Limerick 21st April

cson

Heading to this tomorrow so I've had a gander through the card. Its pretty poor fare overall with the first four races sprints so I'll mainly be concerned with topspeed ratings there. In any case, I've narrowed it down to these;

5.05 On the basis of it there should only be one choice for this 7f 3yo Maiden. The Tommy Stack trained Castor was unlucky to lose out by a short head to Lastkingofscotland in Tipperary on heavy ground and should account for all of these here on bare form, anther plus is the high draw. However two I think worth noting are La Tizona and Someone Praying. La Tizona is the top speed rated horse in the race and while previous outings have left a lot to be desired the gelding produced two credible 4th places over in England on turf which seems to produce the best of him. It'll be interesting to see how he shapes on soft here. The Augustine Leahy yard has sent out only 6 runners on the flat so far this season but already yielded 2 winners. Evidence of this tight yards form helps make a case for Someone Praying who has a course run behind him. While that run was over 5f, this trip comes over 7f and the step up in trip will surely suit Fran Berrys mount after coming with a strong surge last time out (after breaking poorly) to stay on well for 4th. I'd have these priced up as 2/1 - Castor, 5/1 Someone Praying and 9/1 La Tizona. My suggestion here is if Castor turns out to be too tight a price, an e/w on Someone Praying would be best.

Back Someone Praying 1pt e/w NB

5.40 The fillies maiden brings two classy types together in Dermot Welds Moving Heart and Kevin Prendergasts Samba School. They are someway ahead of the rest of the field in this 3yo contest, both have favourable high draws and while preference would naturally be for the latter, one suspects that Samba School will be a price for a race like this. Moving Heart improved on two decent placings to finish 2nd last time out in Cork however this 7f trip hasn't been attempted before. In the fillies favour however is that it looked like a step down in trip would help her based on her last run in Cork. Samba School returned for the season with an excellent 2nd over the all weather in Dundalk last time out while two previous 3rds over similar distance and ground conditions point to one who will enjoy this trip. Of the rest, Audrey is one who isn't disgraced in this company however I do feel she'll find one of these too good. Again pricing them myself; Samba School 9/4, Moving Heart 7/2 and Audrey 10/1. I'd be inclined to side with Welds horse however, I think the trip will suit better than last time out in addition to being the top speed rated horse and the trainers good form.

Back Moving Heart 1pt win

6.10 A very ugly contest here with the formbook little use. Only two have really cought my attention here; Positive Event for the on-fire Manning-Bolger combo and Rosie The Riveter for Edward Lynam who is in a decent vein of form himself. Both are coming fresh into this contest with no previous runs. While Rosie The Riveter is the topspeed rated horse it is impossible to ignore the rude health of the Bolger yard and as such Postive Event is taken to land this poor contest, another plus in my view is the booking of Martin Harley one of the classier claimers going at the moment. Of the rest Abundant Spirit ran a decent race over course and distance last time out and may run into the places in a poor contest like this if you fancy an e/w shout.
Prices: Positive Event 6/4 Rosie The Riveter 8/1 Abundant Spirit 12/1

Back Positive Event 1pt win

6.40 Quite a competitive handicap sprint here in comparision to the rest of the racing with a few in with a shout. Filista will be very popular for midas man Jim Bolger again after easily winning a maiden over a similar trip and ground in Tipperary, the high draw being another positive. In form Edward Lynam boasts a recent course and distance winner in Pussyfooting whose form is somewhat embellished by the recent victory of Lord Rathvinden the horse the filly beat last time out here in Limerick, again the high draw is a plus and I do wonder if the presence of the Bolger horse may make this one a tempting e/w price. Gra Geal Mo Chroi was 3rd in that race and confirmed the quality of the first 3 home when winning handily in Cork last time. While the draw isn't as favourable as the first two mentioned, it isn't a major negative either and with 4lbs and 5lbs in hand respectively with Emmet McNamara taking another 5lbs off this one competes off a very nice mark against these and should be a decent e/w price. Of the rest Spaventa may represent an outsider with a chance after posting a 3rd over this distance in Tipperary.
Pricing Pussyfooting 3/1 Filista 9/2 Gra Geal Mo Chroi 6/1 Spaventa 16/1

Back Gra Geal Mo Chroi 1pt e/w

7.10 The highlight of the card poses quite a few questions here with some of the powerhouse yards of Irish flat racing clashing. The market principals however will be the only two concerned in the finish in my view. Liebhermann for the Weld yard and Blas Ceoil representing Jim Bolger are the two to watch. Liebhermann has the more consistent form over this trip with a horse who beat him recently, Vocalised, winning again in Newmarket at the weekend. Blas Ceoil, not aided by a low draw, has 2lbs in hand though and the quick turnout after running last Saturday should see an improved run. I'm finding it hard to split the two overall however and I will be doing a reverse forecast but the verdict goes to Blas Ceoil purely on the basis of being the top speed horse in this race by some distance.
Pricing Liebhermann 6/4 Blas Ceoil 9/4

Back Blas Ceoil 1pt win NAP

7.40 Again, typically poor flat fare for this time of year is presented in this contest. As always a tricky one to find something that'll go well however we can be reasonable confident Desert Sands will produce a good run for your money having finished a close second over course and distance last time out. Of the rest, there will be plenty of support for the Willie Mullins trained Havetoavit but the one I'll be keeping a close eye on is the Grassick owned and trained Torina. With 2008 proving fruitful, a run into the places would not be surprising from this filly and is one for e/w money.
Pricing: Desert Sands 7/2 Havetoavit 5/1 Torina 10/1

Back Torina 1pt e/w

8.10 A small field go to post for the finale here and it's hard to see past John Oxx charge Alifya. 2nd and 1st on the all weather in Dundalk on her last two starts this filly will take all the beating though Rory Anna may pose a question after a credible 3rd in Cork. Nevertheless, Alifya should easily see off any challengers and is tipped to bring a winning end to the meeting albeit at a restrictive price.
Pricing Alifya 4/6 Rory Anna 5/1

Back Alifya 1pt win

Good luck if you back anything.

fr wishy washy

Great preview,agree the fav might be worth opposing in the opener.

Kauto

Cson i have said before you have no idea about horse racing and this proves it yet again. 'i would have castor at 2/1' Well dont become an odds compiler cos you dont have a clue. The horse was always going to be odds on you moron. Best price 4/7. Give it up.

cson

Cheers!

Could you please give me a few prospective winners tonight from that vast fountain of racing knowledge of yours then?

Kauto

No interest in the flat but have three cacking bets tommorrow in Ballinrobe to share with you. Seriously 2/1??????? Best laugh i had all day!

cson

Cacking bets?

They'll be lays then I'm guessing.

On topic; I'm not so sure the official going of soft will be spot on, we're after having two days of pretty warm sunshine here in Limerick which should have dried Greenmount up a bit. I'd imagine it'll be on the good side of soft more than anything.

kingshankly

Kauto wrote: »

Cson i have said before you have no idea about horse racing and this proves it yet again. 'i would have castor at 2/1' Well dont become an odds compiler cos you dont have a clue. The horse was always going to be odds on you moron. Best price 4/7. Give it up.

It's comments like these that keep people from posting on here

Hobart

Kauto wrote: »

No interest in the flat but have three cacking bets tommorrow in Ballinrobe to share with you. Seriously 2/1??????? Best laugh i had all day!

Best laugh I've had all day is banning your ignorant ass for 3 weeks. See you then, if ever.

mike65

Kauto is no star?

/sorry