How long until society collapses

LoveDucati2 · 31-01-2009 1:22pm #1

I am curious to get some opinions on how long it would take until society collapses.

How long would it take for complete anarchy to break out in Ireland if the following happens next year.

The country has massive strikes and demonstrations and defaults on all loans. 500,000 people on the dole.

Power and water get cut off and goods transportation stops, shops run out of food because of stockpiling, all government services cease.

Hows many days of this would be needed for a complete breakdown of society?

Latchy · 31-01-2009 1:26pm

Head for the hills .......now .

A few days / a week at the most

LoveDucati2 · 31-01-2009 1:33pm

latchyco wrote: »

Head for the hills .......now .

A few days / a week at the most

Yeah, I was thinking 3 or 4 days, defo within 7,

what do you think would happen?

mike65 · 31-01-2009 1:34pm

Jebus I'm willing to bet neither of you are old enough to remember the 80s then?

/latchyco may be joking.

old boy · 31-01-2009 1:34pm

where will it start ?

LoveDucati2 · 31-01-2009 1:36pm

mike65 wrote: »

Jebus I'm willing to bet neither of you are old enough to remember the 80s then?

/latchyco may be joking.

I did my leaving cert in the 80's, this is nothing like that.

ejmaztec · 31-01-2009 1:37pm

I'll need at least ten days to finish redecorating my bunker. It's been sadly neglected since the Bay of Pigs.

Latchy · 31-01-2009 1:38pm

mike65 wrote: »

Jebus I'm willing to bet neither of you are old enough to remember the 80s then?

/latchyco may be joking.

About the first bit yes , the second was just a rough guess .Old enough to remember the 80s recession well .

Partially why I still live in uk now .

Latchy · 31-01-2009 1:41pm

LoveDucati2 wrote: »

Yeah, I was thinking 3 or 4 days, defo within 7,

what do you think would happen?

If law and order broke down I imagine some people will panic more than others ( for obious reasons, food ,petrol shortages etc , ) and the goverment would be relying on it's more affulent and educated citizens to give guidence and support in their local communitys .But that's the worst case scenario and not nessacarlly going to happen .

ejmaztec · 31-01-2009 1:49pm

Unfortunately, the criminal elements would be well-armed. With a break-down in law and order they would capitalise on that. Does anyone think that a relatively small army would be able to handle that situation?

Dob74 · 31-01-2009 1:55pm

LoveDucati2 wrote: »

I am curious to get some opinions on how long it would take until society collapses.

How long would it take for complete anarchy to break out in Ireland if the following happens next year.

The country has massive strikes and demonstrations and defaults on all loans. 500,000 people on the dole.

Power and water get cut off and goods transportation stops, shops run out of food because of stockpiling, all government services cease.

Hows many days of this would be needed for a complete breakdown of society?

Worst case scenario

Workers from around the country join the waterford crystal workers in protests. After a month of scuffles serious rioting brokes out. Government has to bail out AIB/BOI which causes the gov to default on its loans. IMF called in and immediately lay-off 25% on public service. Coming into christmas hudreds of homes have there heating cut off. Intense rioting in Dublin means the dail is moved to the Curragh. Most city centres throughout the country are seriously damaged by fire and become no go areas. Military generals place the cabinet under house arrest and place themselves in power.

Latchy · 31-01-2009 1:58pm

ejmaztec wrote: »

Unfortunately, the criminal elements would be well-armed. With a break-down in law and order they would capitalise on that. Does anyone think that a relatively small army would be able to handle that situation?

No , and the soldiers will have their own families in mind should any civil unrest occur .

LoveDucati2 · 31-01-2009 1:59pm

Dob74 wrote: »

Worst case scenario

Workers from around the country join the waterford crystal workers in protests. After a month of scuffles serious rioting brokes out. Government has to bail out AIB/BOI which causes the gov to default on its loans. IMF called in and immediately lay-off 25% on public service. Coming into christmas hudreds of homes have there heating cut off. Intense rioting in Dublin means the dail is moved to the Curragh. Most city centres throughout the country are seriously damaged by fire and become no go areas. Military generals place the cabinet under house arrest and place themselves in power.

Yeah, this is good stuff, the longer it goes on the worse it gets.

Scofflaw · 31-01-2009 2:01pm

One can always talk to ones neighbours.

cordially,
Scofflaw

population · 31-01-2009 2:01pm

I am fairly sure that ours is the one country in the world that couldnt put together a military coup.

