Double your Money bet for tonight (Newcastle v Pompey)

StarCrazy

Just been looking on PaddyPower.com and this caught my eye -

First booking to occur before 29th minute- EVENS

That looks tremendous value given the players that are gonna be playing (Kevin Nolan, Nicky Butt, Ryan Taylor, Sm*th, Sean Davis, Boupa Diop, Mullins, possibly Joey Barton)

Mike Riley is in charge as well, and that c*nt flashes cards like they're going out of fashion.

Looks a nice bet to double yer money

Famous45

Think the home win at better odds is the bet tonight.

Can't seem to collate much information about times of yellow cards in games but from common sense I can gather that a mis-timed tackle could take place in the 1st few mins of any game regardless of what players are on show. I know some players have a history of playing hard on the pitch but at this stage of the season you could argue that those players are warned pre match to be disciplined as the stakes are far greater so in a way you might get the opposite from what you expect.

I think it's a mugs bet really and I can't see the tremendous value to be honest, youre 50/50 chance is most likely 25/75 in my book when you take into consideration there is 90+ mins in a game, the true odds of before 29 mins should be greater than 1/1. Hope you get lucky though.

Famous45

Maybe you work for Powers though, seems very strange for a 1st time poster to post such a bet, as anyone with any sense would most likely laugh off the tremendous value comment. Suppose that's the idiocy that surrounds the power betting enviroment - clueless.

Pompy 2/1 draw no bet ftw

StarCrazy

StarCrazy wrote: »

Just been looking on PaddyPower.com and this caught my eye -

First booking to occur before 29th minute- EVENS

That looks tremendous value given the players that are gonna be playing (Kevin Nolan, Nicky Butt, Ryan Taylor, Sm*th, Sean Davis, Boupa Diop, Mullins, possibly Joey Barton)

Mike Riley is in charge as well, and that c*nt flashes cards like they're going out of fashion.

Looks a nice bet to double yer money

paddy power employee perhaps???

FearDark

So what if he's an employee, he's hardly getting money out of it.

Trampas

well the bet came in

timaaaaay

Spot the affiliate ID in his Paddy Power link

Famous45

ha ha good spot.

well the bet came in

Every dog has his day. At the odds it isn't tremendous value and isn't the true odds. If you wish to bet on odds that are against well you'll be in the poor house, if you aren't already.

Famous45

and for the record the other 9 games that were played in this weeks Premier League failed to have a player booked before 29 mins :rolleyes: think anyone who plays this bet would have been well and truly potless come tonight and at evens it hardly makes up for the other 9 losses

dsmythy

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

In fairness to the OP, he gave his reasoning for the bet, and it had nothing to do with how often a player is booked before 29 minutes.

His reasoning was based on the players and officials that were involved in the game, and he was correct, so nice shout StarCrazy.

Except none of the players he mentioned got the card. In fact none of them got any card. Nevertheless the bet won so can't moan about it.

DerryABU

This works better for a double,I had both the Newcastle(28th min) and the Norwich game(32nd min) in a double last night and won £18.22 for my £5 bet,nice 1 Bassong and Rosenier:).
I've done this bet a few times over the last 4 weeks or so and have made some money,it's usually only offered on televised games though.
Done the Barca/Bayern and Chel/liv double a few weeks back and got that up too.Spanish and European matches work well for this as the refs are more card happy than in the premiership.

Famous45

His reasoning was based on the players and officials that were involved in the game

None of the players he mentioned got a card so he wasn't correct, as you put it.

If you think even money is a good price for such a bet then you can def be considered not the brightest star in the skies

raheny red

Niall - Dahlia wrote: »

Not a bet I'd ever consider, but he gave his reasoning, which included the official involved, which is more than alot of people do when they're tipping, that's all I'm saying.

Agreed 100%, it's always good to see someone giving a reason behind there selections.

