HOW TO WIN AT GAMBLING

pakalasa

Well, since I’ve got your attention...........I thought I’d throw this idea about.

To win at gambling you just have to pick CHEAP ODDS, simple as that.

Let me explain- forget about odds for a minute and just think of it in terms of probability.
Say for example, in a Tennis match, or Snooker match where there is no draw, if Player A has a 60% chance of winning then Player B has a 40%. Sounds obvious I know. In a horse race - it is no different. If you add up all the % chances of all the horses it will always come to 100%.

To convert to Odds, simply divide into 100. So player A at 60% would be 1.66 and player B would be 2.52. These are the Betfair decimal type odds.
Remember you also have to cover the commission , lets say it is 5%. So the break-even odds for player A is 1.66 + 0.05 = 1.71 , and player B = 2.57.

So for Player A, 1.70 is a bad bet and 1.72 is a good bet (cheap Bet).
You do this long term and you are guaranteed to win. It’s the law of averages.
So this leaves us to only figure out what the % chance is. For soccer you can get these %’s on the following site
www.soccerstats.com

Lets do an example –
Man U v’s Man City on 10 May 09.
www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england
Man U – 54%
Man City – 18%
Draw – 26%

The break even odds are (no commission) are
Man U – 1.84
Man City – 5.55
Draw – 3.82

What ya think?
Do can bet / lay on which ever gives the cheapest odds (best return).

pakalasa

I just realised my calculation for commission is wrong. I added .05 should have added 5% on the winnings.

kincsem

Now give the formula for calculating the chance of winning. Thank you.

lolkelly

kincsem wrote: »

Now give the formula for calculating the chance of winning. Thank you.

He looks to be basing this on the stats from the link he provided which makes little or no sense to me!

BTW, They use the following for thier stats:

"These result predictions / statistical forecasts are computed automatically based on league results recorded during the current season. This is a statistical exercise aiming at analysing observed relative strengths between teams. No quality and/or accuracy claim is made on such predictions when taken 'as-is' as some critical items influencing match outcomes are NOT taken into account: missing players, motivation, teams objectives, weather, etc."

pakalasa

kincsem wrote: »

Now give the formula for calculating the chance of winning. Thank you.

If I could do this it would be a licence to print money. All you can do is go on form. This is what they have done at
www.soccerstats.com

Click on the "Details" on the right hand side for the "Home / Away"

Man U (Home) Man City (Away)
Win 88% 11%
Draw 5% 29%
Loss 5% 58%

A quick calculation - chance of Man U winning (same as Man City Loosing) = 88% +58% /2 = 73%
Or 1.37 Odds.

I don't know what formulae they use on the site but I imagine it is somewhat similar, but more elaborate to what I've done.

dsmythy

So basically the advice is to find value? Could of said it a lot simpler myself...

Bubs101

How to win at gambling

Overhear a conversation between Doc Brown and Marty Mcfly about the danger of gambling and time travelling. Buy a sports almanac and steal a time travelling Delorian and visit your young self some 50 years in the past. Give him/yourself the almanac and wait 50 years. You will have made a combination of Detroit and Las Vegas and be sleeping with your dream woman while destroying the life of your nemesis by doing his ma.

5starpool

That's mad. I'm just after finishing watching Back to the Future part 2.