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credit ratings downgraded soon

  • 29-01-2009 1:10am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 852 ✭✭✭


    How did the banks manage to **** things up so much?


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    Amazing contribution. Seriously.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 852 ✭✭✭blackgold>>


    You convinced me to stay.
    Now about them banks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 945 ✭✭✭a5y


    Which banks? What happened?
    Did something bad happen?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 271 ✭✭Vadrefjorde


    DUBLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Moody's credit rating agency warned Ireland on Friday it was in danger of losing its prized AAA sovereign debt rating if public finances were badly hit by banking sector woes and a worsening recession.
    The negative outlook echoes a similar warning from Standard & Poor's earlier this month and puts further pressure on Dublin to secure 2 billion euros ($2.57 billion) worth of spending cuts in talks with unions this week

    Irish 5-year credit default swaps hit 262.6 basis points on Friday, indicating a cumulative probability of default of 20.6 percent, according to CMA. Greece was previously seen as the riskiest euro zone debt issuer.
    The yield spread of 10-yr Irish bonds over core German Bunds -- another measurement of risk -- widened to 228 basis points on Friday following Moody's statement, a session high.
    "This is the first negative ratings action Moody's have taken on a euro zone sovereign for years, although they did previously take Belgium off positive outlook

    Source, Reuters

    I would imagine he is referring to this...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 CONOR00


    DUBLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Moody's credit rating agency warned Ireland on Friday it was in danger of losing its prized AAA sovereign debt rating if public finances were badly hit by banking sector woes and a worsening recession.
    The negative outlook echoes a similar warning from Standard & Poor's earlier this month and puts further pressure on Dublin to secure 2 billion euros ($2.57 billion) worth of spending cuts in talks with unions this week

    Irish 5-year credit default swaps hit 262.6 basis points on Friday, indicating a cumulative probability of default of 20.6 percent, according to CMA. Greece was previously seen as the riskiest euro zone debt issuer.
    The yield spread of 10-yr Irish bonds over core German Bunds -- another measurement of risk -- widened to 228 basis points on Friday following Moody's statement, a session high.
    "This is the first negative ratings action Moody's have taken on a euro zone sovereign for years, although they did previously take Belgium off positive outlook

    Source, Reuters

    I would imagine he is referring to this...

    I saw that as well. No surprise either. As I said in another post either the Irish Governemnt introduces responsibility into spending policies in the Irish PS or the IMF will. As these ratings get further downgraded, no banker in their right mind will lend money to the Irish PS. Imagine a banker listening to Union leaders David Beggs, Jack OConnor, and Peter McCloone, asking to borrow money, with their insincere and false promises of new efficiencies to be delivered. Hopefully the bankers will know about the fraud inherent in benchmarking and will ask these guys to put up their own money. The Captains of waste in Ireland woudlnt be seen for dust. At that point the Irish PS runs out of money and the IMF get called in. They fire every second public servant until they get government spending in line with government revenues. They do not allow endless increases in taxes wither because 100 tax is communism. We all know what that leads to; queueing for bread, no fuel, 10 hour economics lectures from the labour party with special guest speakers David Beggs, Peter McCloone, and Jack O Connor, the government news media telling us how the fearless Irish worker will win the struggle, while peter Mc Cloone wines and dines in first class, learning his next speech.

    When I say fraud in benchmarking I am talking about the lies, false promises and misleading statements made by the PS in respect of their intentions to improve working practices and improve productivity in the PS.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    CONOR00 wrote: »
    I saw that as well. No surprise either. As I said in another post either the Irish Governemnt introduces responsibility into spending policies in the Irish PS or the IMF will. As these ratings get further downgraded, no banker in their right mind will lend money to the Irish PS. Imagine a banker listening to Union leaders David Beggs, Jack OConnor, and Peter McCloone, asking to borrow money, with their insincere and false promises of new efficiencies to be delivered. Hopefully the bankers will know about the fraud inherent in benchmarking and will ask these guys to put up their own money. The Captains of waste in Ireland woudlnt be seen for dust. At that point the Irish PS runs out of money and the IMF get called in. They fire every second public servant until they get government spending in line with government revenues. They do not allow endless increases in taxes wither because 100 tax is communism. We all know what that leads to; queueing for bread, no fuel, 10 hour economics lectures from the labour party with special guest speakers David Beggs, Peter McCloone, and Jack O Connor, the government news media telling us how the fearless Irish worker will win the struggle, while peter Mc Cloone wines and dines in first class, learning his next speech.

