Labour overtake FF in polls.

Stroke Politics

Tomorrow's Irish Times MRBI poll figures.....

FF 22% (-5)
FG 32% (-2)
Lab 24% (+10)
Gr 4% (nc)
SF 9% (+1)

MG

Stroke Politics wrote: »

Tomorrow's Irish Times MRBI poll figures.....

FF 22% (-5)
FG 32% (-2)
Lab 24% (+10)
Gr 4% (nc)
SF 9% (+1)

If this is right, they've done really well.

Gilmore and to a lesser extent Burton have been outstanding recently.

Pity their policies are exactly the opposite of what we need right now, but you can see how it would appeal to the masses.

FG + Lab now at 56%, whereas Lab+ FF at 46%. At least that points to a badly needed change and realisticly the FG/Lab combo is the only alternative to Failure Fail.

Alessandra

duplicate THread. didn't see the other.oops.. delete

turgon

Good as those figures are, I wonder in doubt whether they would be repeated in an election. Would people still go for the aul FF. Oh to see labour second biggest party in the state, my only gripe against them being their love affair with the unions. But Gilmore is the man.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Hillel

Alessandra wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0212/poll.html

"A surge in support for Labour has driven Fianna Fáil into third place in the latest opinion poll.......................

It was only a matter of time. What will this mean though? General election? Is there any point?

I so, at this stage I have lost all confidence in the current administration. For whatever reason they appear unable to take the necessary decisions, let alone have the credibility to make them stick. Meanwhile our international reputation, critical to any recovery, goes further down the swanney. The New York Times has already labelled Ireland "the wild west of European finance". I wonder what does that make Brian Linehan?

I am not partisan, politics wise. Neither have I been a member of any political party. However, I am absolutely prepared to be a foot soldier for Labour, this time out. We need more than a change of government. We need an entirely different approach to government. One that recognises the responsibilities and duties of government deputies, ministers, Tanaiste and Taoiseach. Bring it on!

Stroke Politics

If the election had been called today, FG would have to look to FF to form a coalition, to ensure the maximum number of cabinet positions as the lead party in the coalition. That would be a seismic shift, burying civil war politics for the first time ever.

Bear in mind also, that this poll was taken in the days BEFORE Lenihan told us he did not read the PWC report on the €7B B&B arrangement between Anglo & Irish Life, and Batt O'Thief's cuts in resource teachers....

nesf

Threads merged, title changed.

dresden8

Stroke Politics wrote: »

If the election had been called today, FG would have to look to FF to form a coalition, to ensure the maximum number of cabinet positions as the lead party in the coalition. That would be a seismic shift, burying civil war politics for the first time ever.

Bear in mind also, that this poll was taken in the days BEFORE Lenihan told us he did not read the PWC report on the €7B B&B arrangement between Anglo & Irish Life, and Batt O'Thief's cuts in resource teachers....

One of the reasons Labour has been languishing for so long is because they went in with FF before.

If Labour put an unpopular FF party back in government it's over forever for them.

Stroke Politics

dresden8 wrote: »

One of the reasons Labour has been languishing for so long is because they went in with FF before.

If Labour put an unpopular FF party back in government it's over forever for them.

They've languished since 1919, and FF stole their clothes in 1926......

eoinbn

Stroke Politics wrote: »

Tomorrow's Irish Times MRBI poll figures.....

FF 22% (-5)
FG 32% (-2)
Lab 24% (+10)
Gr 4% (nc)
SF 9% (+1)

Interesting, but not really surprising. The public sector has fallen out of love with FF and the only party that has been courting them has been Labour.

Pity their policies are exactly the opposite of what we need right now, but you can see how it would appeal to the masses.

Possibly, but there is shift to the left going on around world wide right now.

nesf

eoinbn wrote: »

Possibly, but there is shift to the left going on around world wide right now.

Yeah, depressing isn't it?

Carraigrock

what about a rainbow -
FG, Labour and Greens all in power?....FF out in the cold.

What are the chances?

Stroke Politics

Carraigrock wrote: »

what about a rainbow -
FG, Labour and Greens all in power?....FF out in the cold.

What are the chances?

More likely FG/Greens/Independents, and the left wing in opposition.....

lostexpectation

New Labour here we come

Tom65

Labour won't overtake FF in a General Election, though it's good to see them doing so well (there's a lot of Labour TDs I don't really like, but generally they're quite good).

On those results, there couldn't be a FG/Green/Independent government because they wouldn't have enough seats. It'd have to go FG/Labour, which would, presumably, give Labour half the cabinet.

