Ireland the most troubled economy in Europe

jank

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5733723.ece

FEARS are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector.

The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs on Friday, having almost tripled in a week. Debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe.

So what now? Our banks are ****ed and the government dont have a clue to whats going on or how to fix it, as the banks are running rings around them with loans and deals that shouldnt have gone through?

When will the EU or the IMF come in to help?

Sand

So what now? Our banks are ****ed and the government dont have a clue to whats going on or how to fix it, as the banks are running rings around them with loans and deals that shouldnt have gone through?

Always with the drama jank...

Húrin

Ann Pettifor agrees:

Ann Pettifor, 11/01/2009 wrote:

I was shocked by what is happening to our neighbours. One newspaper headline declared yesterday that in this country of just 5 million people, 5,000 are being laid off every week. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, “in October there were 260,300 claimants on a seasonally adjusted basis, up by a mammoth 57.1% on a year earlier, and by 6 .5% on the previous month (the largest ever monthly jump in claimant numbers.)”

Readers will have heard about Dell Computers laying off 1,900 workers last week; but you may not know that the venerable Waterford Glass company - part of Anthony Reilly’s Wedgewood empire - is threatened with closure too, if a buyer cannot be found. That’s an awful lot of pain, anguish and suffering - for men and women and their families. It does not bear thinking about. And it is severely damaging the banks that lent money to these men and women during the housing boom.

read the rest at:

http://debtonation.org/2009/01/the-crisis-in-ireland/

Sand

One possible solution would see Germany buy billions of euros of Irish government debt through a fund set up by the European Central Bank.

Remember lads, vote against Libson to save Ireland from the EU overriding our sovereignty with their bailing us out from economic meltdown...the imperialist technocratic bastards!!!

Run_to_da_hills

I have already opened up a book of condolence for the country.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055487351

nesf

This would of course only be true if one omits Iceland from Europe. Spain, Greece and Italy are also looking weak (though we've overtaken Greece in terms of spread on 10 year bonds iirc). In terms of most troubled, Spain is looking very rocky at the moment with unemployment climbing up the high teens already! Italy is going into this mess already with public debt at over 100% of GDP.

We're in trouble and so are many other EU states I'm afraid. Though from the drama one would swear we'd already defaulted on our loans and had 20%+ unemployment. Too many people too young to remember much of the 70s and 80s.

jank

Always with the drama jank...

LOL, well I'm not the only one who thinks that the economy is in very very bad shape for Ireland and that we are almost on the floor here. Just take a look at the threads here on this forum, everything from dole payments to national government is covered.

If you disagree please say otherwise Ill take it what we are both in agreement.

CCCP^

IMF are just dying to help out aren't they? Jesus, if you think Cowen and Co. and they're spending cuts are bad, imagine what it would be like with the IMF calling the shots?

jank

Though from the drama one would swear we'd already defaulted on our loans and had 20%+ unemployment. Too many people too young to remember much of the 70s and 80s.

I agree but what I think what the "drama" is about is that we are heading in that direction and there is nothing anyone, not even the government can do about it. It is like seeing the end of the film before watching the whole film and no matter how much you can wish it away, you know the end of the story and what the outcome will be.

We will be at 20% unemployment in 18-24 months and the government are clueless about the banking sector.

nesf

jank wrote: »

I agree but what I think what the "drama" is about is that we are heading in that direction and there is nothing anyone, not even the government can do about it. It is like seeing the end of the film before watching the whole film and no matter how much you can wish it away, you know the end of the story and what the outcome will be.

We will be at 20% unemployment in 18-24 months and the government are clueless about the banking sector.

Drama is assuming the IMF is coming in long before there's any evidence that it's absolutely necessary and bluntly, talking about what will be the case in 18-24 months is utterly pointless. There are just too many unknowns right now to make any kind of statement about the future with certainty. Christ, I wouldn't be confident predicting what unemployment would be by the end of the summer never mind this time next year.

jank

Well said. I suppose one can say it is going to get bad, very bad but how bad no one really knows..yet anyway.