    When I say fraud in benchmarking I am talking about the lies, false promises and misleading statements made by the PS in respect of their intentions to improve working practices and improve productivity in the PS.
    .... :confused:

    Have you studied previous IMF interventions in sovereign debt restructuring? Firing half of all public servants solves nothing, even they realise that. I'm interested in your claims about borrowings: What proportion of our national debt is a credit line from banks? What proportion of our national debt is held by banks? Since when have banks lent to the Irish Public sector? Since when has the Irish public sector had a credit rating? (As opposed to sovereign credit rating.)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 CONOR00


    .... :confused:

    Have you studied previous IMF interventions in sovereign debt restructuring? Firing half of all public servants solves nothing, even they realise that. I'm interested in your claims about borrowings: What proportion of our national debt is a credit line from banks? What proportion of our national debt is held by banks? Since when have banks lent to the Irish Public sector? Since when has the Irish public sector had a credit rating? (As opposed to sovereign credit rating.)

    Economist
    Ok, I think you probably know more than I do, judging from your other posts. I am willing to learn. Here's what I know to be true, though always willing to be corrected.

    The Irish governement/PS decides taxation and spending levels and borrowings as required. The Irish government sells bonds to international investors to fund borrowings for the operation of the public sector on the basis the loans and interest will be repaid. In 2009, the government/PS will spend 55 Bn and will take in 35 Bn, leaving it 20 Bn short. They hope to save 2Bn in spending, so they will have to borrow 18Bn or more in 2009, and also in 2010, 2011 etc. Borrowing for productive successful investments can be funded I imagine, as there is a good chance (but no guarantee) money can be made, but borrowing to shore up salaries, pensions and job security for public servants to run wasteful PS organisations (CIE, ESB, HSE, ETC., ETC) will not generate returns necessary to repay loans. (52 porters paid from public funds in a Limerick hospital, and one turns in for work on one occassion last year, does not generate wealth it wastes it). Furthermore, if O' Connor, McCloone, and Beggs really get into their stride calling for go slows, strikes etc., then the country ceases to function and cannot repay loans.

    We have entered a new era economically, as Im sure you know better than I, where debt is not funded as easlily as before. The credit rating agencies have woken up and have already started to downgrade Ireland's debt making it more difficult (more expensive) to borrow in future. At some point difficult becomes impossible as international lenders no longer wish to fund Irish debt. Borrowing at a rate of 18 Bn per year in my view makes difficult into impossible within I guess 2 - 3 years. At that point the government has so much debt racked up and so much disarray in the economy that its borrowing capacity is nil. What it still has, however, is a bloated, overpaid and overprotected public sector, which it can no longer pay for. At that point the country's credibility that it can run its own affairs is lost and someone has to take over.

    That is what I think the IMF do, and the first step is to make huge cuts in the public sector. If you can show me where I am wrong please do so. I am willing to learn.

