Where to Invest in property these days?

NickCarraway

Might sound crazy, but with house prices falling, and if you are in the fortunate position of having some money to invest, where in Ireland would you recommend buying a house? Obviously this would be for long term gains, not short-term.

I remember as a student in Galway, one landlady i had (unscrupulous old hag, penny pinched in every way possible except for a mouth full of gold teeth) owned between 5 and 8 houses in Galway. She and her husband bought them back in the 70's and 80's, barley fixed em up and were making a mint off them renting them to students. Even if they sold em today, they'd make out like bandits!

My bet is on Athenry, Co. Galway.
25 km from Galway, soon to be an important transport hub. Galway-Dublin and Limerick-Galway motorways will meet just outside town as will the Galway-Dublin trainline and the Western Rail Corridor. Heard rumours that a commuter rail service into Galway might be on the cards.

AARRRGH

Our economy is so screwed and will be screwed for many years. I would not invest in Irish property. In fact, I would not invest in property at all.

Consider buying shares. For nearly every company, including decent companies, they are very low at the moment.

uncanny

Irish property = toxic overpriced crap.

Long way to go yet. Around the end of 2010 it might be time to start sniffing around amoungst the wreckage.

jdivision

NickCarraway wrote: »

the Western Rail Corridor.

That won't be built. Ever.

uncanny

Heard rumours that a commuter rail service into Galway might be on the cards.

I heard rumours that the Winter Olympics are going to be held in Athenry in 2016. And Ryanair are going to start flying there soon.

Better get in quick folks.

Fighting Irish

lol this has to be a joke

RATM

A canny investor will always make money, even in a declining market.

OP if you are in property for the long term then I'd be looking at London. Because of the currency shift you are not only getting 12-15% off what it would have cost you 12 months ago but also prices are dropping there too.

A suburb like Mayfair or Knightsbridge, where there are plenty of Arabs will always hold its value in the long term.

If you can't afford there then look into the East End, specifically surburbs that are going to get a massive facelift in terms of infrastructure for the 2012 Olympics. Buy as near to a tube station as possible( or proposed one in the case of the new line ) and you can't go too far wrong.

I'd stay out of the Irish market for now but London, as one of the world's top 5 major cities, will always bounce back from a property correction.

uncanny

Yes, like Tokyo did :rolleyes:

mikemac

I'd say the Olympic angle has already been built into any prices you see in East London.

Much like every new property development remotely close to Dublins Luas lines had a massive pictures of the trams on the marketing brochures.
Even if the Luas was 30 minutes walk away!

EnoughSaid

uncanny wrote: »

I heard rumours that the Winter Olympics are going to be held in Athenry in 2016. And Ryanair are going to start flying there soon.

Better get in quick folks.

Are there any hills in the fields of Anthery (for the downhill)? Are the skis going to have in built wheels in case there is no snow?

Raskolnikov

With the collapse of Sterling, property in Northern Ireland has become 25% cheaper.

NickCarraway

jdivision wrote: »

That won't be built. Ever.

The Ennis to Athenry bit is currently being built.

uncanny wrote: »

I heard rumours that the Winter Olympics are going to be held in Athenry in 2016. And Ryanair are going to start flying there soon.

Better get in quick folks.

I sense sarcasm. Its not like I'm making stuff up to promote Athenry, like I'm the mayor of Athenry and, maybe, like, have a lot of my own money tied up in property around here and want to see their value rise or, say, the banks will come and repossess my house and kids, or something crazy like that. I mean, that just sounds mental. Come to Athenry and see the potential for yourself!!!!!!! Please.

uncanny

Yawn, just as dotcom stocks are so 1999, property is so 2006. The next 10 years of property returns will be as follows

A period of severe negative growth (deflation) followed by,
A period of zero growth (stagnation) followed by,
A period of anaemic growth (CPI inflation or less).

The only question is how long each of those periods will be over the 10 year period. We are currently in the severe deflation period and there is no telling where it will eventually bottom out, or how long that process will take. In my view there is a reasonable chance that property in Ireland will be cheaper in 2019 than it is in 2009, and as such it is a truly horrible investment prospect.

Next asset bubble please.

