Budget Predictions 2009 - Post them here!

GuanYin

Could you be Finance Minister in the Irish Government?

Post your predictions for Budget 2009 here and see who gets it right!

DrumSteve

my predictions for budget:

Income (lower rate) : 21.5%
Income (Higher rate): 48%

Cigs to stay the same
Petrol up 7c
booze up 3/5c

Child benefit/carers allowance cut.

dole= unchanged.

massive pay increases for the government.

Tom65

There won't be an raise in tax, but more likely in income levies (I'm going to hazard a guess at an increase to 2.5%), or so the Irish Times tells me.. I think a lot of welfare will be cut, most likely child welfare, maybe little things like free travel for carers. Cigarettes up by aroud 25c, obviously alcohol too.

mike65

Smokes up by 10%
Fuel up by 15-20c
Drink up 10%
1000 euro per child "gift" ended.

dresden8

Crap loads of money to IBEC and the CIF paid for through extra levies in lieu of taxes next year.

Come Wednesday people from Kerry will be driving to Newry to take advantage in savings on petrol, smokes and booze.

cooperguy

Booze up very little if anything at all. The booze lobby is strong and they actually have a point this time that jobs would be lost if prices go up even more. That and people will be travelling north instead.

Income levy doubled

Social Welfare down be ~3%

johnnyskeleton

Overall:

An underwhelming budget that does as little as possible to rock the boat and doesn't address the structural problems in any significant way. Changes totaling €3.5-4bn, while at the same time the gap has increased by up to €10bn since the last budget. Will be claimed as a fair budget designed to share pain and bring us back to recovery. Will actually be none of those things. Absolutely no future planning or acknowledgment of past mistakes.

Expenditure:

Seriously underwhelming cuts here. Cuts to junior ministries of a notional €500k.

Dept Health will come up with €3-500m in cuts (and only later reveal, as is discussed in the Emergency Services Forum, that emergency rooms in regional hospitals are cutting out night shifts etc).

Maybe €100m in other cuts.

No mention whatsoever will be made about the fact that the cost of debt and social welfare has balloned in the last few months and looks likely to increase over the next few.

Income:

Income levies doubled to 2x, 4x and 6x same thresholds. They will claim this will bring in €2bn but I have my doubts.

10c on beer, 20c on 20 smokes. Maybe a few cent on wine and spirits. Announce plan to prevent below cost selling in off licences and I wouldn't put it past them to exempt pubs from the increased excise (thus showing their true FF colours yet again).

Just to be controversial, I'll say Vat back to 21% standard and 10% for builders.

I wouldn't put it past them to put DIRT up to 25% or introduce a higher DIRT rate for high earners.

No talk of getting rid of tax exemptions or closing loopholes.

There isn't really much else they can do mid year.

BOHSBOHS

i reckon you could be spot on with the DIRT increase johnnyskeleton

possibly some CGT and CAT % and rule changes too

cant do much midyear else except up the levies and up the excise on the old reliables. ( i think the levies might increase more than people think!)
...the hinting at tax rate increases next year.

reduction of all social welfare payments by at least 3% possibly 5%
(21bn on SW needs to be trimmed!)

ateam

If social welfare isn't cut, they can't widen the tax base. There would be no point in working for very little, then get taxed on it when you can claim generous social welfare. So social welfare has to be cut or else don't widen the tax base.

Petrol is going up now, tonight it was 1.08 in my local garage. I really hope he doesn't increase that by much.

I heard rumours the early childcare supplement is going to be done away with?

wolfpawnat

Petrol - 10c min up.
Cigarettes - 20c min.
Alcohol - 10% approx.
Carers free travel - gone.
State pensions - -€10.
Dole - -€15-20.
Children's Allowance - -€16.
Carers Allowance - -€10.
Early Childhood supplement - Goodbye!!!!!!! (€1100 pa).
Colleges Fees - Hello!!!!
College Grants - -€250 - half grant recipients
-€500 - full grant recipients

Hang-on should we be discussing this tonight, No doubt if Cowen and the lads saw this, we could actually be giving them ideas!!!!

Bottle_of_Smoke

Slight reduction in minimum wage(or is that impossible?) and dole.

DonkeyStyle \o/

I predict a massive give-away budget.

