Monday Night: Heavy Snow and Rain threat

darkman2

The ECM 12z has come out and things are looking well dodgy now on Monday Night into Tuesday

Monday 18:00





Tuesday 00:00






Tuesday 06:00







All I can is :eek::D

Seriously though that looks nasty.


Im not one to sensationalise these things btw but bloody hell. You can't avoid it with charts like that. East Coasts may get away with some of that but inland that could cause serious commuter problems. Just bare it in mind.

The posistioning of the low is changing like a yo yo. Is that the Eagle's idea of 'wintry showers'?:D

Supercell

Eh..that looks like rain and maybe sleet for most to me?

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

Eh..that looks like rain and maybe sleet for most to me?

I edit the title to take in your caution but those charts say snow to me. Rain and Sleet probrably initially. But im telling yeh inland that would be increasingly snow into the night:P (IMO)


The reason I say that is the -5 850 isotherm over much of the country. We will need to see the finer details but there is definately a risk there.

Could be flooding too.

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

I edit the title to take in your caution but those charts say snow to me. Rain and Sleet probrably initially. But im telling yeh inland that would be increasingly snow into the night:P (IMO)


The reason I say that is the -5 850 isotherm over much of the country. We will need to see the finer details but there is definately a risk there.

Those charts say marginal snow to me here, at sea its not marginal at all imho.

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

Those charts say marginal snow to me here, at sea its not marginal at all imho.

I gaurantee that if that came off there would be alot of snow. Where is WC!? Supercell does not believe me:(

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

Those charts say marginal snow to me here, at sea its not marginal at all imho.

i beg to differ. if that low track further south then parts of ireland will see some snow monday night

ninebeanrows

Think you might of made an error in judgement Supercell!

Obviously by the coast very marginal but the GFS and ECM paint a very interesting picture.

The intensity of the precip would also be a very important factor.

GFS has the same setup and proggs snow.

darkman2

Here is a thought Weathercheck - the ECM is colder then the GFS. Serious snow event on the way I think. Very steep thermal gradient there and as you mention evaporative cooling aswell. Very strong Northeasterly winds too.

Lets see what the 18:00 GFS comes up with.

Supercell

I'm still not convinced fella's, those charts are tasty but i dont think they mean that many places <100metres are going to have extra lying snow, and anything below that may have tempory stuff. Have a look at the annamoe.net forecast, for lower down I see snow-sleet-rain..or maybe just sleet -rain.

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

I'm still not convinced fella's, those charts are tasty but i dont think they mean that many places <100metres are going to have extra lying snow, and anything below that may have tempory stuff. Have a look at the annamoe.net forecast, for lower down I see snow-sleet-rain..or maybe just sleet -rain.

We will have to agree to disagree. This look like a potentially very disruptive event. The most serious in many years on the evidence as we have it. Im not saying I think your wrong, you may be right. In fact for your sake I hope your right:eek:

MUSEIST

wow i have been doing this whole model watching thing for a number of years now and what interesting times we are in now. considering last weeks weather and a potential snow event for some in the morning and another one on mon .could snowfall become more "normal" than the the usual muck we have this february. we might remember feb 09 for a long time:D

Min

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=prec

It looks like there will be snow somewhere at least...

ninebeanrows

Supercell wrote: »

I'm still not convinced fella's, those charts are tasty but i dont think they mean that many places <100metres are going to have extra lying snow, and anything below that may have tempory stuff. Have a look at the annamoe.net forecast, for lower down I see snow-sleet-rain..or maybe just sleet -rain.

It is indeed marginal.

But temps, 850hpa temps and intense precip are in our favour.

With the onshore easterly wind mind it will be likely sleet near the coast, like for me, but under present indications from GFS and ECM i would say if it were to come off as projected, big falls of snow over the mountains and big falls of snow inland from the coast.