(edit/ as regards the humour, I was borrowing from a famous post by Auto320)

Money Shot

One bedroom apartements in Ongar are going cheap at the moment

20goto10

uncanny wrote: »

Yawn, just as dotcom stocks are so 1999, property is so 2006.

What, there's no money to be made in dot com business? There'll never be any money to be made in the property business? Nonsense. Even if the property crash lasts another 10-15 years there will still be money to be had. Already the drops are uneven. There's certain properties that will sell better, simply for the fact that they tick all the boxes. It all depends. The chances of finding a gem that will make you money long term have never been better. the only thing is you've a lot of sh!te to sift through to find it.

jmayo

20goto10 wrote: »

What, there's no money to be made in dot com business? There'll never be any money to be made in the property business? Nonsense. Even if the property crash lasts another 10-15 years there will still be money to be had. Already the drops are uneven. There's certain properties that will sell better, simply for the fact that they tick all the boxes. It all depends. The chances of finding a gem that will make you money long term have never been better. the only thing is you've a lot of sh!te to sift through to find it.

Why do I think you are an Estate Agent ?
Maybe it is the Estate Agent speak with terms like "tick all the boxes" and "finding a gem".

Why would you buy property today that could, and most likely will, be worth 20% less this time next year ?
Yeah good investment strategy.

johndaman66

EnoughSaid wrote: »

Are there any hills in the fields of Anthery

I wouldn't think so...as the song goes low lie the fields of Athenry...:)

bobbiw

with the guy who said buy london, london and new york are widely immune to long term price fixes as they are such hubs of industry.

Dublin is gone for a long time and so is the rest of Ireland. If you buy today you can guarantee that you will loose money over the next 4-5 year.

There is no way on earth that Ireland will boom again like it did in the past. there is no way there will be building on that scale again its completly gone.

In the 80s you could buy a decent house for 40k but thats because taxation was 60%+ and there were no jobs.

When there are no jobs the goverment has to find a way to pay social services and that has to come from people who are working.

Same cycle as a bubble but in reverse.

20goto10

jmayo wrote: »

Why do I think you are an Estate Agent ?
Maybe it is the Estate Agent speak with terms like "tick all the boxes" and "finding a gem".

Why would you buy property today that could, and most likely will, be worth 20% less this time next year ?
Yeah good investment strategy.

Ah here we go again with the estate agent sh!te. No I'm not an estate agent.

Why would you invest in something that will be worth less next year? Well I would do exactly that if I had a good idea that it was going to be worth a lot in 5-10 years time. I could always wait and get it cheaper next year, but then again I might not if its sold or taken off the market. Another reason would be if it has a high rental yield.

The days of 6 month and 1 year short term property investments are long dead and hopefully will never return. Long term is a different story.

Unless you're suggesting there will never be a recovery in which case you might as well be predicting the end of civilisation. :rolleyes:

AARRRGH

20goto10 wrote: »

Unless you're suggesting there will never be a recovery in which case you might as well be predicting the end of civilisation. :rolleyes:

The problem is you don't understand what has happened in Ireland over the past 10 years. If you did you wouldn't be using language like "recovery".

Ireland had a property bubble where housing prices were insanely overpriced. They are still insanely overpriced.

There cannot be a "recovery" unless we have another property bubble. And even then it would be a temporary recovery until that bubble burst.

Considering how screwed our economy is, there is no chance of there being another bubble for at least 10 years, but most intelligent people realise we will probably never have anything like the Celtic Tiger ever again, and as a result, there will never be a "recovery" to bubble prices.

In other words, there won't and can't be a recovery.

Denial is just as dangerous as the inability to understand.

20goto10

AARRRGH wrote: »

The problem is you don't understand what has happened in Ireland over the past 10 years. If you did you wouldn't be using language like "recovery".

Ireland had a property bubble where housing prices were insanely overpriced. They are still insanely overpriced.

There cannot be a "recovery" unless we have another property bubble. And even then it would be a temporary recovery until that bubble burst.

Considering how screwed our economy is, there is no chance of there being another bubble for at least 10 years, but most intelligent people realise we will probably never have anything like the Celtic Tiger ever again, and as a result, there will never be a "recovery" to bubble prices.

In other words, there won't and can't be a recovery.

Denial is just as dangerous as the inability to understand.

