budget 2009??

heavymetalrock

hi guys, as we all know that the budget is coming up soon..
i was wondering what do ye think will happen in it, i think we are all doomed, i would like to hear ur views..................

thebman

lol, cavity searches all round! :P

I don't know if there is much point talking about it yet. All we can do is speculate.

segaBOY

With the amount of public debt it's going to be tough.

ednwireland

well i guess they couldnt raise enough just out of raising taxes on the usual suspects so i guess cuts in front line services and benefit payements across the board are in order. mainly because thye cant grasp the fact that a lot of people have moved up the civil service structure ( happens in every large organistation ) what every other organisation does every 5 to 7 years is reorganise and cull middle and senior management ( happened twice in the 7 years i worked in rolls royce aerospace) unfortunately thats what needs to be doen but its not going to happen so front line services where the smallest dents to the budgets can be made and no touching of the management grades ( the turkeys wont vote for christmas). i've aalso revised my 30% salary cut of td's and senators to 50% but either of those isnt going to happen either

• Tax / Stealth tax increases

• VAT ? (needs to be lowered)

• Minimum wage decrease ? (bad idea if living costs go up)

• High salaries to be cut and new caps in place

• Drink & Cigarettes ? (put them up and you send more up north to buy them, less revenue here then)

• Petrol & Diesel ? (needs to come down, if they put it up it will be a bad mistake, everything will go)

• VRT on new cars ? (should not be put up, needs to be got rid of to be honest to boost car sales)

• Welfare ? (should not touched)

• Something should be done to lower rents in the retail sector

• Something needs to be done to lower price of goods in the retail / grocery sectors in order to boost sales and bring back the money that is been lost each week with shoppers going up north

• Money to foreign aid needs to be lowered, or ever better stop it for the next 12 months

Everything needs to come down but with this current government I think they will just put everything up, if this is the case it will be the worst mistake ever.

silverharp

hellboy99 wrote: »

[*]VRT ? (should not be put up, needs to be got rid of to be honest to boost car sales)

Why would you want to support imports? a very leaky way of creating business activity here

hellboy99 wrote: »

Minimum wage decrease ? (bad idea if living costs go up)

probably not a budget issue , but living costs should be dropping given that rents are such a large % of someone on minimum wage.

silverharp

silverharp wrote: »

Why would you want to support imports? a very leaky way of creating business activity here

I mean VRT on new cars purchased here in the south.

thebman

hellboy99 wrote: »

I mean VRT on new cars purchased here in the south.

I'm not sure its possible to rescue the car market here. We can't really ever be cheaper than the UK for selling cars. VRT is paid on imports too and you can't charge it on cars bought in the north but not in the south because that is distorting the market and the EU would not allow it I don't think.

I think a large problem is the abundance of second hand cars on the market and the increase in private sales that has come with the Internet. People don't trust dealers down here. Dealers could offer better warranties and better customer service and try to attract customers to them by giving them added peace of mind over buying up North but I've not really seen any initiatives of this kind.

I'm not against it (if it would help, I'd say go nuts), I'm just asking will it actually have any effect?

You have to look at the failing car industries in other countries to see that car sales are down everywhere and car companies are going under because of what I would put down to over supply in the market. There are too many new cars in the backlog and too many used cars to choose from. Prices should come down as a result and have. They still aren't selling.

I think people don't want to commit to a purchase of that size in a recession and are opting to purchase older, cheaper cars or keep what they have. That way no loans are required and they still have money left over for the rainy day that is coming (storms only brewing yet IMO).

A lot of the problem is that they weren't prepared for the credit crunch so now you have car manufacturers with large numbers of luxury vehicles like SUV's in their warehouses and no market for them. People want cheaper transport. This is the perfect time for a green car company to start up in the country really offering commuter cars that have lower running costs and are much cheaper than standard cars. The government might be better to encourage this to start by not having VRT on these style vehicles IMO.

r0nanf

hellboy99 wrote: »

• ...or ever better stop it for the next 12 months

That's harsh - we can still afford to give foreign aid

Sleepy

One thing I definitely expect to see in the next few months is an annual NCT on cars over a certain age. Great regressive stealth tax because it can be dressed up as a safety measure.

silverharp

thebman wrote: »

I'm not sure its possible to rescue the car market here.

just to add that I remember reading that the average age of a car in the US is 8 years, in Ireland the "fleet" is going to be more like 4 or 5 years (guess) , people are quite rightly going to make do for the next few years by cutting back on consumer debt

r0nanf

r0nanf wrote: »

That's harsh - we can still afford to give foreign aid

Yes it sounds harsh, but to be fair these are unprecedented times and we need to worry about our country first, as the saying goes "charity begins at home".