    The alternative is to make the necessary cuts in public spending now. In my opinion, 2 Bn is the very least that needs to be achieved immediately to avoid the scenario described above. Further cuts of 4 Bn are planned for next year and need to be delivered. I would argue that these cuts are needed rather than tax increases. The private sector is reeling and the last thing it needs are extra taxes. However, it was no surprise but nonetheless annoying, to hear public servants (the central bank) arguing that the current level of Government/ PS spending should shored up with tax increases.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    CONOR00 wrote: »
    The Irish governement/PS decides taxation and spending levels and borrowings as required. The Irish government sells bonds to international investors to fund borrowings for the operation of the public sector on the basis the loans and interest will be repaid.
    The debt is sovereign debt, which is distinct from "public service borrowing." What collateral can the public sector produce? :p An example is national development finance agency and capital projects, not borrowing to fund wages. The NTMA controls government finance allocation to semi-state bodies (borrows on behalf of, for example, the HFA), I've not heard of a public sector department borrowing in its own right.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    In 2009, the government/PS will spend 55 Bn and will take in 35 Bn, leaving it 20 Bn short. They hope to save 2Bn in spending, so they will have to borrow 18Bn or more in 2009, and also in 2010, 2011 etc.
    They’re projecting net current expenditure to be €49bn and net capital expenditure to be ~€10bn, in 2009. They’re hoping not to borrow ~€18bn a year. The only information we have on future borrowings is the “Addendum to the Irish Stability Programme Update,” which proposes to save €2bn, €4bn, €4bn, €3.5bn, €3bn, in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Can we borrow ~€18 a year? As Colm McCarthy said, “who wants to find out?” I'd advise to take a look at it on the Dept. of Finance site.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    Borrowing for productive successful investments can be funded I imagine, as there is a good chance (but no guarantee) money can be made, but borrowing to shore up salaries, pensions and job security for public servants to run wasteful PS organisations (CIE, ESB, HSE, ETC., ETC) will not generate returns necessary to repay loans. (52 porters paid from public funds in a Limerick hospital, and one turns in for work on one occassion last year, does not generate wealth it wastes it). Furthermore, if O' Connor, McCloone, and Beggs really get into their stride calling for go slows, strikes etc., then the country ceases to function and cannot repay loans.
    Of course I agree with borrowing to fund capital investment only, i.e. a good rate of return. You can argue that education and health care, even their wages, are capital investment and not waste. Health and Education are the largest areas of expenditure in the wages and salaries bill. Borrowing for current expenditure is generally frowned upon, but we would have a current budget deficit anyway because we have large transfer programmes, e.g. unemployment benefit. This is true for all of Europe—these type of injections of cash are called automatic stabilisers, and are mini-stimulus packages on their own.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    We have entered a new era economically, as Im sure you know better than I, where debt is not funded as easlily as before. The credit rating agencies have woken up and have already started to downgrade Ireland's debt making it more difficult (more expensive) to borrow in future. At some point difficult becomes impossible as international lenders no longer wish to fund Irish debt. Borrowing at a rate of 18 Bn per year in my view makes difficult into impossible within I guess 2 - 3 years. At that point the government has so much debt racked up and so much disarray in the economy that its borrowing capacity is nil. What it still has, however, is a bloated, overpaid and overprotected public sector, which it can no longer pay for. At that point the country's credibility that it can run its own affairs is lost and someone has to take over.
    I agree with the point of stressed capital markets. This thread has some discussion on bond markets, and in particular, the increased level of borrowings by the large countries this year. For example, Germany has an estimated issuance of €323bn in debt this year, and the U.S. has ~€2.5tn. Large countries are squeezing emerging markets, and the smaller nations. There’s a graph in that thread, from the ECB monthly bulletin, with projections of long-term interest rates benchmarked against government debt. With probable deflation, i.e. a lowering of interest rates later in the year, the rise in rates is quite dramatic. I'll attach Germany's expected issuance in a pdf, I can't find the link. My point is that banks aren't the sole source of funding for our bonds; they accounted for approx. 25% of purchasers of the issuance in December 2008, if I recall correctly.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    That is what I think the IMF do, and the first step is to make huge cuts in the public sector. If you can show me where I am wrong please do so. I am willing to learn.
    If you want an interesting read about IMF austerity programs (massive cuts in spending, et cetera) then I heartily recommend Joe Stiglitz’s Globalization and its Discontents, and Making Globalization Work; there's also a review by the World Bank on conditionality for loans, which was quite negative, and holds true for the analogous IMF approach. If you look at recent IMF actions, e.g. Iceland, conditionality was non-existent due to lessons learned from the Asian currency crisis. The fund they’re using to support countries came about from that situation, "Crisis Lending." That level of conditionality, i.e. halving the public sector, isn't really paradigm anymore because of the social unrest it causes, which doesn't play to investors.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    The alternative is to make the necessary cuts in public spending now. In my opinion, 2 Bn is the very least that needs to be achieved immediately to avoid the scenario described above. Further cuts of 4 Bn are planned for next year and need to be delivered. I would argue that these cuts are needed rather than tax increases. The private sector is reeling and the last thing it needs are extra taxes. However, it was no surprise but nonetheless annoying, to hear public servants (the central bank) arguing that the current level of Government/ PS spending should shored up with tax increases.
    Say that we did fire half of all public servants, and assume that wages are uniform enough so that we exactly halve the bill. Now consider that the average public sector wage is around the €40k mark (the actual figure is in one of the public sector threads, or in the ESRI paper I linked in there), so they pay a decent amount of tax. You won’t save the full €10bn, net. Take out income tax, and indirect taxes from consumption by those employees, and then factor in social welfare support for the workers (especially in the current employment environment), you would be lucky to save ~€4-5. A lot of those cuts will land in Education, Police, and Health Care. Not only will you have protests from making ~150,000 people redundant, you’ll also have riots on the streets by people unable to get into hospital and kids not being able to go to school.

    Wages are the primary issue. This paper illustrates the public sector wage premium, and the effect on wage inflation by private sector workers following the public sector. The central bank is reiterating what other macroeconomists have said—read Philip Lane’s paper on the future of Ireland’s fiscal position here. The tax argument is treated in that paper, I think.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 CONOR00


    The debt is sovereign debt, which is distinct from "public service borrowing." What collateral can the public sector produce? :p An example is national development finance agency and capital projects, not borrowing to fund wages. The NTMA controls government finance allocation to semi-state bodies (borrows on behalf of, for example, the HFA), I've not heard of a public sector department borrowing in its own right.

    Interesting. However, whatever the mechanics of the cash flow, the public services/Government is seriously overspending and the shortfall has to be made up from borrowings or higher taxes. The govt will issue sovereign debt and hand over the loans received to the public service who spend it. These laons and interest have to be repaid, so all funding shortfalls end up in higher taxes.
    They’re projecting net current expenditure to be €49bn and net capital expenditure to be ~€10bn, in 2009. They’re hoping not to borrow ~€18bn a year. The only information we have on future borrowings is the “Addendum to the Irish Stability Programme Update,” which proposes to save €2bn, €4bn, €4bn, €3.5bn, €3bn, in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Can we borrow ~€18 a year? As Colm McCarthy said, “who wants to find out?” I'd advise to take a look at it on the Dept. of Finance site.