You're telling me I don't understand whats going on and in the same post you're talking as if recovery is a return to the boom times :rolleyes:

AARRRGH

20goto10 wrote: »

You're telling me I don't understand whats going on and in the same post you're talking as if recovery is a return to the boom times :rolleyes:

Yes.

Please tell me how we can have a price "recovery" without having another property bubble?

GeeNorm

AARRRGH wrote: »

In other words, there won't and can't be a recovery.

They say to buy at the point of maximum pessimism... could this be it?:)

20goto10

AARRRGH wrote: »

Yes.

Please tell me how we can have a price "recovery" without having another property bubble?

I'm not talking about prices recovering to 2006 levels. I'm talking about a system recovery which starts with FTBs returning to the market.

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

I'm not talking about prices recovering to 2006 levels. I'm talking about a system recovery which starts with FTBs returning to the market.

but there is no indications or evidence that the "system recovery" is around the corner, all the evidence points to a continuation of plummeting property prices so what is the benefit of buying now?

rental market in free fall
1200-1500 job losses per day.
emigration is rampant
property massively over priced
complete lack of confidence in the banks

can you give us a few benefits of buying today?

20goto10

ntlbell wrote: »

but there is no indications or evidence that the "system recovery" is around the corner, all the evidence points to a continuation of plummeting property prices so what is the benefit of buying now?

rental market in free fall
1200-1500 job losses per day.
emigration is rampant
property massively over priced
complete lack of confidence in the banks

can you give us a few benefits of buying today?

I'm talking long term. Decline in rental market would definitely be a concern for the interim though. You'd need to really stress test that and again I'm talking about good property...something that is hard to come by but I don't think impossible.

AARRRGH

I think there might be long term value, but only if you hold off buying for perhaps four or five years.

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

I'm talking long term. Decline in rental market would definitely be a concern for the interim though. You'd need to really stress test that and again I'm talking about good property...something that is hard to come by but I don't think impossible.

So what's the difference in not buying now saving and earning a good % yield on your cash (making money now) instead of losing 10-15% + interest charges per year and buying in a few years time.

you enter a rising property market after making money on your cash for the last few years, have much lower mortgage repayments have a much bigger down payment would this not equal a much bigger profit in the long run?

long term or not why not make money now instead of losing with a view to buying something later on down the road to make profit long term

whatever way you look at it losing money now doesn't make any sense and doesn't sound like a very good strategy

20goto10

ntlbell wrote: »

So what's the difference in not buying now saving and earning a good % yield on your cash (making money now) instead of losing 10-15% + interest charges per year and buying in a few years time.

you enter a rising property market after making money on your cash for the last few years, have much lower mortgage repayments have a much bigger down payment would this not equal a much bigger profit in the long run?

long term or not why not make money now instead of losing with a view to buying something later on down the road to make profit long term

whatever way you look at it losing money now doesn't make any sense and doesn't sound like a very good strategy

How exactly are you losing money? This is boom talk turned on its head! Nothing happens until you sell it. If it makes you feel any better don't keep revisiting the market value until you are ready to sell in 10-15 years time. the difference between now and waiting is the difference between getting a sweet property and not. But having said that, there'll be plenty more sweet properties to come. I suppose I never thought about it in that respect.

bobbiw

I personaly dont think property will rise in value in Ireland again.

i think the country will go bankrupt and will need to be fully absorbed into some european situation.

ireland is in a mess, and most people there are too uneducated to take care of that mess.

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

How exactly are you losing money? This is boom talk turned on its head! Nothing happens until you sell it. If it makes you feel any better don't keep revisiting the market value until you are ready to sell in 10-15 years time. the difference between now and waiting is the difference between getting a sweet property and not. But having said that, there'll be plenty more sweet properties to come. I suppose I never thought about it in that respect.

in many spots.

First of all I'm paying interest on an overpriced asset.
secondly the rent's keep falling so I'd have to make up the difference.
thirdly there is a HUGE amount of rental properties and the number is growing at a drastic rate so I might have a much lower occupancy rate again I would have to make up the difference.

so my question is how do you benefit to buy now when down the road you can get the same property at a heavily discounted price and you actually make money with your cash today instead of putting it into a depreciating asset?

can you explain this?

bobbiw

Every reasonable person on earth accepts the fact that you no longer will make money on Irish property. It is going to fall for the next decade.