NewDubliner

hellboy99 wrote: »

Yes it sounds harsh, but to be fair these are unprecedented times and we need to worry about our country first, as the saying goes "charity begins at home".

Instead of sending money, we could send skilled/unemployed people to help them.

mattman

as a small rural publican we sell a pint of guinness for 3.8
and heineken for 4.

if they hit the drink...they might as well shut down "another" 1000 pubs.

and another 3000 people on the dole.

i voted this gov. in...makes me sick...

NEVER NEVER NEVER AGAIN.

m.

Tech3

Serious decisions need to be made:



- bring down VAT to 15% rate on goods

- reduce the social welfare to 140 euro a week

- increase the income levy from 1% to 4% on lower rate

- 44% for higher rate of tax

- 48% for earners over 100,000

- cut 1 billion off infrastructure projects

- increase petrol 8 cents extra

- decrease diesel tax by 8 cent

- terminate the RSA(not needed) and the NRA (no road projects for several years)

- trim local athourities. (road and rail designs not needed in the short term)

- severe cuts in the amount of tds also reduce pay of current tds by 30%

jimmmy

tech2 wrote: »

Serious decisions need to be made:



- bring down VAT to 15% rate on goods

- reduce the social welfare to 140 euro a week

- increase the income levy from 1% to 4% on lower rate

- 44% for higher rate of tax

- 48% for earners over 100,000

- cut 1 billion off infrastructure projects

- increase petrol 8 cents extra

- decrease diesel tax by 8 cent

- terminate the RSA(not needed) and the NRA (no road projects for several years)

- trim local athourities. (road and rail designs not needed in the short term)

- severe cuts in the amount of tds also reduce pay of current tds by 30%

Some valid suggestions. I agree that like any household or business where expenditure greatly exceeds income, spending needs to be looked at, bigtime.

fly_agaric

jimmmy wrote: »

Some valid suggestions. I agree that like any household or business where expenditure greatly exceeds income, spending needs to be looked at, bigtime.

reducing the scratcher by 30 % and the old age pension by 40 % - somewhat harsh one might say?

Whatever bollox might be spoken about our much-heralded "deflation" at the moment, I don't think that food & fuel are going to go down by 40 % in cost this year! I predict a riot!

Tech3

fly_agaric wrote: »

reducing the scratcher by 30 % and the old age pension by 40 % - somewhat harsh one might say?

Whatever bollox might be spoken about our much-heralded "deflation" at the moment, I don't think that food & fuel are going to go down by 40 % in cost this year! I predict a riot!

reducing VAT and diesel is going to reduce the cost of living

we then need lower social welfare to match that

not harsh to my eyes

old age pension?

Sleepy

tech2 wrote: »

Serious decisions need to be made:



- bring down VAT to 15% rate on goods

- reduce the social welfare to 140 euro a week

- increase the income levy from 1% to 4% on lower rate

- 44% for higher rate of tax

- 48% for earners over 100,000

- cut 1 billion off infrastructure projects

- increase petrol 8 cents extra

- decrease diesel tax by 8 cent

- terminate the RSA(not needed) and the NRA (no road projects for several years)

- trim local athourities. (road and rail designs not needed in the short term)

- severe cuts in the amount of tds also reduce pay of current tds by 30%

Why the increase on petrol while decreasing petrol? Seems a bit regressive if you ask me, most of us driving older cars would be hit whilst those that could afford to upgrade to the newer diesel cars would be getting a tax break...

irish_bob

Sleepy wrote: »

Why the increase on petrol while decreasing petrol? Seems a bit regressive if you ask me, most of us driving older cars would be hit whilst those that could afford to upgrade to the newer diesel cars would be getting a tax break...

if diesel comes down further in price , all one has to do is change thier petrol for a diesel , cars are for nothing at the moment so its no big deal

Sleepy

lol, irish_bob, you're kind of proving my point there. Changing one's car is a luxury many of us can't afford at the moment. The entire reason the car industry is in trouble is that despite the fact that cars (both new and secondhand) are relatively cheap, people still can't afford to change theirs.

Tech3

Sleepy wrote: »

Why the increase on petrol while decreasing petrol? Seems a bit regressive if you ask me, most of us driving older cars would be hit whilst those that could afford to upgrade to the newer diesel cars would be getting a tax break...

