Pull yourself together

pgroarke

Am I the only optimist left.
I believe Ireland will do relatively well (vis a vis other countries) weathering the recession.

Our 2 biggest export earning industries are IT and Pharm.
Both are relatively unscathed by the downturn.
(Before anyone mentions Dell, the 1900 jobs lost there were manufacturing / assembly jobs lost to Poland for 3e an hour - fair play to the govt for retaining the R&D hi value jobs).
People still need their viagra and their software services even in a recession.

Yes the building industry was unsustainable.
So what ? Eventually it will be sustainable.
Many individuals and smaller companies will finally be able to afford a property.

Yes it was a large chunk of govt revenue.
So what ? The govt will have to cut expenditure.

Compare our situation to the UK where not only has construction faltered but a major industry (financial services) has been destroyed.
(Hedge funds and investment banking are effectively no more).

Ireland's progress was originated by FDI type industries (Pharm and IT).
That's our bread and butter.
We've not gone away you know.

pocketdooz

pgroarke wrote: »

(Hedge funds and investment banking are effectively no more)

Nice post but I had to laugh at this line.




.

woodseb

thanks OP for cheering me up.....



(that was hilarious)

Diarmuid

pgroarke wrote: »

Ireland's progress was originated by FDI type industries (Pharm and IT).
That's our bread and butter.
We've not gone away you know.

According to McWilliams (and it should be easy to verify that number) 82% of Irish exports come from 100,000 people (out of 2m). Can you see the problem with your theory?

pgroarke

> According to McWilliams (and it should be easy to verify that number) 82% of Irish exports come from 100,000 people (out of 2m). Can you see the problem with your theory?

I'm afraid I don't follow you, whats your point ?

ZYX

pgroarke wrote: »

Am I the only optimist left.
I believe Ireland will do relatively well (vis a vis other countries) weathering the recession.

.

I was listening to BBC radio this morning and they were discussing how Britain would be by far the worst performing economy in Europe over next few years....... apart from Ireland!

Baird

pgroarke wrote: »

> According to McWilliams (and it should be easy to verify that number) 82% of Irish exports come from 100,000 people (out of 2m). Can you see the problem with your theory?

I'm afraid I don't follow you, whats your point ?

The point being we are not the knowledge based economy you think we are.
Also your point about Dell is ridiculous, there are a further 8k jobs in the greater
limerick area alone who rely on that manufacturing plant, its not just about
those 2k who lost their jobs initially.

Property artificially inflated the economy, we most definintely will not come out
of this recession and do "relatively well (vis a vis other countries)"
We are in the top 3 most screwed countries in Europe, have no clue why you
think otherwise to be honest.

daveirl

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MrMatisse

I.T and pharma are our biggest sectors because the construction industry, which was our biggest sector which generated huge amounts of revenue for the government and employed a very large amount of the population has collapsed. Leaving a trail of huge debts and growing unemployment, hence the pessimism.

pgroarke

Let me paraphrase your responses then.

One of our economies sectors - the building industry - grew unsustainably (this was caused largely by a glut of cheap credit and unregulated lending).

You are worried that the inevitable collapse in this sector has somehow destroyed Ireland.

(1) If there is a huge drop in employment in the building industry then I imagine the 100,000 Poles returning home will reduce the unemployment benefits and demands on other state services that you are concerned about.
That is the whole idea of the Common Market is it not ?

(2) If the government grew addicted to this temporary building windfall (which it looks like they did) then they will have to cut back on public servants salaries as increasing taxes in a downturn is not a good idea.
Not my problem in fact I'm experiencing schaden freud.

(3) Eventually the building industry will be sustainable. Especially given the dropping prices and lower interest rates.

Dont try to bullsh*t me about the Pharmaceutical sector being in difficulty.
I worked there - most of my mates still work there - there is no crisis.

Diarmuid

pgroarke wrote: »

Let me paraphrase your responses then.

DJDC

Dont try to bullsh*t me about the Pharmaceutical sector being in difficulty.
I worked there - most of my mates still work there - there is no crisis.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0121/uniteddrug.html

Mate, you are making a fool of yourself. For your own dignity..please stop.

daveirl

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casey jones

pgroarke wrote: »

> According to McWilliams (and it should be easy to verify that number) 82% of Irish exports come from 100,000 people (out of 2m). Can you see the problem with your theory?

I'm afraid I don't follow you, whats your point ?

