Cheltenham Trials 24th Jan - Advice

cdb

Lads,

A few of us here in work are off to Cheltenham for the first time on Saturday on the back of our winnings from the weekly punts.

We're pretty much novices but I reckon that shouldn't stop us making the most of it.....

So we're looking at a couple of horses, what do you think of these?

Punchestowns in the 3.45

Hennessy, in the 1.30 & 2.05


http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,293119,00.html


Opinion and suggestions welcome please. By the way, I'm new around here so go easy

Caibre

Mate you'll have a cracking time there. A few to keep an eye on would be :

Diamond Harry in the first.
Punchestown 3.45 and Walkon in the 5th.

Good luck.

MrDap

Myself and afew of the lads are making the trip across to,hopefully the card gets the go ahead as I've been hearing it could be in doubt.

Punchestown will likely be a silly price so i'd take a chance on No Refuge, liked his run last time out and he's currently 16's.

My banker of the meeting would have to be Halcon Genelardais in the Cotswold. He ran a gallant race last time out and was a fair performance to give Notre Pere weight and get within 7 lengths of him,he'll have his conditions and can see him galloping them into the ground.

cdb

Cheers Caibre, looking forward to it no end.

Walkon looks on solid form alright. Might be worth a few bob on the day.

Thanks MrDap. We'll have to keep an eye out for you lot so. What sort of ground would suit Halcon Genelardais, assume it will be soft out there on Saturday.

Either way lets hope the weather holds. Believe it takes a lot for Cheltenham to be abandonded and the forecast looks promising depending on where you look...

careca

cdb wrote: »

Hennessy, in the 1.30 & 2.05

If hennessy wins the 1.30, dont back him in the 2.05

Have a ball. I can't wait for March, going for first two days.

Presenting copper in the last.

cdb

not sure why he's down for both of those, is it because he might still be running by the time the 2.05 starts :pac:

The festival will be fantastic Careca, the real deal. You jammy sod!!

thanks for the advice lads, keep it coming, we're hoping to have more than one winner on the day

corny

Wouldn't be rushing to back Punchestowns at the likely odds. Maybe Blazing Bailey might be a bit of value. Ran a good race in this last year behind Inglis Drever. I'd take Reve De Sivola to reverse form with Walkon in the juvenile race too. He's improved at least stone with every run and i think he'll improve again. Add to that as a maiden he's getting 7lbs this time.

Anyway should be a good weekend, have a good one.

cdb

Thanks Corny. we'll keep an eye on those. Its supposed to stay dry so we could be in for a cracking bit of racing. Enjoy!

NewApproach

In the 2.35 I really fancy Halcon Genelardais, the race conditions really suit him, and I reckon he will be around 5/2. He loves soft ground and he will get it tomorrow thats for sure!

The 3.45 I thing Blazing Bailey is a great ew bet at around 8s. He goes on any ground and has proved he is a very good horse in the past (beat Inglis Drever in this race a few years ago) and with the blinkers back on there is every chance he could spark up again.

Nothing really stands out on the rest of the card, it will be a shock if Diamond Harry doesn't win the first, but he is a very short price.

Best of luck, and most of all, enjoy the day!!

RichieLawlor

Tidal Bay in the L+C Chase, last seasons star novice, must win here if he is to go back to th festival, Ladbrokes 13/2 is HUGE

Bluetonic

Some very good racing today in Cheltenham, nice for a change given the inclement weather we've been having lately.

Not too many pointers to the festival races from today, quite a number of the races were very tight and leave a number of horses with chances in their festival races.

mdwexford

I think there was plenty of pointers today, we found out that 2 festival favourites in Diamond Harry and Punchestowns wont be winning at the festival (i had a feeling this was the case even before today).

Big Bucks was very impressive and is making me rethink my plan to back Kasbah Bliss for the World Hurdle.

Star De Mahaison travelled like a dream and if today didnt take too much out of him he could the one to fill 3rd spot in the Gold Cup.

Big Fella Thanks has to have a cracking chance in the 4 miler after todays effort.

Walkon will win the Triumph Hurdle.

All in all, an interesting day.

00dyel

Walkon won really well, giving weight away, might come down to a match between Walkon and Zaynar, stick with Reve De Sivola to run a place in a faster run race.

Diamond Harry was hanging a lot, which would put me off backing him at Cheltenham.

Joe Lively won, but would need the same ground to have an E/W shout in Gold Cup, Tidal bay probably didnt stay, Star De Mohaison probably because of the ground.

Punchestown lost but is the one to back at Cheltenham now, off level weights will surely reverse the form with Big Bucks, Fair along ran well but i think Kasbah Bliss will probably have the final place.

Presenting Copper won as tipped by careca, but is a real mud lover and would need same conditions.