Interesting to see the Greens unchanged. I think more and more the blame for the current financial crisis seems to be pointed towards FF, with the Greens as accessories to the crime itself. That said, they'll take a massive hit next election if things keep going the way they do.

ateam

lostexpectation wrote: »

New Labour here we come

If anything they are returning to old socialist ideas. Their opportunistic comments and opposition of the banks no matter what, are the main reasons for their increased support.

They have offered no solid alternative to any government proposals and have been notably quiet on the pension levy. Has Labour said if they're going to support the unions in industrial action for instance?

corribdude

Who are the retards who put Fianna FAIL at 22%? There are two many old biddys and whiskeyheads who are too stuck in their ways in this country.

irish_bob

as i expected a swing to the left , no real rise in support for fine gael

looks like gilmore,s left wing populist( anti business pro public servant ) jargon has paid off

mike65

Nothing to see here as the next election is about 36 months away.

FG/Lab might be crapping themselves at the thought of inheriting this.

Agent Smith

pfkf on politics.ie wrote:

On these figures the seat totals would be

FG - 69 seats
LP - 40 seats
FF - 33 Seats
SF - 8 seats
GP - 4 seats
Inds - 12 seats

Here


Which would mean FG+LAB have 109 seats, a majority of 15

or you could have LAB+FF+SF+GP with 85 seats, a majority of 1

Not including the Ceann Comhaile.

mike65

Maths 101?

ateam

I would love to see Eamon Gilmore as Minister for Finance(just for a laugh).

mike65

Ruairi Quinn did a pretty good job if we ignore the 1 pound pension rise fiasco.

jimmycrackcorm

I missed something - what did Labour do to get a rise in popularity other than just get the throw me off clothes of FF dissatisfaction.

nesf

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I missed something - what did Labour do to get a rise in popularity other than just get the throw me off clothes of FF dissatisfaction.

Populist ranting from the pulpit by Gilmore. He's damn good at it.

corribdude

Infracted for saying 'retards'...is this boards.china or boards.ie...for god sake that word has been a part of everyday vernacular for the last 15+ years, and even more so online. Its just another word for idiot, look up retard in any thesaurus. Infraction would be fair enough if I had called another poster a retard but just for giving my opinion on the people who voted FF in this poll this is way over the top. Do a search for idiots on this forum you will find lots of posts where people call the electorate idiots and also call various other non members of this forum idiots for their political views.

nesf

If you've a problem with a moderating decision PM us about it don't argue about it on the thread please.

deadhead13

corribdude wrote: »

Who are the retards who put Fianna FAIL at 22%? There are two many old biddys and whiskeyheads who are too stuck in their ways in this country.

Over 70's medical card chickens coming home to roost.

gurramok

eoinbn wrote: »

Interesting, but not really surprising. The public sector has fallen out of love with FF and the only party that has been courting them has been Labour.

Possibly, but there is shift to the left going on around world wide right now.

Think eoinbn has it all in one here.

The heavily unionised public sector always swung between FF and Labour. Bertie paid them off with benchmarking in previous elections for FF and now that has gone sour, they swing back to the traditional 'left wing' party which has strong ties to unions.

Plus the general public will go swing left wing(sorry for rhyme:D) when their job security/standard of living is threatened.

The first bunch are looking for protection from economic reality while the second bunch is facing economic reality and wants a lift, the irony in that this love-in will not last long.

samsemtex

nesf wrote: »

Populist ranting from the pulpit by Gilmore. He's damn good at it.

Populist ranting? Are you a fianna fail-ist? I am not party political at all but from what i have heard from gilmore in the Dail he makes some very compelling arguments, asks some very serious questions to which the Taoiseach/ministers shouls have answers to and genuinely does seem to care about the electorate. He seems to be one of the few tds that actually cares...and that, in this country anyway, seems to be something that is sadly lacking. I genuinely believe that anyone who believes FF have genuinely have the country's best interests at heart is lacking something mentally.

Sparks

The interesting thing about the poll is that it was carried out after the positive media reaction to Cowen's "inspirational off-the-cuff" speech (though in my opinion, if that was the high point of his rhetorical prowess, the man is a dire speaker at best); but before the debacle over what Lenihan read or didn't read had broken, and before nearly 1400 jobs went at Dublin airport and nearly 500 more in Limerick.

FF's figures right now have got to be below 20%.