- As DM says there is the possibility of a severe event with blizzards and high snowfall totals, and just 60hrs away must be watched very closely.

ninebeanrows

Here's a chart to indicate why this is likely to fall as snow.

In most other cases this probably wouldn't be snow but these charts add confidence.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here's a chart to indicate why this is likely to fall as snow.

In most other cases this probably wouldn't be snow but these charts add confidence.

Yep - 16 (or is it 18? - I think it is 16) is the magic number on those charts. Anything lower is likely to be snow.

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

Yep - 16 (or is it 18? - I think it is 16) is the magic number on those charts. Anything lower is likely to be snow.

14 is the figure for definate (90%) snow and then 16 70% 18 50%

Pangea

Sorry but i havent a clue about these charts ,what parts of ireland are looking like snowfall on monday night???

maquiladora

How far inland from the coast do you reckon it would need to be to turn to snow? Is about 10km far enough inland?

darkman2

Right now it's anywhere away from East Coasts (though even here snow could occur too).....we still have to get an exact track for the Low so nothing nailed yet. If it goes too far North we would be quickly out of the potential snow zone.

I'm not sure given current form though WC that I'd rely on a t-72 gfs prog to call this.
I reckon monday has the "potential" to give an awfull deep dumping but I suspect it's going to be above 600ft somewhere.

Personally I wouldnt dare go any further than that at this stage.

If we had a cold surface air feed to draw on,we'd be in business lower down.
We dont really.It's Easterly but a well modified circulatory flow.

Play this one by ear methinks.

Pangea

darkman2 wrote: »

We will have to agree to disagree. This look like a potentially very disruptive event. The most serious in many years on the evidence as we have it. Im not saying I think your wrong, you may be right. In fact for your sake I hope your right:eek:

wow , very disruptive ? how many inches of snow u think if it comes off?

darkman2

Pangea wrote: »

wow , very disruptive ? how many inches of snow u think if it comes off?

Alot inland (relatively speaking for Ireland). Not sure about coastal windward areas. More marginal here for sure. Like I say it's not nailed but is a possibility even though it is only 54 hours out.

Pangea

ok ,lol but whats a lot? 5 inches ? 10 inches ?

darkman2

Pangea wrote: »

ok ,lol but whats a lot? 5 inches ? 10 inches ?

I can't give exact amounts:P - impossible to tell how many inches may occur. Lets just get within 12 hours first then discuss amounts.

Min

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/ for what it is worth is giving heavy snow for far north as Laois...

Pangea

Min wrote: »

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/ for what it is worth is giving heavy snow for far north as Laois...

lol , I wouldnt mention laois and north in the same sentence :P
Thanks for the link though.

lads are we talking more snow than weve had this week? or than weve had in years? How big could this be?

Min

Pangea wrote: »

lol , I wouldnt mention laois and north in the same sentence :P
Thanks for the link though.

lol, its north of me

Just a reminder again.
Metcheck is just an automated programme that guesses conditions in your area based on the latest GFS run.
Therefore it's basically useless as a forecast except for maybe the next 12 hours...and for that you'd be aswell watching the TV forecasts [with the exception of the TV3 ones]

maquiladora

I dunno lads, I just have a feeling this is going to be rain, for me anyway. GFS does not inspire any confidence and it's not exactly FI.

I hope I'm wrong. :pac:

Darwin

Well Gerry Murphy fairly knocked the chances of snow on the head for Monday...rain all the way

Jackeenboy

Will this reach as far north as Dublin ??:D Rte just said it would be rain on Monday night, sure what do they know!

dedon

Rain according to Met Eireann on RTE one there

darkman2

Latest GFS run has the precip missing us completely as the Low is further south. So the track looks very uncertain. UKMO also has it too far south. Very different to the ECM. Should get some clarity tomorrow.