The army would have to organise to meet the social partners blah blah blah

Poccington · 31-01-2009 2:04pm

ejmaztec wrote: »

Unfortunately, the criminal elements would be well-armed. With a break-down in law and order they would capitalise on that. Does anyone think that a relatively small army would be able to handle that situation?

With the fact that criminals will be armed?

They're armed but don't have a large enough amount of weaponry or ammunition to carry out any kind of sustained "Operation" if you will, which is something we're already aware of. They'd be a threat to members of the DF who were maybe operating in small numbers but could still be contained. If they were to try anything on a Section of troops or more, it'd be suicide.

The larger problem the DF would face if everything was to go tits up, would be Riot situations.

Permabear · 31-01-2009 2:08pm

This post has been deleted.

mike65 · 31-01-2009 2:12pm

Worst case senario - nothing much happens.

Latchy · 31-01-2009 2:28pm

People might be to complacent , indifferent and not botherd about rioting , specially if there's something decent on the television .

People will be to busy watching news reports of civil unrest .;)

nesf · 31-01-2009 2:30pm

LoveDucati2 wrote: »

The country has massive strikes and demonstrations and defaults on all loans.

Massive strikes? Demonstrations? This is nothing compared to what happened 20 years ago and is relatively mild compared to what's going on in France right now never mind Iceland et al. The couldn't even release the unemployment figures in France yesterday because the statisticians are on strike...

You people are naive if you think this level of unrest is severe..

ejmaztec · 31-01-2009 3:27pm

I think that people here are gluttons for punishment and never did like change. Perhaps there's an as yet undiscovered Catholic guilt gene.

If the current problems persist, perhaps in 800 years, a few people might decide that it would be a good idea to do something about it.

It's going to be dumb insolence and moaning until then.

mike65 · 31-01-2009 3:29pm

google outage more important for more people I reckon.

galwayrush · 31-01-2009 3:30pm

population wrote: »

I am fairly sure that ours is the one country in the world that couldnt put together a military coup.

The army would have to organise to meet the social partners blah blah blah

No point meeting the social partners for a talk,
I thought our Army was deaf............;)

ChocolateSauce · 31-01-2009 3:48pm

If it didn't happen during WWII it won't happen due to rocky economics.

ejmaztec · 31-01-2009 3:56pm

ChocolateSauce wrote: »

If it didn't happen during WWII it won't happen due to rocky economics.

They didn't have Boards.ie then and were still sh1t-scared of their local clergy.:P

RealityCheck · 31-01-2009 4:00pm

This is Ireland not France. We dont do mass sporadic rioting. It would be too much of an effort for most.;)

Tabnabs · 31-01-2009 4:53pm

When did they start handing out hatchets in here? Because there are people running around like headless chickens :rolleyes:

NewDubliner · 31-01-2009 5:34pm

LoveDucati2 wrote: »

I am curious to get some opinions on how long it would take until society collapses....Hows many days of this would be needed for a complete breakdown of society?

We have a society because for hundreds of years, millions of ordinary, decent people realised that by cooperating with each other trading goods and services, we could all enjoy a safe, comfortable standard of living.

Perhaps in past decades we took this civilised bond for granted, but it's times like this that might encourage people to pay more attention to how society works and....make it work.

Darragh29 · 31-01-2009 5:37pm

I know the situation is that bad, but is it really going to descend into the kind of fire & brimstone type scenario being painted here???

ejmaztec · 31-01-2009 5:52pm

NewDubliner wrote: »

We have a society because for hundreds of years, millions of ordinary, decent people realised that by cooperating with each other trading goods and services, we could all enjoy a safe, comfortable standard of living.

Perhaps in past decades we took this civilised bond for granted, but it's times like this that might encourage people to pay more attention to how society works and....make it work.

Don't mention the wars.

NewDubliner · 31-01-2009 5:56pm

ejmaztec wrote: »

Don't mention the wars.

That was where one society tried to take out another. For example, if things get so bad, that the UK decides to invade us to get our natural resources (and our best looking women).

We could declare war on the US, then they'd have to invade and rebuild our country?

Or we could try and do a 'Switzerland'.

HercHauk · 31-01-2009 6:06pm

Hahaha!

NewDubliner · 31-01-2009 6:09pm

Or we could fight among ourselves and take each other down just as we did in our glorious 'Celtic' past.

Nodin · 31-01-2009 6:54pm

LoveDucati2 wrote: »

I am curious to get some opinions on how long it would take until society collapses.

How long would it take for complete anarchy to break out in Ireland if the following happens next year.

The country has massive strikes and demonstrations and defaults on all loans. 500,000 people on the dole.