Agent Smith

DonkeyStyle \o/ wrote: »

I predict a massive give-away budget.

who are we giving to country away to?:pac:


Petrol - 10c min
Cigarettes - 50c
Alcohol - 10% approx.
Carers free travel - gone.
State pensions - same
Dole - -€20.
Children's Allowance - -€16.
Carers Allowance - -€10.
Early Childhood supplement - totally Gone
Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)

jank

The levey will double.
There will be a new band for those over 100,000 that will pay 60% tax
There will be a plan for fees to be introduced within 24 months.
Child benifits will be hit.
Free travel for OAP could be gone.
Welfare to be cut or at least allowances to be cut back.
Vat to be dropped to 18%
5c on Petrol
10c on the pint
VRT to go up aswell as road tax.

TBH where are they going to come up with 3.5 Billion? People are going to be pissed and the medical card thing will seem like a pub fight compared to the demos that will follow this budget.

Mycroft H

Agree with most of above plus 10c on diesel due because its far cheaper then petrol

lostexpectation

anyone notice the sindo had 3 seperate articles and PICTURES OF RIOTS in their paper this weekend along with predictions of civil unrest and riots and disturbances and comparisons to iceland and article from military contractor mcevaddy.

subtle as ****

is_that_so

Agree with most of the comments here.
Old reliables up, diesel by more. Childcare supplement may even go, but definitely down by 50%. It will go next year. Higher levies this year, tax increases next year. That text tax.

Most important thing IMO is the plan. In fact I think it's crucial.
I expect to see detailed comments on

Plan for Deficit Reduction
Child Benefit
Overall Social welfare payments
"Toxic Loans" Bank Plan
Tax Exiles
NDP or what'll be left of it
Closing Tax loopholes
Stimulus Spending- IMO high on aspiration and low on actual projects, ideas
Tax on excessive doommongering(;))
Public Sector Reform - another one high on aspiration but designed to give the right impression

I also reckon we'll have another budget before time as well, most likely September/October.

knipex

This government are too scared to adjust spending by much. Too scared to tackle the unions. They may introduce changes to employment contracts but they will only affect new entrants.

Temporary levies introduced instead of tax increases. Levies will be scrapped in January and then replaced with tax increases. Will be announced as a tax increase and the equivalent in a levy format.

As a media friendly sop to the public they will announce cuts in TD pay (around 5 to 8%) cuts in ministers pay of around 10 to 12%, stop paying ministers pensions to serving TD's. This is on top of the cut in junior ministers. Total saving will be a couple of million or so a drop in the bucket.

Levies will be increased and announced as temporary to be replaced with tax increases in January. They will be announced bot as a levy and the equivalent tax increase. Levy for those on higher pay will double while those on lower pay will see a 50% increase. The minimum wage exemption will remain.

Employees PRSI to increase by 1 to 2%, employers PRSI to be cut or a 1 to 2 year exemption put in place for new employees or for companies in trouble.

Minimum wage will drop (well should drop but have they the guts ?)

Social welfare. Child benefit to be means tested.
early childcare supplement to be cut or means tested.
Job seekers allowance \ dole to be cut by 2 to 3%
Big clamp down on false claims and increased restrictions on who is entitled to payment.

Carbon tax an petrol, diesel, heating oil etc. May replace a portion of excise but will be a higher.

Old reliables of cigs and drink will little or no increase only a fool would promote smuggling and create a new income stream for the criminal gangs. (but then going on past experience they could do anything) ban on below cost selling of alcohol. New restrictions on off licences.

Even after the budget the deficit will be accepted to be about 10.5%

In 3 to 4 months the government will announce that the budget increases have not brought in the extra revenue that was forecast nor have the made the savings that were forecast and the true deficit will be closer to 11 or 11.5 %. Election will be called and it will be left to the new non FF government to implement a totally draconian budget to try and resolve matters. A budget that need never have happened if the current shower had introduced a realistic budget last year instead of the cowardly attempt that they did implement.

New government will face public outcry when their budget is implemented. There will be a massive increase in the support for both the hard right (any immigrants, anti minorities etc) and the hard left.

Caroline_ie

Cowen on a bike ... would do him a world of good

rubadub

knipex wrote: »

Minimum wage will drop (well should drop but have they the guts ?)

Job seekers allowance \ dole to be cut by 2 to 3%

These would have to happen in line with each other. I could survive easily on the dole. Own-brand food is extremely cheap these days, all the talk of food packages and being on the "bread line" was a joke. You can get a lot of food & drink now cheaper than they were in the 80's.

I think they will try and get some distinction between off licence alcohol sales and pub ones. They want to keep their publicans mates in business. I think there was some talk of a separate off sales levy before.