    I will, thanks for the reference.
    Of course I agree with borrowing to fund capital investment only, i.e. a good rate of return. You can argue that education and health care, even their wages, are capital investment and not waste. Health and Education are the largest areas of expenditure in the wages and salaries bill. Borrowing for current expenditure is generally frowned upon, but we would have a current budget deficit anyway because we have large transfer programmes, e.g. unemployment benefit. This is true for all of Europe—these type of injections of cash are called automatic stabilisers, and are mini-stimulus packages on their own.

    Wages and salaries are not a capital investment, they are a current cost and borrowing money to pay wages is not sustainable, particularly when there is clear evidence of overstaffing and overpaying of staff.
    I agree with the point of stressed capital markets. This thread has some discussion on bond markets, and in particular, the increased level of borrowings by the large countries this year. For example, Germany has an estimated issuance of €323bn in debt this year, and the U.S. has ~€2.5tn. Large countries are squeezing emerging markets, and the smaller nations. There’s a graph in that thread, from the ECB monthly bulletin, with projections of long-term interest rates benchmarked against government debt. With probable deflation, i.e. a lowering of interest rates later in the year, the rise in rates is quite dramatic. I'll attach Germany's expected issuance in a pdf, I can't find the link. My point is that banks aren't the sole source of funding for our bonds; they accounted for approx. 25% of purchasers of the issuance in December 2008, if I recall correctly.

    Fair enough, but someone has to provide cash to shore up the shortfall in public service revenues, either in the form of taxes or loans. Lenders will expect the loans and interest to be repaid so loans become taxes. I will deeply resent any increase in taxes, when there is evidence of serious waste, overstaffing and overpaying of staff in the PS
    If you want an interesting read about IMF austerity programs (massive cuts in spending, et cetera) then I heartily recommend Joe Stiglitz’s Globalization and its Discontents, and Making Globalization Work; there's also a review by the World Bank on conditionality for loans, which was quite negative, and holds true for the analogous IMF approach. If you look at recent IMF actions, e.g. Iceland, conditionality was non-existent due to lessons learned from the Asian currency crisis. The fund they’re using to support countries came about from that situation, "Crisis Lending." That level of conditionality, i.e. halving the public sector, isn't really paradigm anymore because of the social unrest it causes, which doesn't play to investors.

    Good point and thanks for the references, I will look at them. However, this is not an excuse for waste in the PS. Only one of 52 porters paid in a limerick hospital bothers to turn in for work on one occassion last year? The OECD cannot establish what HSE managers and administrators are doing, who reports to them, who they report to, what information they should process etc etc. Teachers paid 37% more than teachers in our main trading partner Britain. There is ample scope to cut numbers and pay levels in the Irish PS, and that needs to be done now.
    Say that we did fire half of all public servants, and assume that wages are uniform enough so that we exactly halve the bill. Now consider that the average public sector wage is around the €40k mark (the actual figure is in one of the public sector threads, or in the ESRI paper I linked in there), so they pay a decent amount of tax. You won’t save the full €10bn, net. Take out income tax, and indirect taxes from consumption by those employees, and then factor in social welfare support for the workers (especially in the current employment environment), you would be lucky to save ~€4-5. A lot of those cuts will land in Education, Police, and Health Care. Not only will you have protests from making ~150,000 people redundant, you’ll also have riots on the streets by people unable to get into hospital and kids not being able to go to school.

    Good point. Nevertheless this is not an excuse for waste as discussed above.
    Wages are the primary issue. This paper illustrates the public sector wage premium, and the effect on wage inflation by private sector workers following the public sector. The central bank is reiterating what other macroeconomists have said—read Philip Lane’s paper on the future of Ireland’s fiscal position here. The tax argument is treated in that paper, I think.

    I will do, thanks for the references. Its not just wages though it is also waste. Remember ppars? Or the latest report on Dublin Bus showing waste of 2m euro pa on one route and crazy public transport planning arrangements that lead to empty buses following one another around the streets of Dublin. Yet, the PS unions use their power to prevent private sector transport providers from entering the public transport market. Here's why;

    UK's "Go ahead" (a private sector public transport provider) says it achieved 33,450 passenger journeys per employee (920 million passenger journeys and 27500 employees) in 2008. In contrast CIE achieved 24,600 journeys per employee (288 m passenger journeys and 11700 employees) in 2007 (latest figures I can see on the CIE website). The average pay roll cost per employee in Go Ahead is £29,500, which currently equates to 32,777 euro, whereas the average pay roll cost in CIE is 50,256 euro. Therefore, the UK private sector employee achieves 50% more and is paid 34% less compared to a CIE employee. Or in other words, each employee in Go Ahead costs approx 1 euro per passenger journey while the Union guy in CIE costs 2.

