Cheltenham Day 1 -Tuesday 10th March

thewools

Instead of having several topics - lets Group all comments / analysis / bets for CHELTENHAM DAY 1 only please.

Races are as follows:

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 13:30
Arkle Chase - 14:05
William Hill Trophy H'cap - 14:40
Smurfit Champion Hurdle - 15:20
Cross Country H'cap Chase - 16:00
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle - 16:40

I will set up the other days asap...

Best of luck....:cool:

mrsdoylesteapot

People generally post a staking plan from tipsters around this time of year. Has the recession taken it's toll?

I have heard Red Moloney heavily tipped in the first (supreme novices at about 10/1.

Bluetonic

For those with restricted access, the overnight cards.

Bluetonic

...and the last one (as restricted to five attachments per post...)

oppiuy

What do you guys reckon about hobbs hill tomorrow in the william hill.. Its an old fav of mine and looks a decent price

prendy

Bluetonic wrote: »

...and the last one (as restricted to five attachments per post...)

good stuff blue tonic. Can have a propper look at work after lunch!

careca

Leaving work in ten mins to head over for first two days. Can't wait :P

Tomorrow.

Cousin Vinny (with a small saver on Kempes)
Kalahari king
Garde Champetre
Quevega.

haven;t a clue in Champion but it won't be Binocular. Not a clue either in handicap chase.

Good luck all.

Whyno

careca wrote: »

Leaving work in ten mins to head over for first two days. Can't wait :P

Tomorrow.

Cousin Vinny (with a small saver on Kempes)
Kalahari king
Garde Champetre
Quevega.

haven;t a clue in Champion but it won't be Binocular. Not a clue either in handicap chase.

Good luck all.

Have a good one and win lots

mike65

Gone for Planet Of Sound e/w in the Arkle Chase

Trankton

1st Golan Way 25-1 has won 4 of its last 5 and its most recent win was at Cheltenham.
2nd Calgary Bay 5-1 McCoy on board and most recent win at Cheltenham in Jan.
3rd Nenupher Colognes 16-1 2 of its last 3 wins have been at Cheltenham and Choc Thornton on board

NewApproach

Will back Red Moloney ew despite the possible soft ground.

Brave Inca/Punjabi ew in the Champion Hurdle, laying Crack Away Jack big time.

Laying Calgary Bay in the Arkle, along with a smaller lay of Tatanen.

Quegeva looks rock solid in the Mares race, while A New Story has a lot going for him in the x-country against the even money Bolger pair.

mike65

Sizing Europe out of tomorrows Smurfit Kappa

corban

mike65 wrote: »

Sizing Europe out of tomorrows Smurfit Kappa

whats your nap tomorrow mike?

Warper

Doumens - Millenium Royal in the WH Handicap Chase - 12-1 - Big fancy
Caroles Legacy - Henderson/McCoy - David Nicholsons Mares - 16-1

Both e/w

shiibata

Anything Ferdy Murphy puts out 3m+, I will be on it, has paid well this last few years for me.

mike65

corban wrote: »

whats your nap tomorrow mike?

The only bet for tomorrow is Planet of Sound at e/w prices, I havn't really looked at NAP to be honest. I'll wait for the morning going report, it looks like being on the soft side of good at fastest, could be soft.

edit I forgot Arkle Trophy - Calgary Bay, call that my nap!

corban

mike65 wrote: »

The only bet for tomorrow is Planet of Sound at e/w prices, I havn't really looked at NAP to be honest. I'll wait for the morning going report, it looks like being on the soft side of good at fastest, could be soft.

edit I forgot Arkle Trophy - Calgary Bay, call that my nap!

will wait till the morning myself before i make my selections...... its a superstition.... best of luck...

thewools

mike65 wrote: »

The only bet for tomorrow is Planet of Sound at e/w prices, I havn't really looked at NAP to be honest. I'll wait for the morning going report, it looks like being on the soft side of good at fastest, could be soft.

edit I forgot Arkle Trophy - Calgary Bay, call that my nap!

