On the mend??

Clytus

Privatly Iv been saying it for a few months..thats given the instant information age we live in that maybe this economic cycle will take a "V" shape as oppossed to the typical "U".
The speed of our economic downturn is the common theme of conversation today...but why should the upturn not be as dramatic??

The green shoots of recovery are there...the "real" economic numbers out of the US support this.

Flamed Diving

The green shoots of recovery are there...the "real" economic numbers out of the US support this.

Such as?

Clytus

Slaes of new homes ( rate of sales highest in 10 months) & rate of sales of durable goods & dry shipping index

Basically/technically DJIA is a bull market on the back of this "real info".

leninbenjamin

now's where the unquantifiable 'rational' agent comes into play. Will the populace become buoyed by the recent figures and spend? or will the fears of a false dawn force them to retreat further...

personally i think we've some way to go, but what's left will be more a gradual decline. in terms of international trade i anythink forecasts will slowly be re-estimated upwards for a period perhaps (At least in my extended circle i know of a few small businesses with expansion plans, maybe it's misguided to go off this), but eventually Dell will close up shop, and Intel will probably follow suit to some degree at some stage and we're not in a position to replace them. Many people, particularly the self employed and small local businesses are still just about hanging on and i think we may still see a raft of bankruptcies over the coming year (although the largescale stuff is probably over temporarily, until their new business plans drafted in the face of the crises are implemented, like Dell).

Policy wise i think our governments approach so far has been a bit chaotic. maybe the April plan will be something positive, but i think they are simply too reactionary to sort us out just yet and it will take another international business cycle for us to see renewed consumer confidence across the economy, their failure to dampen despite signs in 06 and 07 has cost us. We can no longer rely on attracting a manufacturing base, and our education system is well short of attracting the higher skilled stuff, and there's very few signs of the innovation within the econoy to sort us out. I see no immediate way out for us.

Saabdub

A quick recovery would depend on the Government not over-correcting the fiscal situation this year and cutting expenditure too deeply. However the evidence is to the contrary. The signs are that new taxes will be introduced and old ones increased and new fees introduced for services. National and Local Government are reducing services, letting contract staff go, curtailing expenditure on road maintenance and postponing/canceling parts of the NDP. This may have the affect of sedating an economy that needs a stimulant.

Saabdub

silverharp

Clytus wrote: »

Privatly Iv been saying it for a few months..thats given the instant information age we live in that maybe this economic cycle will take a "V" shape as oppossed to the typical "U".
The speed of our economic downturn is the common theme of conversation today...but why should the upturn not be as dramatic??

The green shoots of recovery are there...the "real" economic numbers out of the US support this.

you cant jump on one number and call a bottom. The overshoot on the upside was so big that the correction has not nearly had enough time to work its way through. In the US there are still motgage resets, credit card defaults and commercial property defaults coming down the line.
Give it a couple of years at least before looking for green shoots