    This would be ok, if CIE provided a first class public transport system and the unionised staff worked effectively and efficiently. Unfortunately they do not, the worst example of its ineptitude as an organisation being the wildcat strikes by highly paid train drivers in Cork last year.

    You can see why private sector workers like my self are becoming increasingly disturbed at what is happening in the public service.

    I appreciate your informed comment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    CONOR00 wrote: »
    I saw that as well. No surprise either. As I said in another post either the Irish Governemnt introduces responsibility into spending policies in the Irish PS or the IMF will. As these ratings get further downgraded, no banker in their right mind will lend money to the Irish PS. Imagine a banker listening to Union leaders David Beggs, Jack OConnor, and Peter McCloone, asking to borrow money, with their insincere and false promises of new efficiencies to be delivered. Hopefully the bankers will know about the fraud inherent in benchmarking and will ask these guys to put up their own money. The Captains of waste in Ireland woudlnt be seen for dust. At that point the Irish PS runs out of money and the IMF get called in. They fire every second public servant until they get government spending in line with government revenues. They do not allow endless increases in taxes wither because 100 tax is communism. We all know what that leads to; queueing for bread, no fuel, 10 hour economics lectures from the labour party with special guest speakers David Beggs, Peter McCloone, and Jack O Connor, the government news media telling us how the fearless Irish worker will win the struggle, while peter Mc Cloone wines and dines in first class, learning his next speech.

    When I say fraud in benchmarking I am talking about the lies, false promises and misleading statements made by the PS in respect of their intentions to improve working practices and improve productivity in the PS.

    ...what a load of slanted rubbish!

    Of course the unions have to do their bit, but what about the Government and IBEC???

    <snip>


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    but what about the Government and IBEC???
    IBEC? Care to elaborate?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 CONOR00


    ...what a load of slanted rubbish!

    Where am I talking slanted rubbish? Please point out where you believe I am wrong in what I say.

    Of course the unions have to do their bit, but what about the Government and IBEC???

    <snip>

    The PS unions have a lot more than a "bit" to do. Your phrase implies that we are all in this together, that social partnership includes all sections of society. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Irish PS has been a major beneficiary of the construction boom as wealth taxes from it were used to fund benchmarking. In return the PS unions promised improvements in productivity, which were never delivered making the benchmarking process a complete fraud, a fraud on private sector taxpayers, that is. Obviously from your point of view benchmarking was wonderful; salary/pension increases above inflation with job security and no requirement to deliver any improvements in return. Anyone who gets that sort of a deal is laughing.

    However, increased costs without improvements in work practice have made the Irish PS a fat, lazy and very expensive organisation. While the construction boom was in place the tax bonanza made the PS excesses unimportant, now that they're gone the PS costs are very much top of the economic agenda in this country. And make no mistake regaining control of government/PS spending is a do or die effort for this country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    CONOR00 wrote: »
    Interesting. However, whatever the mechanics of the cash flow, the public services/Government is seriously overspending and the shortfall has to be made up from borrowings or higher taxes. The govt will issue sovereign debt and hand over the loans received to the public service who spend it. These laons and interest have to be repaid, so all funding shortfalls end up in higher taxes.
    Of course. If we borrow for unproductive purposes then the country loses out in the long-run. Reductions in income taxes were a contributory factor in our boom (1994-2001), no one wants to reduce labour force participation rates, but some increase is inevitable as we can't achieve all the reduction in the deficit from spending cuts alone. Social welfare (transfer spending in general) is equivalent in € terms as the public sector wage and pension bill. I don't know if it's politically possible to cut that part of the budget, to any meaningful extent, at the moment.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    Wages and salaries are not a capital investment, they are a current cost and borrowing money to pay wages is not sustainable, particularly when there is clear evidence of overstaffing and overpaying of staff.
    Spending on education and health care is an investment in human capital. The economic accounting for public sector wages and salaries is our ubiquitous G, or current government expenditure. I think you might be confusing I (investment) and the idea of human capital. I don't really want to drag it off-topic to health economics, it's boring :). Borrowing for the purposes of G is unsustainable, to a greater extent than capital investment (roads, bridges, et cetera) by government, for sure. The state of California, for example, might default on its debt due to an analogous problem.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    Fair enough, but someone has to provide cash to shore up the shortfall in public service revenues, either in the form of taxes or loans. Lenders will expect the loans and interest to be repaid so loans become taxes. I will deeply resent any increase in taxes, when there is evidence of serious waste, overstaffing and overpaying of staff in the PS
    The ideas that I've seen so far, vis-a-vis taxes, have contained some progressive ideas such as, for example, a broader property tax base. Hopefully it will be relatively less cyclical and, thus, help to avoid situations, like the one we're in now, whereby current spending is based on unsustainable revenues from houses constantly changing hands. Taxes will have to increase if people still want the same level of overall services, e.g. large social welfare programs. It's a trade-off that all countries accept in different ways, low taxes and low government spending, or high taxes and high public service provisions.
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    Good point and thanks for the references, I will look at them. However, this is not an excuse for waste in the PS. Only one of 52 porters paid in a limerick hospital bothers to turn in for work on one occassion last year? The OECD cannot establish what HSE managers and administrators are doing, who reports to them, who they report to, what information they should process etc etc. Teachers paid 37% more than teachers in our main trading partner Britain. There is ample scope to cut numbers and pay levels in the Irish PS, and that needs to be done now.
    Well, it's a good idea to cut down on back office staff, like the HSE managers, but I don't know about slashing front line staff numbers. The wages of the public sector, overall, are inflated, to different extents. The government are to blame for overpaid physicians. Any game theorist will tell you not to announce a policy scheme and then begin to negotiate with doctors about that (€€€€€). There are stories of waste in every sector of the economy, though; just look at the number of people posting on boards.ie when they're supposed to be in work :P
    CONOR00 wrote: »
    I will do, thanks for the references. Its not just wages though it is also waste. Remember ppars? Or the latest report on Dublin Bus showing waste of 2m euro pa on one route and crazy public transport planning arrangements that lead to empty buses following one another around the streets of Dublin. Yet, the PS unions use their power to prevent private sector transport providers from entering the public transport market. Here's why;