Are you a bit - only bet tomorrow is Planet of sound but your Nap is Calgary Bay

Both run in the Arkle... :P

Been looking at this race and I think people are overlooking Tatenen. LTO in Punchenstown the pace was poor and was beaten at short odds. However had he won that race I would expect him to be at much shorter odds than the 4/1 he is at the moment. Also won on the soft at Cheltenham previously will helps me point in his direction.

Planet of sound - might be having a small saver on there.. Not sure yet!!

mike65

I did Planet of Sound a while back at longer odds. Calagary Bay I think has a real shout if a bit of rain arrives overnight, just a bit of juice would be fine.

Here are my card picks (subject to random change!)

Michael Flips
Calagary Bay
Witichta Lineman
Osana (edit - its not soft enough for Brave Inca)
L'ami
United.

oppiuy

mike65 wrote: »

I did Planet of Sound a while back at longer odds. Calagary Bay I think has a real shout if a bit of rain arrives overnight, just a bit of juice would be fine.

Here are my card picks (subject to random change!)

Michael Flips
Calagary Bay
Witichta Lineman
Brave Inca (rain let it rain!)
L'ami
United.

Im liking hobbs hill in the arkle, the more i look at it

RasTa

Who is that tipper from that other forum for the past two years, good for an long shot.

mike65

Traibarn/Trabian something like that.

Found him

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?p=195754#post195754

Colonel Sanders

Timeform ratings for tomorrow:

1.30
COUSIN VINNY 167P
TORPICHEN 156P
MICHEAL FLIPS 156
MEDERMIT 154
KEMPES 153P
GO NATIVE 152P
AINAMA 151+

2.05
IMSINGINGTHEBLUES 168
CALGARY BAY 163P
FORPADYDEPLASTERER 163
TANTENEN 162+
FOLLOW THE PLAN 162
MADE IN TAIPAN 161
PANJO BERE 161
TARTAK 160

2.40
STAR DE MOHAISON 174
POSSOL 174
CAILIN ALAINN 174X
PATSY HALL 172
OLLIE MAGERN 172$
MALJIMAR 170

3.20 champion hurdle
BINOCULAR 180P
OSANA 173
CELESTIAL HALO 172
PUNJABI 172
HARCHIBALD 171$
SUBLIMITY 171
MUIRHEAD 170

4.00
L'AMI 165
A NEW STORY 161
GARDE CHAMPETRE 159
DROMBEAG 159
PASS ME BY 158$
FLORIDA DREAM 158X

4.40
UNITED 163
CHOMBA WOMBA 162
SWEETHEART 160
GIVE IT TIME 160
QUEVEGA 159P
OSCAR REBEL 159
DANSIMAR 158
AMBER BROOK 157
GASPARA 156

Binocular a big negative in the Champion, out to 15/8. Cousin Vinny weak too.

Kempes and Pipe's being backed in the supreme

Forpady very strong in the arkle

Celestial Halo and Osana being backed ew against the jolly in the Champion

Some excellent value with the bookies this year, most horses in the first half dozen in the betting are similar prices than on Betfair. Most guaranteeing odds, offering money back specials etc also

chinguetti

Two things for betting, whats the ground like and what has at least placed form at Cheltenham in the last 12 to 18 months. They were giving 10 mm of rain today and they've had no rain thus far. All these horses going in and out in the betting can be ignored until the morning.

Each way is the way to go tomorrow. Now only the Racing Post go I

carrigeen

mrsdoylesteapot wrote: »

People generally post a staking plan from tipsters around this time of year. Has the recession taken it's toll?

I have heard Red Moloney heavily tipped in the first (supreme novices at about 10/1.

rain tonight will seriously effect its chances

Morrisseeee

1. KEMPES
2. FORPADDYTHE......
3. WITCHETA LINEMAN
4. BRAVE INCA
5. DIX VILLEZ
6. UNITED

Tubberadora

Michael Flips
Golden Silver
Witcheta Lineman
Celestial Halo
L'Ami
Quevaga

NewApproach

carrigeen wrote: »

rain tonight will seriously effect its chances

He has good form on soft from the flat, could be said his best form was with some give. He has yet no encounter soft ground over hurdles, but no reason why it should be a major negative for me...

