Major swing in favour of the Lisbon Treaty finds Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll

nesf

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0216/1233867938989.html?digest=1

Unsurprising really. The shift in the farmer's vote is the most interesting one for me.

K-9

nesf wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0216/1233867938989.html?digest=1

Unsurprising really. The shift in the farmer's vote is the most interesting one for me.

I expected this. It will be interesting to see polls after the Local and EU Elections.

The Corinthian

I'd like to think that this swing is as a result of people informing themselves properly, but I have a horrible feeling that the main reason is that we're economically in trouble and want curry favour with the EU in the hope that we'll get bailed out.

lostexpectation

misleading headlines all over the place, the questions is based on getting legal binding guarantees we haven't got,we don't know the details of, and are unlikley to get, (if even by 2010)

the poll is bogus.

Kama

Yeh the farmer shift is huge, on the rest I lean with lostexpectation, it seems a little like they assembled all the possible worries and said they didn't count, and then hoped for a herding effect by publishing it as 'what other people think'.

If I could mildly mock it a little:

'If there were guarantees that anything nasty that could possibly happen from Lisbon were legally impossible, and we threw in some toilet-trained bonsai kittenz, would you vote Yes?'

Poll Result: 51%

Spin: Major victory as Irish People Say Yes! :rolleyes:

dvpower

lostexpectation wrote: »

misleading headlines all over the place, the questions is based on getting legal binding guarantees we haven't got,we don't know the details of, and are unlikley to get, (if even by 2010)

the poll is bogus.

The guarantees were for the most part only ever going to be comfort blankets. But times have changed radically since the last referendum and people realise the the uncertainty brought on by another No vote would be detrimental.


Now lets get on with the real poll.

J.S. Pill

lostexpectation wrote: »

misleading headlines all over the place, the questions is based on getting legal binding guarantees we haven't got,we don't know the details of, and are unlikley to get, (if even by 2010)

the poll is bogus.

For want of a better word, this poll is a crock of sh!t. They're comparing the poll results for two very different questions.

The movements within groups are interesting and I suppose have some limited value is gauging general sentiment but all this still doesn't justify the triumphant headlines.

nesf

J.S. Pill wrote: »

For want of a better word, this poll is a crock of sh!t. They're comparing the poll results for two very different questions.

The movements within groups are interesting and I suppose have some limited value is gauging general sentiment but all this still doesn't justify the triumphant headlines.

I'd agree the headline is over the top, repeated the headline here merely for uniformity's sake.

What I find interesting is mainly the farmers who were voting no for very specific reasons which weren't, generally speaking, down to abortion, commissioners etc (i.e. Mandleson's recall a factor?).

nesf

I decided to look at the poll in November to see how different it was to this one for comparison purposes. The question asked seems to be similar:

In the poll, people were asked how they would vote if the treaty was modified to allow Ireland to retain an EU commissioner and other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation were clarified in special declarations.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1117/1226700659487.html


So the two polls might actually be comparable in that the questions are essentially the same. Though I'd agree with lostexpectation that it's asking a question about a hypothetical situation that isn't at the moment real.


To allow some more examination:

Newest Poll wrote:

Among the most well-off AB voters, the Yes side now has a commanding lead of 66 per cent to 18 per cent, but among the less well-off DE voters, the No side leads by 42 per cent to 38 per cent. In the largest C1 social category, covering lower-middle-class voters, the Yes side has a lead of 55 to 30 per cent.

Farmers are now in favour of the treaty by 66 per cent to 20 per cent, which represents a substantial shift since the last Irish Times poll in June.

Previous Poll wrote:

Among the most well-off AB voters the Yes side is in the lead by 57 per cent to 27 per cent while among the less well-off DE voters the No side leads by 47 per cent to 29 per cent. What will be heartening for supporters of the EU is that among the biggest C1 social category, covering lower middle-class voters, the Yes side has a lead of 53 to 33 per cent.

Farmers are now in favour of the treaty by 46 per cent to 32 per cent which represents a substantial shift since the last Irish Times poll before the referendum in June.

J.S. Pill

nesf wrote: »

I decided to look at the poll in November to see how different it was to this one for comparison purposes. The question asked seems to be similar:




http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1117/1226700659487.html


So the two polls might actually be comparable in that the questions are essentially the same. Though I'd agree with lostexpectation that it's asking a question about a hypothetical situation that isn't at the moment real.

D'oh!!

Thanks for taking the 2 minutes to look back at the original poll - 2 minutes that were clearly too much for my lazy ass.

nesf

J.S. Pill wrote: »

D'oh!!

Thanks for taking the 2 minutes to look back at the original poll - 2 minutes that were clearly too much for my lazy ass.

No problem, I was curious if the pollsters were sloppy enough to have made the mistake people assumed they were making. It would have been a serious oversight.


What's really interesting actually is how the C1 group hasn't changed at all versus the large change in the AB group and the smaller change in the DE group. Also, the movement from No to Don't Know is interesting. But then, this is only a hypothetical question etc.

Mr. Frost

The Corinthian wrote: »

I'd like to think that this swing is as a result of people informing themselves properly, but I have a horrible feeling that the main reason is that we're economically in trouble and want curry favour with the EU in the hope that we'll get bailed out.

I'd go with that feeling. Irish people are moronic when it comes to politics (I mean in general). ''Things are bad, oh what could we have done differently recently....eh..vote yes''. :rolleyes:

kevteljeur

At the risk of appearing to be flame-baiting, I think it shows a remarkable lack of self-consciousness to reject Lisbon when things appeared to be going well (not that I believe they were) and then swing back to the EU again when the economy self-destructs. It's all about the money and nothing more, I guess.