Prices will most likely settle after a huge drop, all the new houses built in the last 10 years will be hit hardest.

The houses that are more period style maybe less so. I dont think you will be getting a Ballsbridge georgian home for 100k but you will see them drop from 4-5m to 1-2m,

Ireland was third world in the 80s with homes going for 50k in leafy south side suburbs. Its going to go back to that.

But of course the average FTB will not be getting one becasue for the crash to go like that you will be making 10k a year in McDonalds and there will not be any work.

ntlbell

bobbiw wrote: »

Every reasonable person on earth accepts the fact that you no longer will make money on Irish property. It is going to fall for the next decade.

Prices will most likely settle after a huge drop, all the new houses built in the last 10 years will be hit hardest.

The houses that are more period style maybe less so. I dont think you will be getting a Ballsbridge georgian home for 100k but you will see them drop from 4-5m to 1-2m,

Ireland was third world in the 80s with homes going for 50k in leafy south side suburbs. Its going to go back to that.

But of course the average FTB will not be getting one becasue for the crash to go like that you will be making 10k a year in McDonalds and there will not be any work.

not doubting your insight can you explain what your basing it on?

bill_ashmount

Ireland will surely recover what with all the experts who have crawled out of the woodwork since the property market collapsed. It's amazing that everyone who speaks on the subject now saw it coming and can't believe how stupid other people were.

I'd predict that 90% of people offering an opinion now claim to have seen it coming. With this kind of knowledgable public Ireland should be safe in the future, it's either that or the majority of people are full of sh*t and get some weird feeling of superiority by claiming to have seen it coming.


Not directed at anyone in particular

AARRRGH

bill_ashmount wrote: »

Ireland will surely recover what with all the experts who have crawled out of the woodwork since the property market collapsed. It's amazing that everyone who speaks on the subject now saw it coming and can't believe how stupid other people were.

The majority of the bears on this forum have been talking about our crazy house prices, etc. for years.

For example, I have been posting on thepropertypin for about two years, and have thought our property market is insane for even longer.

If you're the type of person who doesn't have his head in the sand and who doesn't believe sales people, this stuff was obvious.

bobbiw

Do you think that there is a american company in Ireland that is not looking to move to eastern europe.

Many will not say this but seriously do you think that they are not looking at econominc data to see if leaving would be more costly than staying.

Irish property was at a stupid level. It was fueled by greed, not by need.

i think Ireland has had its day and I really dont think there will be a real recovery.

ntlbell

bobbiw wrote: »

Do you think that there is a american company in Ireland that is not looking to move to eastern europe.

Many will not say this but seriously do you think that they are not looking at econominc data to see if leaving would be more costly than staying.

Irish property was at a stupid level. It was fueled by greed, not by need.

i think Ireland has had its day and I really dont think there will be a real recovery.

i'll ask again

what are you basing this on?

bobbiw

What do you want me to base it on.

Ireland is one of the most expensive countries in the world now.
Back in the 90s it wasnt and it gave big tax breaks to foreign investment.

It also got a ton of money out of europe.

Now that has changed, Ireland is no longer competitive.

The building industry is all but gone, all the ancillary industries will start to hurt in 12-18 months.

Ireland never had much going for it, there was no reason prices increased the way they did.

So here is the question, what is keeping American investment in Ireland.

Its common sense to realize that it is not for love!, its for money.

If it is cheaper to operate and maintain a Irish base than move then companies will do that.

If a eastern european country offered enough (like with dell) they would all be gone.

ntlbell

everything

all the posts seem to contradict each other.

people on 35k shouldn't be able to afford a home of their own

but yet your stating they're hugely over valued

it just seems like you have had an overload of recent press cuttings and are talking utter nonsense

bobbiw

to sum it up is that prices are overpriced. They will drop by huge amounts but for this to happen there has to be a collapse.

Now when they drop to 100k or whatever the person on 35k will not be able to buy one.

why, because for them to drop to 100k all the people who could have bought them at 150 will not have jobs,

So what I am saying is that Ireland is potentialy headed for en economic meltdown, where taxes will be increased heavily to pay for social services and interest rates will rise.

there may be people on 35k but it wont be the people who are on that today, it will be the people who were on 100k.