callaway92

13:30 Go Native
14:05 Tatenen
15:20 White Oak
16:40 Quevega

Degag

Trainbairns thesis is here.... http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread33136.html

Crash Bang Wall

I see our friends at PP have a money back special on Cousin Vinny. If it wins money back on singles and e.w.

mob

Tuesdays Yankee:
1.30 Cousin Vinny 9/4
2.05 Calgary Bay 11/2
2.40 Comply or Die 33/1
3.20 Binocular 13/8

there the prices i did it at earlier today some have probably changed by now comply or die is a fav of mine.

evil_seed

13:30: Red Moloney
14:05: Forpadydeplasterer
14:40 - comply or die
15:20 - Sublimity
16:40: Quevega

mike65

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

I see our friends at PP have a money back special on Cousin Vinny. If it wins money back on singles and e.w.

A bookie is a punters friend in the way a pimp is a hookers boyfriend!

trainbairn

Is it that time of year again already?. Time for the best four days sport anywhere on the planet, and probably the solar system as well with as usual plenty of questions that require answers. Are the rest of his rivals wasting their time turning up in the Champion Chase such is Master Minded’s grip on that race? Will Binocular get up the hill in the Champion Hurdle in front?. Those are just two of the questions we will find out the answers to this week that will see the same amount wagered per race that Christiano Ronaldo earns in a year. I am sure the traditionalists will all be up in arms about the thought of a race purely for conditional jockeys, but they are probably the same people who reckon its not a real Epsom Derby because it is run on a Saturday rather than the Wednesday of days gone by and moan about how Wagon Wheels are a lot smaller than they were in their day.

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
The race that some pundits have almost given up as a banker of the meeting in Cousin Vinny, but would you honestly be lumping on a horse in the first race of the meeting?. He did win the bumper at last year’s meeting but fails on two of the main trends for this race in that he didn’t win last time out and also ran less than a month ago so I have to oppose him on those grounds alone, even before his jockey’s ability or lack of it as some pundits have been unkind to opine in at least one preview night recently. Where do we look if not at him then?.
Torphichen, apart from being a little village not that far from where I live, is second favourite and again has two stats to overcome. He is a four year old, and only one horse has won this race from that age group in the last ten years and that was the French-bred
Hors La Loi. Also with a last run less than a month ago, he fails on the rest time stat as well. Another thing that can be pointed out about him as a negative, is that he has raced almost exclusively right-handed and therefore we have no way of knowing if he will be as good going this way round. With such negatives I have to be against him at the current prices. Michael Flips is also prominent in the betting and whilst he does pass the rest time test, his price owes much to punters having backed him when it looked like AP McCoy was going to ride him. With the champion riding Ainama for his retained owner JP McManus, and Mark Grant riding Michael Flips then the Turnell runner has to be avoided at these prices.

Ainama took a walk in the betting after being beaten at Kempton last time out, but I couldn’t have this one on my mind anyway given Nicky Henderson’s poor win record in this race in recent times. Go Native and Red Moloney are also negatives with the rest time from their last race, and I am also not convinced Go Native has beaten anything of note as yet in his race whilst I cannot have a Musselburgh winner winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle so the Johnson runner gets the heave as well.

So, having dismissed the chances of plenty of the shorter priced runners who all fail on the three main trends I use for picking the winner(more than month off, Irish trained and winner last time out), which horse gets the seal of approval as passing the stat test?. There is actually only one horse that passes all three stats and that horse is the “second string” of Willie Mullins namely Kempes who has been very well supported in recent weeks. He was tipped up by Pricewise at 33/1 very early as a lively outsider and with the fact Ruby Walsh rides, added to the continuing gamble that has seen him contract into 12/1 now I have to be with him. He has only has two runs so far for the Mullins stable but was a reasonable flat horse for Frances Crowley. On his last run, I was most impressed with the way he travelled and jumped that day and he has form on both soft and better ground, and at around 12/1 he will be my only bet in the race and be 1pt e/w to start the day on a good note before we really get stuck into the rest of the races.

