The Arkle.

meriwether

Apologies for the lack of precise details on this, but my server is giving me gip, and I cant access the exact details as I type this (reciting from memory).

The Arkle looks wide open to me.

Firstly I cannot have Tatenen at 5/1.

He has beaten nothing (Straw Bear by 24l, wow), and was put in his place by Follow the plan in Leopardstown, while getting something like 11lb.

Then FTP lost in Leop again. He is now 25/1 in Hills.

I would consider him better on better ground, and he is unlikely to get Heavy at Festival.

As such I can see him beating Tatenen again. 25/1 is value if tatenen is a worthy 5/1.

The rest - Kalahari King, Calgary Bay, the form is all over the gaff since Gauvains win yesterday.

Anyone any thoughts?

Whyno

The ground is the big question mark wit this one.

Tatenen didnt give his runnin in the irish arkle @ christmas. I just cant believe thats how good he is. I`m sure we'll see his true melt come arkle day and he`ll jump and stay on up the hill in the mark of the new 2m champion.
Hes still a vey young horse compared to the rest of the field and its just possible that a trip across the sea wasnt his cup o tea. PLus havin the then sam thomas blink on him wouldnt have helped him either

None of the irish candidates really look anythin but ordinary so for the place i`m looking at i`msingintheblues and calagary bay. But jump great and stay so are live ew alternatives to tatanen.

RichieLawlor

Whyno wrote: »

Tatenen didnt give his runnin in the irish arkle .

i agree with this, Tatenen didnt give his running in the irish Arkle, mainly because he didnt run in it :P

corny

meriwether wrote: »

Firstly I cannot have Tatenen at 5/1.

I think Tatenan is great value at 5/1! The most likely winner in what is a very ordinary renewal.

wb

It's interesting that Tatenen is French Bred. Those horses have won seven of the past fourteen Arkle Chases - despite representing 25% of all runners.

It's fairly open to be honest, but I think Calgary Bay and Tatenen have the best chance.

Whyno

Pick me up before i fall Richie

You knew what i meant anyways....

meriwether

corny wrote: »

I think Tatenan is great value at 5/1! The most likely winner in what is a very ordinary renewal.

Really?

I just cant see it myself.

Thus far, he was in the middle to top tier of Juvenile hurdlers last year.
This year, he whipped Straw Bear by 24l. SB has now reverted to hurdles, which tells you a lot about his fence ability. For this he was put in at 5/2f for the Arkle.
And then he received something like 11lb in Leopardstown, went off 4/5, and was beaten, with a few horses behind close enough to suggest when the pull in weights is reversed, they shoudl overtake him in Cheltenham.

Its a very ordinary renewal of the Arkle.

RichieLawlor

meriwether wrote: »

Its a very ordinary renewal of the Arkle.

When was the last 'good' Arkle chase, Well Chiefs Arkle, perhaps Voy Por Ustedes

corny

meriwether wrote: »

Really?

I just cant see it myself.

Thus far, he was in the middle to top tier of Juvenile hurdlers last year.
This year, he whipped Straw Bear by 24l. SB has now reverted to hurdles, which tells you a lot about his fence ability. For this he was put in at 5/2f for the Arkle.
And then he received something like 11lb in Leopardstown, went off 4/5, and was beaten, with a few horses behind close enough to suggest when the pull in weights is reversed, they shoudl overtake him in Cheltenham.

Its a very ordinary renewal of the Arkle.

Obviously a repeat of his Leopardstown run would see him get stuffed but the Arkle is at Cheltenham. On the day he won there his time was near enough identical to Pablo de Charmail's time in a decent handicap later on the card. But Tatenen did it on the bridle and his jumping was visually very impressive over stiff fences. For a loose comparison Pablo is rated 153 now. I'd argue a repeat of that performance would make him very hard to beat.

No doubt he has questions to answer but i'd give him the benefit of the doubt last run and at 5/1 its worth the risk.

Whyno

RichieLawlor wrote: »

When was the last 'good' Arkle chase, Well Chiefs Arkle, perhaps Voy Por Ustedes

Has to be well chiefs Arkle.....Kicking King 2nd and then goes on to win gold cup and king george.Well chief 2nd to mighty moscow flyer in the CC the following year.
Der hasnt been an arkle of any decent quality since.

culline

reckon tatenen has the most talent in a poor field but price is short(largely based on jockey/trainer)

have a gut feeling though he wont have the resolve so mayb hobbs' planet of sound @10's maybe the one to look at...

il be shouting for FORPADYTHEPLASTER!cmon the irish!

mr.jingle

Original is a monster i think i'll be goin for him at around 20s for an each way bet. The form is all over the place but i was really impressed with him at Kempton and although its a different track and French Opera is not up to much but i think he'll improve bundles whether he does or not we have to wait and see but one things for sure i just can't have Tatenen at that price. I think i'msingingtheblues is the best of Nicholls horses in the race and he'd have to have a shout too