20goto10

Ireland is the great EU experiment. Migrant workers and a wide open economy. Its proved to be good when the global economy is good and bad when the global economy is bad. There is nothing to suggest anything else is happening. When the global economy recovers, Ireland will recover (and imo it also depends on whether we can recover our pro EU image after the Lisbon debacle). To say Ireland will never recover is saying the world will never recover. People talked about how every bubble is the same and laughed at people who said "ah but this time is different". Now those same people who laughed are the ones saying that this time the bust is different.

If there's one thing I've learnt over the past 10 years is that the Irish love their band wagons. Something's not worth doing unless everyone is doing it. When in fact the complete opposite is true. Now there's no band wagon people don't know what to do. So they're trying to create a new band wagon called the "lets all regurgitate what we read in the papers and see on the news and sit at home doing nothing cause sure aren't we all doomed to lose our jobs and go back to 1980" band wagon. All aboard!

Whats that got to do with property? Everything. This talk that behind it all there's actually something else going on or something happening in Ireland that is not happening in the rest of the world is utter nonsense.

jmayo

20goto10 wrote: »

How exactly are you losing money? This is boom talk turned on its head! Nothing happens until you sell it...

How exactly do you finance your investment, do you mind tying up money in and investment that is costing youn money ?
Do you usually go for long term investments that cost you money for x no.of years before they start to break even ?

20goto10 wrote: »

Ireland is the great EU experiment. Migrant workers and a wide open economy. Its proved to be good when the global economy is good and bad when the global economy is bad. There is nothing to suggest anything else is happening. When the global economy recovers, Ireland will recover (and imo it also depends on whether we can recover our pro EU image after the Lisbon debacle). To say Ireland will never recover is saying the world will never recover. People talked about how every bubble is the same and laughed at people who said "ah but this time is different". Now those same people who laughed are the ones saying that this time the bust is different....

Oh FFS, you appear to be singing from the FF hymm sheet. It is all a global problem and everything will be fine once the global economy recovers.
No mention of fact that average house price is 10 times multiple of average industrial wage and there is an over supply in the market that will takes years to clear. There is also an oversupply in commerical market becuase business no longer exist.

Do you ever read newspapers or watch news on TV.
Do you realise a lot of our indigenous industry has gone and a lot of our FDIs have upped stakes and headed to either Eastern Europe or Far East ?
We are not competitive anymore, mainly because of the price of accomodation in this country over the last 7/8 years.
And you want that price to go back up to the unsustainable 10 times plus multiple of average industrial wage :rolleyes:
That ain't going to happen because no.1 they ain't going to be the cheap credit and no.2 we won't be able to raise salaries because of job market.

20goto10

jmayo wrote: »

How exactly do you finance your investment, do you mind tying up money in and investment that is costing youn money ?
Do you usually go for long term investments that cost you money for x no.of years before they start to break even ?

Yes, actually thats what happens in a recession or any kind of downturn. I'm also lumping loads of money into my pension. If I was to cash that in now I'd lose a small fortune. If I was to buy a property now, do nothing to it and try to sell it in 2-4 years I'd also lose a small fortune. What exactly is your point? The world is doomed and we should all just sit at home and scratch our asses?

You are automatically assuming that anything built with bricks and mortars is a doomed failure indefinitely. And thats great, cause it was all the schmucks on the street jumping on the band wagon that caused this mess in the first place. So it really is best if Joe Schmuck went back to data inputting or shoe shinning or whatever it is he came from before he got the bright idea to make a quick buck by buying and selling shoe boxes holes in the middle of nowhere without even lifting as much as paint brush. That form of "investment" is not what I'm talking about.

ntlbell

20goto10 wrote: »

Yes, actually thats what happens in a recession or any kind of downturn. I'm also lumping loads of money into my pension. If I was to cash that in now I'd lose a small fortune. If I was to buy a property now, do nothing to it and try to sell it in 2-4 years I'd also lose a small fortune. What exactly is your point? The world is doomed and we should all just sit at home and scratch our asses?