If any of the sceptics are still sticking to their guns then I'd love to hear the economic arguments for staying at a distance from the EU now.

cat&mouse

Decaln G. is supposed to be interviewed on BBC Newsnight 2Moro (Thurs)
Geremy (forget his second name) is some cookie when interviewing...

limklad

kevteljeur wrote: »

At the risk of appearing to be flame-baiting, I think it shows a remarkable lack of self-consciousness to reject Lisbon when things appeared to be going well (not that I believe they were) and then swing back to the EU again when the economy self-destructs. It's all about the money and nothing more, I guess.

If any of the sceptics are still sticking to their guns then I'd love to hear the economic arguments for staying at a distance from the EU now.

The government turn the last Lisbon Treaty referendum into a scare tactic referendum of we are "in or out of Europe" as Cowan blasted on Prime Time last May/June. They did not discuss the in-depth details of the Lisbon Treaty. They pout out comments such as "Trust Us" and "Vote Yes" without any justification to back it up. They use previous EU Treaty gains and said that what Lisbon will do for us. If we already have those Gains Lisbon will not gain us anything more. This was Cowans and his bandits pulling the wool over our eyes.
EU will not Fall if Lisbon does not pass. It will find another way of co-operating. There is too much at stake for Each EU member not to let it happen. We (Ireland) are not leaving the EU if Lisbon is Rejected again. It is political suicide of the politician for Suggestion it unless your are member of Sinn Fein or UK Independence Party.

Lisbon Treaty Rejection last June has nothing to do with our economy going sour and losing Jobs. It was the sup-prime/credit crunch and basic greed (Banks and Business) and ignorance by the majority with reckless spending from Loans and speculation and believing (out of Ignorance) from the Politicians and Business people that there will be no more recession.

The EU Economy regulations depends on the EC (Law enforcer and is respondable with the running of the EU) and Council of the EU (Main decision making body). The way the EU Economy is run will not change under Lisbon Treaty.
It will just change the decision making (voting weights and extra Area of Governance -Council of the EU), provides extra lip service to EU Parliament (may legislate in addition to admend legislation- Can Block by Council of the EU which may add more power struggles in future which in turn hamper the EU) and National Parliaments (Can be ignored by the EU even if most EU parliament reject propose Regulation, yet they still have to pass EU law under treaty obligations - no different than today under Nice Treaty rules) and some minor rearrange the furniture of the EU Pillar structure. The "Council of the EU" are the main Gainers of the Lisbon Treaty, not Parliaments. That why the Government would not talk about the Lisbon Treaty in detail.

When people are frightened they will side on the loudest people (out of Ignorance) will blame who those loud people claim are the blame and then follow those who will promise the Sun, Moon and Stars, just like the People in Germany in the 1930's when their economy tanked. Lisbon Treay will not create more Jobs for us. We have to do that ourselves and create more home style Industies and buisness and compete in the EU and Global Markets.

O'Morris

limklad wrote:

EU will not Fall if Lisbon does not pass.

limklad wrote:

We (Ireland) are not leaving the EU if Lisbon is Rejected again. It is political suicide of the politician for Suggestion it

Don't worry, the pro-treaty people will be blue in the face reminding us of this during the next referendum campaign.

limklad wrote:

When people are frightened they will side on the loudest people (out of Ignorance) will blame who those loud people claim are the blame and then follow those who will promise the Sun, Moon and Stars, just like the People in Germany in the 1930's when their economy tanked.

People generally don't make good political decisions during a severe economic downturn. That's why I don't think this is the year for us to be voting on a treaty that will have serious long-term political consequences for this country. People are just going to be too distracted by the recession and are going to vote out of fear and ignorance.

We have more important things for us to be expending our energy on this year. The EU should put this treaty on hold for another two or three years and then come back to it once our economies have started to recover. They should also send a clear message that it's business as usual in the EU and that it's not in any European country's interests to upset the status quo. That would not only reassure the markets but it would also free up our time so we could focus on more important economic issues. Reform of the EU should be at the bottom of our list of priorities this year.

Scofflaw

O'Morris wrote: »

People generally don't make good political decisions during a severe economic downturn. That's why I don't think this is the year for us to be voting on a treaty that will have serious long-term political consequences for this country. People are just going to be too distracted by the recession and are going to vote out of fear and ignorance.

Are you concerned that people might vote Yes for reasons that have nothing to do with the Treaty?

O'Morris wrote: »

We have more important things for us to be expending our energy on this year. The EU should put this treaty on hold for another two or three years and then come back to it once our economies have started to recover. They should also send a clear message that it's business as usual in the EU and that it's not in any European country's interests to upset the status quo. That would not only reassure the markets but it would also free up our time so we could focus on more important economic issues. Reform of the EU should be at the bottom of our list of priorities this year.

So reform of the institutions that run the common market and the euro are a low priority in the current mess? Well, it's a position, I suppose.

amused,
Scofflaw

O'Morris

Scofflaw wrote:

Are you concerned that people might vote Yes for reasons that have nothing to do with the Treaty?

I am. Aren't you concerned about it as well?

Scofflaw wrote:

So reform of the institutions that run the common market and the euro are a low priority in the current mess?

At this point I think stability is more important than reform.

Scofflaw

O'Morris wrote: »

I am. Aren't you concerned about it as well?

Of course, but I can only do the same as for those who vote No for reasons unconnected with the Treaty - neither more nor less. I just seem to recall that there were very few worries expressed about voting No on the basis of everything from FF's incompetence to other countries' constitutional arrangements.

O'Morris wrote: »

At this point I think stability is more important than reform.

And if the reforms are needed for stability?

cordially,
Scofflaw