The cost of products can relate to the cost of transport. Trucks which carry the goods use diesel. We need a new lower motor tax band on these also and lighter toll charges.

Lower VAT allows for more income tax and stealth taxes such as petrol prices.

Anyway regarding old cars people will be hit even more with new proposals of a NCT every year required for cars 10 years or older.

fly_agaric

tech2 wrote: »

Right reducing VAT and diesel is going to reduce the cost of living

we then need lower social welfare to match that

The cost of living (esp. food & fuel/energy) isn't going to come down by 30 % let alone 40 %.

tech2 wrote: »

not harsh to my eyes

old age pension?

Hate to think what would be "harsh" in your eyes so...
I mentioned the old age pension because it would be a common "social welfare" payment > EUR140 pw (you said that you'd reduce "welfare" to EUR140 pw).

thebman

You have a problem with reducing VAT, it does not guarantee price reductions by the same percentage you cut VAT as retailers can take a little extra for themselves.

Macha

tech2 wrote: »

- cut 1 billion off infrastructure projects

- terminate the RSA(not needed) and the NRA (no road projects for several years)

- trim local athourities. (road and rail designs not needed in the short term)

There is the argument that if capital and investment is not made by the public sector (at a time when the private sector cannot make such investments) the whole economy goes down the drain.

I would argue that investment in infrastructure projects has a few benefits:
- increased employment
- stimulate the econmy (multiplier effect, etc etc)
- a good time to get good value from money from suppliers

What about lowering minimum wage and widening the tax base?

If anything is done to prop up the property market I'll be furious.

Tech3

fly_agaric wrote: »

The cost of living (esp. food & fuel/energy) isn't going to come down by 30 % let alone 40 %

Energy is coming down in the effects of electricity. ESB are dropping their prices by 10% and bord gais are offering 10 lower than that. Its going to be a slow process and will take a few years get the full effect of it. The price of fuel is still relatively low compared to the record high levels of last year.

Hate to think what would be "harsh" in your eyes so...
I mentioned the old age pension because it would be a common "social welfare" payment > EUR140 pw (you said that you'd reduce "welfare" to EUR140 pw).

This wouldnt be a straight cut after April. I think it should be gradually decreased over the course of the year. Were billions in debt people need to realise that.

fly_agaric

tech2 wrote: »

Its going to be a slow process and will take a few years get the full effect of it.

The price of food (which you did not mention) will not decrease by a large amount imo. The 10 % electricity discount from bord gais is as good as the fall in energy prices will get this year.

I think the ESB have frozen their prices for 2009 (woot:rolleyes:). They also awarded wage increases to their (some might say quite well paid:)) staff http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0130/pay.html. Money for that has to come from somewhere and cutting the price of a unit of energy won't help!
The govt will want to keep prices up at a certain level anyway (& ESB coffers nice & fat) to encourge "competition in the energy market":rolleyes:.

Would it not be safer to wait and see if these big falls in the cost of living actually materialise before making these very large cuts to social welfare payments?

tech2 wrote: »

Were billions in debt people need to realise that.

So we make people depending on social welfare payments suffer the most by far? Reduce people to misery?

I make it that a person on a large wage (say, 300k per year for example) will sacrifice an extra 6 % or so to the govt. under your tax scheme so it seems quite unjust.

Tech3

fly_agaric wrote: »

Would it not be safer to wait and see if these big falls in the cost of living actually materialise before making these very large cuts to social welfare payments?

No it needs to be reduced for at least single people. 204 euro is way too much. 140 a week for people like this is affordable.

So we make people depending on social welfare payments suffer the most by far? Reduce people to misery

Enough to survive that is what is required. You look at the 50 pounds a week in the U.K for example enough to survive. 204 euro is too much for a single person drawing the dole.

I make it that a person on a large wage (say, 300k per year for example) will sacrifice an extra 6 % or so to the govt. under your tax scheme so it seems quite unjust.

That is the capitalist world for you. It wont be much different from what it is now, the rich have and will always get a better deal under right wing policies. Also I cant see the government imposing anything more than 50% on wages above 100,000.

jos28

The Government have to encourage spending, higher taxation for those still in work will NOT do that.
VAT rate should be reduced
VRT should be brought in line with other EU countries, the Government will still be collecting the vat on new car sales and it will help keep car dealers in work.
The other thing I would like to see introduced is considerable (10-20%) tax relief on personal loans. Back in the real recession in the 80s, you could claim tax relief on ALL loans. This would encourage people to spend money on renovating their property and facilitate job creation.
For example; Just think of one normal house extension, (budget of €30-40k)and the amount of work it would generate -
Architects
Builders
Plumbers
Electricians
Plasterers
Carpenters etc
Again the VAT would be collected from all the materials bought and it would help keep the dole figures down. The scheme could effectively pay for itself.