2.05 Arkle Trophy
I have already had an 2pt Win Only Ante-Post bet at 6/1 in this race on a horse that I see being the next horse to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning multiple Gold Cups in years to come, and will be astonished if it is beaten here. The best jumper of a steeplechase fence that I have seen in years has to be Henrietta Knight’s Calgary Bay who is tremendous value here at 11/2. He is two from three at Cheltenham, including his spectacular win here on New Years Day, albeit over further than the trip he faces here of 2m. However, in his favour is that if we look back at the history of the race, you have usually needed a horse that is at least capable of staying 2m4f plus to win this and his stamina and jumping ability will put him in the race where AP wants him to be. The fact that the trainer has been able to get McCoy for this horse is a massive plus in my opinion also given that he will make the horse run better than Dominic Elesworth. Don’t get me wrong I like the young jockey a lot, and wouldn’t have any qualms about him riding one I fancy but there is only one champion jockey and I was expecting his presence on the horse to contract the price but that hasn’t happened which is surprising.
I cant have Tatenen at the likely prices as the form of his win over C&D hasn’t worked out and he didn’t beat much that day(Straw Bear is a shadow of the horse that had been a leading contender for the Champion Hurdle two years ago and Crescent Island needs a big field to be seen at his best). I always think that Paul Nicholls runners are always over-hyped, especially his Novice chasers, and it is worth remembering that his Noland was the favourite for this very race last season before finishing third behind Tidal Bay.
Of the others, I am also against I’msingingtheblues for the same reason as Tatenen in as much as he is a Nicholls trained novice chaser and is priced up on trainer rather than form book reckoning, Forpaddydeplasterer is an absolute dog who just doesn’t want to win(how can he be half the odds of Golden Silver when that rival has already beaten him?), and Planet of Sound looked to have the Grand Annual at his mercy but will he has as good a chance in this?. As already mentioned Golden Silver looks to be a lively outsider, having been rested since beating Forpaddydeplasterer at Leopardstown back at the end of January. It shouldn’t be seen as a negative that Ruby Walsh rides him as Paul Towend has been on board on the horse’s last two runs and at 20/1 I would stake 0.5pts each way on him at 20/1 along with one other Irish runner who looks overpriced at 33/1 in the shape of Edward O’Grady’s Bringbackthebiff who might look like a no-hoper on form, but I was impressed with the way he has travelled and jumped in his races so far since joining his current stable(Was trained in New Zealand previously) and at the prices rates a small e/w interest under the very talented Andrew McNamara.

2.40 William Hill Trophy
So after a couple of novice events, we get into the first of the handicaps of the week and a chance to back two horses, both for 1pt e/w, who have been previous Festival winners and have shown definite form under the unique conditions this marvellous week demands of its combatants.
Firstly, I have to be against Wichita Lineman who looks a little paceless and also is up against it with Jonjo’s terrible record in handicap chases at the festival in recent years(0-32). Might stay on for a place but can’t believe he didn’t wait a day to run him in the four miler. I also have to be against the French raider Millennium Royal who is one that I believe has to be racing on a flat track to be seen at his best so will not handle conditions here with the undulations of the Prestbury park course not suiting him.
Talking of French runners though, both my fancies are French bred though. The main bet, at 10/1 is Paul Nicholls trained top weight Star de Mohaison who has a Cheltenham record of: 3311324 (2 wins and a second from seven runs over this track).
If we take out his runs in single figure fields then that record reads: 1st-Won Sun Alliance Chase three seasons ago, 1st-won a handicap hurdle on his seasonal reappearance two seasons ago and 2nd-beaten half a length by Mon Mome at the December meeting this season with nineteen lengths back to third placed Possol who re-opposes here on just two pounds worse terms so should again finish ahead of that runner and whilst top weights do struggle to win this race, I think he is a cracking bet to at least collect on the place part of the bet and give Ruby Walsh his second winner of the day in the first three races.

The second selection, comes from the Alan King yard, and is last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Nenuphar Collonges who has a record at the track of :211 (2 -3) with the 2nd being behind Razor Royale over a trip too short. Despite the fact that he looks stamina laden, I think his last two runs have come over two far a trip and that this 3m trip is exactly what he wants and is in the right weight range based on the stats from previous years, so again rates excellent value at 18/1 in a race that, for a festival handicap isn’t loaded with unexposed runners so go with proven festival form in the two selected runners and either one places, then a very small loss may be made on the race but only minimal.