I think IMF coming in is the worst case scenario. But if there is talk in the press about the possibility of it then one cant rule it out entirely. I dont wish this any Ireland at all, it would destroy the country.

FF have to get to grips with this issue and fire/jail bankers who do this type of stuff. ID say there will be a lot of "deals" to come out in the press yet.

truthflyer

Don't fret, the IMF will be along soon enough.

B****ing about a 7% levy.....lol

Public Servants, 50% pay cuts and 70K to go:D

Rented Mule

What does the country have to fall back on at this point ?

Tourism and agriculture ?

It amazes me the number of groups who plan industrial actions/strikes, when everything is about to blow up in everyone's face. It seems as though the 'bigger picture' is completely lost on everyone. Many of the mulit-nationals are hanging on by a thread at the moment and looking for any excuse to start heading east.

There is a huge ****storm on the horizon and people had better start planning to take cover as best they can.

mike65

IMF reckons we're okay (or not bad enough to need them)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE51B4TW20090212

ejmaztec

Rented Mule wrote: »

What does the country have to fall back on at this point ?

Tourism and agriculture ?

It amazes me the number of groups who plan industrial actions/strikes, when everything is about to blow up in everyone's face. It seems as though the 'bigger picture' is completely lost on everyone. Many of the mulit-nationals are hanging on by a thread at the moment and looking for any excuse to start heading east.

There is a huge ****storm on the horizon and people had better start planning to take cover as best they can.

Just agriculture to fall back on. Tourists can't afford to come here. They've all gone east as well.

besty

From The Sunday Times
February 15, 2009
Ireland ‘could default on debt’
Iain ***

FEARS are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector.

The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs on Friday, having almost tripled in a week. Debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe.

Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, called for this weekend’s meeting of G7 finance ministers to put Ireland’s troubles at the top of the agenda.

Johnson said: “Don’t, please, tell me more about the basic principles of financial reform unless and until you have addressed the Irish problem. And don’t tell me the Irish have to sort this out for themselves. Eventually, the world always comes to help; check your notes on Iceland.

“It’s much better and much cheaper to come in early and decisively. We need a plan of action for Ireland, and we need it now.”

Pledges made by Ireland to support its banking sector amount to 220% of the country’s annual economic output. The total loans held in Irish banks are more than 11 times the size of the economy.

Following the scandal at Anglo Irish Bank over undisclosed loans, the market fears there are more hidden problems that could ultimately fall to the state to resolve.

With Ireland set to borrow an additional €15 billion (£13.4 billion) this year, the national debt pile will hit €70 billion.

The cost of insuring Irish debt hit 350 basis points on Friday, meaning that for every £100 of debt it would cost £3.50 to insure against default. A year ago it would have cost 10p to insure every £100 of Irish debt.

One possible solution would see Germany buy billions of euros of Irish government debt through a fund set up by the European Central Bank.

NewDubliner

besty wrote: »

From The Sunday Times

You don't offer any opinion about the article yourself? Shouldn't we be asking ourselves "Why was the article written?"

Questions in my mind would be: Is the ST stirring things up to draw attention away from the UK? Is it part of the British oligarch's anti-European agenda?

nesf

Link to the article and give an opinion on it in future Betsy.

nesf

NewDubliner wrote: »

You don't offer any opinion about the article yourself? Shouldn't we be asking ourselves "Why was the article written?"

Questions in my mind would be: Is the ST stirring things up to draw attention away from the UK? Is it part of the British oligarch's anti-European agenda?

Because it's news and the IMF chairman making any reference to Ireland will spawn articles interpreting it here. I don't see any conspiracy in this. It's not like the economy isn't in trouble right now.

NewDubliner

nesf wrote: »

Because it's news and the IMF chairman making any reference to Ireland will spawn articles interpreting it here. I don't see any conspiracy in this. It's not like the economy isn't in trouble right now.

There's no mention in the article of the IMF Chairman?

It's their former chief economist who's now on the financial chat-show circuit.

nesf

NewDubliner wrote: »

There's no mention in the article of the IMF Chairman?