    UK's "Go ahead" (a private sector public transport provider) says it achieved 33,450 passenger journeys per employee (920 million passenger journeys and 27500 employees) in 2008. In contrast CIE achieved 24,600 journeys per employee (288 m passenger journeys and 11700 employees) in 2007 (latest figures I can see on the CIE website). The average pay roll cost per employee in Go Ahead is £29,500, which currently equates to 32,777 euro, whereas the average pay roll cost in CIE is 50,256 euro. Therefore, the UK private sector employee achieves 50% more and is paid 34% less compared to a CIE employee. Or in other words, each employee in Go Ahead costs approx 1 euro per passenger journey while the Union guy in CIE costs 2.

    This would be ok, if CIE provided a first class public transport system and the unionised staff worked effectively and efficiently. Unfortunately they do not, the worst example of its ineptitude as an organisation being the wildcat strikes by highly paid train drivers in Cork last year.

    You can see why private sector workers like my self are becoming increasingly disturbed at what is happening in the public service.

    I appreciate your informed comment.
    I don't know a lot about Dublin Bus, to be honest. The Economist wrote something about breaking up the Dublin Bus monopoly in the Politics forum, it seemed to make sense. I would just say that, when comparing wages between Ireland and the UK, it's best to consider the nominal figure in purchasing power parity terms (to whatever extent you can do that). I don't doubt the inefficiencies of closed shop work places.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    Has cowan done enough to keep our AAA rating, i seriously doint think so nor do the markets, its only a matter of time before we loose our AAA rating.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    The Irish Times has listed the savings:
    • €1.4 billion on the public service pay bill, the great bulk of which will be achieved through a new pension-related payment to be made by all public servants (including employees of local authorities), with a small element of the total to be secured through reductions in travelling and subsistence rates and other savings. In addition, the increases provided for under the Review and Transitional Agreement with effect from 1st September 2009 and 1st June 2010 will not now be paid on those dates; this will deliver savings of €1 billion in 2010
    • €95 million through a reduction in Overseas Development Aid;
    • €80 million through a general reduction of the order of 8% in all professional fees, for example in the legal and medical areas;
    • €75 million through a reduction in the Early Childcare supplement from €1100 to €1000 per year and a restriction to child under 5.
    • €140 million through general administrative efficiencies and savings, including those arising from the non-payment of the scheduled 1st September pay increase arising under the Towards 2016 Agreement, through further savings in Advertising, PR and Consultancies; and through savings on Defence equipment;
    • €300 million through an across-the-board reduction in the 2009 Budget Exchequer capital allocations; and,
    • We are in a position to reduce the €8.2 billion capital allocation by €300 million because of the fact that we are achieving far more output for less money than was the case in the past due to the fact that competitive tenders for capital projects are coming in at prices 20% less than before. We therefore expect to maintain the level of output on capital projects while achieving this saving.
    Link

    The plan wasn't bad, it could have been worse, it's attempting to address a structural problem. You can read Philip Lane's opinion here.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 169 ✭✭jimboddb


    ranger4 wrote: »
    Has cowan done enough to keep our AAA rating, i seriously doint think so nor do the markets, its only a matter of time before we loose our AAA rating.


    Arent we downgraded anyway, think the ratings are relative anyway. With so many downgrades happening worldwide does it really matter?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    [/SIZE] The plan wasn't bad, it could have been worse, it's attempting to address a structural problem. You can read Philip Lane's opinion here.