3.20 Champion Hurdle
Onto the big one, and another one of the so called bankers of the meeting in Binocular. If you got on him at about 5/1 or bigger then well done, but I cant have him at the current prices in a race like this. There are doubts about whether he gets up the Cheltenham hill, to say nothing of the fact that Katchit last year aside, five year olds do not have a good record in this race so there is that statistical angle to look at as well. His two runs this year have taught us nothing more than the horse has four legs still in working order as he beat absolute trees at Haydock and Celestial Halo is not Champion Hurdle class by any stretch of the imagination in my mind so Binocular beating him at Ascot doesn’t have much credence to these eyes. If taking him on what do we go with then?

First thing to say is six of his rivals can be discounted simply by age, all being five year olds. Crack Away Jack, Askhazar, Celestial Halo, Othermix, Won in the Dark and River Lianne. Going to the opposite end of the age spectrum, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace,Harchibald, Alph, Cybergenic also get ruled out being in double figure ages which leaves us just half the field to concern ourselves with and I will be backing two in the race at double figure odds each way to split stakes to turn a profit in the race.

Starting with last years winner Katchit who hasn’t sparkled so far this year but I feel that can be put down to the fact he hasn’t raced at his beloved Cheltenham yet. On the flat tracks he has raced on so far this season he needs 2m4f according to his trainer so a return to the more testing track here will suit. Reports out the King yard have been encouraging in recent weeks and if he is revitalised by running here then at 14/1 he is cracking each way value with 1pt each way being the stake again.

The other selection, at massive odds, has to go to another Willie Mullins inmate in my old friend Ebaziyan who is 66/1 but if putting his best foot forward is not that far behind the rest of the raiding party from the Emerald Isle since he has his ideal conditions today. His best form has all come in races where there has been a dozen or more runners. Under those conditions, his record reads: 22181211100(5 wins and two 2nd placed efforts from eleven runs) and both the duck eggs came at last years festival. I am of the opinion that his trainer over raced him last year(his Champion Hurdle run came on his seventh start of the campaign) on desperate ground so the fact that he has only had two runs this season is a positive for me as he will be a fresh horse, despite only running nine days ago. If the Supreme Novice’s Ebazyian turned up he would be a strong fancy to get in the three and I always take the downbeat comments from his trainer with a pinch of salt as he is one of the canniest trainers around in playing down his horses chances. Because of the high regard I have for the horse I will be staking 1pt e.w on both Katchit and Ebazyian at the prices.

4.00 Cross Country Chase

A race the Irish have farmed since it’s inception and I will be backing two horses each way here, one 1pt e/w and one just 0.5pt e/w given the relative prices of both them.

At the front end of the market, I will take Dix Villez from the in form Paul Nolan yard at 7/1. I really cannot see this one not being in the first three if reproducing the form of his controversial win here earlier in the season, and that showed he had an aptitude for this idiosyncratic course and discipline. His yard has had two winners from their last four runners, and in a race where the famous McManus colours are synonymous with success the only thing it does for their runners this year is make them over-bet and under priced so the only value left is with the Nolan runner in my opinion.

At massive odds, I would just take a little chance that being reunited with the jockey who knows him best in Barry Cash brings about some return to form for the rank outsider Benefit Night and he can run into a place at around 50/1. The jockey of course has already ridden a Festival winner when partnering Brave Inca to victory in the Supreme Novices all those years ago but appears to have fallen a little of fashion with trainers and punters alike in recent years.Very little recommends this horse on form but the jockey booking does catch my eye and there will be worse bets than throwing away a point on this runner, despite his recent form looking more like an alphabet than a formbook with all those letters in it.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
With likely favourite Whiteoak defecting to the Champion Hurdle, I will take the view that last year’s third Chomba Womba is too big a price at 7/1 to see not being in the frame.
She was in the shake up last year when just being run out of things approaching the last and in what looks a less competitive renewal this year, she does just look like the each way bet to nothing here at the prices currently available.