Elsewhere Chomba Womba got beat but in a slow run race, i think she is now value at 13-2 for DN Mares Hurdle. Faster race should suit.

Big Fella Thanks won however did make a few mistakes and over 4m at Cheltenham mistakes will be much more costly.


TIPS FOR TOMMOROW.

14:35 Ayr

Brackenmoss

Hexham
14:45 Bold Ransom (note is entered at Ayr in a chase as well)

careca

careca wrote: »

If hennessy wins the 1.30, dont back him in the 2.05

Have a ball. I can't wait for March, going for first two days.

Presenting copper in the last.

So long since I had a winner, I nearly had to check what to do with a winning docket. hope our lad heading over had a euro or two on.

Bluetonic

mdwexford wrote: »

I think there was plenty of pointers today, we found out that 2 festival favourites in Diamond Harry and Punchestowns wont be winning at the festival (i had a feeling this was the case even before today).

I think that as heavy going is the least likely going for the festival (based on previous festivals -1989 was the last time the festival saw heavy ground), we didn't really get any pointers.

Mikael D'Haguenet/Hurricane Fly/Cousin Vinny (if he jumps) I feel would make mince meat out of Diamond Harry alright, but Punchestown still has big claims with good to soft ground.

corny

I actually think Tidal Bay was the one to take out of today. In a race not run to suit in ground he hated i think it was a fantastic performance. He'll win the Ryanair if he doesn't make too many mistakes.

Still think Walkon won't win the Triumph too.

Bluetonic

corny wrote: »

I actually think Tidal Bay was the one to take out of today. In a race not run to suit in ground he hated i think it was a fantastic performance. He'll win the Ryanair if he doesn't make too many mistakes.

Made a number of them yesterday but was ridden well by Denis O'Regan.

I have him in my Tote Ten To Follow, but I though he would have had a few races under his belt by now.

meriwether

mdwexford wrote: »

I think there was plenty of pointers today, we found out that 2 festival favourites in Diamond Harry and Punchestowns wont be winning at the festival (i had a feeling this was the case even before today).

Big Bucks was very impressive and is making me rethink my plan to back Kasbah Bliss for the World Hurdle.

Star De Mahaison travelled like a dream and if today didnt take too much out of him he could the one to fill 3rd spot in the Gold Cup.

Big Fella Thanks has to have a cracking chance in the 4 miler after todays effort.

Walkon will win the Triumph Hurdle.

All in all, an interesting day.

Why so with Punchestowns?

He is weighted to win the next day, and will more than likely had better ground.

mdwexford

meriwether wrote: »

Why so with Punchestowns?

He is weighted to win the next day, and will more than likely had better ground.

Not really, did you think Big Bucks was all out to beat him, i reckon he had more in the tank and i wouldnt be confident of Punchestowns reversing the form at the festival to be honest. I thought his price was silly before the weekend, its a bit more realistic now but id have BB or Kasbah Bliss ahead of the Henderson horse for sure.

cdb

Lads, needless to say we ball, it was a great experience. The course is fantastic, the staff are really friendly & the weather couldn't have been better. We can't wait to go back.

We had a few early winners as a group with Diamond Harry & Ping Pong, so we we're able to put the nerves to rest, relax & enjoy the day. Walkon & Joe lively followed up the early wins so all-in it wasn't too shabby.

Presenting Copper in the last saved my bacon, so give yourself a pat on the back careca

As luck would have it our Brasillian taxi driver dropped us off at the wrong pub afterwards where the owner insisted on plying us with free booze so he would have an unfair advantage on the fussball table, no complaints here though If you ever find yourselves on the lookout for a decent pub in Cheltenham be sure to check out the Conservatory. But one word of warning: mind the stairs!

Many thanks to all for their contributions, very much appreciated. Now roll on the festival

meriwether

mdwexford wrote: »

Not really, did you think Big Bucks was all out to beat him, i reckon he had more in the tank and i wouldnt be confident of Punchestowns reversing the form at the festival to be honest. I thought his price was silly before the weekend, its a bit more realistic now but id have BB or Kasbah Bliss ahead of the Henderson horse for sure.

Id have KB ahead of Punchestowns, but Punchestowns ahead of BB.
The 8lb swing in weights plus better ground will be enough to reverse it, though I take your point about BB pssibly not being extended to win.