It's their former chief economist who's now on the financial chat-show circuit.

True. Meh, I'd still not read too much into it, financial news jumped from the pink to the white pages a year back and is still going strong. Though I dislike them quoting market numbers which make no sense to ordinary people without giving reference points for people, i.e. where Germany and Iceland are at the moment or similar.

NewDubliner

nesf wrote: »

financial news jumped from the pink to the white pages a year back

Bad news sells, especially if it's about people or countries you don't like.

Sentiment and confidence are a big part of the problem. These need to be mastered. As we saw with the PSEU's gaff last month, careless words can knock a cent of the euro and maybe wipe out a few small towns to boot.

If memory serves me correctly, during their big crisis, some of the SE Asian countries passed laws punishing people who spread false rumours. We might need to emulate this example, at least in the interests of steadying the boat so we can set some kind of a course.

truthflyer

NewDubliner wrote: »

Bad news sells, especially if it's about people or countries you don't like.

Sentiment and confidence are a big part of the problem. These need to be mastered. As we saw with the PSEU's gaff last month, careless words can knock a cent of the euro and maybe wipe out a few small towns to boot.

If memory serves me correctly, during their big crisis, some of the SE Asian countries passed laws punishing people who spread false rumours. We might need to emulate this example, at least in the interests of steadying the boat so we can set some kind of a course.

Are you for real?

NewDubliner

truthflyer wrote: »

Are you for real?

What's your point? Do you disagree with something I said?

Careless talk costs jobs.

kowloon

The current economic debate summed up through art.

Fratton Fred

NewDubliner wrote: »

What's your point? Do you disagree with something I said?

Careless talk costs jobs.

Maybe the lizardmen have taken over the Sunday Times?

pdb123

I'd take a lot of this with a pinch of salt, i read the report & it talks about having possibly having to remove our AAA rating in the next 12 - 18 months..
This news is also being triggered by the amount of media coverage & the speed at which new is coming out of irregularites in Anglo..
This is a major mistake and wont inspire confidence, you never heard anything coming out of Northern Rock in the UK, it was kept hush hush..
The more news we write about ourselves, the more that will published about us.

Its bad out there & while our banks have got quite a few potential defaulters on their books, we are in reality no worse then the UK, spain, greece, italy..

The ECB are't acting now because they don't have to.. But If or when something major happens in one of the eurozone countires, then europe will move..
With all that said, host the lisbon vote tomorrow, lets get it ratified and if its rejected again, hold it the day after

thebman

pdb123 wrote: »

I'd take a lot of this with a pinch of salt, i read the report & it talks about having possibly having to remove our AAA rating in the next 12 - 18 months..
This news is also being triggered by the amount of media coverage & the speed at which new is coming out of irregularites in Anglo..
This is a major mistake and wont inspire confidence, you never heard anything coming out of Northern Rock in the UK, it was kept hush hush..
The more news we write about ourselves, the more that will published about us.

Its bad out there & while our banks have got quite a few potential defaulters on their books, we are in reality no worse then the UK, spain, greece, italy..

The ECB are't acting now because they don't have to.. But If or when something major happens in one of the eurozone countires, then europe will move..
With all that said, host the lisbon vote tomorrow, lets get it ratified and if its rejected again, hold it the day after

Could the reason you didn't hear anything about Northern Rock be because they weren't up to the same sh** because the British regulator at least does his job in a half arse way?

pdb123

No, northern rock was the at the top of the pile when it comes to shady business practices.

It was very exposed to the US credit defaults, but it was also lending very recklessly..

I think, while the public have a right to know whats going on, there is a certain danger in airing all your dirty linnen in public..

gurramok

You have to air your dirty linen in public if you want confidence in the Irish banking system. Hiding it will do irreparable damage long-term. At least now its short term.

Fear is spreading

Irish government faces growing fears of debt default
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/16/ireland-debt-recession

Most read story on the Guardian.

pdb123

I dont think i framed my ideas very well, what i meant was..