Stargal

Interestingly, the poll was taken just a couple of days after Cowen's speech at the Four Seasons, which suggests that the media was far more enamoured with it than the public were. Also considering the whole Anglo-ILP thing hadn't broken when the poll was taken, wonder if support for FF would have been even lower if the pollsters had waited a couple of days?

nesf wrote: »

Populist ranting from the pulpit by Gilmore. He's damn good at it.

Actually I think one of the reasons that Gilmore is so good is because he seems to be so sincere about what he says and does, which is resounding with the public in the way that no other Labour leader ('cept maybe for Spring in 91-92) has ever been able to do. Don't see anything populist about it at all - he's echoing what Labour have been saying for years.

ateam wrote: »

They have offered no solid alternative to any government proposals and have been notably quiet on the pension levy.

Actually, they have. They put forward a full stimulus package a few months ago. And just yesterday they put out a whole thing about bank recapitalisation and the principles that must underpin it if it's going to work. Just cos you haven't seen it doesn't mean they haven't done it;)

Edit: Heh, Sparks got there just before me with the thing about Cowen's speech. Great minds dude, great minds...

nesf

samsemtex wrote: »

Populist ranting?

Populist:

3. A person who seeks to represent the views of ordinary people.



Like I said, he's good at it.

Pride Fighter

Labour are offering a lot of good policies IMO. They opposed the bank bailout, which FF and FG supported. I have a bad feeling that guaranteeing 400 billion euro of deposits will bite us in the ass. Labour are offering hope, instead of despair. They want to create jobs and grow us out of the recession like what Obama is doing in the states. Labour want to use the 20 billion pension reserve fund to do this. Whereas Fianna Fail are using the pension reserve fund to bailout their developer friends and hit the most vulnerable in society. I've never voted Labour before but now I want Gilmore for Taoiseach. Can he do a good job?? YES HE CAN.

K-9

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Labour are offering a lot of good policies IMO. They opposed the bank bailout, which FF and FG supported. I have a bad feeling that guaranteeing 400 billion euro of deposits will bite us in the ass. Labour are offering hope, instead of despair. They want to create jobs and grow us out of the recession like what Obama is doing in the states. Labour want to use the 20 billion pension reserve fund to do this. Whereas Fianna Fail are using the pension reserve fund to bailout their developer friends and hit the most vulnerable in society. I've never voted Labour before but now I want Gilmore for Taoiseach. Can he do a good job?? YES HE CAN.

One of the few good things FF did was create the pensions reserve fund, a savings fund. Labour argued against it.

Now they want to raid it!

Pride Fighter

K-9 wrote: »

One of the few good things FF did was create the pensions reserve fund, a savings fund. Labour argued against it.

Now they want to raid it!

FF are raiding it to bail out Sean Quinn, Bertie and Cowens developer cronies and to give Brian Goggin 2 million euro a year. Seems like a great idea:rolleyes:

K-9

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF are raiding it to bail out Sean Quinn, Bertie and Cowens developer cronies and to give Brian Goggin 2 million euro a year. Seems like a great idea:rolleyes:

It's repayable!

The point is, people moan about the Govt. not saving, they did!

Why raid it more?

irish_bob

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I missed something - what did Labour do to get a rise in popularity other than just get the throw me off clothes of FF dissatisfaction.

they engaged in populism , non specifics about protecting the vulnerable ( which apparently include most public servants ) , going after tax shelters ( no specifics ) and demanding accountability , again no specifics

The_Minister

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Labour are offering a lot of good policies IMO. They opposed the bank bailout, which FF and FG supported. I have a bad feeling that guaranteeing 400 billion euro of deposits will bite us in the ass. Labour are offering hope, instead of despair. They want to create jobs and grow us out of the recession like what Obama is doing in the states. Labour want to use the 20 billion pension reserve fund to do this. Whereas Fianna Fail are using the pension reserve fund to bailout their developer friends and hit the most vulnerable in society. I've never voted Labour before but now I want Gilmore for Taoiseach. Can he do a good job?? YES HE CAN.

We really can't afford a splurge in spending (hell, we can't borrow enough to pay this years deficit, let alone next years and the year after). We don't have the money, and we won't be able to refill the pension fund if we do empty it.

Tabnabs

ateam wrote: »

I would love to see Eamon Gilmore as Minister for Finance(just for a laugh).

Why, aren't you getting enough laughs with Brian Lenihan??? :rolleyes:

nesf

Right some more detail on the Labour number from the Irish Times:

The surge in Labour support has pushed it close to Fine Gael and well ahead of Fianna Fáil in Dublin where it gets 22 per cent. The party gets 18 per cent in Munster, 15 per cent in the Rest of Leinster and 10 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.

