And you thought Robbie Coltrane was the only fat Scottish Profiler....

trainbairn

The Turf Flat season begins today with the traditional season opener of the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster, and a cracking card with quite a few nice betting opportunities looks the order of the day.

First up, in the consolation Lincoln, at 2.45 I am very sweet on the chances of the top weight Mangham at a best priced 9/1. He has the low draw that the experts in that field seem to be assuring us is the best place to be going on the stats which is a positive and looks like he has ideal conditions here.

MANGHAM(IRE)
4 yo g ( D Brown)

Distance
7f: 253 (0-3)
1m:1012 (2-4)
1m1f: 1 (1-1)
1m2f: 323 (0-3)

Conclusion:he is best at 1m-1m1f.

Going
Good to firm or faster: 12 (1-2)
Good: 531 (1-3)
Good to soft: 2302 (0-4)
Soft/Heavy:31 (1-2)

Conclusion: all ground comes alike to him.

Jockey:
P. Mulrennan: 31321012 (3-8)

Conclusion: He runs especially well for Paul Mulrennan.

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing at 1m-1m1f, his record reads:11012 (4-5) All these runs came when ridden by Paul Mullrennan.

He has flourished for the move to David Brown’s yard, and with the jockey on board today who gets the best out of him, he looks to have all the usual bases covered(Trip suits, ground isn’t a problem, jockey on board is a positive) so at the prices around he most certainly looks far better value than backing current favourite Fireside who has only one Newmarket maiden win to his name and yet is more than half the price of the Brown runner. Put it this way, place Mangham in the care of Michael Jarvis and what price do you reckon he would be?.. Certainly far shorter than he is today and therefore he has to be the bet today.

In the Lincoln itself, there are a few horses that cases could be made for against the short priced favourite from the Gosden yard and the one that catches my eye specifically is the Jamie Osborne trained Docofthebay who currently trades at around the 25/1 mark which looks too big if he comes back to form, albeit that I would rather take SP given the doubts about the market leader’s participation than take a price and have a hefty deduction clobber any winnings.
This one doesn’t look to have pulled up any trees so far this season, but his trainer has just been getting him ready so far(even going as far as to admit this in comments to the media prior to his re-appearance that he was getting him fit for the carnival in Dubai where he didn’t run his race at all) and there are a couple of interesting pointers to his chance today.

Firstly, he was second in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal Ascot meeting in the summer on this ground, off a mark 6lbs higher than he runs off today, so is well handicapped on that run. The improved performance that day came with the application of a first time blinkers which then failed to work after that resulting in some poor performances in his runs since then.

The blinkers are back on today, which I see as a positive, and also the fact he has previous in these cavalry charge fields is a positive(2nd in Pipedreamer’s Cambridgeshire as well as that second in the Hunt Cup as well as two wins in fields of 15 runners or more) so with Joe Fanning on board he definitely rates a bet with his eight 2nd places making it each way rather than just straight win in case he finds one too good again.

The third cracker on Town Moor runs in the concluding apprentice handicap at 5.40 and features another horse who has a distinct profile to his runs.

TRIP THE LIGHT
4 yo g ( R A Fahey)

Distance:
6f: 05(0-2)
7f: 0(0-1)
1m1f: 8 (0-1)
1m3f: 5 (0-1)
1m4f: 431 (1-3)
1m6f: 115 (2-3)
2m: 5 (0-1)

Conclusion: Quite what connections were doing even entertaining hopes of him running well over 6f given his pedigree is beyond me. His best runs have come when he started to run over 1m4f+.

Going
Good to firm or faster: 50131 (2-5)
Good: 51 (1-2)
Soft: 05 (0-2)
Polytrack: 845 (0-3)

Conclusion: he is best on quicker surfaces on Turf with a record on Good or faster being: 5051311 (3-7).

Headgear:
Visor: 11155 (3-5)
No headgear: 0508543(0-7)

Conclusion:he improved leaps and bounds for the application of a visor last year.

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing on ground officially good or faster, when wearing a visor, his record reads: 111 (3-3).

Unbeaten under today’s conditions, and dropped a few pounds because of last season’s two late runs on unsuitable ground, he hails from an inform yard( three winners and three seconds from their last nine runners), we are getting double figure odds because of possible worries about his fitness, but I am more than willing to accept that he is a horse who we could look back at the end of the season as being very well handicapped here as it wins off far higher marks later in the season and we do get the services of one of the better apprentices in this race on our side as well.

To complete the magic foursome, a chance is taken with Marcus Tregoning’s Ajhar who runs in the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton. The course record-holder over 11f here, he goes well fresh and will be therefore ready to run his race after a 126 day break, if the drop down to 10f doesn’t cause him too many problems. He is clear top rated on Top Speed figures on that run last September, and I can’t have the favourite Bronze Cannon on the clock as I think he runs his best races first time up and will bounce to the moon today running so shortly after that run in the Winter derby, so with the prices as they are, the value