Power and water get cut off and goods transportation stops, shops run out of food because of stockpiling, all government services cease.

Hows many days of this would be needed for a complete breakdown of society?

If NTL went tits up, that would probably have a bigger effect than most of the above. Sad, but possibly true....

mike65 · 31-01-2009 7:44pm

NewDubliner wrote: »

We could declare war on the US, then they'd have to invade and rebuild our country?

Ever seen The Mouse That Roared?

Scofflaw · 31-01-2009 8:25pm

population wrote: »

I am fairly sure that ours is the one country in the world that couldnt put together a military coup.

Certainly it took 700 years last time.

cordially,
cofflaw

Latchy · 01-02-2009 12:23am

Originally Posted by population
I am fairly sure that ours is the one country in the world that couldnt put together a military coup.

We thought about taking over the north in 69 with about 10,000 full time soldiers but perhaps it was a good idea we didn't .

Maybe

jmayo · 01-02-2009 10:49pm

ejmaztec wrote: »

...
If the current problems persist, perhaps in 800 years, a few people might decide that it would be a good idea to do something about it.

It's going to be dumb insolence and moaning until then.

Yes but a lot of that is due to fact half the country would never agree with the other half and knife them in the back.

I can't ever see our generals taking over :eek:
Just imagine ... all hail Supreme Taoiseach Dermot Early.
First law enacted, Roscommon are awarded the 1980 All Ireland on a technicality.
Kerry players gladly hand back their medals before taking 10 year break in Castlrea.
Roscommon town made new capital and civil service decentralised to Boyle

NewDubliner wrote: »

That was where one society tried to take out another. For example, if things get so bad, that the UK decides to invade us to get our natural resources (and our best looking women).

We could declare war on the US, then they'd have to invade and rebuild our country?

Or we could try and do a 'Switzerland'.

Natural resources?
Are you including the Polish, Latvian, Czech, etc etc women in your list ?

Yeah muich like the way the US are rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan

Actually I believe someone from the London Met (possibly home office etc) once stated that you are only three square meals away (three days) from a mass riot at any time.

So beware if the local chippers close down for three days or more

ejmaztec · 02-02-2009 1:55pm

jmayo wrote: »

Yes but a lot of that is due to fact half the country would never agree with the other half and knife them in the back.

I can't ever see our generals taking over :eek:
Just imagine ... all hail Supreme Taoiseach Dermot Early.
First law enacted, Roscommon are awarded the 1980 All Ireland on a technicality.
Kerry players gladly hand back their medals before taking 10 year break in Castlrea.
Roscommon town made new capital and civil service decentralised to Boyle

Natural resources?
Are you including the Polish, Latvian, Czech, etc etc women in your list ?

Yeah muich like the way the US are rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan

Actually I believe someone from the London Met (possibly home office etc) once stated that you are only three square meals away (three days) from a mass riot at any time.

So beware if the local chippers close down for three days or more

It's not going to collapse now that Micheal Martin's going to sell Ireland to the Arabs. The construction industry will be re-born when the round towers are converted to minarets and New Mecca City is built over the bull-dozed ruins of Limerick.

nhughes100 · 02-02-2009 3:32pm

We're a long way from complete breakdown of society. Even what is going on in Waterford Crystal is fairly tame by some standards. I saw tours going on of the visitor centre while the place was being occupied by workers. In fairness they've got a legitimate beef but unlikely that all of them will be starving or on the streets by Christmans.

There may be a bit of a foreigner backlash as is happening in the UK but do we really see a Rwanda/Serbo-Croat genocide happening just because house and car sales are down? If you've got a job then the recession is fine, interest rates are non existent, sales everywhere, hell even the traffic is lighter.

RealityCheck · 02-02-2009 6:44pm

nhughes100 wrote: »

We're a long way from complete breakdown of society. Even what is going on in Waterford Crystal is fairly tame by some standards. I saw tours going on of the visitor centre while the place was being occupied by workers. In fairness they've got a legitimate beef but unlikely that all of them will be starving or on the streets by Christmans.

There may be a bit of a foreigner backlash as is happening in the UK but do we really see a Rwanda/Serbo-Croat genocide happening just because house and car sales are down? If you've got a job then the recession is fine, interest rates are non existent, sales everywhere, hell even the traffic is lighter.

I think its fair to say this thread is a bit of an overreaction. Protests yes but a break down in society. I dont think so. Well not unless the society of the whole western world does. And even at that we would be the very last:D

conlonbmw · 05-02-2009 4:23pm

Nodin wrote: »

If NTL went tits up, that would probably have a bigger effect than most of the above. Sad, but possibly true....