In age terms Labour is weakest among the youngest 18 to 24-year-old category. Support increases up the age groups and is strongest among those over 50. In class terms the party’s strongest support comes from the best-off AB voters and is weakest among the poorest DE voters.

from: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0213/1233867934939.html?via=rel


I find this a bit odd. I'd have expected Gilmore to have strong appeal in the 18-24 age group and among DE voters. I appreciate that Labour have aimed more for the AB group over the past few years but I'm surprised that still holds true given the economic conditions.

That said, I imagine voter turnout is a lot better among the over-50 AB group so if I had to pick a group to be supporting me...


Edit: By the way, only 40% of FF voters are happy with the Government and only 15% of Green voters are which is interesting.

stakey

I don't find that surprising at all. There's a huge gap in political education through the development of Ireland's youth. Not only is there very little political education but there is very little relevant engagement with people younger than 25 by all political parties.

Most people in that age bracket tend to either not vote at all as the political system fails to represent their interests and engage with them or vote the way of their parents.

Lockstep

I think the problem here is that Labour was always competing with FF for the working class votes, Labour was great until Fianna Fáil came along and started poaching the working class vote with their social reform, housing schemes and not being socialist (important for the religious aspect)

Now that Fianna Fáil are seen to let down the working class and Labour are vocally supportive of the public sector the results don't really surprise me.

P. Breathnach

kickoutthejams wrote: »

I think the problem here is that Labour was always competing with FF for the working class votes, Labour was great until Fianna Fáil came along and started poaching the working class vote with their social reform, housing schemes and not being socialist (important for the religious aspect)

Now that Fianna Fáil are seen to let down the working class and Labour are vocally supportive of the public sector the results don't really surprise me.

That seems persuasive until one looks back to the demographic nesf pointed out. It's not so much the working class who are moving to Labour, as middle class people with working class sympathies. Them and public service workers.

thebigcheese22

I really think Labour can maintain this momentum going into the local elections and eventually the general election (whenever that is, I don't think anybody expects this government to last to 2012 :rolleyes:) I resent the claim that Gilmore and my party are populist, they have the best interests of the country at heart e.g. opposing the bank guarantee in case it bankrupts us.
If this continues we will be seeing an historical change - the end of Civil War politics.
Surely thats something that all right-minded people can welcome?

YES WE CAN!

irish_bob

thebigcheese22 wrote: »

I really think Labour can maintain this momentum going into the local elections and eventually the general election (whenever that is, I don't think anybody expects this government to last to 2012 :rolleyes:) I resent the claim that Gilmore and my party are populist, they have the best interests of the country at heart e.g. opposing the bank guarantee in case it bankrupts us.
If this continues we will be seeing an historical change - the end of Civil War politics.
Surely thats something that all right-minded people can welcome?

YES WE CAN!

they are engaging in populism at the moment , they see the public sector vote as being up for grabs and they are pulling out all the stops , ruari quinn was talking about public sector reform last summer , you hear no such language from anyone in labour right now

thebigcheese22

irish_bob wrote: »

they are engaging in populism at the moment , they see the public sector vote as being up for grabs and they are pulling out all the stops , ruari quinn was talking about public sector reform last summer , you hear no such language from anyone in labour right now

They're all for getting rid of the fat cats in management - for example they've criticised the HSE consistently over its buerocracy. What's unacceptable is hitting the ordinary worker with a pay cut when they never were responsible for the mess we're in now.

I've said it before and I'l say it again, the public sector is all to easy to blame.

You sir are engaging in populist bull**** of your own.

Lockstep

P. Breathnach wrote: »

That seems persuasive until one looks back to the demographic nesf pointed out. It's not so much the working class who are moving to Labour, as middle class people with working class sympathies. Them and public service workers.

Source please?

The_Minister

thebigcheese22 wrote: »

What's unacceptable is hitting the ordinary worker with a pay cut when they never were responsible for the mess we're in now.

We'll explain this again.

Public sector workers are like babies, sucking on our proverbial teat.

Mommy has just gone dry.

It doesn't matter why, it doesn't matter that baby didn't cause it, the fact is that baby is going hungry for a while.

The public sector feed off our collective taxes (and don't give me the "we pay taxes too" stuff, you pay a fraction of what you cost.), and those taxes have pretty much run out. Ergo, you get less.

We aren't blaming you, but we can't give you what we don't have.

Sparks

We should get that put on a T-shirt.

And then make every fireman, nurse, ER doctor, teacher and garda wear it.

Feck's sake, do you really think the public sector have no right to query why they're having to pay for a problem that was caused by the private sector?