    Seems fair enough. However they will have to do the same (or more) again next year and the year after.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    Diarmuid wrote: »
    Seems fair enough. However they will have to do the same (or more) again next year and the year after.
    True, they have to find double that amount next year, which can't all come from the public sector. They really need to issue more information than the "addendum."

    On a more general note about our borrowings, the exchequer figures for January have been released. Find them here (pdf). ~19% decrease in tax revenue, in comparison to January '08.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    True, they have to find double that amount next year, which can't all come from the public sector. They really need to issue more information than the "addendum."

    On a more general note about our borrowings, the exchequer figures for January have been released. Find them here (pdf). ~19% decrease in tax revenue, in comparison to January '08.

    Not so sure about that. I went through the budget figures from the budget.gov site from 2002 and the increases are stunning:

    pub?key=pzcsCLFvURLWO5dSWjO2kbg&oid=2&output=image

    That's a 10% year on year increase.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    Diarmuid wrote: »
    Not so sure about that. I went through the budget figures from the budget.gov site from 2002 and the increases are stunning:

    [...]

    That's a 10% year on year increase.
    I think we have our wires crossed. I meant public sector, as in public sector wage and pensions bill can't contribute €4bn. I think I already mentioned, in this thread, transfer payments should be looked at. Social Welfare payments will increase during a recession anyway, but you could trim that in light of deflation and falling wages. Good point, though.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 393 ✭✭hedgeh0g


    Im interested in everyone’s opinion


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    CONOR00 wrote: »
    However, increased costs without improvements in work practice have made the Irish PS a fat, lazy and very expensive organisation. While the construction boom was in place the tax bonanza made the PS excesses unimportant, now that they're gone the PS costs are very much top of the economic agenda in this country. And make no mistake regaining control of government/PS spending is a do or die effort for this country.

    Oh, you are so funny man - you should become a comedian!!! :D

    So the private sector (you seem to be very general in you comments mind you!) is a shining example is it???

    ...like the M50 upgrade works (Phase 1); :rolleyes:

    ...like the great customer service in much of the retail sector, not to mention prices; :rolleyes:

    ...like many overpriced and sub-standard restaurants; :mad:

    ...like so many goods that keep on breaking down (like cars etc); :mad:

    ...like many commercial building projects that seem to take longer and longer - would the Pavillions in Swords and Scotch Hall in Drogheda come to mind? :rolleyes:

    ...like so many services (ie. dentists and key cutters etc) where service charges are totally excessive; :mad:

    ...oh, but this is the great and mighty private sector...

    ...GET A GRIP MAN!!! :mad:

    Of course parts of the public sector is in need of major reform, but so too is the private sector!

    Regards!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    On the subject of downgrades: Russia's debt was downgraded today, from BBB+ to BBB, by Fitch.

    http://www.fitchratings.com/corporate/ratings/issuer_content.cfm?issr_id=80442228&sector_flag=5&marketsector=1&body_content=pr_list


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    Diarmuid wrote: »
    IBEC? Care to elaborate?

    IBEC is the organisation that represents major Irish businesses and employers!

    Can I be any clearer??? :rolleyes:

    Regards!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    Oh, you are so funny man - you should become a comedian!!! :D
    The point of this forum is for intelligent debate. We left the school yard years ago; don't insult other posters.
    Of course parts of the public sector is in need of major reform, but so too is the private sector!
    Of course the private sector needs reform. The private sector is a hugely decentralised machine consisting of thousands of companies and owners. All of the public sector are ultimately responsible to fifteen ministers. Reform in the public sector ultimately thus comes down to fifteen elected officials, and these people must force that change.

    On the other hand, the private sector will reform itself by the market. Sub-standard restaurants will go out of business. People will naturally lose their jobs because they're not generating enough profit, or at least accept lower profits because the economy is in the hole. This will not happen with the HSE or the Department of Education because they don't lose their jobs if there's not enough money coming in. That's why public sector reform is on the agenda; it has to be forced.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 CONOR00


    Oh, you are so funny man - you should become a comedian!!! :D

    Unfortunately, the current situation is no laughing matter. It will get worse, and dont think the power of the unions will make the PS immune from the imminent crash. Look out.
    So the private sector (you seem to be very general in you comments mind you!) is a shining example is it???