Leaking the problems of our banking sector out in a piecemeal fashion is what im against..
Of course it has to come out, but maybe in one big report..
As it stands now, all we are seeing is constant news stories portraying our banking system in a bad light..
We already now there was issues around the funding of shares in various FS institutions, do we need to hear it again and again with every dodgy deal?

Again, I will use the example of northern rock, idle talk caused a run on the bank, the bank nearly took the entire UK FS system down.. As soon as it was nationalised the idle talk stopped..

Fratton Fred

Northern rock happened before the full extent of the banking crisis was known though. There is a big difference between the collapse of a bank and the collapse of a country's banking system and economy. This is news so it is being reported, I don't see how there are any alterior motives behind it. A lot of people in the UK have money invested in Ireland so they need to be kept informed.

lordhawhaw

3 banks with 150 billion out on loans. 1 bank with 52 billion in property60% write down on commercial property.who is gonna pay for the combined 75 Billion liability? Oh i'm not allowed to talk down the country, because (nudge, wink) "We are a vibrant strong economy". I'm reading the grapes of wrath at the moment.maybe if we sell chickens for 1 million euro each we only have to sell 7000

NewDubliner

lordhawhaw wrote: »

Oh i'm not allowed to talk down the country, because (nudge, wink) "We are a vibrant strong economy".

Nobody should hide the truth, but there are falsehoods being introduced. Let's stick to the facts.

jmayo

NewDubliner wrote: »

Nobody should hide the truth, but there are falsehoods being introduced. Let's stick to the facts.

Would these be the facts as released to us by Minister of Finance, Dept of Finance, IFSRA, Central Bank, our leading bankers or George Lee, Alan Aherne and Morgan Kelly ?

Guess which ones might actually be telling us something approaching the truth ?

The last thing we should be doing is trying to cover up stuff.
Nobody believes Irish banking reports anymore and that's why we are standing joke now.
We are all just waiting for the next scandal to break.

NewDubliner

jmayo wrote: »

Would these be the facts as released to us by Minister of Finance, Dept of Finance, IFSRA, Central Bank, our leading bankers or George Lee, Alan Aherne and Morgan Kelly ?.

I'm referring to scare stories involving the imminent arrival of the IMF (not) and being in the crosshairs of the G7 (not).

Things are bad enough without making stuff up.

besty

nesf wrote: »

Link to the article and give an opinion on it in future Betsy.

Will do. Virgin politics post. Also, in future, it's besty :pac:

nesf

besty wrote: »

Will do. Virgin politics post. Also, in future, it's besty :pac:

I got called nerf today :pac:

HoldStady

I remember reading something about this whereby the British financial press would be leaked stories about Ireland's capability to default therefore increasing the liklihood that the insurance on Irish bonds would increase (also putting pressure on the ratings agencies to downgrade Ireland). This would make the money Ireland is borrowing so expensive it would make it untenable. This would make money for the short sellers who are betting against Ireland being able to service its debt.
I think it was David McWilliams who said this but I cannot find the reference on the Independent website to read it again.
Could this be true or is it a handy conspiracy theory, however when I read the ST article when I was in London and it was on the front page it made me think. Also The Economist had a small article in the 07/02/2009 edition about Ireland (Reykjavik on the Liffey) but it did not mention the possibility of Ireland being unable to service its debt.

NewDubliner

HoldStady wrote: »

I remember reading something about this whereby the British financial press would be leaked stories about Ireland's capability to default .

They're not leaks. It's speculation & rumour mongering.

At the end of the day, how much we get charged for borrowing is at least, in part, a matter of sentiment for the lenders.

The UK media is talking us down so that the UK will get better rates than us.

It's a dirty war out there and every weapon is being used.

Fratton Fred

HoldStady wrote: »

I remember reading something about this whereby the British financial press would be leaked stories about Ireland's capability to default therefore increasing the liklihood that the insurance on Irish bonds would increase (also putting pressure on the ratings agencies to downgrade Ireland). This would make the money Ireland is borrowing so expensive it would make it untenable. This would make money for the short sellers who are betting against Ireland being able to service its debt.
I think it was David McWilliams who said this but I cannot find the reference on the Independent website to read it again.