I believe this misses a point in relation to the number of service jobs out of the remaining 1.9m that are internationally traded services. While not exporting containers via Dublin port they are bringing in foreign revenue e.g. technical support, software, adminstration, dare we say it financial services etc.

However at this time of crisis, and in keeping with the theme of the OP, I am amazed no one has suggested using the one big string left to our bow..... the Self Aid Concert. Get Christy, Bono and the lads up on stage belting out 'Lets Make It Work'.

Remember the lyrics...

I can build a house
I can dig a hole
I can bend a fuse
I can climb a pole
I can work in factory
I can assemble a tv
I can do anything
Anything you please

ZYX

pgroarke wrote: »

(1) If there is a huge drop in employment in the building industry then I imagine the 100,000 Poles returning home will reduce the unemployment benefits and demands on other state services that you are concerned about.
That is the whole idea of the Common Market is it not ?

There are not 100,000 Poles in the country in the first place. In 2006 there were only 63,000 Poles in the country.

pgroarke wrote: »

(2) If the government grew addicted to this temporary building windfall (which it looks like they did) then they will have to cut back on public servants salaries as increasing taxes in a downturn is not a good idea.
Not my problem in fact I'm experiencing schaden freud.

This is so untrue. The vast majority of the money from the property boom did not go to Civil Servants. It went on things like major increases in Old Age Pensions, unemployment benefit, childrens allowance, health care etc. If the government sacked all public servants today (including all gardai, teachers, doctors, nurses etc) we would still probably have a budget deficit this year. Everything will have to be cut back, not just salaries.

thebang

daveirl wrote: »

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Hi guys this is quite a long winded reply but I think this could be an interesting debate,

While what daveirl is saying is true on a high level, I do have a few counterpoints- I will also discuss a few of the positives I can see -

1. Yes its true that many drugs (Lipitor! Lipitor!) are coming off patent and going generic, but there is a lot you can still do which established entities - greater manufacturing efficiencies, new licensed indications, or drug delivery techniques ( injection to oral, better dosage regimens, etc.) Some nimble companies might find opportunities here.
Its a lot of the big companies (Pfizer), who are still looking for an old style 'Blockbuster' who are looking like dinosaurs. See below.
2. Weak pipelines- I think the best phrase to describe the current situation is 'The low hanging fruit is gone'. I looked at something this summer which showed very good evidence that it is a lot harder to get drugs through trials nowadays.
I think it will be interesting to see how astra zeneca does. they have a stated intention to expand into eastern markets. With new demographics, the some of the most common indications will be different and they may fund projects previously considered economically unviable.
3. Democratic administration - I watched an interview by Paul Krugman at the weekend and he pointed out that Obama has been strangely silent on his health care plans. And remember that the republicans still have enough people in the senate to hold things up - I wouldn't be sure about federal price controls and I wouldn't count any of those f*****rs (even the dems) to be outside the reach of a lobbyist.
Also to counterpoint this, Obama could be good for expanding access to generics, (Teva have gotten huge lately-could it be time to dump Pfizer and buy them instead?).
Biotech is still an expanding field - I dont know too much this area- but companies like genentech have grown strongly in the past few years and there looks to be significant potential.
There are a number of small pharma companies in Ireland which could be very positive for the industry here. Most of them are spinning off Elan, and most are specialists in drug delivery.
I would like to take a good look at Eirgen, but there is not much info on their website
I actually liked AGI Therapeutics, but news on them has dried up lately and their share price is very low. Id like to know whats going on!
Merrion Pharma is strange - some of their products look quite promising eg Orazol
http://www.merrionpharma.com/content/portfolio/mer103.asp
but when they talk about developing oral insulin, I am reminded of the emperors new clothes (They seem to talk as if no-one has tried this before!). Sections of their books looked funny. I would concede though that these companies do not employ the amounts of personnel a Pfizer would,
All in all, I wouldn't say I am bullish on the sector, but I think there is definitely a lot of things still worth watching in the medium to long term, both on the Irish and the International stage. I am not making any firm predictions just yet though
Finally does anyone have any views on the Pfizer/Wyeth merger? Looks like a bit of a disaster to me!

daveirl

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thebang

daveirl wrote: »

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I am with you on a lot of big pharma, but I just made some counterpoints to try and see a path for the industry as I think its an interesting discussion.

Sometimes I think Pfizer could be the new General Motors!


Have you taken a look at AGI and Merrion by the way? If so whats your assessment?