You are automatically assuming that anything built with bricks and mortars is a doomed failure indefinitely. And thats great, cause it was all the schmucks on the street jumping on the band wagon that caused this mess in the first place. So it really is best if Joe Schmuck went back to data inputting or shoe shinning or whatever it is he came from before he got the bright idea to make a quick buck by buying and selling shoe boxes holes in the middle of nowhere without even lifting as much as paint brush. That form of "investment" is not what I'm talking about.

What are you talking about?

My pension isn't currently losing any money because i moved it into cash.

it's not making as much as it might have in previous years but it's not losing money, I don't see what it has to do with the discussion tho.

If you have a choice of making money today AND making MORE money down the road

or losing your bo||ox today and making money down the road

what would you choose?

this doesn't take anything past 1st class primary school math's

jmayo

20goto10 wrote: »

Yes, actually thats what happens in a recession or any kind of downturn. I'm also lumping loads of money into my pension. If I was to cash that in now I'd lose a small fortune. If I was to buy a property now, do nothing to it and try to sell it in 2-4 years I'd also lose a small fortune. What exactly is your point? The world is doomed and we should all just sit at home and scratch our asses?

You are automatically assuming that anything built with bricks and mortars is a doomed failure indefinitely. And thats great, cause it was all the schmucks on the street jumping on the band wagon that caused this mess in the first place. So it really is best if Joe Schmuck went back to data inputting or shoe shinning or whatever it is he came from before he got the bright idea to make a quick buck by buying and selling shoe boxes holes in the middle of nowhere without even lifting as much as paint brush. That form of "investment" is not what I'm talking about.

Fair enough about pensions, if they invest wisely in shares then good when share prices are low.
Personnally I thought baout lumping loads into my pension but I do not trust an Irish pension fund not to just stick to old habit of putting it into top ISEQ companies that are probably not going to perform for next 10 years. Now EU based pension fund might be different.

Anyway back on topic to invest in property at moment.
I would say it is fine if you have cash that you don't need quick access to and don't mind tying up pretty long term, but if you are going after mortgages it means you may be servicing a mortgage that is costing you more than the property is returning and at the same time the property may be worth less than what you paid for it (taking in inflation) for a good many years.
As you have rightly pointed out property is no longer the quick path to riches by flipping after couple of months or years.

I do think you have an overly rosey outlook on Ireland's future.
As someone mentioned London might be good place to get involved since they have far better chance of recovery and exchange rates are favourable but again it would be real long term.
Ireland is a basket case and will probably be so for many many years.
Don't hold out for property prices here to return to highs of early 2007 for another many years.

20goto10

ntlbell wrote: »

What are you talking about?

My pension isn't currently losing any money because i moved it into cash.

it's not making as much as it might have in previous years but it's not losing money, I don't see what it has to do with the discussion tho.

If you have a choice of making money today AND making MORE money down the road

or losing your bo||ox today and making money down the road

what would you choose?

this doesn't take anything past 1st class primary school math's

My stocks have an estimated value of what they are worth if I cashed them in now. but that is completely irrelavent as I'm nowhere near retirement. What counts are the amount of units I have and there's never been a better time for building up your stock. The cheaper they are the more you can buy and the more you buy the more profit you will make eventually. There are risks of course but I'm at the age where there is little risk involved and in fact the more I can buy now the better come retirement.

Similarly in an investment property, its what you own that matters and come selling time, if what you own is something worth buying then you'll make a profit.

I agree that if I wait another 2-3 years or so I'll get something even cheaper and my point will still stand only I won't have to wait so long to get my head above water so to speak. My point was, going a bit back now, that nows the time to start looking around. It all depends on the particular property. I believe some may be worth buying now because you can pretty much have the rent cover your mortgage, not your mortgage interest but your actual mortgage. Its also a buyers market, wait to long and you can lose the advantage. And more importantly if you do find something that has good letting value now and also shows potential for the future then you need to judge whether you're going to find something like that again if you let it go. Yes rents are going down but rate cuts are going down by much more, meaning it doesn't hurt the bottom line.

Thats all I've to say I don't think I can put the same point across in any more ways.

jackal

Are you basing your assumptions about property on the recent past? Have a look-see at this. Residential property is not a particularly great long term investment. It just tracks inflation.