I must admit, I've only just got my head around short selling on shares. how does it work with a country's economy? government bonds?

NewDubliner wrote: »

They're not leaks. It's speculation & rumour mongering.
At the end of the day, how much we get charged for borrowing is at least, in part, a matter of sentiment for the lenders.
The UK media is talking us down so that the UK will get better rates than us.
It's a dirty war out there and every weapon is being used.

Why?

Akrasia

Rented Mule wrote: »

What does the country have to fall back on at this point ?

Tourism and agriculture ?

It amazes me the number of groups who plan industrial actions/strikes, when everything is about to blow up in everyone's face. It seems as though the 'bigger picture' is completely lost on everyone. Many of the mulit-nationals are hanging on by a thread at the moment and looking for any excuse to start heading east.

It amazes me even further that people who complain about unions missing the 'bigger picture' dont seem to notice that the government is throwing billions and billions and billions of your children's money down the toilet to protect their buddies in the banking sector, while they're 'scrimping' a few millions at a time removing valuable services from people with learning disabilities

Fratton Fred

Akrasia wrote: »

It amazes me even further that people who complain about unions missing the 'bigger picture' dont seem to notice that the government is throwing billions and billions and billions of your children's money down the toilet to protect their buddies in the banking sector, while they're 'scrimping' a few millions at a time removing valuable services from people with learning disabilities

If a bank goes bust, the liquidators may have the right to call in your mortgage. Imagine if 200,000 families in Ireland (Many with negative equatity) had to suddenly pay off their mortgages or have their houses repossessed. where do you think we would be then?

jmayo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If a bank goes bust, the liquidators may have the right to call in your mortgage. Imagine if 200,000 families in Ireland (Many with negative equatity) had to suddenly pay off their mortgages or have their houses repossessed. where do you think we would be then?

Ah but how many normal residential mortgage holders did Anglo have ?
They were not of systemic importance according to most analysts, but yet they were the ones that the government have bent over backwards to save.

We do know they may have had money on deposit belonging to a massive player in residential mortgage business and was that the real reason they were saved ?

How come at the time of the guarantee, AFAIK some of the players did not want Anglo covered and more importantly why were they overruled ?

This is the big question and needs to be answered because the Irish people have a right to know why they are saddled with approx 60 billion in property related debt, a good portion of it probably bad debt.

Of course the bankers on here will say we should move on, it had to be done to save the rest but if that was so, how come the big two banks AFAIK did not want Anglo in the guarantee.

To paraphrase an infamous US politican, there are some known unknowns and some unknown unknowns :rolleyes:
Until everything is out there is a huge unknown label hanging over Irish financial institutions of all decriptions.

Fratton Fred

jmayo wrote: »

Ah but how many normal residential mortgage holders did Anglo have ?
They were not of systemic importance according to most analysts, but yet they were the ones that the government have bent over backwards to save.

We do know they may have had money on deposit belonging to a massive player in residential mortgage business and was that the real reason they were saved ?

How come at the time of the guarantee, AFAIK some of the players did not want Anglo covered and more importantly why were they overruled ?

This is the big question and needs to be answered because the Irish people have a right to know why they are saddled with approx 60 billion in property related debt, a good portion of it probably bad debt.

Of course the bankers on here will say we should move on, it had to be done to save the rest but if that was so, how come the big two banks AFAIK did not want Anglo in the guarantee.

i thought there were a lot of residential mortgages and mortgages on second properties secured on main homes. how many are needed to justify a bail out and how many jobs are worth losing?

jmayo wrote: »

To paraphrase an infamous US politican, there are some known unknowns and some unknown unknowns :rolleyes:
Until everything is out there is a huge unknown label hanging over Irish financial institutions of all decriptions.

I would suggest that label hangs over most banks, not just Irish ones.

jmayo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

i thought there were a lot of residential mortgages and mortgages on second properties secured on main homes. how many are needed to justify a bail out and how many jobs are worth losing?