El Stuntman

my prediction is that they will take the politically easier but economically more foolish option of jacking up taxes substantially and only tinkering with spending at the margins

what they should be doing is cutting spending dramtically and keeping taxes low. Public sector wages are too high relative to our competitors, SW benefits are too high, we have too many quangos and we waste too much money. Sorting this out would provide long-term benefits but this shower of criminals would never have the fortitude required to do this, ffs a shower of well-off grannies sent them trembling back into the Dail last September

Dartz

It appears to me that the easiest way to reduce government expenditure is to reduce the amount going out on social welfare, or get something out of it. Unemployed people are capable of working.

Why not put them to work?

So the State gets something back for it's money. I'm talking basic infrastructure jobs. Road-works, rail-works. Stuff that needed to be done during the Celtic tiger but was passed over in favour of pet projects.

500,000 people out of work is a lot of idle manpower. the US built the Hoover dam with that sort of Manpower.

A bridge to England? Dublin-Cork motorway/high-speed Rail?

But... nope. They won't do that. Because that's what the British tried during the famine... and everybody knows how well that went...

Or we can lure them all to the one place under the guise of a tax-inspection, freeze them suddenly in Glycol, load the lot of them onto DC-8's and drop them into a volcano. A few Hydrogen bombs should finish that wall of fire...

Biggins

Petrol - 20c min
Cigarettes - €1.00
Alcohol - 10% approx.
Carers free allowence - 3/5% reduction.
State pensions - don't know.
Dole - -€20.
Children's Allowance - -€16.
Early Childhood supplement - Gone
Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)

Social welfare - THE BIGGIE for some - postponed till next year.
This will be done as to further sneak in additional cuts once those on benefits are already used to the cuts that will come today!

The government knows quite well that they can handle better bouts of small quieter anger than at present one BIG huge one that actually just might bring them down.
...so they will do things incrementally over a period of time.

gurramok

If they put up the price of alcohol/cigs, it will really show how stupid they are. Obviously they never heard of Northern Ireland.

I bet they won't tackle the public sector, they are afraid of the unions and everyone else will be taxed to pay for them hence depressing economic activity and further reducing revenues to record lows, its back to the 80's again.

I suspect they will reduce social welfare a bit but will not touch the pensioners as after all they vote.

Boskowski

Biggins wrote: »

Petrol - 20c min

I agree that it is most likely going to happen but it would be sooo foolish as on the back of it everything will go up (transport costs). This will drive inflation and by the time the oil price goes up again we'll be paying 2 Euro for a liter.

Petrol outrages me, oil price is still $50, the dollar is at 1.32735 for a Euro and still prices at the pumps are creeping back up. If the government adds to this we're fvcked, they only added 8 Cent not so long ago. If they add another 10 Cent they'd be responsible for a 20% increase in less than 6 months which is insane as one of our big problems are inflated prices and also the country depends on road transport as there is no other infrastructure to speak of.

bladespin

Ok, probably not as radical as some here seem to like but:

Changes to capital gains, up about 10%
Child benefit capped
Early childcare means tested
jobseekers benefit cut by 10%
massive cuts to quangos.
NDP on hold.
tax bands tightened, will bring more of the lower paid into play
2% increase on both income tax brachets.
Levy on those earning €100k and above (1% at a guess)
Property tax of 0.25% of market value introduced on all private houses, commercial exemption for now.
car tax up 5% on all bands
scrappage scheme introduced on cars 7 years or older.
Petrol etc up 5c per litre.
2c levy on phone texts.
Cigs and drink up a token as mentioned above - smuggling
Vat reduced to 17.5%
:eek:

moonbug33

dresden8 wrote: »

Come Wednesday people from Kerry will be driving to Newry to take advantage in savings on petrol, smokes and booze.

Now so........which road leaves Kerry.

Sully

I thought Dermot Ahern said something on The Week in Politics to FG about not increasing tax on petrol? I only heard it in passing.

themadchef

Things that will be implemented straight away
The old reliables will all go up.
The levy increased to 2% and 4%

Honestly i cant see them touching the dole this time but i can see them announcing a big change in the way it's paid out next year. Example, back to work schemes instead of the dole where people are unemployed. Also i can see stricter checks on people claiming social welfare to reduce fraudulent claims.


Children's allowance will not be reduced but again it will be announced that from next year it's going to be means tested.

Early childcare allowance will be paid out similar to medical expenses. Submit your expenses for the year and a % will be paid back to you for the childcare. This again will not be set in play till next year.

Tax band shortening and tax rate increases as of next year as i dont think they can do it mid year.

Cant see them reducing the minimum wage or it will put more people on the dole.