NewDubliner

jos28 wrote: »

The Government have to encourage spending, higher taxation for those still in work will NOT do that.

Lowering VAT would also encourage purchase of imported goods. Not good for the balance of payments deficit & more cars and appliances just increases our carbon footprint. Encouraging people to spend money on house renovations is just a short-term stimulus for the local building workers. Same goes for the desperate 'scrappage' scheme ideas being touted by the motor traders.

The idea of tax relief for personal consumption loans is crazy, we need to discourage unproductive personal debt. Tax relief should only be given for loans use to set up export or foreign-tourist oriented business or which reduces our dependency on foreign goods.

We need measures that bring foreign money into the economy, not measures that slosh local money around.

Sqaull20

tech2 wrote: »

Serious decisions need to be made:

- 44% for higher rate of tax

- 48% for earners over 100,000

- increase petrol 8 cents extra

- decrease diesel tax by 8 cent

Why is it you always hear people shouting about the need to raise tax on the wealthy that own and keep businesses going, do these people realize one thing?

That these companies ( yeah they pay tax :pac: ) don't want to see their profits drop and how do they make sure that it doesn't drop when taxes are already ridiculous for them and their sales are low?

You guessed it, they start sacking people and then people complain about companies outsourcing jobs :rolleyes:

What incentive is their for these employers to keep their labour in the Ireland if it is too expensive to employ the necessary workforce and paye huge taxes?

Name an incentive, I would love to learn something new today!

Raising Diesel lol, few more people sacked to pay that!

Dropping everything is the way to go, goverment have enough money and need to learn how to use it properly.Too many senior staff/supervisors or whatever they are called in every department who do **** all and need to actually work.They need to help the economy as a whole out by lowering **** and forget about themselves.

Dudess

Anyone reckon dole will be cut?

zootroid

Sqaull20 wrote: »

Why is it you always hear people shouting about the need to raise tax on the wealthy that own and keep businesses going, do these people realize one thing?

That these companies ( yeah they pay tax :pac: ) don't want to see their profits drop and how do they make sure that it doesn't drop when taxes are already ridiculous for them and their sales are low?

You guessed it, they start sacking people and then people complain about companies outsourcing jobs :rolleyes:

What incentive is their for these employers to keep their labour in the Ireland if it is too expensive to employ the necessary workforce and paye huge taxes?

Name an incentive, I would love to learn something new today!

Raising Diesel lol, few more people sacked to pay that!

Dropping everything is the way to go, goverment have enough money and need to learn how to use it properly.Too many senior staff/supervisors or whatever they are called in every department who do **** all and need to actually work.They need to help the economy as a whole out by lowering **** and forget about themselves.

If you read tech2's post correctly you will see that he said decrease the tax on diesel. This would be a positive move in my opinion, it might help lower (albeit very slightly) the cost of goods, as they are now being delivered to shops etc at a lower cost. Having worked for a distribution company, the two main costs we faced were labour and diesel.

Also, you mention you are against raising taxes on the wealthy, presumably in response to the suggested 3rd tax band at 48%? Companies do not pay income tax, they pay corporation tax. And all indications are that the rate of corporation tax will remain untouched. In your arguement, it is only the salary the owner of a company draws that will be taxed at a higher rate. And that's only if he earns above 100k.

I for one would be in favour in such a tax. People on low incomes don't save much (if at all). Taking money out of they're pockets will harm the economy). People on high incomes save, and can afford the luxuries in life, like foreign holidays etc. Taxing them more will help keep money in the economy.

zootroid

Dudess wrote: »

Anyone reckon dole will be cut?

I think it might be cut, but only marginally, say 5 euro. I think they will point to deflation as their arguement for doing so.

I think the government will cut down heavily on tax reliefs, and other social welfare payments.

Tech3

Sqaull20 wrote: »

Raising Diesel lol, few more people sacked to pay that!

Dropping everything is the way to go, goverment have enough money and need to learn how to use it properly.Too many senior staff/supervisors or whatever they are called in every department who do **** all and need to actually work.They need to help the economy as a whole out by lowering **** and forget about themselves.

If you read my post correctly you will see I asked for a decrease in diesel prices. I cant really make out the rest of your post tbh.