Fairyhouse 31st

cson

Presuming this goes ahead after an inspection at 7.30am tomorrow morning.

Fairyhouse - Going: Heavy
1.35 Sports Line will justiafiably go off as a short odds favourite for the Willie Mullins and Paul Townend combination. However while its quite possible Sports Line will break his maiden in this contest, it is possible to make a case for a few here and oppose the favourite. Dessie Hughes stable is in fine form at the minute and Erritt Lake could pose Sports Line some considerable problems should he take to hurdling. Deise Dan is a consistent sort and it would be no surprise to see him in the shake up while both Lismakeery and Lady Roberta both have their merits with the latter especially worthy of note having 10lbs in hand on most of the market principles. The vote goes to Erritt Lake though and it is hoped Paddy Flood can coax a winning debut over hurdles out of the gelding.

Back Erritt Lake 1pt e/w

1.50 A small field go to post for this one and it is hope the Edward O’Grady trained Alexander Severus can oblige albeit at a restrictive price. It is hard to see past the Montjeu 4 year old. Celtic Strand was an impressive 8l winner in Limerick on Wednesday but may find Alexander Severus too big a step up. It’s hard to make a decent case for anything else in the field and a forecast between the top 2 in the market might be worth a punt. Alexander Severus is a deserving Nap of the meeting.

Back Alexander Severus 2pts win NAP

2.55 Johnee Joblot looked very convincing before unluckily running out on Katie Walsh last time out and could make up for that disappointment here. However Shakey Scaffold has come into some kind of form and is worthy of support here with classy claimer Ian McCarthy knocking a valuable 5lbs off in boggy conditions. The bottom weight Mac’s Lad could trouble both of these but Shakey Scaffold is proposed here to complete a double for Dessie Hughes and Paddy Flood at an attractive price.

Back Shakey Scaffold 1pt e/w

2.25 East Beach is the one to watch here I feel. While Hangover could turn in a good performance in the Michael O’Leary silks, the top weight will have it all to do in this 2m4f contest in heavy ground. Charlie Swan’s Curragower is a danger after justifying favouritism in Tramore on New Years day but its hard to look past East Beach who has course and distance form and should by all accounts claim this race for Kevin Coleman and Terence O’Brien.

Back East Beach 1pt win NB

3.25 While the popular support here will be for the wily Tony Martins Glenfolan, I’d feel inclined to make the horse a definite lay. The Paul Carberry partnered charge seems to go best on good ground and the going tomorrow will be bottomless. This I feel will leave the door open for Francis Flood’s Giolla De, who seems to relish the heavy going and should improve for the drop in trip in what is pretty mediocre company. Baregarrow put in some good performances during the summer season but is best watched on this reappearance.

Back Giolla De 0.5pt win

4.00 Flood can complete a quick double with Bronx Girl who is far and away the top rated horse in another mediocre contest. Mouse Morris’ Contessa Messina is one who could improve but is 14lbs worse off to Bronx Girl than the mare should be in this beginners steeplechase. The only fear is whether or not Bronx Girl will get the trip but having run credibly at each end of the scale, one can be confident enough of a good run. Silver Lily could run into the places after a decent performance in Limerick Wednesday last.

Back Bronx Girl 1pt win

4.30 One of the great mystery’s to me is where Willie Mullins gets all his bumper horses. Its quite simply incredible how many classy bumper horses he has going. Its logically hard to look past Morning Supreme who won last time out in Downpatrick but I can’t touch the Mullins horse at such prohibitive odds for the bumper. A shrewder bet would be to look to Paul Nolan’s Golden Sunbird who may give Morning Supreme a good run for it and an each way friendly price.

Back Golden Sunbird 1pt e/w

Good Luck and fingers crossed if you back anything.

fr wishy washy

Good write up,can't see past the fav in the opener.

I think it's highly likely to be off tommorow though:(

wb

I wrote this for betting.betfair.ie so I hope no-one minds me pasting it here.

Let's hope the weather doesn't spoil the day.

***

Wayne Bailey's Irish racing articles have shown a profit of nearly €100 to €10 stakes in 2009 thus far. Read his Fairyhouse tips here...

We kick off with a maiden hurdle for six-year-olds at 1:20 and I'm going to be very brave indeed and click pink for a Willie Mullins hurdler - always a dangerous business these days! Sports Line is a fine horse who's sure to lose the maiden tag very soon, but 2.4 is simply too short in race where a number of horses can put up a big challenge. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with the gelding but if I was backing, I'd be looking for 3.5 or thereabouts so from a value point of view, he must be opposed. One horse that's overpriced in the early markets is Lady Roberta currently trading in double figures. She's a gutsy mare that ran a great race to come second to Square Sphere back in December, and will have no problem with the ground. At such a good price, I'll have her running for me in both the win and place market.


Despite the field being quite small, I've spent ages studying the following hurdle at 1:50, and have now come to the conclusion that it's a no-bet race. Alexander Severus is the obvious choice, but I also believe that Colleoni can improve this season. Throw Celtic Strand into the mix, and this race has me as muddled as a politician talking about the economy. I'll keep my money in my Betfair account here, but the winner may be one for the notebook.


East Beach has 7lbs to contend with after his win here last week, but he should be able to handle the weight, and the ground won't be a problem in the 2:25 novice handicap hurdle. He travelled strongly in that race and had plenty left in the tank on the run-in home. Hangover looks the main threat, and has been performing well in some tricky handicaps this season - however, it looks like the handicapper has him firmly in his grip for this one.


I'm afraid that the 2:55 Easter Festival at Fairyhouse Handicap Hurdle is another no-bet race for me. Johnee Joblot would be my selection if a gun was put to my head and the gelding looked like he was going to put in a good challenge last time out at Thurles before running-out and unseating Katie Walsh. Macs Lad is another with claims, but I think this is a race best watched.


I'm taking a cautious approach in the following handicap chase at 3:25 by backing Giolla De to place only. It's clear that the gelding has ability, but he's a temperamental sort and if he doesn't feel like performing, he simply won't do it. The word on the street is that Flood has been working closely with the horse at home, and connections rate his chances in this contest. In a relatively small field, he should be able to nip a place (if he's having a good day that is!).


It's been a couple of years since we've seen Bronx Girl in the winners' enclosure, but it looks like Francis Flood has made a shrewd decision by entering her in the 4:00 mares beginners' chase. The seven-year-old is a class apart from this motley crew and showed that she still held ability when coming second to Chelsea Harbour at Navan. If she runs to form, she should take this easily enough.


Morning Supreme is the NAP in the concluding bumper, and just in case you've had your head in the sand, Willie Mullins' bumper horses are in flying form of late. This month alone, he's had seven winners from ten races and Morning Supreme was very impressive when going through the gears at Downpatrick, before flying home when finally asked to go.

Fromvert

If I was going to have one bet tomorrow it would be on Johnee Joblot in the 2.55. Fingers crossed it goes ahead tomorrow.
Good write ups lads

wb

Waterlogged.

cson

Shizer.

mike65

Is anyone suprised? Whatsmore the freeze will follow so this meeting has very little chance of ever being staged I'd guess.