All in all i think we're just going to get fair warning for whats coming next year. I really dont think their going for more than €3.5 / 4 billion in this budget and that shouldint be too hard to find.

The question is, will whatever they do be enough.

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

El Stuntman

Cowen to go on the lock tonight

johnnyskeleton

rubadub wrote: »

I think they will try and get some distinction between off licence alcohol sales and pub ones. They want to keep their publicans mates in business. I think there was some talk of a separate off sales levy before.

I thought they'd try something like that too, but I've heard that the excise is charged at the brewery rather than at point of sale. So an increase in the excise would have to be across the board.

seamus

What they should do (headline stuff):

1. Reduce minmum wage to €7.50
2. Reduce all forms of social welfare assistance by 5%, including child benefits and whatever else.
3. 10% redundancies in the the public service, weighted at the management level, along with removal of all bonusses (temporarily).
4. Both tax bands up by 2%, tax credits reduced by 10%, new third band - 55% above €100k.

This one needs to be vicious and it needs to be painful. We need to ensure that we're set up correctly for the future and not just limping along until the next boom arrives.

What they will do:

1. Reduce minimum wage.
2. Remove any "bonus" welfare assistance such as the €1k per child thing.
3. Public sector pay and hiring freeze for 2 years.
4. Minimal increases in taxation - probably 1 or 2% on the levy.
5. Supports for the builders - offer grants to builders to reduce prices and tax relief on new home sales.
6. 5-10c on the usuals.

Spud83

I'm pretty sure VAT will be reduced. Could just go back down the .5% they put it up last year or it could be more. They have already admitted it was a mistake so if they don't "fix" their mistake then its really unbelievable.

1) All levy rates to go up.
2) Widening of the tax base.
3) Plans for college fees for 2010.
4) Vat down to 21%
5) Increase in fuel, petrol, oil.
6) Early child care thing gone.
7) Childrens allowance to be means tested.
8) Rent Relief to be looked at. Rent has come down so should this.
9) Public Sector pay and hiring freeze. (more should be done).
10) Taxing of the public sector lump sump pension payment.
12) The dole / job seekers allowance to be cut by three to five percent.
13) New higher tax band to be introduced next year.
14) Levy's to be incorporated into the standard tax system next year.
15) Smokes left alone
16) Alcohol left alone unless there is a split between pubs and off licenses.

Unfortunantly I don't think this will be enough and the economy will continue to slide.

knipex

knipex wrote: »

In 3 to 4 months the government will announce that the budget increases have not brought in the extra revenue that was forecast nor have the made the savings that were forecast and the true deficit will be closer to 11 or 11.5 %. Election will be called and it will be left to the new non FF government to implement a totally draconian budget to try and resolve matters. A budget that need never have happened if the current shower had introduced a realistic budget last year instead of the cowardly attempt that they did implement.

New government will face public outcry when their budget is implemented. There will be a massive increase in the support for both the hard right (any immigrants, anti minorities etc) and the hard left.

Good post. I agree with everything except the last sentence. People will probably just vote FF back in again after someone else cleans up their mess.

mathie

Ah that's cute people think dole payments will be touched.
:rolleyes:

ongarite

Agree with everything that has been listed, cut in minimum wage is a pipe dream though, unions would kick up a huge stink.

IMO, means testing won't happen, instead it will be taxed as an income. Needs to be quick and instant. Means testing takes time, massive administration & man-power costs.

Fanny Cradock

It will be grim!

1. Petrol: +6c
2. Diesel: +8c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Children's Allowance: -€14
6. Dole: no change


Below is what I would do:

1. Petrol: -12c
2. Diesel: +2c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
6. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
7. Dole: no change
8. Children's Allowance: -€10
9. Carers Allowance: no change
10. Early Childhood Supplement: -€200 (payment restricted to children under 4)
11. Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)
12. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
13. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
14. VRT: -4%
15. Minimum Wage: -10c

walshki

The whole thing is a smoke screen. About 2.30 a truck will leave Central bank driven by the two brians containing the last of the country's money. This will board a chartered boat in the docks and head off for Cuba where Michael Martin recently purchased a large villa while on a pretend trade mission.

Alternatively 25c on cigs, 8cent on petrol and diesel, 10c on beer, minor on wine and other alcohol. 3% cut social welfare. Double the income levy and brink the ceiling for the now 4% band back to 75k. Also increase the PRSI ceiling to 75k just to cover the bases.

Don't think they'll go at pensions. Think later in the year will be taxation of childrens benefit.