P.S Met Eireann forcasting rain - if it does hit us like the ECM suggests it's going to be snow for most IMO. If it goes to the south it will be snow for England.

arctictree

darkman2 wrote: »

Latest GFS run has the precip missing us completely as the Low is further south. So the track looks very uncertain. UKMO also has it too far south. Very different to the ECM. Should get some clarity tomorrow.

P.S Met Eireann forcasting rain - if it does hit us like the ECM suggests it's going to be snow for most IMO. If it goes to the south it will be snow for England.

Even if the front is too far south we could get some home grown Irish sea stuff. Like last Thursday.

200motels

Don't think that weather system will get too close to us.

Mr Benevolent

Don't think Monday/Tuesday will be up to much lads, but tonight or later in the week might be interesting.

lucernarian

GFS midnight run also has the LP too far south to give anything but the southern coastline some rain.

Tbh, I'd prefer it to keep too far south rather than have heavy sleet like Tuesday this week...

Min

Met Eireann at 7:55am said it would move north tomorrow and away from southern coasts it is likely to fall as sleet and snow, heaviest in the southern part of the country.

Brainz

lads snow very thick in clondalkin !!!

LordSutch

Sunday Morning, South Dublin > Snowing (fine snow), but I dont expect it to stick this time, too much influence from the Atlantic according to all weather reports > sleet/rain later in the day maybe ..................

No dout some snow will 'stick' on higher ground.

Darwin

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann at 7:55am said it would move north tomorrow and away from southern coasts it is likely to fall as sleet and snow, heaviest in the southern part of the country.

Wow...bbc rainfall prediction and GFS shows that low missing us to the south completely.

vibe666

i don't know about monday night, but it's snowing pretty heavily in Navan right now.



was planning on going for Sunday lunch at the in-laws but I don't know if we'd get back the way it's snowing right now. :eek:

even with a 4WD the main problem we had last week was getting stuck behind all the people who don't have one.

Gary ITR

Well I've just driven to work in Dublin and tis bad out there. Although it seems to be thawing quire quickly

nacho libre

met.ie:

Tomorrow will begin cold, dry and bright in most areas but a band of heavy rain and strengthening easterly winds will spread from the south as the day progresses and there is a high risk that this will fall as sleet and snow in some places away from the south coast. Highest temperatures 2 to 5 degrees.

ninebeanrows

nacho libre wrote: »

met.ie:

Tomorrow will begin cold, dry and bright in most areas but a band of heavy rain and strengthening easterly winds will spread from the south as the day progresses and there is a high risk that this will fall as sleet and snow in some places away from the south coast. Highest temperatures 2 to 5 degrees.

The placing off the precip is still very uncertain, could reach Antrim or might just clip Cork!

darkman2

The GFS ensembles place it slightly further north then the op run so alot of confusion really. The sea area forcast on Met.ie suggest something more widespread aswell.


Hopefully this will be sorted by tonight.

jenzz

darkman2 wrote: »

The GFS ensembles place it slightly further north then the op run so alot of confusion really. The sea area forcast on Met.ie suggest something more widespread aswell.


Hopefully this will be sorted by tonight.

Ah christ ! Ok experts I need your help - Driveway cant get out of since thur night - severe ice - inch thick easily - currently whiteout!

Tuesday morning we have 1 being confirmed 11am in Dunlaoghaire - whats the chance of mayhem!

darkman2

jenzz wrote: »

Ah christ ! Ok experts I need your help - Driveway cant get out of since thur night - severe ice - inch thick easily - currently whiteout!

Tuesday morning we have 1 being confirmed 11am in Dunlaoghaire - whats the chance of mayhem!

No one knows atm. For now the most likely outcome is you won't have a problem on Tuesday.

nacho libre

i'm looking forward to the forecasts on the bbc and rte now. it'll be interesting to see what they say for Monday.

ninebeanrows

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm looking forward to the forecasts on the bbc and rte now. it'll be interesting to see what they say for Monday.

BBC will just have the automated 6z UKM output which is one of the most southerly tracks although edging towards the ECM.