Healio

Famous45 wrote:

I think it's a mugs bet really and I can't see the tremendous value to be honest, youre 50/50 chance is most likely 25/75

You are aware there can be no bookings in a game?

Famous45 wrote:

in my book when you take into consideration there is 90+ mins in a game, the true odds of before 29 mins should be greater than 1/1. Hope you get lucky though. .....................................and for the record the other 9 games that were played in this weeks Premier League failed to have a player booked before 29 mins

I'm pretty sure the price is based on stats over a number of seasons. What about the other 300 odd matches this season? or last 10 seasons?

Have you something against the OP??

Famous45 wrote:

If you think even money is a good price for such a bet then you can def be considered not the brightest star in the skies

What price would you have offered??

ArmaniJeanss

Famous45 wrote: »

I think it's a mugs bet really and I can't see the tremendous value to be honest, youre 50/50 chance is most likely 25/75 in my book when you take into consideration there is 90+ mins in a game, the true odds of before 29 mins should be greater than 1/1.

Wow, this is one of the most logically flawed posts I've read here in a while.
You seem to be under the impression that because the 29th minute is roughly a quarter of a game, that there is only a ~25% chance of the first booking occuring in this time period?

You should really think it through yourself to see all the flaws, but I'll give you a few clues to help you on the way.
a). The bookings expectation in a game is always more than 1, usually somewhere between 3 and 4 with the spread boys. Therefore the expectation of when the first booking will be is by definition non-linear vis a vis any particular time segment.

b). Reverse the logic and think in terms of the last booking in a game. Is it really only as likely to be in the final 10 minutes as in the first 10 minutes?

DerryABU

I got the "mugs bet" up again last night:)
Alex booked after 26mins.

Famous45

I'm pretty sure the price is based on stats over a number of seasons. What about the other 300 odd matches this season? or last 10 seasons?

Have you something against the OP??

Well the price of this bet certainly ain't priced on stats - for the past 3 season including this, Newcastle and Portsmouth are not in the top 10 on the discipline table, Newcastle creep into joint 9th at the minute by 1 point. So if you are pretty sure the price is based on stats over a number of seasons well...ie: Newcastle and Portsmouth have decent discipline on the field. Blackburn played Wigan at the weekend and both are pretty dire when it comes to discipline Blackburn spearhead the top of the disciplinary table over the last few years with Wigan right behind then, so how come the original poster didn't use this game to kick off their double your money special, I'll tell you why, cause they are clueless :pac:

dsmythy

DerryABU wrote: »

I got the "mugs bet" up again last night:)
Alex booked after 26mins.

Keep going with it. Let us know how you get on.

Famous45

The mug punters are very quiet today, burnt fingers perhaps.

Famous45

Thread's gone very quiet.

Prob all done your money on the Torquay & Man U & Chelsea games this weekend. Dam who's the mug now

Juwwi

Famous45 wrote: »

Every dog has his day. At the odds it isn't tremendous value and isn't the true odds. If you wish to bet on odds that are against well you'll be in the poor house, if you aren't already.

Famous45 the OP gave a tip that came in .
he gave good reasoning for his bet.

You said you taught the home team to win was a better bet which didnt come in.

I have looked at paddypower site and they have odds around 1/1 for a booking in the first 29 or 30 minutes depending on which match
and they also have odds around 1/1 for the first booking after the 29th or 30 th minute so if you think backing before the 29th minute is a mugs bet why are you not backing after the 29th minute at the same odds then ??????

Also what odds do you think are the correct odds for a card in the first 29 minutes should be ???????

Famous45

2 More televised games today and surprise surprise 2 more losses :pac:

Healio

Famous45 wrote: »

2 More televised games today and surprise surprise 2 more losses :pac:

I didnt see anyone tipping those matches up. :rolleyes:

Famous45

Famous45 wrote: »

2 More televised games today and surprise surprise 2 more losses :pac:

Question for you. Why do you post in the gambling forum?