But mortgages on second properties would mean investor n'est pas ?
I know some bankers or banking experts can clairfy this but Anglo were small player in residential mortgage AFAIK and if they went these would probably be bought by someone else.
It doesn't mean overnight somebody would be looking for their money or the house.
So what if the banks employees jobs went, should we commit to possibly 20 billion plus in taxpayers money to save them ?
If you take that line, shouldn't Waterford get bailout, shouldn't Dell, shouldn't all the other private enterprises get a bailout etc etc.

The only reason they got bailout was supposedly because they were of systemic importance to the banking system, which is a point that has been debated by financial analysts and other bankers.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I would suggest that label hangs over most banks, not just Irish ones.

True internationally most banks have question marks hanging over them, but Irish banks seem to have a stench all of their own.

One bank in particular has been shown to be playing silly budgers, hiding directors loans temporarily diverting them to another institution, getting sizable deposits from another institution to bring up it's deposit base at year end and offering loans to individuals to purchase the banks own shares apparently only secured on the shares themsleves.
Anglo has roped in two other institutions, that we know of, into their schenangains.

BTW these are facts, not myths or rumours and becuase we discuss them doesn't mean we are ranting or rumour milling, as somepeople state if we dare discuss these issues.

The other banks as can be seen from the revelations about their bad debts post recapitalisation are concealing the true state of their loan books or if we are charitable, they are pretty oiptimistic about their loan books.

Fratton Fred

jmayo wrote: »

But mortgages on second properties would mean investor n'est pas ?
I know some bankers or banking experts can clairfy this but Anglo were small player in residential mortgage AFAIK and if they went these would probably be bought by someone else.
It doesn't mean overnight somebody would be looking for their money or the house.
So what if the banks employees jobs went, should we commit to possibly 20 billion plus in taxpayers money to save them ?
If you take that line, shouldn't Waterford get bailout, shouldn't Dell, shouldn't all the other private enterprises get a bailout etc etc.

The only reason they got bailout was supposedly because they were of systemic importance to the banking system, which is a point that has been debated by financial analysts and other bankers.

I was thinking more along the lines of calling in mortgages on second properties, many of which are in excess of 90% mortgages, would result in the investor having to sell their own house to make up the shortfall. A lot of these second mortgages for investment properties were based on the now non existant equatity in the main residence.

If loans for developers are called in, then what happens to those companies. this would no doubt push many er the edge resulting in more job losses, over and above the losses at the bank.

I haven't done the maths on it tbh, but a bank collapsing can have enormous knock on effects.

jmayo wrote: »

True internationally most banks have question marks hanging over them, but Irish banks seem to have a stench all of their own.

One bank in particular has been shown to be playing silly budgers, hiding directors loans temporarily diverting them to another institution, getting sizable deposits from another institution to bring up it's deposit base at year end and offering loans to individuals to purchase the banks own shares apparently only secured on the shares themsleves.
Anglo has roped in two other institutions, that we know of, into their schenangains.

BTW these are facts, not myths or rumours and becuase we discuss them doesn't mean we are ranting or rumour milling, as somepeople state if we dare discuss these issues.

The other banks as can be seen from the revelations about their bad debts post recapitalisation are concealing the true state of their loan books or if we are charitable, they are pretty oiptimistic about their loan books.

I agree and I believe there are directors who should have criminal cases brought against them tbh.

jmayo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I was thinking more along the lines of calling in mortgages on second properties, many of which are in excess of 90% mortgages, would result in the investor having to sell their own house to make up the shortfall. A lot of these second mortgages for investment properties were based on the now non existant equatity in the main residence.

The short answer is tough sh** if you remortgaged your home to buy more over priced property as investment or even holiday home.

See Accomodation and Property forum to see how most sane people view those who have gotten burnt by paying high prices for property, are now in negative equity and maybe looking for bailout.
This is all the more the case when it is an investment property that has caused this.

If you remortgage your property, just like if you take out a bank loan of any type, then you should be expected to pay it back and not look for a getout clause.
We can not have a system, and a society, where people get to reap the rewards when times are good, but are bailed out if things turn bad.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If loans for developers are called in, then what happens to those companies. this would no doubt push many er the edge resulting in more job losses, over and above the losses at the bank.