So there we have it, the first day’s racing looked at and the following bets being placed

Kempes 1pt e/w
Calgary Bay(already placed 2pts Win Ante-Post)/Bringbackthebiff(0.5 e/w)/Golden Silver 2x 0.5pt e/w
Star De Mohaison/Nenuphar Collonges 2x 1pt e/w
Katchit/ Ebazyian 2x 1pt e/w
Dix Villez 1pt e/w/ Benefit Night 0.5pt e/w
Chomba Womba 1pt e/w
Total staked:19pts

Best of luck with whatever you bet this week and please let all the horses come home safe and sound and in one piece

Steven

siobhan.murphy

Celestial Halo 7/1
L'ami 9/4
Quevega 5/2
Hobbs Hill 40/1

my lucky 15:D
will need a bit of luck but what the hell!
enjoy day 1 of the festival all;);)

RedPeppers

SNH - Kempes
ARKLE - Golden Silver
CH -Binocular
CCC - L'Ami
Mares Race - Quevega

All in all i can see Willie Mullins having a great day
My pick for top trainer also.
Seen him do an interview in At The Races today, he is very confident,
says he had by far the best horses going to the festival this year than ever.

allthedoyles

Lads , don't get carried away backing Irish Horses to win..........just look at the statistics .............

Of course you can certainly back Irish Jockey's

thewools

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

I see our friends at PP have a money back special on Cousin Vinny. If it wins money back on singles and e.w.

Using PP for this race - and this race only!! Betfair for every other bet.

1p E/W on Kempes @10/1
1p E/W on Red Maloney @12/1

If Cousin Vinny wins then sure money back but I have a feeling he wont do it. Favorites dont have a good record in this race and it wont take much for the others to improve a great deal today....

Villain

Well I owe Hardy a bet especially at these odds, I got him at 390/1 on Betfair a few weeks ago and having seen him on the Gallops after Leopardstown I think he might have one more big race in him

mickos

Villain wrote: »

Well I owe Hardy a bet especially at these odds, I got him at 390/1 on Betfair a few weeks ago and having seen him on the Gallops after Leopardstown I think he might have one more big race in him

I put a small few euro on him at 100/1. He owes us nothing at this stage and I think the same. He just might have 1 big race left in him;)

rovers_runner

SN: Kempes (small win)
Arkle: Forpadydeplasterer (small win)
WH: Wichita Lineman (win)
CH: Katchit (E/W) Hardy (win) Brave Inca (win) - Hardy and Inca at big odds
4:00 Lami (win)
4:40 Comba Womba

Morrisseeee

Could someone update me, I'm in work, and haven't seen the going, have they seen very little rain at the track ie. nothing like the were predicting ?

thewools

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Could someone update me, I'm in work, and haven't seen the going, have they seen very little rain at the track ie. nothing like the were predicting ?

2mm last night...

Ground is officially Good-Soft (Soft in places).

siobhan.murphy

willie mullins not all that happy with cousin vinny just there on the morning line
price gone out to 4/1

aidankk

Today im going for

Couisin Vinnie 7/2

Millenium Royal 12/1 EW

Osana 12/1 EW

Lami 3/1, and maybe dreux 50/1 ew

Gaspara 25/1 EW

siobhan.murphy

hobbs hill just declared non runner

alibabba

lots of rain there this morning too i hear

prendy

aidankk wrote: »

Today im going for

Couisin Vinnie 7/2
Millenium Royal 12/1 EW

Osana 12/1 EW

Lami 3/1, and maybe dreux 50/1 ew

Gaspara 25/1 EW

cousin vinny hasnt travelled well, not eating and not in great shape according to mullins.

Aidric

prendy wrote: »

cousin vinny hasnt travelled well, not eating and not in great shape according to mullins.

I saw Ruby Walsh on The Morning Line this morning, he was saying Cousin Vinny looked in great nick. He's still a lay for me, Michael Flips wil be my bet in the race.

corban

from the following today:

1.30 cousin vinny w and ainama ew
2.05 kalahari king and golden silver ew
2.40 nenuphar collonges and dear villez ew
3.20 binocular w and punjabi ew
4.00 L'ami w Dix villez ew