning into an asset for FG. We had 10 years of the (apparently - personally never got it) charismatic Bertie and a year of the pugnacious Biffo and look where it got us. I think the public are more welcoming of a grayer, Majoresque figure like Kenny.