Plentyofice

He has ran 4 times over hurdles and is undefeated. The first 3 times he never came off the bridle. He average winning distance is 8-10lengths. Clearly before the race on Saturday Nick Williams said “He’s actually a little bit light and he is not in his coat” which means he is not 100% . He still won. That’s a maiden , 2 Grade 2’s and a grade 1 he has won. Straight after the race Timmy Murphy being interviewed said “He just didn’t feel like himself today.” He still won. !! “Sometimes he is going that fast it is frightening”. This from the jockey of Well chief !!!
His win was not impressive on Saturday, more workmanlike and he had to fight……and he did. Kauto Star, Hardy Eustace, Sublimity, Katchit, Desert Orchid all suffered the same fate.....One baddish or bad run and they're ****e.
Yes he is quirky, but so was Gorgeous George and Istabraq
Here’s the key points they are overlooking. In his last 2 races

1. At Newbury Mike Cattermole clearly states mid race “You get the real impression Diamond Harry wants to go a half stride faster”. After last Saturday’s race Timmy Murphy being interviewed says “ There was a great pace until halfway and then it slowed to a crawl. I should have moved up to Ruby to keep up the gallop”. Come Cheltenham you will be guaranteed to get a gallop.!!!!
2. He has been running in races with relatively small fields and people are saying he won’t get the argy bargy of a big field at Cheltenham. In his first 3 races there were 21, 14 and 15 respectively !!

Personally I think it's way too early to write him off. Still a huge fan.

mdwexford

Dont get me wrong i think Diamond Harry is a talented horse and could be a smashing chaser next season if he jumps and he clearly has an engine. What i am saying is that i think he is a cracking lay for the Ballymore Properties hurdle.

My reasons are as follows, he is still green as anything, he lugged all over the shop at Cheltenham on saturday, perhaps because he was isolated on the other side of the track but its still a worry. He does not jump well at all, he strikes me as a big awkward clumsy lumbering horse much in the vein of Keen Leader or Aran Concerto, recent fancied horses for the same race who on the day found things happening much too fast for them. I also dont think he has much tactical speed and could find himself in trouble when the pace quickens at the business end of the race.

Its only going to take one bad jump, the pace to quicken at the wrong time for him or him to even lug across the track on the way up the hill to ruin his chance. Thats not even taking into account the fact he may not be the best horse in the race and i think at 5 on Betfair at the moment id rather be a layer than a backer.

Plentyofice

I'd certainly take him at 5's. Some good points but he is actually a good jumper. Can't remember when he ever ploughed through a fence ?. Yes, he is a very quirky character but I can't help thinking that the bigger the field and faster pace the better. He has a very odd running style alright.
Good points about Aran Concerto and Keen Leader but if you look at what the Diamond has beaten. He has had an absolute plethora of horses he's beaten that have all won a few races after.

Riverside Theatre
Shalone
Hectors Choice
Finney
Junior


The form is pretty rock solid. Not being one to knock our own but I don;t think we have anything except possible Cousin Vinny to him.

All of this is pure IMO.;)

careca

I said it before and I'll say it again I can't see Cousin Vinny going for the Ballymore. He won the bumper over 2 and I reckon he will stay over 2.

Plentyofice

:DGood. It'll save him getting the Sh1t bet out of him by the Diamond

mdwexford

I think Cousin Vinny will go for the Ballymore and Hurricane Fly will go for the Supreme Novices, the former always struck me as a stayer and i think it would suit him better. Hurricane Fly looks a real speedball with a turn of foot to me and i cant see him being beaten in the opener.

fwiw ill be taking whatever Mullins horse runs and Mad Max against the field in the Ballymore, even though i have MM in much the same bracket as Diamond Harry hes over 3 times the price at the moment and looks the forgotten horse of the race to me.

Plentyofice

I agree with MDwexford. It looks very much like WPM has an abundance of talent but the chances of him taking the 2 races and the bumper ?? Nah.
Every now and again a freak comes along. I've been lucky to catch a few at the beginning stage (New Approach, Georgeous George, Istabraq and the lesser Roll along).
Diamond is a freak that I get the impression has so much in the tank. Come Cheltenham it'll be 1. Diamond, 2 The nightingale, 3 Shalone in a time of 4.55.3. SF 43.24 Exacta 32.40. Tricast 1212.06. :pac::D

careca

mdwexford wrote: »

I think Cousin Vinny will go for the Ballymore and Hurricane Fly will go for the Supreme Novices,

Prop bet. If Cousin Vinny goes for the Supreme you put a tenner on for me, if he goes for the Ballymore, I'll put one on for you. If he wins (either) we can pay up at some poker event or we can transfer it or something???

mdwexford

careca wrote: »

Prop bet. If Cousin Vinny goes for the Supreme you put a tenner on for me, if he goes for the Ballymore, I'll put one on for you. If he wins (either) we can pay up at some poker event or we can transfer it or something???

Deal.

stretchaq

I still think Willie will have hurricane fly lining up in the champion hurdle!!!!!!;)

amoss

NA no chance he'll line up in that,hell go to the supreme novice and take sumbeating,do you fancy anyting strong 4 the festival?

amoss

Think you could be rite,diamond looks a monster of a horse,is he your nap?

stretchaq

Ebadiyan for the triumph is the bet of the meeting IMO:D