Paddy Power have a betting market for % House Value Change in 2009

AARRRGH · 03-05-2009 6:30pm #1

Have a look at it here: http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&ev_type_id=11043&&novelty=1

Is it my imagination, or is the over 15% decline @ 6/4 a no brainer?

dny123456 · 03-05-2009 6:42pm

I wouldn't bet on something I don't understand.

The_Conductor · 03-05-2009 6:53pm

AARRRGH wrote: »

Have a look at it here: http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&ev_type_id=11043&&novelty=1

Is it my imagination, or is the over 15% decline @ 6/4 a no brainer?

According to the odds- its what the majority of the public also think.......

AARRRGH · 03-05-2009 6:58pm

6/4 is good though. I bet a bit and normally "what the public think" would mean it would be 4/6 not 6/4...

The_Conductor · 03-05-2009 7:01pm

The reason for the higher odds- is the range of choices available (and the total unlikelyhood of some of the options). If we were to discover vast oil fields off the west coast- then putting a 33-1 bet on a rise would be an interesting bet......

Freddie59 · 03-05-2009 10:21pm

AARRRGH wrote: »

Have a look at it here: http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&ev_type_id=11043&&novelty=1

Is it my imagination, or is the over 15% decline @ 6/4 a no brainer?

What is the reference point?

;)

johnnyskeleton · 03-05-2009 11:04pm

Freddie59 wrote: »

What is the reference point?;)

The PTSB/ERSI HPI. I wouldn't bet my house on it, so to speak.

Freddie59 · 04-05-2009 10:54am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The PTSB/ERSI HPI. I wouldn't bet my house on it, so to speak.

Oh boy. NO WAY!

RATM · 04-05-2009 6:59pm

Anyone know what is the current %price change so far this year by the PTSB/ERSI index ?
If its already above 10% and there is still 8 months of the year left I'd say 6/4 for 15% and over is good odds.

AARRRGH · 04-05-2009 11:18pm

It seems to be averaging at about 1% per month, so it's likely to be over 12%, but will it speed up enough to be 15%?

RATM · 05-05-2009 11:16pm

Chances are it could, seems like its all going to be bad news from here on in. Unemployment rocketing to 15% and a nasty December budget won't bring much confidence to the market. But will it top 15% or settle in the 12-15% bracket is another question.
Any ideas of what the forecasters have said? Cause I'm sure Paddy Power have analysed them carefully before they laid those percentage parameters.

~Trixiebelle~ · 07-05-2009 1:31am

Yeh, they are looking at the drop from Jan 09 to Dec 09. Last i heard we dropped 9.odd% this year already and we are in May so it certainly wouldnt be unrealistic for it to drop over 15% it is the "fav". I don't think you can go off those novelty bets though, i remember last year they where taking bets on when house prices would rise by a percentage and the fav then was for the 1st quater of 2010. I Wish i stuck a bet on for 2013 or later i think it was 20/1 or something!!

They certainly don't have Morgan Kelly for Odds compiler/risk assessment!!:D