As a matter of opinion they should abolish mortgage interest relief for people after 7 years.

zesman

Start properly taxing farmers with incomes in excess of €100,000

ntlbell

walshki wrote: »

As a matter of opinion they should abolish mortgage interest relief for people after 7 years.

do they not do this all ready?

Het-Field

If you think this budget will be bad, just wait until the September version.

I wouldnt be suprised if FF are holding off on the money shot until after the locals and Europeans. If they think their candidates are fcuked now, any further boat rocked would see FF down to between 100-150 local authority seats, and 1-2 European Parliment Seats..

Today will be another ham fisted attempts based on speculative tax increases. The VAT mistake has been acknowleged, but a token drop (around 20% would not be enough) wouldnt be acceptable. It needs to be on a parity, or below the UK level.

Petrol, TV Licence, Motor Tax will probably be increased, along with a text tax, and a highly uncompetitive Carbon Tax.

A third tax band is unlikely to be introduced, but a reajustment is equally unlikely. It will be a higher levy ("ajusted in the hope of looking fair" (posiible up by 2-4%)

The likelyhood of a "Toxic Bank" is a good call, save for the fact that the taxpayer is footing the bill.

Sale of state assets is completely unlikely

Anything which is revenue neutral (suspended/abolished stamp duty) will certainly not rear its head.

The suspension of between 3-4 Junior Minsters, is a token gesture, which will be amended in time, when the jobs for the boys mentality rears it's ugly head again

Finally, the government have an opligation to the vunrable. But this cannot be at the expense of society's most productive. If those at the top are not contributing, the most vunrable will suffer doubly, and the country will not be given th opportunity of pulling itself up by its boot straps.

ongarite

hellboy99 wrote: »

1. Petrol: +6c
2. Diesel: +8c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Children's Allowance: -€14
6. Dole: no change


Below is what I would do:

1. Petrol: -12c
2. Diesel: +2c
3. Cigarettes: no change
4. Alcohol: +10%
5. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
6. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
7. Dole: no change
8. Children's Allowance: -€10
9. Carers Allowance: no change
10. Early Childhood Supplement: -€200 (payment restricted to children under 4)
11. Colleges Fees - fees (means tested)
12. Reduced Rate VAT: -1%
13. Standard Rate VAT: -2%
14. VRT: -4%
15. Minimum Wage: -10c

Ehh, how does that actually bring any extra money in that the government needs???

Hooch

Just change the year to 2009 and were sorted!

Prepare for a couple of bad years. Drop yer trousers folks because Cowen wants to have fun

ongarite

As a matter of interest, what were tax rates and tax bands in 2003??

Total tax income has fallen back to 2003/2004 levels, so what would be the levels of taxation needed to counter-act this fall?

walshki

ntlbell wrote: »

do they not do this all ready?

You still receive €900 relief p.a. as a couple. Indefinitely to my knowledge.

TheSpecialOne

This will be harsh but next year we'll all think this was grand as were going to be facing the budget from hell next year or perhaps again this year october maybe!?...anyway heres what i think will happen today!
Petrol:up 2c
Diesel: up 5c
Cigarettes:up15c
Alcohol: up 30c on certain types ie vodka
vat: down to 18%
Dole: down 4 euro
Children's Allowance: down slightly
Carers Allowance: same as above
Early Childhood Supplement:gone adios!
Colleges Fees:fees (means tested)---disgrace im my view!
Minimum Wage:stays same but will be slashed soon!
all government to take 13% paycut!
ndp to be cut back by 45% at least!
and a new silly tax ie txt,house,travel

ongarite

ongarite wrote: »

Ehh, how does that actually bring any extra money in that the government needs???

It would stimulate the economy, increase spending here and bring back the thousands that shop up north each week.

If all the following prices go up i.e. petrol, diesel, drink, cigarettes etc.. it will just send more people across the border and further decrease much needed revenue. I now fill up my car up north after buying my shopping there as it's cheaper than filling up where I live.

Also in relation to petrol and diesel, if this is increased this will be a disaster of a decision and we will no doubt see knock on effect increases in the prices of energy, transport, groceries, goods etc..

RiverWilde

Ah well if Biffo hikes up tax the way he's expected to, whatever I have left will not end up in this jurisdiction.

The FF/PD/Independent shower of idiots have had ten to fifteen years of boom.

What did they spend the money on? Hats? Shoes? Hair? Bottles of bubbly? failed infrastructural projects?

I'll be damned if I'll pay for the continuation of the party.

Riv