I haven't done the maths on it tbh, but a bank collapsing can have enormous knock on effects.

Again why should the taxpayer stump up to bailout developers who made a fortune fleecing taxpayers who were trading up or FTBs.
Yes the people that work for developers lose jobs, just like people in other insolvent companies lose jobs.
Should they be propped up by the taxpayers as well, surely there are more compelling reasons to save jobs in productive companies rather than development companies ?

The building industry has already had huge jobs losses, but people were working in an industry producing overpriced products that nobody wants.
There was an oversupply of overpriced products. Simple as that.

The big problem is that developers are not being liquidated and their assets sold off.
Thus nobody really knows the real price of property, banks do know the real exposure they have to bad debts, and nobody is entering the housing market to buy because they know they are buying into a downward market.

Until banks force developers to sell off both development land and the huge stockpile of housing, nobody knows the real value of Irish property.
We are living in denial at the moment.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I agree and I believe there are directors who should have criminal cases brought against them tbh.

Some our banking posting friends would disagree :rolleyes:

Dannyboy83

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If a bank goes bust, the liquidators may have the right to call in your mortgage. Imagine if 200,000 families in Ireland (Many with negative equatity) had to suddenly pay off their mortgages or have their houses repossessed. where do you think we would be then?

Would the Government be able to transfer those residential mortgages, or arrange with a stable back to do so?

And let commercial could go in the bin.

I understand that the liquidators could demand the entire lump sum.
But realistically speaking, they put 7 Billion into the pot already.
That would have probably covered all of Anglo's residential mortgages and left anything else out for the vultures.

Those mortgages could be repaid to a different institution.

Fratton Fred

jmayo wrote: »

The short answer is tough sh** if you remortgaged your home to buy more over priced property as investment or even holiday home.

See Accomodation and Property forum to see how most sane people view those who have gotten burnt by paying high prices for property, are now in negative equity and maybe looking for bailout.
This is all the more the case when it is an investment property that has caused this.

If you remortgage your property, just like if you take out a bank loan of any type, then you should be expected to pay it back and not look for a getout clause.
We can not have a system, and a society, where people get to reap the rewards when times are good, but are bailed out if things turn bad.

Again why should the taxpayer stump up to bailout developers who made a fortune fleecing taxpayers who were trading up or FTBs.
Yes the people that work for developers lose jobs, just like people in other insolvent companies lose jobs.
Should they be propped up by the taxpayers as well, surely there are more compelling reasons to save jobs in productive companies rather than development companies ?

The building industry has already had huge jobs losses, but people were working in an industry producing overpriced products that nobody wants.
There was an oversupply of overpriced products. Simple as that.

The big problem is that developers are not being liquidated and their assets sold off.
Thus nobody really knows the real price of property, banks do know the real exposure they have to bad debts, and nobody is entering the housing market to buy because they know they are buying into a downward market.

Until banks force developers to sell off both development land and the huge stockpile of housing, nobody knows the real value of Irish property.
We are living in denial at the moment.

I wouldn't disagree with you tbh, but I can't think what else the government can do. I just think a bank like Anglo going bust could have huge far reaching effects.

There are a lot more people to blame than just the banks though...did anything ever happen to that estate agent and financial advisor who were swapping information? The whole property system was full of greed and all the time the government were getting 12% stamp duty they didn't care.

The biggest issue I have, is that the man responsible for a lot of this conveniently stepped down last year and let some other poor mug take his place. Bertie knew what was coming and ran as fast as he could.

Fratton Fred

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Would the Government be able to transfer those residential mortgages, or arrange with a stable back to do so?

And let commercial could go in the bin.

I understand that the liquidators could demand the entire lump sum.
But realistically speaking, they put 7 Billion into the pot already.
That would have probably covered all of Anglo's residential mortgages and left anything else out for the vultures.

Those mortgages could be repaid to a different institution.

Maybe, in fact i think they have suggested something not too dissimilar with the other banks but using Anglo as the way to do it.