You are exactly right.

which is very scary

Daroxtar · 05-02-2009 4:53pm

jmayo wrote: »

Yes but a lot of that is due to fact half the country would never agree with the other half and knife them in the back.

I can't ever see our generals taking over :eek:
Just imagine ... all hail Supreme Taoiseach Dermot Early.
First law enacted, Roscommon are awarded the 1980 All Ireland on a technicality.
Kerry players gladly hand back their medals before taking 10 year break in Castlrea.
Roscommon town made new capital and civil service decentralised to Boyle

LMOA. Thanks for snapping me out of the recession

DeVore · 05-02-2009 5:16pm

worst case scenario:
Power is cut to Digiweb. Boards.ie goes off the air. Thousands of angry internet users rise up.... and then sit back down again, panting heavily.

Come on people, this is a joke. We've got some pain to take, its true. Pain we dont deserve and which is the fault of a number of groups but this too will pass and things will bounce. We're not the only ones remember...

DeV.

peasant · 05-02-2009 8:07pm

having said that...

If the power really went (the one that comes out of the socket) for more than a week or so, I'd say you'd have civil unrest then alright.

No hot water, most places without proper heat, food spoiling in the warming freezer, no money from the bank/hole in the wall etc, pp that would quickly do it.

Not going to happen you say?

Let's assume then the governement decided to reverse the recently awarded pay rise to the ESB and they decided to strike for a week ........:D

bk · 06-02-2009 12:05am

ejmaztec wrote: »

Unfortunately, the criminal elements would be well-armed. With a break-down in law and order they would capitalise on that. Does anyone think that a relatively small army would be able to handle that situation?

Yes they would, while we have a relatively small army, they are very well equipped (for their size) and very well trained, in particular with a lot of experience in anti-terrorism and anti-insurgency (watching the provos and unionists for years).

Also don't forget the Gardai know exactly who all the criminals with guns are, they just can't prove it in court, but in a real emergency situation, emergency legislation could be enacted and they would be quickly rounded up by the army and interned.

Also the Gardai aren't as unarmed and inept as many people think they are, I remember a few years ago when there was a blue flu (Gardai on strike), the criminals (well armed dissident republicans actually) thought they would take advantage of it and hold up a armed car and were highly surprised when the ERU, all tooled up, was waiting for them.

The thing is people need to calm down, while the current situation is far from great, we have had far, far worse in the past (great depression, 80's, etc.) and we managed to get through it and we will again.

It isn't like we have been hit by a tsunami, with hundreds of thousands dead, or a famine or a hurricane or a war or many much worse situation.

I think the over-reaction to the current situation just shows how pampered many people in Ireland have become and how blinkered they are to the real suffering and poverty that the majority of the worlds populations live under.

Seriously guys, get a grip.

BornToKill · 06-02-2009 12:36am

We have been here before and it was a lot worse between ESB and bank strikes and society didn't melt down:

Mr. T.J. Fitzpatrick (Cavan): Would the Minister not agree that it would be wholly unreasonable for the ESB to disconnect even one person during the bank strike in view of the fact that they were able to operate for six months during their own strike, stand out of payment and not disconnect anybody during that period?

http://historical-debates.oireachtas.ie/D/0246/D.0246.197005200006.html

It still strikes me as incredible that all the banks could close for that long without prompting a total economic collapse but we muddled through somehow.

nesf · 06-02-2009 1:52am

BornToKill wrote: »

It still strikes me as incredible that all the banks could close for that long without prompting a total economic collapse but we muddled through somehow.

Simple, other groups stepped into the role of the banks: http://www2.bc.edu/~murphyro/EC204/Supps/SuppCh18.pdf

Though whether it could happen today is very much an open question.

BornToKill · 06-02-2009 2:08am

Oh, I remember what happened okay. It's just that it strikes me as incredible. People informally organising and running an alternative banking system for months.

nesf · 06-02-2009 2:11am

BornToKill wrote: »

Oh, I remember what happened okay. It's just that it strikes me as incredible. People informally organising and running an alternative banking system for months.

Well, where do you think the whole financial system came from? People just reverted to the next best assessors of credit. Pretty neat though all right.

Scofflaw · 06-02-2009 3:22am

nesf wrote: »

Well, where do you think the whole financial system came from? People just reverted to the next best assessors of credit. Pretty neat though all right.

Interestingly enough, that was a fall-back to a previously long-held role of publicans. Inns and coaching stations provided exactly such a credit network for much of the Middle Ages.

cordially,
Scofflaw

How long until society collapses

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