    ...like the M50 upgrade works (Phase 1); :rolleyes:

    I heard that it was only when the private sector took over the road building that projects were completed on time and on budget. This was why the projects were done privately.
    ...like the great customer service in much of the retail sector, not to mention prices; :rolleyes:

    In the private sector, if you are not satisfied with one retailer you can try another or you can buy goods abroad on line. Contrast this with buying goods from the public sector. If bus and train services in Dublin are bad, what other company can I switch to? If ESB prices are too high who else do I buy from? If I dont like RTE, can I stop paying the license fee?
    ...like many overpriced and sub-standard restaurants; :mad:

    As per my comment above shop around. In the private sector there are good restaurants with good prices but you have to shop around.
    ...like so many goods that keep on breaking down (like cars etc); :mad:
    My car has not broken down...too often. In fact the private sector has produced so much more and so much better forms of private transportation that most people prefer to use their car to get to work instead of waiting for the union guy in Dublin bus.
    ...like many commercial building projects that seem to take longer and longer - would the Pavillions in Swords and Scotch Hall in Drogheda come to mind? :rolleyes:

    No they wouldnt come to my mind, I dont know anything about them. I had a construction project completed by a private sector operator, it completed on time. Even Bertie Ahern the Union collaborator in the great benchmarking fraud, stated he was dissapointed that the public sector never seems to get the job done on time or on budget, when compared to the private sector who seemed to deliver most of the time.
    ...like so many services (ie. dentists and key cutters etc) where service charges are totally excessive; :mad:

    These are good union people...did you not know that? The dentists and pharmacists are fully unionised and reject any reductions in pay or fees from Government. They play rough too if there is any attempt to reduce fees, like not serving medical card holders. They must have learned at the feet of David Beggs, Peter McCloone, Jack O Connor, Michael Halpenny.
    ...oh, but this is the great and mighty private sector...

    ...GET A GRIP MAN!!! :mad:

    Not sure I know what you mean here.
    Of course parts of the public sector is in need of major reform, but so too is the private sector!

    Regards!

    Not parts of the PS is in need of major reform, all of it is.

    What parts of the private sector are in need of reform and what kind of reform do you have in mind?

    In broad terms can I suggest that you have missed the point. Competition in the private sector means you can shop around. PS monopolies, Dublin Bus, CIE, Dublin Airport, ESB, HSE, ETC ETC on the other hand have a captive market and do not care about the customer, where else can they go? This engenders a lazy, unresponsive attititude. Example:

    In 2008, I asked an post to redirect mail, which they did. When it finished they had my mail posted return to sender rather than to the original address as the procedure states should happen. I had bank statements posted return to sender and my bank account was frozen. I rang an post to get it sorted out and guess what? Nothing happened. I had to ring again two weeks later and had to send a test mail to check these guys were doing their job. And I am paying for their guaranteed pensions?

    Unjust and unfair and in bad need of major reform. Given the reform did not happen in the good times, although promised in return for benchmarking, it is clear there is an attitude of sod the customer and the taxpayer in the PS. It will require a good washout to correct this, as might be provided shortly courtesy of this upcoming economic catastrophy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭foundation10


    jimboddb wrote: »
    Arent we downgraded anyway, think the ratings are relative anyway. With so many downgrades happening worldwide does it really matter?

    The day we took over Anglo a downgrade was inevitable


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭conlonbmw


    Whats the point in trying to cutback when they clearly haven't a clue.

    2 ministers flew to Texas to see M Dell.

    Cost of 2 flights (same day), should be 3k, was 200k gov jet.

    Dell leaving Ireland, gov pays 60% of all redunancy costs, how does that work.

    We are all aware of the waste, FAS, Quango, Decentralisation, Voting machines, tunnels to nowhere, dulpicate agencies, 166 TD's, 350,000 state employees, and we still need consultants.

    How do we need 1 in 5 working people to be employed by Gov.

    We need to stop the waste first and then sort out the rest.

    Education, childcare, Health and Social services for young children should be completely redesigned by experts from countries that have it implemented properly, and that is where we should be spending our money.

    We do not need 166 TD's, or a president, or a senate, or 26 identical different departments in every county.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    conlonbmw wrote: »
    Whats the point in trying to cutback when they clearly haven't a clue.

    2 ministers flew to Texas to see M Dell.

    Cost of 2 flights (same day), should be 3k, was 200k gov jet.

    Dell leaving Ireland, gov pays 60% of all redunancy costs, how does that work.

    We are all aware of the waste, FAS, Quango, Decentralisation, Voting machines, tunnels to nowhere, dulpicate agencies, 166 TD's, 350,000 state employees, and we still need consultants.

    How do we need 1 in 5 working people to be employed by Gov.

    We need to stop the waste first and then sort out the rest.

    Education, childcare, Health and Social services for young children should be completely redesigned by experts from countries that have it implemented properly, and that is where we should be spending our money.

    We do not need 166 TD's, or a president, or a senate, or 26 identical different departments in every county.

    agree, ministers expensis is another burden for the taxpayer, jackie healy rae claims over 80k expensis a year and travels to work on a train on a free oap travel pass, its about time a full independant audit is made on ALL government expenditure and the WASTE cut out.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Education, childcare, Health and Social services for young children should be completely redesigned by experts from countries that have it implemented properly, and that is where we should be spending our money.

    Which are these countries and do they have less than 1 in 5 working people employed by Gov?


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